48MoH: San Antonio Spurs 102, Dallas Mavericks 88

[Blackjack]

San Antonio Spurs 102, Dallas Mavericks 88: Regression to the mean means a victory for Tim Duncan and the Spurs
by Jesse Blanchard

http://www.nba.com/spurs/photos/100421_15.jpg

Perception and reality are two vastly different and constantly changing things, especially in an NBA playoff series where momentum shifts freely from one game to the next.

A superficial glance at the box scores will tell you that the San Antonio Spurs did a much better job guarding Dirk Nowitzki than in his blitzkrieg Game 1 victory over the Spurs. And yes, while there were some rotation changes, defensive adjustments and a concentrated effort to avoid fouls, the true difference between Games 1 and 2 can be summed up in one simple statement–regression to the mean.

Or, as Tim Duncan so astutely put it following Game 1, “and I can go ahead and bet he’s not going to go 12 of 14 again.”

Keep reading → (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/04/22/san-antonio-spurs-102-dallas-mavericks-88-regression-to-the-mean-means-a-victory-for-tim-duncan-and-the-spurs/#more-7762)

[benefactor]

Good read. I fear the intensity will regress in at least one of the next two games. Hopefully I'm wrong...again. :)

[Blackjack]

Last night was just what the doctor ordered. To see the team play the way they did when they were knocking off the Magic, Lakers, Cavs, Nuggets, etc., it was just great to see.

My worry coming into this series was that it'd take one or two games too long for them to find their stride. Finding the rhythm with a full compliment of players and the prospect of George, and to a lesser extent, Tony, getting their games back after injury and layoffs ... would just prove to be too much -- the ill-timing of circumstance that's plagued this team all year.

But last night only helped to bolster the hope that it's possible. That the internal hurdles aren't too high to leap over; that this team can find a way to get it done -- the effort, intensity and overall purpose the Spurs played with last night was nothing short of inspirational.

To the victories of a spoiler. :toast

[jack0fspeed]

Though I largely agree with the central premise of the article ... i.e. the regression to the mean ... it should be understood that the mean for Dirk being single covered in the playoffs is going to be a good 10 points higher than regular season. The same can be said of Duncan being single covered.

Furthermore, I think ... though Dirk wound up with 24 pts ... his lack of getting to his single covered mean is the main reason the Mavs lost last night. If San Antonio is going to play the "Dirk's going to get his" defense , Dirk actually has to get his or the Mavs aren't going to win.

[Supergirl]

Spurs played much better but could still have played better. I expect we will see more from Blair playing on our own court, and Hill has underperformed as well. But they are playoff newbies, so this is to be expected. When they start playing better, our bench will not suffer in the way it did when our big three went to the bench in games 1 and 2. And that will be a big help.

[StoneBuddha]

Spurs played much better but could still have played better. I expect we will see more from Blair playing on our own court, and Hill has underperformed as well. But they are playoff newbies, so this is to be expected. When they start playing better, our bench will not suffer in the way it did when our big three went to the bench in games 1 and 2. And that will be a big help.

I kept worrying because I felt the Spurs were squandering easy oppportunities-- either free throws or easy lay-ups around the hoop.

I do think they will need to play the rest of the series at last night's level to win it. Hopefully, game 2 is closer to the Spurs mean than game 1. I'm most worried about RJ playing at the level. I'm hoping that any leveling off in Jefferson's performance will be compensated by Hill stepping up his play.