spursfaninla
05-01-2010, 01:36 PM
Sure, the spurs beat Dallas in 6, but the games were almost all close. Even the 10+ spread games were down to the wire until the last minute or so. We saw the Spurs find their 3rd gear defensively this series, and it was a thing of beauty. That alone leads us to believe these spurs have found their fire again and can contend with anyone.
But this Phx team is very dangerous. Spurs fans remember us owning PHx the last 4+ times we met in the playoffs, but I remember feeling, as a fellow fan here expressed, that the spurs were playing bomb squad; played carefully, we could handle them, but one false move and they could blow us up. I feel the same way with this current manifestation of Phx.
With that in mind, these are the things that the Spurs need to do. Some are things they already have shown they can do (control tempo, control 3pt threats), but I think we also have to change some things.
1) Tempo.
Our ability to control the tempo against dallas won us the game, no doubt. Dallas has 2 starters (marion and kidd) who are much more effective in transition than in the half court. When they were able to run, even generate quick scores off of spurs made baskets, they were unstoppable. When we slowed them down, we squeezed the life out of their offense and bent them to our will.
If we do that to Phx, we should win. Phx has the shooters to still play in the half court, and Amare can score in the post, but the question is, are they disciplined enough to handle the frustration of our defense consistently?
Bottom line, if they get enough fast breaks, we are in trouble. If not, we should win more than we lose.
2) Will duncan score inconsistently 1/3 of his games next series?
Duncan's defense was important in all of the spurs victories. But for games 4 and 5, he was not generating the post scoring that we are used to seeing. Game 4, he was tired as shit from being over-played (more than 40 minutes), and game 5 was kind of a throw-away because it would have been a 4th victory in a row in an away game.
I am not confident the spurs can beat phx without consistent post scoring. Phx has basically no post scoring (like dallas). Unlike Dallas, I expect phx to shoot a higher percentage than the Spurs if we don't get lots of easy post scoring. Duncan (and perhaps blair) are our only hope in this regard. Duncan was overplayed (led team in minutes with 37-38/game). I don't think duncan will survive the playoffs at that rate. If duncan gets the ball enough without having to play too much, I guess this can be solved, but I think blair needs to get significant minutes and attack.
3) playing more than 6.5 player rotation?
This is connected to the over-playing duncan issue. Currently, we are playing our starters and Tony significant minutes, which is fine. What it does mean is the spurs either have to play RJ big minutes, or will have some 3 guard line-ups out there when he is not playing. I prefer that to centerpiece time, but recognize that phx will try to coax us into a shootout/baller pace, which is probably not in our best interest.
Now for the front court: Bonner and Blair are getting the rest of the minutes there, which would also be fine. Problem: although bonner/blair are combining for about 20-25 minutes between them, that is deception, because they played extra minutes when we got blown out. For instance, the starting front court plays 96-25=71/2; 35 minutes each, sounds fine.
But last series Duncan averaged 37 WITH only playing 24 in the blowout game. He played the following minutes in contested games: 40, 35, 43, 36, 42
blair/bonner minutes in these games: 27, 29, 18, 19, 17.
It is one thing to say, well, we are playing about 7 guys, with blair/bonner combining for about 20 minutes. However, Duncan is playing more and dice less, and that is out of necessity. Duncan playing shitty in 2 games was the result. Blair, as our only other real post threat, probably has to step up to change that.
4) Triples. A) Make them. We lacked them outside of Hill for an entire series, and Suns excelled at them during the regular series as well as in the first round. I don't know if we can keep up with this team if we don't make some 3's also, because good 3pt shooting translates into crazy point per shot efficiency. Sure, they will get fewer fts that way, but they have slashers too.
As a counter-point, Dallas looked like a very good 3pt team, with Kidd and Terry as good threats, which we shut down. However, that also is deceiving. Kidd is not a slashing threat, so just running him off the line works. Not so with the phx threats. Also, phx has about 6 guys who shoot the 3, unlike dallas with just a few.
B) prevent them. I think we have to play on the shooters for phx, and NOT leave open 3pt shooters. We dared Terry to shoot many open 3pt shots; we are committing suicide if we do that to phx.
Conclusion:
Overall, I must admit I would love to see blair step up. It is needed if we are to make it further in the playoffs, to save duncan for the next 2 rounds. The other stuff is really dependent on the schemes the team uses, which I think we can do. I think we are able to take phx, but it will be even harder than in past years.
But this Phx team is very dangerous. Spurs fans remember us owning PHx the last 4+ times we met in the playoffs, but I remember feeling, as a fellow fan here expressed, that the spurs were playing bomb squad; played carefully, we could handle them, but one false move and they could blow us up. I feel the same way with this current manifestation of Phx.
With that in mind, these are the things that the Spurs need to do. Some are things they already have shown they can do (control tempo, control 3pt threats), but I think we also have to change some things.
1) Tempo.
Our ability to control the tempo against dallas won us the game, no doubt. Dallas has 2 starters (marion and kidd) who are much more effective in transition than in the half court. When they were able to run, even generate quick scores off of spurs made baskets, they were unstoppable. When we slowed them down, we squeezed the life out of their offense and bent them to our will.
If we do that to Phx, we should win. Phx has the shooters to still play in the half court, and Amare can score in the post, but the question is, are they disciplined enough to handle the frustration of our defense consistently?
Bottom line, if they get enough fast breaks, we are in trouble. If not, we should win more than we lose.
2) Will duncan score inconsistently 1/3 of his games next series?
Duncan's defense was important in all of the spurs victories. But for games 4 and 5, he was not generating the post scoring that we are used to seeing. Game 4, he was tired as shit from being over-played (more than 40 minutes), and game 5 was kind of a throw-away because it would have been a 4th victory in a row in an away game.
I am not confident the spurs can beat phx without consistent post scoring. Phx has basically no post scoring (like dallas). Unlike Dallas, I expect phx to shoot a higher percentage than the Spurs if we don't get lots of easy post scoring. Duncan (and perhaps blair) are our only hope in this regard. Duncan was overplayed (led team in minutes with 37-38/game). I don't think duncan will survive the playoffs at that rate. If duncan gets the ball enough without having to play too much, I guess this can be solved, but I think blair needs to get significant minutes and attack.
3) playing more than 6.5 player rotation?
This is connected to the over-playing duncan issue. Currently, we are playing our starters and Tony significant minutes, which is fine. What it does mean is the spurs either have to play RJ big minutes, or will have some 3 guard line-ups out there when he is not playing. I prefer that to centerpiece time, but recognize that phx will try to coax us into a shootout/baller pace, which is probably not in our best interest.
Now for the front court: Bonner and Blair are getting the rest of the minutes there, which would also be fine. Problem: although bonner/blair are combining for about 20-25 minutes between them, that is deception, because they played extra minutes when we got blown out. For instance, the starting front court plays 96-25=71/2; 35 minutes each, sounds fine.
But last series Duncan averaged 37 WITH only playing 24 in the blowout game. He played the following minutes in contested games: 40, 35, 43, 36, 42
blair/bonner minutes in these games: 27, 29, 18, 19, 17.
It is one thing to say, well, we are playing about 7 guys, with blair/bonner combining for about 20 minutes. However, Duncan is playing more and dice less, and that is out of necessity. Duncan playing shitty in 2 games was the result. Blair, as our only other real post threat, probably has to step up to change that.
4) Triples. A) Make them. We lacked them outside of Hill for an entire series, and Suns excelled at them during the regular series as well as in the first round. I don't know if we can keep up with this team if we don't make some 3's also, because good 3pt shooting translates into crazy point per shot efficiency. Sure, they will get fewer fts that way, but they have slashers too.
As a counter-point, Dallas looked like a very good 3pt team, with Kidd and Terry as good threats, which we shut down. However, that also is deceiving. Kidd is not a slashing threat, so just running him off the line works. Not so with the phx threats. Also, phx has about 6 guys who shoot the 3, unlike dallas with just a few.
B) prevent them. I think we have to play on the shooters for phx, and NOT leave open 3pt shooters. We dared Terry to shoot many open 3pt shots; we are committing suicide if we do that to phx.
Conclusion:
Overall, I must admit I would love to see blair step up. It is needed if we are to make it further in the playoffs, to save duncan for the next 2 rounds. The other stuff is really dependent on the schemes the team uses, which I think we can do. I think we are able to take phx, but it will be even harder than in past years.