Spurs shaky in the clutch

[Nikos]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/basketball/nba/specials/playoffs/2005/04/27/spurs/1.html

Time waits for no team
Crunch time struggles could doom Spurs vs. Nuggets
Posted: Wednesday April 27, 2005 4:24PM; Updated: Wednesday April 27, 2005 6:29PM

By Roland Beech/82games.com, special to SI.com

Tim Duncan
Even with Tim Duncan back on the court, the Spurs' late-game struggles may frustrate San Antonio's title hopes.
Chris Birck/NBAE via Getty Images


If you took a survey of the basketball punditry before the start of the 2004-05 playoffs, you'd probably have found that San Antonio was the consensus pick to take home the title. Indeed of SI.com's eight-pack of experts, six took the Spurs.

No surprise there. What's not to like about San Antonio? The Spurs finished second in the West behind Phoenix -- and that can be written off to Tim Duncan missing a host of games with a sprained ankle. When healthy, they appear to have the perfect mix of bona fide stars and cagey role-players, not to mention a deep bench. A balanced attack combining inside scoring, capable perimeter players, seasoned playoff performers and lockdown defense (and everyone knows that defense wins NBA championships right?) was supposed to add up to the third ring in seven years for this low-key Texas town.

Then along came the scorching Denver Nuggets who have in one game not only taken the early lead in the series, but also provoked a sudden rush of doubts about whether the Spurs are truly championship quality. Does San Antonio have an Achilles Heel? Does Denver know what it is?

The hallmark of the Spurs is supposed to be consistency. Night after night they play tight defense, execute on offense, generally go about their business and pull away from their foes in calm, convincing fashion. In games decided by 10 points or more, the Spurs boast a daunting 40-5 record.

Ah, but there's a flip side. In close games the Spurs have been vulnerable, managing only a 19-18 mark when the final margin is in single digits, and just 10-10 when the margin is five points or fewer.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, have been remarkable overall since the arrival of George Karl on the scene, but also very good in tight contests, posting an 8-2 record with Karl in games decided by five or less. So one might surmise that Denver could feel good about their chances if they could keep the game close entering the final minutes.

Since a couple of cheap buckets in garbage time can make a game seem closer than it really was, an alternative measure of team clutch performance would evaluate a team's performance over the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or in overtime when neither team was ahead by more than five points. In these circumstances the Spurs' net plus/minus was -9 this season, whereas the Nuggets were +39 with Karl and +33 all told.

By Roland Beech/82games.com, special to SI.com

It's easy to dismiss a somewhat contrived stat such as this except for the Spurs' own history: In San Antonio's '02-03 title season, the Spurs had a solid +52 "clutch plus/minus" but when they were ousted by the Lakers last season, they were in the red at -1 in the clutch. Could it be that San Antonio is genuinely a tad shaky these days when a game goes down to the wire?

Last season the top five clutch plus/minus teams were the Pacers, Lakers, Timberwolves, Knicks and Pistons. All four conference finalists made the cut, whereas the playoff teams with negative clutch tallies were just 1-5 in playoff series. This season the ledger reads as follows:
2004-05 Clutch Plus/Minus
Rank Team Clutch Plus/Minus
1 Miami +77
2 Seattle +76
3 Detroit +62
4 Indiana +57
5 Dallas +56
5 New Jersey +56
7 Chicago +45
8 Memphis +34
9 Denver +33
10 Phoenix +32
11 Washington +15
12 Philadelphia +12
13 Boston +8
14 San Antonio -9
15 Sacramento -10
16 Houston -21
Last five minutes of the 4th quarter/overtime, where neither team is ahead by more than 5.

Obviously the Rockets have already put the Mavericks in a deep hole, in no small part due to some great clutch play on Monday night in Game 2. Moreover, from a standpoint of statistical significance, the sample size leaves a lot to be desired. Nevertheless, if you're looking for the weak link in the Spurs' armor, this may be it.

Surprisingly, the problem for the Spurs in tight moments has been on defense. While the league as a whole saw field-goal percentages drop when games got to the "money minutes," the Spurs' defensive field-goal percentage allowed went up! In addition, the number of shooting fouls they have been called for has also increased in the final minutes of games up for grabs.

There is a tendency to overreact to the outcome of one game and the Spurs may yet show they were deserving of the high expectations being placed on them. Perhaps they will roll through the remainder of the series with Denver after the needed wake-up call. However, if you're a San Antonio fan you might want to hope for one thing ... that game two doesn't come down to one last possession!

[Dre_7]

Didnt read the article, but last series, especailly the ot game, we looked pretty good in the clutch (minus game 1 of course).

[slayermin]

This is dumb. Better teams win 7 games series so it doesn't matter. The pressure is on our opponents. They know the Spurs can and will blow them out.

They try to keep it close, so that gives them a 50/50 chance to win.

If it was a one game playoff, yes it might be a factor. But in a seven game series, as the great Reverend Jesse Jackson would say, the question is moot.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

What is so dumb about it, given the Spurs' fourth quarter playoff futility over the course of the last several years?

Just because the Lakers are dead doesn't mean our fourth quarter problems have suddenly solved themselves.

[Solid D]

The article ended up being neutered regarding the Spurs/Denver series. There is some merit to the Seattle stats and how effective they are in the last 5 minutes of games. Look what they did versus Sac in the 4th, for instance.

The Spurs need to put them down, early and hard.

[ducks]

well one thing spurs have manu now and he has improved and pop actually goes to him in the fourth besides duncan

[Brodels]

The Spurs still struggle at the ends of games, but not so much on the defensive end. The offense still stagnates. The Spurs can score 100 points in the first three quarters by moving the ball and getting everyone involved and then spend the entire fourth quarter throwing the ball in the post to Duncan and forcing him to carry the team for twelve minutes.

Giving Duncan the ball is rarely a bad idea, but the Spurs could solve their fourth quarter offensive woes by simply sticking with the things that usually get them leads during the first three quarters.

[slayermin]

IMO, being clutch in the playoffs is not dictated by the clutchness of a team during the regular season.

Don't get me wrong, I will be sh***ing bricks in a seventh game like all Spurs fans. But the only team that would worry me is Detroit.

[picnroll]

It's been pretty obvious that in close games the Spurs haven't had the shutdown defense at the end of the game this year that they've had in the past.

[ShoogarBear]

I think this article is spot on. The Spurs have had trouble in close games, and they go dead in the fourth quarter more than any elite team I've ever seen.

These first two games against Seattle are going to be key.

[GrandeDavid]

Um, I thought the Spurs were pretty damn clutch against Denver after Game 1. Gee, that article has been made absolutely invalid in five. Next!

[Jimcs50]

A .500 record in tight games(5 pts or fewer) is not bad.(10-10)

Providing that they do what they did all year and win 4 times(40 wins) as many games by double digits as close games(10).

So it follows in a 7 game series, the Spurs will win 3 games by 10 pts and 1 of 2 by close margins...that my friends means 4 wins no matter how you slice it.

[ca®lo]

yup... the article is true. spurs have trouble holding on the lead.. and are very vulnerable to 4th quarter collapses.. we may deny it.. but we know deep in our hearts our spurs are very prone to this.

sheesh.. but lately.. ive been proud of what were doin n 4th q's :)

[boutons]

"The hallmark of the Spurs is supposed to be consistency"

Where TF did he get that from? In the big picture over a season, over the years, yes, but per-quarter (4th loss @TOR, Sonics win 2nd qtr @SBC), per-game (Game1 vs Nuggets, loss @SAC, loss @NYK, @IND), the Spurs, all of them, as TEAM, can totally, incredibly disappear on both ends.

Even the 03 Spurs had some really bad playoff games, and needed some huge runs (ie
"positive inconsistency"), to erase a shitty, mediocre, close game, like the Game6 @DAL, and the Championship game.

The 2nd best overall record is Fool's Gold in the playoffs. The season mediocrity of the Spurs on the road, and in close season games, could be as important as their ability to blow teams out "when the Spurs feel like it". Winning both games @DEN was a huge boost in my confidence in these Spurs (but it's only the Spurs confidendence in themselves that counts) , offsetting where TF were the Spurs in Game1.

The close games, Spurs either ahead or behind, maintaining a lead/overcoming a deficit, are Pop's "tests", and this year's record close-games record, as the article states, shows the Spurs haven't been superior in clutchness in the season.

That's why somebody's stat of last week or so about the the Spurs being very successful in games where the difference was 10+ pts is perfectly indicative of ... nothing.

btw, the 2 horrendously bad 7th games yesterday are the exceptions that prove the rule. In the playoffs, the games, esp elimination games, are typically much closer differentials than in the season. "you could look it up".

What's clutchness in basketball terms? In crunch time:

Drawing fouls (by playing tough in the crowded paint on both ends, by driving rather than jumpshooting) and making the FTs. (but it was last week "proved" that bad FT % doesn't mean shit). In close playoff games (most playoff games are close rather than not), the points differential is often on the order of FTs missed.

Hitting shots (not collectively missing 17 straight 4th qtr shots), preferably by driving and in the paint vs jumpshooting.

Getting stops,

Getting RBs.

============================

The scariest aspect of the Suns is not that they blow you out (they really don't because they don't play defense), but that they just keep consistently making their shots, drip, drip, drip, and when the opponent has a couple of dry runs late in the game, the Suns catch up/pull ahead, where it's very hard to catch them, since the Suns are probably the best in not having their own dry runs.

I've seen so many games this season where the Suns are behind or slightly ahead for 44 minutes, then continue to hit their shots in crunch time while the other team stumbles every so slightly on a couple possessions. Suns W by a few points.

[pjjrfan]

I think that the Spur's may have solved their late game swoons thanks to the Dallas blow-out late in the season. Right after that they won those two exciting back to back ot games which without TD they would have lost. But that Mavs blowout brought out a yet unseen toughness from the Spurs and a large part of it was the emergence of Nazr as a guy who refuses to get pushed around. Up until that game I was a vocal Nazr hater, but that game showed me a side of Nazr that I had not seen, and he has continued with that aggressive play although he still has moments where he is totally lost he does not stop banging and fighting.

This team now is a lot tougher and especially mentally than earlier in the season when the Sonics physcially dominated them in both their wins. And as Denver found out, looks can be decieving. They never won another game, 3 of which were tightly fought battles.

[boutons]

"may have solved their late game swoons"

4th qtr collapses are one of the perennial, defining characteristics of the Spurs.

If the Spurs are toughened more after the first round, they will fly to Seattle 2-0.

[T Park]

The Spurs have had trouble in close games

Yeah I could tell in games 3 4 and 5 against Denver.

[boutons]

"the Spurs will win 3 games by 10 pts and 1 of 2 by close margins"

no, it doesn't. Spurs' competition in the playoffs will be much tougher than in the season, so the season record doesn't accurately, usefully extrapolate into the playoffs.

Somebody do the same "Spurs in close games" analysis for games:

1) since 1 Jan (first 2 months are too distant to be relevant in the playoffs) and
2) against the 8 WC seeds and
3) against the top 4 EC seeds.

The same close-game analysis for home vs road would be "interesting"

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Yeah TPark, and we all know that a sorry punk ass Denver team plays at the same level of the likes of Detroit, Miami, and Phoenix.

This is why you and I disagree on Pop so much. You can go back the last 5 years in the playoffs, and we do nothing but fuck up fourth quarters.

Pop has his system, and the one underlying issue with it is that it is prone to breakdown in the fourth quarter when he tries to make Tim the closer, after going through Manu and Tony, most recently, in quarters 1-3 has gotten us a lead.

But he can't do anything wrong, it's all the players fault. Or something like that.