I want to be objective, but...

[101A]

I just don't see it in this series.

Seattle was:

2-8 in their last 10; injuries or not; damn.

3 losses from the 7 SEED.

And has a lineup that I just can't see is a threat AT ALL.
Sure, they've got some talent in a couple of players; but they have noone considered consistently a top 5 or top 10 talent, much less an MVP.

Ray Allen is nice, as is Rashard, but it pretty much ends right there. There next best player is, arguably, Antonio Daniels.

Their board is full of quotes of "chemistry" and great coaching, but this coach doesn't even have enough pull to be under contract after these playoffs end. I know that team suffers from what SA has for years - little exposure, but damn; if he's all that as a coach, wouldn't his own bosses know it?

This a team that stroked it early, and did, in fact cool off; but were in a division where EVERYBODY sucked. Then they drew the only team limping worse and sucking more going into the playoffs, and voila, it's easy pickins for the Spurs in rd. 2.

Rashard Lewis is surely a tough matchup - but he's not Tracy McGrady or Dirk Nowitski - or Shawn Marion for that matter. All other tall, athletic 2's or 3's who the Spurs ultimately deal with.

This team, frankly, plays into the Spurs hands. By their own boards admission they want to play a half court game - and their primary scoring threat is a average size perimeter guy who's head Bowen is ALREADY in!

Other than Duncan's ankle, I see nothing to fear here and no reason to doubt. Give me a reason; point out the matchups I'm not seeing which make this team some kind of a threat over a 7 game series - otherwise it's kind of like watching preseason basketball, cause I know the REAL series ain't here yet - and it's just not fun.

I used to say 5, but now I can't see any reason why it's not:
Spurs in 4.

[2centsworth]

nevermind the spurs have never beaten seattle when seattle was a full strength.

forget they cleaned the spurs clock in seattle when the spurs were on a roll early in the season.

forget seattle put a whopping on the spurs in san antonio when again the spurs were rolling and undefeated at home.

it's going to take a hell of an effort to beat the sonics.

[Kori Ellis]

nevermind the spurs have never beaten seattle when seattle was a full strength.

That's very true, but ...


forget they cleaned the spurs clock in seattle when the spurs were on a roll early in the season.

That was the third game of the season. The Spurs weren't on much a roll yet.


forget seattle put a whopping on the spurs in san antonio when again the spurs were rolling and undefeated at home.

Is a six-point win a "whopping"?

[MadDog73]

nevermind the spurs have never beaten seattle when seattle was a full strength.

forget they cleaned the spurs clock in seattle when the spurs were on a roll early in the season.

forget seattle put a whopping on the spurs in san antonio when again the spurs were rolling and undefeated at home.

it's going to take a hell of an effort to beat the sonics.

Well, do Regular Season games count or not?

The Sonics can obviously beat the Spurs, if the Spurs let them. But this is the Playoffs, NOT the beginning of the season where frankly I don't think the Spurs appreciated the Sonics threats. I know I didn't. At that point, I thought the T-Wolves would make the playoffs!

Now that the Spurs are focused completely on the Sonics, you have to look at who has the better talent? The better coach? The better defense?

I'm not going to say the Spurs can't lose, because they can. But this is the Spurs series to lose, NOT the Sonics to win. And with Champions like Tony, Manu, Tim and Robert on the team I can't see them going down like that.

Spurs in 5.

[zeleni]

if I were a troll, this should be a provocation de luxe.

But really? Carmelo did adjust to Bowen, why wouldn't Allen? Spurs do not need a guy questioning their abillities, and still Sonics should be powerful to win at least a game or two. Radmanovic, Allen, James when clicking should by all figures at some D kick ass. Spurs just kicks ass by far more consistently. So Spurs are bound to win. But in 4?

Here comes the word of TIMVP: Believe!

...like we have a choice... ;)

[2centsworth]

Is a six-point win a "whopping"? at home when the spurs were beating everyone by 20 or more I would say yes. But not a blow out or anything.

[Solid D]

Bench X-Factors are Daniels and Fortson. I expect a major stepping-up of AD's level of play vs. the Spurs. Fortson hasn't been playing as much as earlier in the season but he will probably get more floor time against San Antonio. Nazr should help neutralize him though with his size. Nazr just helps the Spurs in the interior in so many ways.

[MadDog73]

Hmmm, if Daniels is going to be a monster against the Spurs, should we hope and pray that Barry will go out of his way to kill the Sonics?!?

[zeleni]

Bench X-Factors are Daniels and Fortson. I expect a major stepping-up of AD's level of play vs. the Spurs. Fortson hasn't been playing as much as earlier in the season but he will probably get more floor time against San Antonio. Nazr should help neutralize him though with his size. Nazr just helps the Spurs in the interior in so many ways.

Nazr?

This will certainly be Rasho's series.

[CosmicCowboy]

I like this matchup. I agree they have a couple of players offensively that will be hard to contain but if the Denver series proved anything it's that the Spurs can change their game and outscore scoring style teams when necessary...Seattle has some defensive weaknesses that play right into our strengths...We have three backcourt players in Tony, Manu, and Barry (4 if you count Devin) that can put the ball on the floor and penetrate...and the Seattle backcourt doesn't play good enough defense to stop them...and Seattles bigs, although physical aren't that fundamentally sound...and having Tim and Nazr to deal with along with trying to rotate and keep in front of slashers all night should keep them in foul trouble all series...I think Spurs should be able to close this out in no more than 5...

[2centsworth]

Well, do Regular Season games count or not?

The Sonics can obviously beat the Spurs, if the Spurs let them. But this is the Playoffs, NOT the beginning of the season where frankly I don't think the Spurs appreciated the Sonics threats. I know I didn't. At that point, I thought the T-Wolves would make the playoffs!

Now that the Spurs are focused completely on the Sonics, you have to look at who has the better talent? The better coach? The better defense?

I'm not going to say the Spurs can't lose, because they can. But this is the Spurs series to lose, NOT the Sonics to win. And with Champions like Tony, Manu, Tim and Robert on the team I can't see them going down like that.

Spurs in 5.
I'm a spurs homer to the nth degree, but I'm not blindly gonna say the spurs are going to have an easy time of things. Seattle makes me nervous, but so does every other team.

[Solid D]

In the regular season off the bench versus the Spurs:
Game 1 Daniels - 14 pts., 4 A, Fortson 15 pts., 13 reb.
Game 2 Daniels - 14 pts., 4 A, Fortson 14 pts., 6 reb.
Game 3 Daniels - 13 pts., 5 A, Fortson 2 pts., 2 reb.
Game 4 Daniels - 11 pts. 1 A, Fortson DNP ankle

[boutons]

"forget seattle put a whopping on the spurs in san antonio"

BS. In 2nd game @SBC, the first quarter was essentially even, Spurs blew them out in the 3rd qtr, still outscored them in the 4th, but, gotta love the Spurs' consistency, totally collapsed in the 2nd quarter, O and D, losing the game in that one qtr. No way the Sonics whopped the Spurs.

[timvp]

Nazr?

This will certainly be Rasho's series.

Rasho has always struggled versus the Sonics for some reason. It was his play in a Sonics game this year that led to Pop calling him out.


Wondering why Spurs coach Gregg Popovich sat center Rasho Nesterovic the entire second half of Wednesday's 102-96 loss to the Seattle SuperSonics?

It wasn't because Popovich wanted to "go small" against a quicker, smaller Sonics team.

"I thought he was awful," Popovich said. "I just tell the truth. I can't start giving bull, because you forget what bull you gave last week, so I just tell the truth, and if somebody doesn't like it, tough."

Added Popovich before Thursday's game: "I think he's been awful for a couple of weeks. I'm very disappointed in his play. I don't think he's competed well. I think he's played without confidence. He's taken a back door offensively.

"All of a sudden it's like he hit this wall and decided he's going to be a different player than he was last year or even the first part of this season, and I'm not sure why. But if he wants to play he's going to have to compete and I don't think he's done that for a while."

[DannyF]

2-8 in their last 10; injuries or not; damn
They had Rashard out, AD out, and Radmanovich out. They were resting guys getting ready for the playoffs

3 losses from the 7 SEED.
San Antonio was 2 losses away from a 4 seed, so what?


And has a lineup that I just can't see is a threat AT ALL.

Apparently you never watch anything but Spurs games, and you missed the ones where the Sonics beat the Spurs. And since the Kings were obviously a soft team, Ray Allens performance in the 5 game series was a fluke.I am not going to talk smack about the Spurs, you have a great team. But you underestimate the Sonics becasue of your lack of knowledge.

[2centsworth]

"forget seattle put a whopping on the spurs in san antonio"

BS. In 2nd game @SBC, the first quarter was essentially even, Spurs blew them out in the 3rd qtr, still outscored them in the 4th, but, gotta love the Spurs' consistency, totally collapsed in the 2nd quarter, O and D, losing the game in that one qtr. No way the Sonics whopped the Spurs. whopping is probably overstating it, but the spurs lost when they were at home and had every reason to want revenge for the 20 pt loss in seattle.

[Solid D]

If Rasho is more mobile by Sunday, the Spurs would likely be better off starting him again. Nazr as opposed to Malik gives the Spurs a better presence inside.

[mookie2001]

the sonics blow, if you have luke ridnour as your point and are counting on j james playing the best he's ever played, with allen being controlled to carmelo like numbers the sonic will lose
theres no way they are better than the nuggets
spurs in 5

[2centsworth]

They had Rashard out, AD out, and Radmanovich out. They were resting guys getting ready for the playoffs

San Antonio was 2 losses away from a 4 seed, so what?



Apparently you never watch anything but Spurs games, and you missed the ones where the Sonics beat the Spurs. And since the Kings were obviously a soft team, Ray Allens performance in the 5 game series was a fluke.I am not going to talk smack about the Spurs, you have a great team. But you underestimate the Sonics becasue of your lack of knowledge.

the guy who started this thread is crazy. Sonics are a very good team, but the spurs will eventually kick the shit out of them.

[boutons]

"had every reason to want revenge for the 20 pt loss in seattle."

I was really up for that "statement/payback" game. Spurs were 16-0 @SBC, and would have gone undefeated @SBC for Nov/Dec except for that the 2nd qtr.

[mookie2001]

the guy who started this thread was legit
the sonics command respect because this is the 2nd rd of the playoffs and they won to get here, pop wont overlook them and theyll get an asskicking
but if you look at it out of all these teams still left i would pick the sonics to play
they are a weak team compared to a team we'd play in the 2nd round in any other year

[2centsworth]

something about teams that can shoot the three that doesn't mix well with the spurs. maybe it's because they can avoid driving to the hole where they get swallowed up by our bigs.

[td4mvp21]

It comes down to being a better team and playoff experience, and we have got a ton of it. They were just saying that our core group of guys have played over 400 games together, not including the playoffs. We have the team to beat them. Its playoffs and regular season doesn't mean crap. We have TD. I like our chances.

[Brodels]

The Spurs are the better team, but Seattle is just the kind of team that can give San Antonio fits. Ray Allen and Rashard are tough because Bowen really can't defend Rashard as well as he can defend other players. Bowen will do a good job against Allen but Ray will still score some points. Manu, Barry, Devin...whoever defends Lewis could have a tough time. Big Dog will be the x-factor.

And don't underestimate the fact that San Antonio sometimes struggles against jump shooting teams. Add Radman and some others to the mix, and the Sonics can make shots. They have nothing to lose out there and they are likely to play without much pressure on their backs.

The Spurs should win the series, but don't underestimate Seattle's ability to give the Spurs trouble. It can happen.

[CosmicCowboy]

something about teams that can shoot the three that doesn't mix well with the spurs. maybe it's because they can avoid driving to the hole where they get swallowed up by our bigs.

Teams that can and do get hot from the three point line are capable of beating any team in the league on any given night. You aren't alone...Every fan of every team knows his team can be beaten by a hot three shooting team and has seen it happen...the nice thing is that the Spurs are statistically one of the best three point defensive teams in the league and it is almost impossible for a team to get red hot from three point range for 4 out of 7 games...if the Spurs just keep taking care of business they can still prevail in a 7 game series.

[Obstructed_View]

"forget seattle put a whopping on the spurs in san antonio"

BS. In 2nd game @SBC, the first quarter was essentially even, Spurs blew them out in the 3rd qtr, still outscored them in the 4th, but, gotta love the Spurs' consistency, totally collapsed in the 2nd quarter, O and D, losing the game in that one qtr. No way the Sonics whopped the Spurs.

I agree. The Spurs played the first half trying to outscore the Sonics. It worked in the first quarter and then they couldn't get anything to drop in the second. The second half they clamped down on defense and nearly won a game they were out of. That game was a big lesson, and they won't be remotely intimidated by the Sonics.

[GSH]

One really great statement... one not quite so good. First the good one:

Teams that can and do get hot from the three point line are capable of beating any team in the league on any given night.

That is dead-on. I don't think Ray Allen can light it up from the arc through a whole 7-game series. At least I hope he can't.

In their two wins against the Spurs, the Sonics shot .462 and .409 from the 3-point line. Ray Allen was 4-4 and 5-9. In their two losses to the Spurs, they shot .308 and .273. Ray Allen didn't play in the first, and he was 0-3 in the second. The Sonics need the 3 ball against the Spurs. For the points, obviously, but also to spread the defense. I think it is a big key for them.


Now the not so good one:

...the nice thing is that the Spurs are statistically one of the best three point defensive teams in the league

Actually, the Spurs are 25th in the league, when it comes to opponent's 3-point percentage. (Seriously... you can look it up.) That is probably the one stat on the Spurs sheet - other than free throws that have already been discussed - that isn't right up there with the best.

That doesn't match well with the Sonics or the Suns, who both tend to torch it from the 3-point line. The Spurs can adjust. But it won't be a cakewalk series - especially if the 3's start dropping.

[CosmicCowboy]

One really great statement... one not quite so good. First the good one:


That is dead-on. I don't think Ray Allen can light it up from the arc through a whole 7-game series. At least I hope he can't.

In their two wins against the Spurs, the Sonics shot .462 and .409 from the 3-point line. Ray Allen was 4-4 and 5-9. In their two losses to the Spurs, they shot .308 and .273. Ray Allen didn't play in the first, and he was 0-3 in the second. The Sonics need the 3 ball against the Spurs. For the points, obviously, but also to spread the defense. I think it is a big key for them.


Now the not so good one:


Actually, the Spurs are 25th in the league, when it comes to opponent's 3-point percentage. (Seriously... you can look it up.) That is probably the one stat on the Spurs sheet - other than free throws that have already been discussed - that isn't right up there with the best.

That doesn't match well with the Sonics or the Suns, who both tend to torch it from the 3-point line. The Spurs can adjust. But it won't be a cakewalk series - especially if the 3's start dropping.


You are correct that Spurs ARE 25th in opponent three point percentage on shots taken but they are first in the league in least three point shots ALLOWED @ 10.7...Sonics averaged 22.2 attempts per game this year over all and averaged 15 per game against the Spurs...still not great if they are all falling obviously but not as bad as the hit percentage makes it seem...

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Nice post, 101.

My sentiments are pretty much the same. The Spurs only lose this series with a letdown.

The Sonics are a easier matchup than what Phoenix is going to face in round two. Conceeding that 1 seed probably wasn't the worst thing in the world.

[1Parker1]

Well, I don't think the Sonics will be as easy to beat as everyone thinks. If we close the lane with our two 7 footers, Sonics have more than enough players who can make jumpshots.

Although, I have to say, I would much rather face the Sonics in the 2nd Round, then have to face the winner of the Dallas/Houston series.

[spurster]

The Ray Ray and Rashard combo will be the key. If the Spurs can shut one of them down, this series goes to the Spurs.

[GSH]

You are correct that Spurs ARE 25th in opponent three point percentage on shots taken but they are first in the league in least three point shots ALLOWED @ 10.7...Sonics averaged 22.2 attempts per game this year over all and averaged 15 per game against the Spurs...still not great if they are all falling obviously but not as bad as the hit percentage makes it seem...

You're right, Cosmic. And it's a good point. The Sonics even set a record one game by jacking up more 3-point attempts than 2-point attempts. If they aren't shooting 3's, they can't hit 3's.

Personally, what I would like to see is Ray-Ray put up 25 shots, and score 25 points. He can get his points, as long as they force him to put up enough bad shots, and shoot a low percentage. Unfortunately, there are nights when Ray Allen can make no-look shots from the parking lot.

[101A]

Bump.

Analysis, get your analysis here.