The Obvious: Game 4 is Pivotal - winner wins series

[Mavs<Spurs]

As obvious as the statement that water is wet. But, yes, game 4 is pivotal. In fact, in my opinion, it is overwhelmingly likely that the winner of game 4 wins the series. And this for the obvious reason, if Dallas wins game 4, then it is a best of 3 series with Dallas having hca. On the other hand, if we win, then Spurs are up 3-1 and are very likely to win the series (of course, anything is possible and Dallas is a very good team, very capable of beating us).

Dirk has already said as much in the press conference following game 3. And we all remember what Dirk said after the Mavs fell down 2 to 1 against the Warriors. Lol. Good times ! I still watch that series (have it saved after buying it from nba.com ) just for kicks.

What we have done thus far is all for nothing if we don't win this game.
The Mavs will come out desperate. I would not be surprised if they take a decent lead, but I expect us to slowly chip away at it, make a patented third quarter run led by Manu, and win a fairly close game at the end. I believe that our guys will be humble and be ready for a tremendous battle from the Mavs.

Mavs win game 5. probably. But we are great at close out games.
We close them out in 6.

My prediction for Game 4:
Spurs 99 Mavs 94

Keys:
1. Keep turnovers to a minimum.

2. Rebounding.

3.Somebody to be the fourth scorer - Jefferson or Hill probably.


Off topic, but I expect the Lakers to blow out the Thunder after their humiliating loss, if they can. If it is close, that is a sign that something is terribly wrong with the Lakers. After this kind of embarrassment, the Lakers will give full effort to play their very best basketball and take revenge. If it is close, then their best, even at home, is not much better than the Thunder. I predicted this series would go six (I predicted Lakers in 6). At this time, it is not clear that it will only go six since OKC may very well win game 6.

:flag:

What is your prediction for game 4 ?

[spursfaninla]

Dallas needs this game more than the Spurs. If we win, the series is effectively over.

If we lose, I think it is a toss-up, but we could still win it. We could take another game in Dallas I think, if needed.

[exstatic]

The only pivotal game is an actual deciding game. God, you people LOVE your drama.

[jestersmash]

I don't agree with this assessment at all. It's not "obvious"...at all.

The only thing we can go by is the facts of the current series.

Forget about "the team who went up 2-1 in the past has historically won the series." Note: I'm obviously not asking the original poster to "forget" this, because he didn't bring it up. But, I've seen this little statistic brought up by other posters and it's a classic case of gambler's fallacy.

What we know from this series is that the spurs are clearly capable of winning in dallas - they won game 2 in dallas.

If the Mavs were to win tomorrow, they would prove that, in this series, they are capable of winning in san antonio. They'd regain home court advantage, but to suggest that the fact that they win game 4 (if they do) makes them infallibly the winner of the series is amateurish.

To be honest, even my supposition that the spurs have "proved" they can win in dallas is, to a lesser extent, a case of gambler's fallacy.

It's getting slightly annoying seeing this "all or none" mentality by spurs fans on this board so often. We win a game and the forums explode. We lose a game or even talk about losing a game, and the series is suddenly "over."

Let's try to find a rational middle ground, shall we?

[Mavs<Spurs]

The only pivotal game is an actual deciding game. God, you people LOVE your drama.

care to guess the percentages in this situation ?

How often the winner of game 4 (when it is 2-1 in favor of the team that originally did not have hca) wins the series ? :rolleyes

[jestersmash]

I'll try to give you an example to expose your fallacy.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the winner of game 4 has won the series 100% of the time in that scenario you put forth.

If that is the case, then your argument is similar to suggesting the following: Say we have a fair coin. We flip the coin 4 times and the result comes up as "heads" all four times.

"Heads" coming up each of those times is analogous to the "winner of game 4 winning the series (when it's 2-1 in favor....etc.etc."


What you are suggesting is that because the team who has won game 4 has won 100% of the time (I don't know if it's 100%, but we already said we'd assume that for the sake of argument, I'm too lazy to look up the actual statistic) that there is a 100% chance that the winner of game 4 will win this series.

That's equivalent to suggesting that because we flipped the coin 4 times and the result has been heads 100% of the time, then the probability of flipping heads on the 5th try is also 100%.

Obviously, that's not the case, the true probability of flipping heads is 50%.

What's the true probability that the Mavs or Spurs will win this series? It's..literally impossible to figure out. The parameters going into such a calculation would be so varied and complex that it's probably not even worth trying (although people like Hollinger do their best)

[Mavs<Spurs]

I don't agree with this assessment at all. It's not "obvious"...at all.

The only thing we can go by is the facts of the current series.

Forget about "the team who went up 2-1 in the past has historically won the series." Note: I'm obviously not asking the original poster to "forget" this, because he didn't bring it up. But, I've seen this little statistic brought up by other posters and it's a classic case of gambler's fallacy.

What we know from this series is that the spurs are clearly capable of winning in dallas - they won game 2 in dallas.

If the Mavs were to win tomorrow, they would prove that, in this series, they are capable of winning in san antonio. They'd regain home court advantage, but to suggest that the fact that they win game 4 (if they do) makes them infallibly the winner of the series is amateurish.

To be honest, even my supposition that the spurs have "proved" they can win in dallas is, to a lesser extent, a case of gambler's fallacy.

It's getting slightly annoying seeing this "all or none" mentality by spurs fans on this board so often. We win a game and the forums explode. We lose a game or even talk about losing a game, and the series is suddenly "over."

Let's try to find a rational middle ground, shall we?

You seem to misunderstand gambler's fallacy.
Current coin toss is not affected by previous coin tosses.
Hint: coins are not human, no conditional probability is involved....

I have a master's degree in math, am a ph.d. student who just won an academic excellence award ... Let's not be condescending. We can both expect that the other person is educated and intelligent.

And who in the hell said that the series was over and could not be won back. I am saying that if Dallas wins, they are very likely to win the series. And that is simple realism. But it is far from fatalism or a defeatist attitude. Spurs still might win the series even if they lose game 4. But the more likely outcome, in my opinion, would be that the Mavs would win the series.

I would suggest that there is a reason why teams who hold hca in a tied series with only 3 games remaining win the series.

[jestersmash]

Don't care about your awards or qualifications. I'm a 2nd year medical student, but you're welcome to teach me something about neurophysiology or genetics. I don't know it all.

The fact remains, that you are still using past performance to predict performance in the current series.

Isn't it possible that the team that won game 4 (and gained or retained HCA) won in the past not solely or even primarily due to their HCA, but for other factors? It's entirely possible, and it's very difficult to tease these other factors out.

[poop]

ignore these douchebag wanna be statiticians/hollingers...

WINNER OF GAME 4 WINS THE SERIES. PERIOD.

[jestersmash]

The fact that the team with HCA after game for has won the series suggests that there is a correlation between holding HCA after game 4 and winning the series. It's a positive correlation, but a correlation nonetheless.

[Mavs<Spurs]

Don't care about your awards or qualifications. I'm a 2nd year medical student, but you're welcome to teach me something about neurophysiology or genetics. I don't know it all.

The fact remains, that you are still using past performance to predict performance in the current series.

Isn't it possible that the team that won game 4 (and gained or retained HCA) won in the past not solely or even primarily due to their HCA, but for other factors? It's entirely possible, and it's very difficult to tease these other factors out.

Don't be condescending if you don't want to be called out on it. If you aren't a mathematician and act like you are the authority on mathematics, don't be surprised if somebody with my background is going to reply in this manner.


You did misunderstand gambler's fallacy because you undeniably applied it inappropriately. When you talk down to somebody and you were wrong when you did it, you place yourself in harm's way. That's why it is better to be charitable towards others. When you are rude and wrong, it is worse than when you are charitable and wrong. When you are charitable towards others, they are more likely to be charitable towards you.


I never supposed that you were not intelligent or educated. On the contrary, I explicitly stated that I was beginning with that belief. And I retain it.


What do they have in common ?
It is indubitably true that HCA is a very significant advantage.
People who can't admit this are not being reasonable.

[murpjf88]

This series will be far from over even if the Spurs squeeze out a game 4 win. Two out of the 3 remaining games will be played in Dallas. Dallas has the best road record in the NBA. The Mavs can certainly run off three in a row.

Take a look at the 2006 series. Spurs trailed 3-1. The spurs rallied to take games 5 and 6 and nearly took game 7 if it wasn't for the bad foul on Dirk.

The Spurs ABSOLUTELY must win game 4 if they entertain thoughts of winning the series.

[L.I.T]

Only 8 times has a team come back from a 3-1 deficit in the NBA.

So, by that token, Game 4 practically is a must-win for the Mavs.

[50 cent]

I thought Game 2 was a necessity. Game 4 would be really nice, but not a necessity.

[Avitus1]

Game 4 is a must win not only do we retain HCA but we make it a nearly impossible up hill battle for Dallas if they hope to advance to the next round.

[EricB]

Every game is a must win in the playoffs.

I've yet to see a game where it was said "meh, we can lose that one"

[GSH]

Coins don't get PMS - Dirk Nowitzki does. Both of you math whizzes need to take some electives.

[poop]

winner of Game 4 wins the series.

'book it' ....

[alchemist]

A part of me doesn't even want to watch this game, Friday's game probably shorten my life a bit during the 17-0 run :lol

[Sisk]

Coins don't get PMS - Dirk Nowitzki does. Both of you math whizzes need to take some electives.

:rollin

i was going to call both of them out but you've already done it

good job, sir

[xellos88330]

The seeds of doubt have been planted in the Mavs. Carlisle added fertilizer by benching two starters for pretty much an entire half.

IMO, I think that the Mavs won't be able to recover quickly enough. They will come out desperate for something to go their way. If the first quarter is the same as game 2 and 3, then the Mavs are in serious trouble. Those seeds will start sprouting all over that team and they might quickly crumble. It is time to see what the Mavs are really made of. If the Mavs lose this game, they are flat out finished... probably Spurs in 5.

My Spurs in 5 thought is based upon the notion of all the pressure that Dallas recieves to perform after so many disappointments in the past (and a Spurs win Sunday). This might explain why the Mavs were so good on the road. If the Mavs return to Dallas down 3-1, the homecourt could be toxic to that team.

My prediction is that the Spurs do win G4 and win it handily.

EDIT: If the Spurs come out flat, this is still a series.

[phyzik]

Winner of Game 4 does not win the series....

It has been said by radio heads and ESPN puppets that no one has won a series being down 3-1.

There is a first time for everything.

Spurs should NOT get complacent if they win tomorrow.

I think the Spurs DO win tomorrow, but lose game 5. Spurs in 6 is my prediction. Dallas is a scary team though and Spurs have been known to lay a few eggs this season. You never know.

Dont get complacent.

[SAtown]

:lmao it's enough we have to deal with wannabe Scouts, Coaches, GMs, and Owners throughout the year, now we have to deal with mathematicians! WGAF what you are, Winner of game 4 will PROBABLY win the series!

[phyzik]

secretly..... Im hoping for a Spurs win tomorrow, then a loss in game 5.... so I can go to game 6 and watch the Spurs beat the hated mavericks on our own court. :lol

I wouldnt be disapointed at all if we smashed their collective mouths in at their court though!

[ElNono]

care to guess the percentages in this situation ?

How often the winner of game 4 (when it is 2-1 in favor of the team that originally did not have hca) wins the series ? :rolleyes

As far as Spurs-Mavs series goes, the winner of game 3 has always taken the series, IIRC. Going by the numbers, the pivotal game was the last one...

[ElNono]

And I fully expect the Mavs to come out with desperation... I hope the Spurs match their intensity...

[JustinJDW]

In my mind, ever game in the Playoffs is a must win. I have never seen a Playoff game where your attitude can be like, "Eh, we can concede the game. We'll be alright."

Oh, and what is with all this "Winner of Game 4 is Winner of Series" crap. Last time I fucking checked, the winner of the Series is the team that won the 4 Games out of a 7-Game Series Format. I am sure glad the Spurs players don't have the mentality the people on SpursTalk have. The Series is 2-1 and suddenly everyone is blowing their loads.

Take games one at a time. DON'T EVER ASSUME YOU HAVE A GAME AND DON'T EVER TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED! EVER!

[m33p0]

destined to be a classic. it's not going to be about talent, or coaching, or chemistry... it's going to be about who has the guts to rip it out of the hands of the other.
http://www.expertlaserservices.com/uploaded_images/300-battle-cry-773746.jpg

[circ]

Is it just me or do the Spurs always seem to have that one game in a series where everything goes wrong and they get blown-out?
wide open clanked shots, fouls, turnovers, bad foul calls, missed easy layups, bad rotations, decent defense on a bunch of plays and the opp. making an impossible shot leaving the opponent smiling and giddy, etc.

That's the only thing that concerns me at this point.
http://thesportshernia.typepad.com/blog/images/2007/06/26/debbiedowner.jpg
wawh waaawh

[boutons_deux]

In 2-2 series, it's the winner of Game5 that wins the series like 85% of the time. (see Spurs '05, even after two wipeouts in Game3,4)

The Lakers are 17-0 in 2-2 Game5s.

Taking 3-1 back to Dallas would be so sweet. duh

[Agloco]

As obvious as the statement that water is wet. But, yes, game 4 is pivotal. In fact, in my opinion, it is overwhelmingly likely that the winner of game 4 wins the series.

I was gonna start a thread on this very topic yesterday but the site seemed to be down. I agree 100%. The winner of Game 4 likely wins the series.

MY prediction?

Spurs 98 Mavs 89

Oh, and for anyone still doubting that Manu is the difference maker for the Spurs is clearly delusional.

[Agloco]

In 2-2 series, it's the winner of Game5 that wins the series like 85% of the time. (see Spurs '05, even after two wipeouts in Game3,4)

The Lakers are 17-0 in 2-2 Game5s.

Taking 3-1 back to Dallas would be so sweet. duh

Your stat is correct, but I think the people who are talking about Game 4 being so pivotal do so because they don't see the Spurs taking another game in Dallas (myself included).

Also, this situation is a bit different from the one you outlined. In the Detroit series, both Games 6 and 7 were in SA. Two of the last three would be in Dallas in this case.

[TampaDude]

Your stat is correct, but I think the people who are talking about Game 4 being so pivotal do so because they don't see the Spurs taking another game in Dallas (myself included).

Also, this situation is a bit different from the one you outlined. In the Detroit series, both Games 6 and 7 were in SA. Two of the last three would be in Dallas in this case.

Yes, but we've already won in Dallas, so we can do it again.

[emanueldavidginobili]

I believe if we win game 4 we can also win game 5 easily we already proved we can be up on this team by 20 at their place, it would be huge if we won in 5 the rest would be hugeeee.

[m33p0]

whoever wins 4 wins the series.

i dare anyone to defy my prophecy.

[galvatron3000]

ignore these douchebag wanna be statiticians/hollingers...

WINNER OF GAME 4 WINS THE SERIES. PERIOD.

Wow your video shows one of the worst calls in history not to mention the worst commentary that says we didn't see what actually happened but what the ref say by former Spurs' player Steve Kerr

[boutons_deux]

Spurs in 06 vs Mavs, 1-3. Spurs would have come back from 1-3 to win that series 4-3, except The Hand Of Manu. These Mavs could come back from 1-3

Think of Spurs 05 coming back to SA from Auburn Hills 3-2, then fail to close out in Game6.

Spurs and Mavs are so close, every next game is pivotal, esp with the Mavs as best road record in NBA, that the series will be over when it's over.

[galvatron3000]

Spurs in 06 vs Mavs, 1-3. Spurs would have come back from 1-3 to win that series 4-3, except The Hand Of Manu. These Mavs could come back from 1-3

Think of Spurs 05 coming back to SA from Auburn Hills 3-2, then fail to close out in Game6.

Spurs and Mavs are so close, every next game is pivotal, esp with the Mavs as best road record in NBA, that the series will be over when it's over.

05 Spurs are far superior to any Mavs team you can think of

[Kori Ellis]

In 2-2 series, it's the winner of Game5 that wins the series like 85% of the time. (see Spurs '05, even after two wipeouts in Game3,4)

The Lakers are 17-0 in 2-2 Game5s.

Taking 3-1 back to Dallas would be so sweet. duh

Impossible. They lost Game 5 to the Spurs in 2003 when the series was tied 2-2. http://www.nba.com/playoffs2003/round2_west1.html

[ohmwrecker]

Really? Put down your calculators and protractors. It's just this simple: The Spurs win game 4 and Dallas has to win 3 in a row to win the series. Dallas wins game 4 and both teams have to win 2 out of three to win. It's a must win for both teams.

[ShoogarBear]

It has been said by radio heads and ESPN puppets that no one has won a series being down 3-1.


Really? Whoever said that is wrong. As True Blue Old School Spur Fan knows. :depressed (1978 vs. Bullets)

Also the Sixers blew a 3-1 lead to the Celtics in 1981.

Those are two I can think of, there are 1 or 2 more.

[DPG21920]

Mavs are a great road team and they rightly seem very, very confident for game four. They know they just had to get a split in these two games, and that opportunity is today. This will be the Mavs best game of the series to date. Spurs better be sharp.

[gospursgojas]

I still think the SPurs are ok if they lose this game. Its a 2-2 series and I predicted the Spurs in 6

[EmptyMan]

whoever wins 4 wins the series.

i dare anyone to defy my prophecy.


According to my calculations, that statement is erroneous. I have spent many years carrying out extensive research on the 4 wins fallacy.

[EricB]

Really? Whoever said that is wrong. As True Blue Old School Spur Fan knows. :depressed (1978 vs. Bullets)

Also the Sixers blew a 3-1 lead to the Celtics in 1981.

Those are two I can think of, there are 1 or 2 more.


Didn't Orlando in 2003 do it too? The infamous "I've always wanted to make it out of the first round" line by Tracy Mcgrady after game 4...

[gameFACE]

A must win for the Mavs, yes. A must win for the Spurs, no theoretically. The Spurs cannot relax.

[stnick2261]

In football, you don't call the last play of the game the "game changing play" unless you were behind and won on the last play... usually, it's a big play in the middle of the game that takes the desire out of the other team. In this case, game 4 can be a "game changer"... if the Spurs win, they are in a great position to win the series... if they don't, then the Mavs have a good chance to come back.

Yeah, flipping a coin in the past has no effect on future flipping.... but what are the odds of getting at least 1 heads in 3 tosses?... because if we win tonight, we only need 1 more win in 3 tries... and I like those odds (I believe 87.5%?)

[jack sommerset]

I don't think it matters. Mavs are the better team. Even if they lose tonight they still can go home and re-group. Carlisle fucked the Mavs keeping JJ out there. Then throw Kidd and Terry beside that douchebag, you lose. That mistake won't happen again.

[texlawman]

Forgot all then nonsense up till tonight. I think the winner of tonight will be in the driver's seat and will win the series.

I think we have neutral refs tonight so it will be decided on the court. It should be a tire iron type of game and I'm not sure who will win.

I think the play of Butler and Jefferson will decide who wins. To me they are the "X" factors for each team. Pretty much bank on Dirk, Duncan, and Gino being good.

Can't wait.

[lurker]

I'm glad tonight's game is earlier so that I'll have time to cry afterward and still get to sleep at a reasonable hour. :toast

[Blackjack]

Didn't Orlando in 2003 do it too? The infamous "I've always wanted to make it out of the first round" line by Tracy Mcgrady after game 4...

And Phoenix did the same to LA, IIRC. (Post-Shaq.)

[DPG21920]

This game will tell you a lot about the Spurs imo. The Mavs are going to come out playing with fire. If the Spurs can take the initial punch or even clamp them down from the start, that will go a long way to securing this series.

The Mavs seem ready to implode. Marion and Butler seem to be on edge and if the Spurs can come out and keep this one close, there will be a ton of pressure on the Mavs and they will have to trust each other.

[Seventyniner]

Impossible. They lost Game 5 to the Spurs in 2003 when the series was tied 2-2. http://www.nba.com/playoffs2003/round2_west1.html

Can't believe some Spurs fans missed that one.

I believe, though, that the stat is that the Lakers are 17-0 *at home* in game 5s when the series is tied 2-2.