Hollinger: Spurs-Suns series may decide West (Insider)

[jiggy_55]

Would appreciate if someone could post this Insider article from Espn, seems like it could be an interesting read. Thanks in advance :toast

[scottspurs]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100430

Written by John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

From surprise endings to busted noses, the Spurs-Suns rivalry has been through it all in the playoffs.
With apologies to fans of the Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets and Thunder, I think we have our Western Conference finalists. Unfortunately, they're playing each other in the second round.

San Antonio and Phoenix were the West's two hottest teams entering the playoffs, ranking second and third, respectively, in my Power Rankings at the end of the regular season. Only Utah had a better point differential, as both squads closed with a bang -- the Suns finished on a 28-7 tear, while the Spurs went 18-8 against an impossible stretch of schedule.

What makes this series really special, of course, is the history. Phoenix and San Antonio met in a contentious, memorable 2007 series that led to Steve Nash's gushing nose in the opening game, suspensions for Suns forwards Boris Diaw and Amare Stoudemire in Game 5 and the Spurs winning the series in six games. Much like this year's series, that one was a conference semifinal but also the de facto West championship, as the Spurs lost just once in the final two rounds en route to their fourth title.

Two years earlier, in 2005, the Spurs had an easier time beating Phoenix in five games after the Suns lost guard Joe Johnson to a broken bone in his face in the conference semifinals. And in 2008, the Suns and Spurs met again, with San Antonio winning the first-round series in five games after Tim Duncan's first 3-pointer of the season tied Game 1 at the buzzer and sent the Suns reeling.

There are ironic parallels, as well. When Steve Kerr, a Spur for four of his final five seasons, took over as Suns general manager in 2007, he tried to model the teams after San Antonio. He went as far as to hire one-time Spur Terry Porter as his coach and tried to instill a half-court style that flew in the face of the Suns' seven-seconds-or-less approach.

Thankfully, Phoenix abandoned that approach and has returned to its up-tempo ways. Instead, it's the Spurs who have become more like Phoenix. San Antonio still gets Duncan his touches on the block, but it has increasingly become an up-tempo, guard-oriented team that spaces the floor and gets its offense from backcourt players Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and George Hill. Belying their rep as a defensive juggernaut, the Spurs finished the regular season ranked just as highly on offense (ninth in efficiency) as on defense.


This infamous '07 shoving match is just one of the many times the Spurs and Suns have tussled.
Instead, we're left with an entertaining battle that looks too close to call on paper. I saw these two teams play twice in person, but both felt like anomalies, so I'm not sure how much we can learn from them. The first was in mid-December, when neither team had hit its stride, and the second was an April game in which the Spurs started Garrett Temple at point guard. Temple will be lucky to don a uniform in this series, let alone play, so using that game as a barometer seems pointless.

On paper, this is about as close to a coin-toss series as you can get. Let's take a look at a few of the variables that likely will decide the winner:

• Health: Steve Nash's hip. Manu Ginobili's nose. Tony Parker's foot. Tim Duncan's knees. Most players are battling some minor ding or another by this time of the year, but the problems seem particularly acute among the Western contenders. This series in particular, with an every-other-day schedule until Game 7, has the potential to wear down the participants further.

They're already at less-than-full strength. Nash was useless for most of Game 6 against Portland because a hip strain acted up, and the Suns will be hard-pressed to win the series if he can't recover during the three off days.

For San Antonio, Ginobili had a monstrous final two months of the season, but broke his nose in the series against Dallas and struggled for three games before scoring 26 in the clincher. Parker, who came off the bench in the first round, is battling plantar fasciitis that's robbed him of some of his breathtaking quickness. And Duncan, of course, has sore knees that may have contributed to his underwhelming performance in Games 4 and 5 against Dallas.

• Bench: The story of the benches in this series will not only be about how they play, but about how they're used. Phoenix is going to go much deeper and play its subs much more often than San Antonio will. At times, the Suns will play a five-man bench unit of Goran Dragic, Leandro Barbosa, Jared Dudley, Louis Amundson and Channing Frye. The Suns' subs have been devastatingly effective, but they're also going to be playing a lot more against opposing starters this series.

The Spurs, on the other hand, mostly used six players in the first round, and only eight players saw action in all six games against the Mavs. Look for Parker to see extensive minutes off the pine. Otherwise, only Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair are assured to play. Blair, in particular, won't play much -- only for 10 minutes while Tim Duncan takes a breather -- and deeper subs like Roger Mason and Keith Bogans will likely only see brief cameos.

• Small ball: The most interesting tactical question in the series is how the two sides will line up at the power forward spot. Both teams have a nominal starter -- Jarron Collins for Phoenix, Antonio McDyess for San Antonio -- who is likely to sit in crunch time. Collins has more use in this series than the last one because of his post defense against Duncan, but the Suns usually only use him for the first six minutes of each half.

Down the stretch, expect either Frye, the floor-spacing big man, or Dudley, the little-things specialist, to man the position, with Dudley the more likely to get the call since the Suns struggle to defend when Frye and Stoudemire play in the frontcourt together.

Another option is to play even smaller with Nash and either Dragic or Barbosa at the guards, and Jason Richardson and Grant Hill at forward. That look could be particularly tempting if the Spurs are playing Hill and Parker together in the backcourt, which they'll likely do for long stretches.

San Antonio, in fact, is likely to match the Suns' arrangement by limiting McDyess to 25 minutes or so -- most of those matched up on Stoudemire -- and playing Richard Jefferson or Bonner at the 4 the rest of the time. San Antonio doesn't need a true big man to guard Frye and will want the extra speed on the court if the Suns are playing their greyhounds.

As a result, I'd expect Stoudemire and Duncan to be the only big men on the court over the last six minutes of each game, especially if fouls aren't an issue on either side.

• Karma: We've built up Spurs-Suns as a big rivalry, but you know the old saying: It's not really a rivalry until both teams have won when it matters. Thus far, it's been all Spurs, which means it's a huge rivalry to the Suns and pretty much another game for San Antonio. The Spurs, in fact, just vanquished their most-hated rival last round when they dispensed with Dallas.

You can't help thinking the basketball gods owe Phoenix one after the Johnson injury in 2005, the nose-gusher and the suspensions in 2007 and Duncan's unlikely triple in 2008.

Or maybe the Suns are destined to continue their star-crossed history. The Suns have basically been the pre-2004 Red Sox of the NBA -- they have no titles, but all sorts of unlikely playoff losses and near-misses dot a résumé that otherwise matches that of any NBA franchise.

On the court, this will be a nonissue as long as none of the players dwell on it. As both Nash and Suns coach Alvin Gentry pointed out after the win over Portland, the Suns have a lot of new players and only three of them (Nash, Stoudemire and Barbosa) took part in the previous Suns-Spurs battles. Where it might be a problem is if something unfortunate happens early in the series, and then they have to deal with folks like us asking them about it every day for two weeks.

Despite Phoenix's unfortunate history, however, I think the Suns have enough talent at present to get through. Nash isn't at peak efficiency, but Stoudemire and Richardson have been fantastic and the Suns have the best bench in the West. San Antonio is a formidable opponent, but between the home-court advantage and the torrid finish -- even with Nash weakened, the Suns handed Portland three of its four worst losses of the season last round -- it seems to me this is the year Phoenix breaks through and makes this a true rivalry.

Mostly because they have home-court advantage and I have to pick somebody, I'm predicting the Suns to win this series in seven games.

[Duff McCartney]

You can't help thinking the basketball gods owe Phoenix one after the Johnson injury in 2005, the nose-gusher and the suspensions in 2007 and Duncan's unlikely triple in 2008.

What a dumbass...this is sports, nobody is owed anything. As the Wedding Crashers rules go...No excuses, play like a champion.

[sa_butta]

What an idiot to just write off the Lakers so soon. While the Spurs and Suns and playing their best ball right now the Lakers are still the team to beat.

[TimmehC]

McDyess likely to sit in crunch time in favor of small ball? Dude's lost his gotdamn mind.

[lefty]

Mostly because they have home-court advantage and I have to pick somebody, I'm predicting the Suns to win this series in seven games.

Suns had the HCA in 2005 and 2007

Hollinger is such a dumbass

[Trainwreck2100]

why are the Suns owed for Amare being a dumbass

[spursfan1000]

Suns had the HCA in 2005 and 2007

Hollinger is such a dumbass

LOL, and I guess Spurs have proved they cannot win on road :depressed ---sarcastic

[#2!]

lol quick everybody go back to hating hollinger before people see us with him for the Dallas series

[Allanon]

I agreed with Hollinger when he said the Spurs would make it to the WCF.
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=149452&highlight=trollinger

But they ain't gettin' past the Lakers due to matchup problems.

[NFGIII]

What an idiot to just write off the Lakers so soon. While the Spurs and Suns and playing their best ball right now the Lakers are still the team to beat.

Matter of opinion. Right now the LAL aren't playing all that great. In fact they aren't even near the level they were at this time last season. And I really don't think that they will just flip the switch, either. Kobe is banged up and not playing at the level we all know he is capable of. If Kobe can't be Kobe then they are a very good but not a great team. That makes them vulnerable to being had. So I think Hollinger is basing his opinion on what is going on now rather than taking the position of "until they are beaten they are still the champs and therefore the favorites" line of thinking.

Just saying

Spurs in 6 over the Suns

:flag:

[blkroadrunners]

Hollinger did pick the Spurs in 6 against the Mavs though...

[phxspurfan]

Yeah writing off the Lakers is foolish. There are 4 teams in the west that will contend to get in the WCF pretty strongly -- LA, Utah, SA and Phoenix. He's just using this article to refer back to his stupid rankings.

[honestfool84]

why are the Suns owed for Amare being a dumbass



on a side note.. you should change your GIF signature..

i don't care WHAT the girl did to the guy, in no circumstance EVER should a man hit a woman, even if it's "sweeping the leg".

that's extremely disrespectful..

i completely understand that it's a joke... but come on man, it's disgusting every time i see it.

[lefty]

I agreed with Hollinger when he said the Spurs would make it to the WCF.
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=149452&highlight=trollinger

But they ain't gettin' past the Lakers due to matchup problems.
Not anymore

Have you seen Dice on Lodom this season?

[kace]

on a side note.. you should change your GIF signature..

i don't care WHAT the girl did to the guy, in no circumstance EVER should a man hit a woman, even if it's "sweeping the leg".

that's extremely disrespectful..

i completely understand that it's a joke... but come on man, it's disgusting every time i see it.

+ 1

the one with the man (obviously drunk) who hit the woman he's dancing with is the same thing. nothing funny there.

[Supergirl]

McDyess likely to sit in crunch time in favor of small ball? Dude's lost his gotdamn mind.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Did he watch the Spurs-Mavs series at all? Dice will be there as much as fouls allow. He will be on Amare much of the time, and I predict will be very effective.

I also think he underestimates how much time Blair could use. Blair is undersized but that won't matter as much against the Suns, and he has a toughness that the Suns lack. I suspect he will have a couple important games against the Suns.

[DocDoc]

Don't be hating Hollinger - he did pick the Spurs to beat the Mavs and is only picking Suns because they have home court.

Spurs win one of first two and we will see.

That said, this is going to be a weird series. Suns have improved defensively and the Spurs can play small and fast with Hill and Jefferson contributing. Whoever can force the matchups they want will win.

Doc

[jack sommerset]

+ 1

the one with the man (obviously drunk) who hit the woman he's dancing with is the same thing. nothing funny there.

:lmao Naw, that is funny too!

[Leetonidas]

on a side note.. you should change your GIF signature..

i don't care WHAT the girl did to the guy, in no circumstance EVER should a man hit a woman, even if it's "sweeping the leg".

that's extremely disrespectful..

i completely understand that it's a joke... but come on man, it's disgusting every time i see it.

Please. It's this kinda stupid attitude that gives women the idea that it's fine for them to slap, punch, hit, etc, a guy and nothing should come of it. I don't agree with hitting women either but he didn't really hit her, he mostly just tripped her. And the bitch deserved it anyway.



Back on topic, fuck the Suns, and I can see why Hollinger picked them, but we're gonna bully dem niggas.

[DJB]

I agreed with Hollinger when he said the Spurs would make it to the WCF.
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=149452&highlight=trollinger

But they ain't gettin' past the Lakers due to matchup problems.

Who says you're making it to the WCF?

[Manufan909]

Please. It's this kinda stupid attitude that gives women the idea that it's fine for them to slap, punch, hit, etc, a guy and nothing should come of it. I don't agree with hitting women either but he didn't really hit her, he mostly just tripped her. And the bitch deserved it anyway.



Back on topic, fuck the Suns, and I can see why Hollinger picked them, but we're gonna bully dem niggas.

+1 There is a myraid number of good reasons for a chick to get hit by a guy. Stuff like abuse is not cool, though. But if a woman attacks me in any way, my survival instincts don't kick in just to tell me not to react, cuz the bitch is part of the "weaker sex".

[silverblk mystix]

Please. It's this kinda stupid attitude that gives women the idea that it's fine for them to slap, punch, hit, etc, a guy and nothing should come of it. I don't agree with hitting women either but he didn't really hit her, he mostly just tripped her. And the bitch deserved it anyway.



Back on topic, fuck the Suns, and I can see why Hollinger picked them, but we're gonna bully dem niggas.

...umm...ok KOBE

[RodNIc91]

Not anymore

Have you seen Dice on Lodom this season?


Actually You are wrong. The reason we won the first game against them was because of the abscence of kobe. The second game we won was because pop adjusted the matchups so that RJ matched Odom's speed and dice or bonner went to Artest to match his strength. Make no mistake

[DAF86]

Why do people get so angry when a sports writer picks against their team?

[TampaDude]

Please. It's this kinda stupid attitude that gives women the idea that it's fine for them to slap, punch, hit, etc, a guy and nothing should come of it. I don't agree with hitting women either but he didn't really hit her, he mostly just tripped her. And the bitch deserved it anyway.


WERD...a brutha's gotta keep that pimp hand (or leg) strong! :hat

[TampaDude]

Why do people get so angry when a sports writer picks against their team?

I think it's more amusement than anger... :lol

[Mr. Body]

Hollinger gets way too much grief on Spurstalk. But it's unexpected. Fans like to feel persecuted by any and all sports pundits. It's warranted at times, but Hollinger seems like an honest guy to me, as opposed to some ESPN wankers. He has a different slant. Sometimes it doesn't work, but none of it is exact.

[TampaDude]

Hollinger gets way too much grief on Spurstalk. But it's unexpected. Fans like to feel persecuted by any and all sports pundits. It's warranted at times, but Hollinger seems like an honest guy to me, as opposed to some ESPN wankers. He has a different slant. Sometimes it doesn't work, but none of it is exact.

Heh...Hollinger ain't all that bad...when it comes to rampant douchebaggery, Kiper has Hollinger beat by a mile. :lol

[TD 21]

I agreed with Hollinger when he said the Spurs would make it to the WCF.
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=149452&highlight=trollinger

But they ain't gettin' past the Lakers due to matchup problems.

They are if the Lakers foolishly continue to trot out the hobbled Bynum in a series that they're going to have limited trouble getting through. I don't know what they're doing risking his health, when his mere presence is the difference between probably making it to the finals and have a puncher's chance or potentially being eliminated in the conference finals. The guy is limping around and they're playing him in a second round series against a team that matches up terribly with them? Unbelievably stupid decision that could easily backfire on them.

You take him out and all of a sudden, size-wise the Spurs can easily matchup with the Lakers. Granted, Gasol and Odom are more mobile than Duncan and McDyess, but it's 7-0 250 and 6-10 230 vs 6-11 240 and 6-9 245. Then there's the trickle down effect. Odom starts, which robes the Lakers of their one reliable bench player and means scrubs like Powell and Mbenga will be forced into spot minutes. Which allows Blair, a productive scorer and rebounder, to not only have a logical matchup in this series which he otherwise wouldn't have, but have an advantageous one at that if his minutes are matched against either of theirs.

Hollinger, why would McDyess not be out there at crunch time? Barring foul trouble, the Spurs will want him out there to defend Stoudemire. Why would the Suns close with Dudley in? That would mean Stoudemire would have to defend Duncan, which is never a good idea and something I don't expect them to resort to.

[Fundamental]

Basketball gods owe the Suns this series? Nonsense.

[TheSullyMonster]

on a side note.. you should change your GIF signature..

i don't care WHAT the girl did to the guy, in no circumstance EVER should a man hit a woman, even if it's "sweeping the leg".

that's extremely disrespectful..

i completely understand that it's a joke... but come on man, it's disgusting every time i see it.

Using firefox?

Rightclick, block images from...

Done.

[UnWantedTheory]

on a side note.. you should change your GIF signature..

i don't care WHAT the girl did to the guy, in no circumstance EVER should a man hit a woman, even if it's "sweeping the leg".

that's extremely disrespectful..

i completely understand that it's a joke... but come on man, it's disgusting every time i see it.

Drama queen.
Under no circumstance? Say that after a woman comes flying at you with a knife. I understand that the douche who "swept her leg" in the GIF needs to be slapped around if not more, but come one bro, it is not that big of a deal. Its a GIF. We have all watched movies that promote more violent activities toward woman,childeren,etc. than that; but we still find the movies entertaining do we not? It may not be hilarious, but it is not a huge deal. If someone is to believe these Gifs & pics to be disturbing or supportive of indecent acts, than either block them, or choose to post at a more "controlled" & "decent" enviornment that does not utterly disgust you. This is the real world & that shit happens everyday from the scum of the earth. I call them FUCKSCUM. But it is the way it is. I laughed once at the GIF & moved on. Do I wish I could beat that guy who did it? Of course I do. But I, as a person, have to find the humor in humanity & our ugly savage nature. What else do we have. Try your best not fuck up, & punish those who do accordingly. To bad that isnt the way it really is.

[rascal]

The Lakers are winning the west.

[Muser]

Pretty stupid to think winner of this is going to the finals.