Hollinger: Underdogs turning West upside-down (Insider)

[jiggy_55]

Could somebody please post this insider article by Hollinger on ESPN? Much appreciated!!

[spurs_2108]

SALT LAKE CITY -- Remember, oh, say a week ago, when it looked like Utah's season was basically over? Mehmet Okur had just blown his Achilles and was out for the season, Andrei Kirilenko was declared out for at least the first round, the Jazz had just lost their playoff opener against a seasoned Denver team and they lacked home-court advantage.

Just one week later, the situation couldn't look rosier for the Jazz, considering the circumstances. They've won three straight to take command of their first-round series with the Nuggets and will have three more shots to eliminate Denver and advance to the second round.

If and when they get there, they'll be in better shape, too. No, Okur won't be coming back, but Ukrainian giant Kyrylo Fesenko has proved he can provide some competent minutes in his place. Meanwhile, if he doesn't have another setback, Kirilenko will be back at some point in the next round, which would shore up a defense that has missed his length on the wings.

And here's the really crazy part: The Jazz might be the highest-seeded team left in the Western bracket when the second round begins. If so, they'll take one of the league's best home-court advantages forward for the rest of the Western Conference playoffs, as they try to win the West for the first time since the playoff run that ended with Michael Jordan's famous jumper.

While some balls still need to bounce into place, there's no doubt that Jazz fans woke up this morning pondering the tantalizing prospect of facing the eighth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round rather than their longtime foils from Los Angeles. Jazz fans of a historical bent undoubtedly will note that their last run to the conference finals came in similar circumstances, when they knocked off Houston without home-court advantage in the first round before beating an eighth-seeded Golden State squad in the following series.

That Utah team was humbled by San Antonio in the conference finals, and the bracket makes it possible that we could see a rematch. But this time, the Jazz would have home-court advantage in that round too. In fact, with second-seeded Dallas on the ropes and third-seeded Phoenix struggling to squeeze past Portland, it's possible all four Western Conference underdogs could advance.

How possible? More than you might think.

Let's start with the two upsets that we can throw in the "likely" category. Historically, teams down 3-to-1 in a best-of-seven series have a 95.8 percent failure rate, so it's not looking good for either the Mavericks or the Nuggets. However, teams in their particular position -- owning home-court advantage and thus needing to win only one road game -- have done slightly better. In that situation, they lose 89.7 percent of the time. They usually at least survive Game 5, winning 70.7 percent of those on their home floor.

So while we can't quite write the Jazz in ink in Round 2, if they do advance there's an 89.7 percent chance that San Antonio will be joining them, to judge from history. Were the Spurs and Jazz to win the conference semifinals, too, then Utah would host the conference finals.

(Side note: Interestingly, wins by Utah and San Antonio would fly directly in the face of another trend. In first-round series, teams without home-court advantage that also lost the regular-season series have lost 41 straight times. Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami and Oklahoma City are the other teams dealing with that historical fact.)

On the other hand, the Lakers and Suns are in much better shape than people realize despite their series being tied 2-2, according to NBA history. The numbers say that a team with home-court advantage tied at 2-2 is in about as good a position as it was when the series was 0-0, winning 77.3 percent of the time in that situation.

We can adjust that number down slightly to reflect a key difference in these particular two series: that they appear to be roughly evenly matches. A lot of the previous series that were tied 2-2 weren't really "even," if you get my drift. For an obvious example, remember when the 66-win Celtics played the 37-win Hawks two years ago.

In the cases of L.A. and Phoenix, however, you can make a compelling case that the underdog is playing at least as well. If you compare the Lakers' performance over the past two and a half months to that of the Thunder, one might be inclined to say Oklahoma City is, in fact, the better team: Since the All-Star break the Thunder are 22-13, while the Lakers are 18-14.

Similarly, the Blazers' 22-10 mark since a Brandon Roy-less win in Phoenix on Feb. 10 isn't altogether different from the Suns' 25-9 in that time frame; in games Roy plays the numbers are 19-7 against 23-7.

In other words, while it's a tortuous process to determine whether these teams are exactly even, it takes relatively little effort to see that they're approximately even.

That fact makes it very easy to model their probabilities of success going forward. Let's start with the one basic fact: Home teams won 60.2 percent of their games this year. If you presume an even matchup between the two teams, let's have that serve as our starting point. (Side note: Historically, playoff home teams have won at a similar clip.)

If that's the case, and we're trying to model a best-of-three scenario, then the Lakers are 55.3 percent likely to advance, as are the Suns, considerably less than the historical odds would indicate for a team with home-court advantage. By the way, those chances are only slightly worse than they were before Game 1, when we'd expect them to prevail 57.8 percent of the time.

While we're on the topic, three of the four teams in the East have virtually no chance of losing. Cleveland and Boston are up 3-1 with home-court advantage, a situation in which teams are 129-2 historically for a 98.5 percent success rate. Orlando, up 3-0, is in a situation in which no team has lost; Boston, which also led 3-0 before losing Sunday, technically still qualifies there as well.

The only Eastern team with any realistic chance at losing is Atlanta. Teams in the Hawks' position -- up 2-1 with home-court advantage -- win the series 89.2 percent of the time. With a win Monday night, they would join the other three high seeds in the East as near-certainties to advance.

So the really interesting stuff is out West. And now that we've talked about the possibility of four upsets there, let's look at the cumulative likelihood. What are the odds of the Jazz being the top seed left in the West next week?

If we assign 55.3 percent odds of advancing to the Lakers and Phoenix, respectively, it means 44.7 percent odds that they'll be knocked out. Combine it with the 89.7 percent chance of Dallas and Denver each falling by the wayside, and we're looking at a 16.1 percent chance that the four top seeds in the West will be gone at the end of Round 1.

So it's a small chance, but still, relative to the probability before this all started, it's huge. That's a plausible, 1-in-6 chance of the unprecedented phenomenon of the top four seeds in the West all losing in the first round.

It would take an improbable turn of events, in other words, but not as improbable as the events that led the Jazz to take over this series by winning the past three games. For a Utah team that seemed to have such hard luck just a week ago, suddenly all the stars may be aligning in its favor.

[jiggy_55]

Thanks! :toast

[Baseline]

I think Hollinger forgot to factor in the Laker refs.

Beleive me, the calls LA will get in Game 5 will push the limits of reality.

[mookie2001]

People pay for this shit?

[Dex]

Need a goddamn calculator for that article.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

The powers that be will not let the Lakers lose to OKC.

[Mr Bones]

I guess the Powers That Be took the year off when the Spurs swept the Cavs in the finals a few years ago. Having LeBron win in 7 games would have brought all kinds of money and attention and high ratings to the NBA, and yet it didn't happen. I wonder why?

[Pero]

I guess the Powers That Be took the year off when the Spurs swept the Cavs in the finals a few years ago. Having LeBron win in 7 games would have brought all kinds of money and attention and high ratings to the NBA, and yet it didn't happen. I wonder why?

Uh maybe because the Cavs sucked too much in comparison with the Spurs for anyone to be able to help them?

[Bambililos]

Nice read. It's not sports analysis, it's maths, but I like the switch of focus.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I guess the Powers That Be took the year off when the Spurs swept the Cavs in the finals a few years ago. Having LeBron win in 7 games would have brought all kinds of money and attention and high ratings to the NBA, and yet it didn't happen. I wonder why?

My comment was actually more tongue-in-cheek than anything else, but if you want to push the issue you can see how certain stars get the benefit of many subtle calls, as do the big market teams for that matter.

If OKC is clearly the better team and can keep building big, insurmountable leads they should do just fine. Durrant is the league's next big thing, after all.

San Antonio was just too good to lose in their 4 title runs, in spite of what the commish would have preferred. The powers that be were helpless to stop the carnage that unfolded as San Antonio crushed those that stood in their path.

Ask Sacramento fans how a close series between a league power and a no-name turns out for the down trodden.

[Seventyniner]

Seeds 5-8 advancing would be freaking great.

However, the 60.2 home win percent in the playoffs probably includes all rounds; I'd expect a higher number historically for the first round.

[guzmangm]

I think Hollinger forgot to factor in the Laker refs.

Beleive me, the calls LA will get in Game 5 will push the limits of reality.

Ha, right? The Jordan factor or Kobe/Laker factor if you will...

[Supergirl]

Lakers will win in 7, but they will be exhausted and very vulnerable to a hungry, tough Utah team in the next round.

Phx-Pdx is tough for me to call. Phx should be running all over this beat up Pdx team, but this beat up Pdx team has defied all expectations all season, so at this point I'd put my money on them to pull the upset. I'd rather face Phx, if I'm SA. Pdx scares me a little more. They're a wild card.

[Bukefal]

Thanks for posting this :toast

[Nathan Explosion]

I'm far from a Laker fan, but if I were, I wouldn't be too worried that OKC wins the series. I'd be worried about the Lakers' play, but I don't see OKC winning a Game 7 in LA if it came to that.

The playoffs are an entirely different animal and it took the Thunder some time to figure that out. A Game 7 on top of that will eat the Thunder up, especially in LA IMO. I wouldn't be surprised to see a blowout, like the Boston/Chicago series last year.

If I'm Utah, I'm praying for OKC to pull the upset. I don't see Utah handling LA's frontcourt.

As for the Spurs, with the inspired ball they're playing, I wouldn't fear anyone, just a healthy does of respect to add to the energy and intensity that is playoff basketball.

[Jason R]

My comment was actually more tongue-in-cheek than anything else, but if you want to push the issue you can see how certain stars get the benefit of many subtle calls, as do the big market teams for that matter.

If OKC is clearly the better team and can keep building big, insurmountable leads they should do just fine. Durrant is the league's next big thing, after all.

San Antonio was just too good to lose in their 4 title runs, in spite of what the commish would have preferred. The powers that be were helpless to stop the carnage that unfolded as San Antonio crushed those that stood in their path.

Ask Sacramento fans how a close series between a league power and a no-name turns out for the down trodden.

This is "just-so" magic. Wave your hand, trot out some semi-believable theories to a willing to believe audience, and voila.

[bonnington]

Well, is not like the 5-8 seed in the west had 10+ less wins than the 1-4 seeds. The margin was very thin. ( I am too lazy to check out the exact stats, but I think is more or less like that)

The East is different. There is a huge difference there.

So this happening is not that BIG of a surprise.

[kace]

well, is not like the 5-8 seed in the west had 10+ less wins than the 1-4 seeds. The margin was very thin. ( i am too lazy to check out the exact stats, but i think is more or less like that)

the east is different. There is a huge difference there.

So this happening is not that big of a surprise.

+1

[bonnington]

+1

Cool We agree, I don't remember we did it at least once back in the day in the other forum. Nice to see you again.

[Pero]

Lakers will win in 7, but they will be exhausted and very vulnerable to a hungry, tough Utah team in the next round.

Phx-Pdx is tough for me to call. Phx should be running all over this beat up Pdx team, but this beat up Pdx team has defied all expectations all season, so at this point I'd put my money on them to pull the upset. I'd rather face Phx, if I'm SA. Pdx scares me a little more. They're a wild card.

Pdx? What? Why are you calling Portland Pdx?

[Halberto]

There is a better chance that all of the underdogs will win than there is of Dallas coming back :lol

[kace]

Cool We agree, I don't remember we did it at least once back in the day in the other forum. Nice to see you again.

that's because i didn't realize that was you ;) (and indeed, that is true).

nice to see you here. well, i think that i will translate a little article from a french sportsite about manu and how he's perceived in argentina, stuff like that. I wasn't sure it would be very interesting but for you, i have no doubt it will. i'll do that tomorrow, i found it great, and not usual, to see something written especially about manu in the main french sportsite.

here the link:http://www.lequipe.fr/Basket/breves2010/20100426_130939_ginobili-le-gendre-ideal.html "Ginobili, the ideal son-in-law (french expression)"

the translation will come tomorrow, i'm going to sleep.

[bonnington]

Merci Kace, I will appreciate it!

[spursrocks]

lakers will still win it in 7. theres a chance phoenix will lose to portland. i hope spurs will finish dallas in 5

[ShoogarBear]

Pdx? What? Why are you calling Portland Pdx?

That's the three-letter airport code for Portland's airport.

[manu the best]

Need a goddamn calculator for that article.


:lol

[kace]

Merci Kace, I will appreciate it!

OK, that's here: http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=4287461#post4287461

[Pero]

That's the three-letter airport code for Portland's airport.

Ohhhhh.... Thank you.

[MateoNeygro]

The powers that be will not let the Lakers lose to OKC.

Sad but True.