5, 6, 7, and 8 in the West?

[flame]

However unlikely, the underdogs are either tied or leading in all 4 series of the West. Considering how well these teams are playing, I wouldn't be all that surprised if it happened. So I was wondering other people's odds that all 4 underdogs would win this year.

I'll go first with a 40%. Portland was my main hangup but they have Brandon Roy back...who wasn't nearly as bad as I thought he would be. It's insane what surgeons can do these days.

Also - LA scares me even after the stomping they just endured.

So anyone else willing to throw their hat in the ring? :toast

[DJ Mbenga]

you are assuming the dallas series gets tied. i dont know. cuban is flat out challenging the refs. i think it would backfire. they will get less calls. of course maybe butler decides to show up.
lakers still have 2 out of the next 3 games at home. given how much home court advantage matters in todays nba(it has nothing to do with crowds) they look fine.
denver is just flat out given up since they only care for karl's health and not games.

[hitmanyr2k]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see LA choke Game 5. The Thunder can play fast and loose like the 2007 Warriors. They're the 8th seed and aren't even supposed to be competitive with the world champs. There's no pressure on them. LA is the team with everything at stake.

[monosylab1k]

you are assuming the dallas series gets tied.

what exactly in his post led you to that conclusion? goddamn laker fans are stupid.

[j.dizzle]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see LA choke Game 5. The Thunder can play fast and loose like the 2007 Warriors. They're the 8th seed and aren't even supposed to be competitive with the world champs. There's no pressure on them. LA is the team with everything at stake.
:lmao Fuck son, you think this is the Eastern Conference or some shit? OKC is a legit team with the scoring title winner on it & one of the best PG's in the league.

[mogrovejo]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see LA choke Game 5. The Thunder can play fast and loose like the 2007 Warriors. They're the 8th seed and aren't even supposed to be competitive with the world champs. There's no pressure on them. LA is the team with everything at stake.

They're a +50 wins team playing a +50 wins team and have some favourable matchups, in terms of players and team skills.

Why aren't they supposed to be competitive. I was expecting them to be pretty competitive.

The only series I didn't think it'd be competitive was the Suns vs Blazers sans Roy one. Other than that, every series was supposed to be competitive, all teams are of similar quality.

Right now, I'd give 55-45 to the Lakers and Mavs; 60-40 to the Suns; used to have 55-45 Denver but not it's 50-50 with Utah as the slightly favourites.

[Giuseppe]

what exactly in his post led you to that conclusion? goddamn laker fans are stupid.

I thought you'd turned over a new leaf & was Godly, mono?

tee, hee.

[mogrovejo]

The only team in the WC that is clearly a step above the Thunder in terms of being competitive versus the Lakers - to the point of being favourites even without HCA - it's the Mavs.

[Wombatzu]

However unlikely, the underdogs are either tied or leading in all 4 series of the West. Considering how well these teams are playing, I wouldn't be all that surprised if it happened. So I was wondering other people's odds that all 4 underdogs would win this year.

I'll go first with a 40%. Portland was my main hangup but they have Brandon Roy back...who wasn't nearly as bad as I thought he would be. It's insane what surgeons can do these days.

Also - LA scares me even after the stomping they just endured.

So anyone else willing to throw their hat in the ring? :toast

well if you are going to call 1-4 the favorites(heads) and 5-8 the dogs(tails) then it would be: 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/16.

so a 1/16th chance that all "dogs" would win.

but those are arbitrary definitions and there's not a lot of difference between 2-8. and even 1 isn't looking so hot right now.

[Whisky Dog]

The only team in the WC that is clearly a step above the Thunder in terms of being competitive versus the Lakers - to the point of being favourites even without HCA - it's the Mavs.

What the fuck are you smoking? The mavs fall down and crumble in front of the lakers so fast it's sickening. They have no game for the lakers even if the lakers aren't that great anymore. lakers own mav and always have. The mav thought they were getting their best matchup right now but are discovering they have no half court game against the best and healthiest Spurs team since 2007.

[jestersmash]

well if you are going to call 1-4 the favorites(heads) and 5-8 the dogs(tails) then it would be: 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/16.

so a 1/16th chance that all "dogs" would win.

but those are arbitrary definitions and there's not a lot of difference between 2-8. and even 1 isn't looking so hot right now.

If 1-4 are "favorites," it's intuitive to arbitrarily assign a probability of winning of > 50% for those teams (and, therefore, < 50% for the underdogs), which would make the final result even less than 1/16

[jestersmash]

One way to do it would be to use hollinger's playoff odds, but those odds continually change everyday.

For example, before the spurs-mavs series started, the mavericks were the favorites 55-45, roughly.

Now, however, the spurs are the favorites 70-30.

Anybody have the original playoff odds numbers? (probably not)

Lakers still have a 70-30 edge over the thunder. I have no idea what parameters go into this formula, by the way, but contrary to popular belief, hollinger...has a good track record with 1st round picks.

[mogrovejo]

What the fuck are you smoking? The mavs fall down and crumble in front of the lakers so fast it's sickening. They have no game for the lakers even if the lakers aren't that great anymore. lakers own mav and always have. The mav thought they were getting their best matchup right now but are discovering they have no half court game against the best and healthiest Spurs team since 2007.

Who are you?

Am I the only one noticing an influx of Spurs fans that didn't use to post here till a few days ago?

It's bringing the quality of the forum down, most of these new guys are clueless about the NBA (unlike the regular Spurs fans who post here regularly), I'm losing an huge amount of time reading bad posts. One of them didnt' even know that Durant's nickname was Durantula; they tend to view Kobe as it's still 2006 or something... just a lot of new, very bad posters.

Anyway, I've explained why the Mavs matchup superbly with the Lakers, why the OKC would give LAL lots of trouble, why the Spurs and the Mavs would have a very balanced series and what are the important strenghts and weaknesses of these plenty of times; look for the posts if you're interested, I won't bother to repeat it considering the tone of your reply. Btw, "X own Y and always have" is absolutely idiotic. Funny to see you tout the Spurs as a strong team now; I wouldn't be surprised if you were probably one of those saying they were finished and weren't contenders any more just a couple of months ago.

[jestersmash]

Ominous...I just went through the entire simulation and...mavs came out as champions.

[jestersmash]

hahaha, orlando magic - charlotte bobcats is 99-1 in orlando's favor right now.

cavs-bulls is 96-4, currently.

[NewJerSpur]

Who are you?

Am I the only one noticing an influx of Spurs fans that didn't use to post here till a few days ago?

It's bringing the quality of the forum down, most of these new guys are clueless about the NBA (unlike the regular Spurs fans who post here regularly), I'm losing an huge amount of time reading bad posts. One of them didnt' even know that Durant's nickname was Durantula; they tend to view Kobe as it's still 2006 or something... just a lot of new, very bad posters.

Anyway, I've explained why the Mavs matchup superbly with the Lakers, why the OKC would give LAL lots of trouble, why the Spurs and the Mavs would have a very balanced series and what are the important strenghts and weaknesses of these plenty of times; look for the posts if you're interested, I won't bother to repeat it considering the tone of your reply. Btw, "X own Y and always have" is absolutely idiotic. Funny to see you tout the Spurs as a strong team now; I wouldn't be surprised if you were probably one of those saying they were finished and weren't contenders any more just a couple of months ago.

Hey, HEy, HEY....don't hate on newcomers like me trying to jump on the bandwagon late and cause utter chaos around here!!! :p:

[DJ Mbenga]

Hey, HEy, HEY....don't hate on newcomers like me trying to jump on the bandwagon late and cause utter chaos around here!!! :p:

every time i see that name i have to do a doubel take cause i thought it said new jew

[NewJerSpur]

every time i see that name i have to do a doubel take cause i thought it said new jew

LOL, maybe I should've separated them a bit, lol.

[mogrovejo]

Hey, HEy, HEY....don't hate on newcomers like me trying to jump on the bandwagon late and cause utter chaos around here!!! :p:

Not sure about you yet, but it's not like every one is bad - I mean, the regular Spurs posters in the NBA board are generally are generally of extremely high quality. It just feels that many of them haven't watched a single NBA game where the Spurs weren't playing for the entire season - and probably missed many of the Spurs when they were struggling. Nothing against them, it just means they're mentally healthier than me, and I'm not trying to be an elitist, but it shows in their posts (too many silly things, too many outdated clichés, too much showboating, etc.)

-----------

Anyway, I was just told that the difference between LA and OKC is the smallest EVER between a 8th and a 1st seed in point differential - the difference is smaller than about half of the COnference Finals matchup. Just shows there's no reason to consider this an upset even if OKC somehow pulls a win.

[NewJerSpur]

Not sure about you yet, but it's not like every one is bad - I mean, the regular Spurs posters in the NBA board are generally are generally of extremely high quality. It just feels that many of them haven't watched a single NBA game where the Spurs weren't playing for the entire season - and probably missed many of the Spurs when they were struggling. Nothing against them, it just means they're mentally healthier than me, and I'm not trying to be an elitist, but it shows in their posts (too many silly things, too many outdated clichés, too much showboating, etc.)


Just know that while you've got your eye on me, I've got my eye on YOU TOO there buddy (can't find an emoticon to quite bring that home) and everything is not what it appears (whatever that means, just sounds deep).

[ffadicted]

Anyway, I was just told that the difference between LA and OKC is the smallest EVER between a 8th and a 1st seed in point differential - the difference is smaller than about half of the COnference Finals matchup. Just shows there's no reason to consider this an upset even if OKC somehow pulls a win.

Interesting stat, and it just proves that anything out west isn't an upset this year. Only 7 games separated 1st from 8th, and Lakers really bogged and slowed down towards the last stretch.

Even so, I still expect them to win. Lakers offense was horrendous last night. 26 points from their starting frontcourt (their biggest advantage in this series) and only 12 from Bryant? I mean, sure they shot 50% (lol), but he's a volume shooter no question behind it, and needs a lot more to be effective. He just hurts the team when he plays like that. He's injured, but he'll pick it up I think.

Same goes for Pau, and not to mention Odom has had a pretty passable series. I know you can't just "turn it on" or whatever, but we saw what happened with RJ in game 2, so I fully believe if the lakers get a game like that from Odom and play their regular style, they can in back in OKC.

Lastly, as much as people like to overrate this, experience will be a huge factor now. Like I said, I can see LA coming into OKC and closing out the series if they win game 5... but can I see OKC handling Kobe and the defending champs in a game 7 situation? The young guys there have proven me wrong before (I predicted they'd drop one of two at home in gm3-4), but quite frankly, no I can't.

As for Spurs/Mavs, Jazz/Nugs, Blazers/Suns, it's really anyone's series in all those, but right now I'd give adv to Spurs, Jazz (still surprised at this) and Suns

[pauls931]

I still think Pho can pull it off with HCA, granted I'm worried that it will take all 7 games. Despite people laughing at Tlong, Portland is a very good team. But I don't want to see them in the 2nd round cause I think they will get steam rolled by the Spurs and I want to see another bitter Suns/Spurs playoff series. Granted the Spurs are starting to scare me now, probably the only team playing to their potential right now.

[Muser]

:lmao Fuck son, you think this is the Eastern Conference or some shit? OKC is a legit team with the scoring title winner on it & one of the best PG's in the league.

And they have shit for big men, shame the Lakers have pussies for big men huh.

[Saul Silver]

Who the fuck is this stupid Giuseppe faggot?

[TampaDude]

Who the fuck is this stupid Giuseppe faggot?

He's youngboyluva's cum receptacle. Funny guy, though. :lol

[Wombatzu]

If 1-4 are "favorites," it's intuitive to arbitrarily assign a probability of winning of > 50% for those teams (and, therefore, < 50% for the underdogs), which would make the final result even less than 1/16

yeah.

let's call the Spurs 3/2 favorites at this point.

Blazers even money at 1/2.

Jazz 1/3 dogs.

and i think Thunder at 1/6 is still giving them the benefit of the doubt.

so 3/2*1/2*1/3*1/6 = 1/24

so at this point (with my own personal probabilities)i would put the chance of all "underdogs" winning at 1/24 or 23:1 against.

[Whisky Dog]

Who are you?

Am I the only one noticing an influx of Spurs fans that didn't use to post here till a few days ago?

It's bringing the quality of the forum down, most of these new guys are clueless about the NBA (unlike the regular Spurs fans who post here regularly), I'm losing an huge amount of time reading bad posts. One of them didnt' even know that Durant's nickname was Durantula; they tend to view Kobe as it's still 2006 or something... just a lot of new, very bad posters.

Anyway, I've explained why the Mavs matchup superbly with the Lakers, why the OKC would give LAL lots of trouble, why the Spurs and the Mavs would have a very balanced series and what are the important strenghts and weaknesses of these plenty of times; look for the posts if you're interested, I won't bother to repeat it considering the tone of your reply. Btw, "X own Y and always have" is absolutely idiotic. Funny to see you tout the Spurs as a strong team now; I wouldn't be surprised if you were probably one of those saying they were finished and weren't contenders any more just a couple of months ago.

:rollin You're such a fuckng tool. I don't post this forum much because 99% of it is you retards trying to slap each other with you 2 inch peckers all fucking day. It's annoying. If you ever look in Spurs, NFL, or College forums instead of your little jerk fest here you'd understand. I said the Lakers aren't as good anymore, so how am I thinking Kobe is 2006 form? Mav steps up to plays the Spurs but doesn't have the balls or toughness to absorb the calls and take out the lakers. They broke down and cried because Danny Crawford's crew let the teams be physical and not put Dirk on the line for every ticky tack bullshit contact. If they can't handle the Spurs getting a fairly even called game with only a +4 adjusted FTA for the team that OWNED the paint, then how the fuck are they going to overcome the free throw parade the refs would give Kobe in that series? It would be 2006 Finals all over again and they'll cry and bitch again like always.

Stop acting like you're some kind of basketball wise guru who has these ungodly, insightful takes. You're a fucking moron with shitty takes most of the time.

[Giuseppe]

[:rollin You're such a fuckng tool. I don't post this forum much because 99% of it is you retards trying to slap each other with you 2 inch peckers all fucking day.]

Just a swell contribution.

[Death In June]

Who are you?

Am I the only one noticing an influx of Spurs fans that didn't use to post here till a few days ago?You mean what are spurs fans doing on a spurs message board, at the onset of the playoffs? Do you even read the shit you bitch about, or is just some sort of verbal diarrhea you have no control over?

[mogrovejo]

You mean what are spurs fans doing on a spurs message board, at the onset of the playoffs? Do you even read the shit you bitch about, or is just some sort of verbal diarrhea you have no control over?

Not at the onset of the playoffs, after the 1st games they weren't around.

The problem it's not that they're Spurs fans. I've already explained this. It's that they're so idiotic/clueless about the NBA/basketball and bring such low quality contributions (unlike most Spurs fans who post here through out the season). Capisce?

[mogrovejo]

:rollin You're such a fuckng tool. I don't post this forum much because 99% of it is you retards trying to slap each other with you 2 inch peckers all fucking day. It's annoying.

Nice. Now, please leave.


f you ever look in Spurs, NFL, or College forums instead of your little jerk fest here you'd understand. I said the Lakers aren't as good anymore, so how am I thinking Kobe is 2006 form? Mav steps up to plays the Spurs but doesn't have the balls or toughness to absorb the calls and take out the lakers. They broke down and cried because Danny Crawford's crew let the teams be physical and not put Dirk on the line for every ticky tack bullshit contact. If they can't handle the Spurs getting a fairly even called game with only a +4 adjusted FTA for the team that OWNED the paint, then how the fuck are they going to overcome the free throw parade the refs would give Kobe in that series? It would be 2006 Finals all over again and they'll cry and bitch again like always.

Stop acting like you're some kind of basketball wise guru who has these ungodly, insightful takes. You're a fucking moron with shitty takes most of the time.

I mean, you do understand that after your first sentence you just go for a crazy rant about how the Mavericks are a bunch of softies who only win because of the referees and that can't handle the Spurs when the game is fairly called and blah blah blah without making a single interesting basketball related argument, right? Do you understand the irony?

Plus, Kobe barely drives to the basket any more. Almost 80% of his shots are jumpers. You would know this if you actually watched games and were familiar with the NBA. One of the reasons why the Mavericks would favourites over the Lakers is precisely because LA lacks elite dribble drivers.

[LoneStarState'sPride]

Not at the onset of the playoffs, after the 1st games they weren't around.

The problem it's not that they're Spurs fans. I've already explained this. It's that they're so idiotic/clueless about the NBA/basketball and bring such low quality contributions (unlike most Spurs fans who post here through out the season). Capisce?

I've got shit to do other than watch NBA games all season long and then turn around and live on an internet message board. Also, some of us spend more time posting on other Spurs boards around the internet during the regular season.

But goddammit, if I have a take on a Spurs message board, I'm going to post it whether you think it's "insightful" enough or not. Quit being an elitist--after all, you're the one with thousands of posts on a SPURSTALK message board--I don't care if it is the general NBA forum. You're pathetic.

[mogrovejo]

I've got shit to do other than watch NBA games all season long and then turn around and live on an internet message board. Also, some of us spend more time posting on other Spurs boards around the internet during the regular season.

But goddammit, if I have a take on a Spurs message board, I'm going to post it whether you think it's "insightful" enough or not. Quit being an elitist--after all, you're the one with thousands of posts on a SPURSTALK message board--I don't care if it is the general NBA forum. You're pathetic.

And you won't be around once the Spurs are eliminated.

I'm going to be an elitist, if that's what you want to call it, and you can't do anything about it.

Not even knowing the playoffs drawing, thinking nobody ever called Durant "Durantula" till yesterday...

[LoneStarState'sPride]

And you won't be around once the Spurs are eliminated.

I'm going to be an elitist, if that's what you want to call it, and you can't do anything about it.

Not even knowing the playoffs drawing, thinking nobody ever called Durant "Durantula" till yesterday...

Your stupidity is amazing. I watched Durant when he was at Texas--several times in person (I go to Texas A&M--UT's in-state rival). Students started calling him "Durantula" back then, but it didn't catch on till he went to the NBA.

I'm not trying to change you or your behavior--your type of ignorance is ingrained. This is one of the precise reasons I stayed away from ST for many years, and regardless of whether I decide to post year round on this particular forum or just during the playoffs, it gives you no excuse to act like an elitist jackass.

[mogrovejo]

Your stupidity is amazing. I watched Durant when he was at Texas--several times in person (I go to Texas A&M--UT's in-state rival). Students started calling him "Durantula" back then, but it didn't catch on till he went to the NBA.

I'm not trying to change you or your behavior--your type of ignorance is ingrained. This is one of the precise reasons I stayed away from ST for many years, and regardless of whether I decide to post year round on this particular forum or just during the playoffs, it gives you no excuse to act like an elitist jackass.

I find unpleasant to lose lots of time reading posts of people who didn't know about the Durantula nickname till yesterday - who probably watched him playing for the first time yesterday.

It's one thing if they're posting from time to time, it's a completely different one if their posting is dominating the entire board, like it's been happening for a few days.

Stop calling me stupid and ignorant just because I'm not happy with the quality of the board lately.

[ffadicted]

yeah.

let's call the Spurs 3/2 favorites at this point.

Blazers even money at 1/2.

Jazz 1/3 dogs.

and i think Thunder at 1/6 is still giving them the benefit of the doubt.

so 3/2*1/2*1/3*1/6 = 1/24

so at this point (with my own personal probabilities)i would put the chance of all "underdogs" winning at 1/24 or 23:1 against.

Spurs have a 150% chance of winning the series? :lol