Top Ten Keys - Spurs vs. Suns 2010 Playoff Preview

[timvp]

After dispatching the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the 2010 NBA Playoffs, the San Antonio Spurs advance to take on another well-known foe: the Phoenix Suns. Since 2003, the Spurs and Suns have met in the playoffs four times -- with the Spurs winning all four battles.

However, this year's matchup is quite different than any of the previous four series between the Spurs and Suns. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire are still headlining Phoenix's squad, however the rest of the equation is different.

While these Suns lack the high-end talent of other Suns teams of the last decade, they are deeper, more explosive offensively and better coached defensively. What do the Spurs have to do to continue their mastery of the Suns? Here are the top ten keys:

10. Manu Ginobili's Recovery
Manu Ginobili has been a superstar for the last few months. Unfortunately, he suffered a broken nose against the Mavs and his production has declined since the injury. Ginobili, if healthy, can have a lot of success against Phoenix's defense. But he'll need to learn to play with the broken nose in addition to fighting any fatigue caused by shouldering so much of the load recently. A Ginobili at 75% likely won't be enough for the Spurs to advance to the Western Conference Finals.

9. Make Steve Nash Shoot
Steve Nash has a hip injury that hindered his play in the first round, especially in Game 6. In his last two games, he's only 4-for-12 from the field with 12 turnovers in 58 minutes. Since Nash is always most deadly against the Spurs when he's racking up assists, making him score rather than distribute has been the gameplan throughout the years. If he's injured at all, cutting off his passing lanes and forcing him to score is even more important than usual.

8. Tony Parker's Penetration
The Suns do a lot of things well but protecting the rim isn't one of their strengths. This becomes especially true when the Suns have Stoudemire and Channing Frye on the court at the same time. Parker destroyed the Suns in 2008 and, although he'll be coming off the bench, he should have plenty of chances to leave his mark. The Spurs don't need Parker to dominate but if he can average 20 points per game, San Antonio should be in good shape.

7. Offensive Rebounding
Another weakness the Spurs can exploit is on the offensive glass. The Suns are a poor defensive rebounding team so the bigs crashing the offensive boards should yield good results. If DeJuan Blair can be competent on the defensive end and keep up with the swifter Suns, he has a chance to change games by dominating the offensive glass. Antonio McDyess and Tim Duncan should also try to take advantage of this weakness.

6. Slowing Jason Richardson
Jason Richardson was the best player on the Suns in their first round matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers. He averaged 23.5 points on 52.7% shooting from the field, including 22-of-43 from three-point range. (Amazingly, he had only one turnover in the entire series.) Richardson is an elite athlete with great range who likes to get out and run. The most difficult part of slowing him down is he gets such high elevation on his jumper that he becomes virtually unguardable when he gets hot. With that in mind, prevention is the best medicine. Keep Richardson from getting easy buckets in transition, keep a defender close to him at all times and try to turn him into a passer. In other words, the Spurs need to defend him like they defended Shawn Marion when he was with the Suns.

5. Shooters Stepping Up
The Spurs had only three players hit more than one three-pointer against the Mavs: Ginobili, George Hill and Matt Bonner. In total, the Spurs were 25-for-78 (32.1%) on threes against the Mavs. If the Spurs don't drastically improve on their three-point shooting against the Suns, they won't win the series. Phoenix will be throwing more double-teams at San Antonio, which means the Spurs will be forced to shoot more threes.

4. Create Depth
Typically, it has been the Spurs who have more depth when up against the Suns. Not this year. The Spurs were relegated to basically a six man rotation by the end of the series against the Mavs. The Suns, on the other hand, will use a rotation that features ten players. All ten could feasibly average more than 15 minutes per game. Since this series has limited rest between games, there's simply no way the Spurs will hold up for the duration of the series if they only have six players along for the ride. Somehow the coaching staff is going to have to cajole a rotation of eight or nine players.

3. Transition Defense
Transition defense was a key against the Mavs. Versus the Suns, transition defense is exponentially more important. Phoenix is once again the best offensive team in the NBA and they are murder when out on the break. Their roster is filled with young, combustible players. A few turnovers or not getting back on D can lead to an avalanche of energy. The Spurs forcing the Suns to play in the halfcourt is a must if San Antonio wants to win.

2. Limit Phoenix's Threes
The pick-and-roll between Nash and Stoudemire is Phoenix's bread and butter. That play is so good that the Spurs can only hope to slow it down once in a while. However, the aspect of the Suns offense the Spurs have to try to control is their three-point shooting. They have enough shooters to where they can beat you with just their three-point shooting alone. In the first round, the Suns had six players who hit at least five three-pointers. As a team, they were 60-for-153 for 39.2%. The goal for the Spurs should be keep the Suns at seven or eight three-pointers made per game instead of 10 to 12. Keeping their percentage at around 37-38% would be great.

1. Tim Duncan on the Block
In the first round, I didn't want the Spurs to ride Tim Duncan too much on the block. This series is different. The Suns don't have the personnel to slow Duncan. For that reason, the Spurs need to milk Duncan as much as possible. Doing so should force double-teams, slow the pace of the game and hopefully get the Suns in foul trouble. On the other hand, if Duncan doesn't have success on the block, the Spurs will be in trouble. In such a scenario, the Suns will be able to get away going small and turning each game into a track meet. If that ends up being the case, the Suns have too many horses for the Spurs to keep up. Simply put, Tim Duncan has to be Tim Duncan this series.

[Libri]

Thanks for the insight.

[Xylus]

Robin Lopez's importance cannot be stressed enough. Without him, our best chance of guarding him is Amare Stoudemire, a mediocre man-on-man defender.

[J.T.]

Tim Duncan has been nothing short of a little bitch since owning in Game 2 of the Mavs series. He needs to drop some major loads on the Suns and end this stupid ass free throws funk he's in immediately. I trust him but I'm mad fucking shocked we beat the Mavs with Tim Duncan pulling a classic Robert Horry sandbag job in the mother fucking playoffs. That is all.

[GINNNNNNNNNNNNOBILI]

Scoring more points is important as well... IMHO

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

Scoring more points is important as well... IMHO


Agreed, first team to score more points than the other team 4 times probably wins the series.

[duncan228]

I expect Duncan to start the series strong on the rest he's had. I hope he can maintain it with the every other day schedule.

[SpursTillTheEnd]

On number 4 mason should not play, give bogans or temple his minutes

[phxspurfan]

On number 4 mason should not play, give bogans or temple his minutes

Mason will be playing heavy minutes, especially if Manu isn't Manu again. Bogans will be in there too, against Nash I presume.

TD
McDyess
RJ
Manu
Hill

TP
Bogans
Blair
Bonner
RMJ

[toki9]

Jared Dudley's 3-pt shooting looks ridiculous this year...he shot 120 out of 262 for the season, for 45.8%...

[Blackjack]

Nicely done, timvp. I know you've got a lot on your plate at the moment but I appreciate the yeoman efforts you've been giving on these previews/predictions -- my meek, time-consuming contributions have given me an even greater respect for these posts of yours. :tu


I expect Duncan to start the series strong on the rest he's had. I hope he can maintain it with the every other day schedule.

That's definitely what I'm expecting and the every-other-day is definitely a concern.

The Spurs' lack of three-point shooting and the Suns' proficiency in that aspect is another worry. (Did y'all notice how a couple of the Spurs mentioned that the Suns were the best three-point shooting team ever -- Pop made mention as well ... with the media and I'm sure he's burning it into their collective skull.)

This matchup definitely has me more concerned than prior years . . .

[ace3g]

Scoring more points is important as well... IMHO


Agreed, first team to score more points than the other team 4 times probably wins the series.

Didn't realize John Madden was posting at SpursTalk under an alias

[stéphane]

I would put Nash Hip condition somewhere. I mean if he's not 100%, their main weapon (pnr) won't be effective and he will be ABUSED on D by our guards penetration even worse than usual.

[timvp]

Robin Lopez's importance cannot be stressed enough. Without him, our best chance of guarding him is Amare Stoudemire, a mediocre man-on-man defender.

This is true. If Robin Lopez can return, the Suns' chances of winning the series rise significantly. With Lopez, the Suns might get away with single-teaming Duncan. Without Lopez? The Suns would have to hope and pray Duncan is having a bad series.

[Bob Lanier]

I think Antonio McDyess will help the Spurs immensely in this series. He's been no better than a mediocre defender in this decade, but he has a better chance of stymieing Stoudemire than Rasho/Nazr/Oberto/Elson/Horry/Massenberg/etc. ever did.

[Quasar]

I've been thinking that Dejuan Blair may actually be THE secret weapon against Amare, assuming he even sees any consistent playing time! He's faster than Bonner, and can be quite physical which should be a good thing against Amare. The issue will probably be ticky-tack fouls... Any thoughts?

[raspsa]

I've been thinking that Dejuan Blair may actually be THE secret weapon against Amare, assuming he even sees any consistent playing time! He's faster than Bonner, and can be quite physical which should be a good thing against Amare. The issue will probably be ticky-tack fouls... Any thoughts?

Blair is a rookie.. expect him to get into foul trouble very quickly guarding Amare. Refs will let McDyess get more physical with Amare.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Manu's recovery worries me most - if you were the Suns, especially given our past against them, wouldn't roughing up Manu be the first thing you'd do? A good hit to the nose could put him out of any game, and that's a real concern.

After that, Phoenix's three-point shooting is my next biggest concern because they can rack up points in a real hurry when they are hot and they have a lot of shooters.

OTOH, Tony and Tim are our greatest edges in this series. If those two can go off, even if Manu is turned into a distributor, we should be in decent shape.

The transition D, which worried the hell out of me all season - I'm sure it was the most inconsistent of any Spurs team for a decade - wasn't a problem in the Mavs series. In fact, it was consistently excellent. I hope we can keep it up.

[L.I.T]

Someone (or two) from the bench is going to have to step up to even that gap. In his limited minutes in the first round, I think, Blair showed an ability to be an energy guy and disruptive force on the boards.

One of the shooters has to step up. I think though, as others have pointed out, that this is a tailor made series for Bonner. The Suns primary big off the bench is Frye, a guy who Bonner should be able to match up well with.

If Hill starts (which is likely) and Nash is on him, moving Hill around on offense and having Nash chase him around would be a good way to go. You can't put Nash on Manu or Jefferson, they both would abuse him. So, if Hill can keep his energy up and use his athletic ability effectively, TP can remain the primary weapon and mismatch off the bench.

Jefferson must maintain his defensive focus that he flashed in the first round, while upping his offensive game. In a series where the Spurs will have opportunities to selectively run he could be a great weapon when paired with Hill/Manu or TP.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

Spot on list. For all the changes that have happened over the course of the Spurs/Suns clashes this really comes down to a lot of the same things that were critical in the 05 series: force Nash to be a scorer, run them off the three point line, control the tempo, never stop attacking the hoop, rebound like you mean it. Hell, if Joe Johnson's face hadn't been busted I'd bet the analysis on Jason Richardson could have been applied almost word for word.

It might be tougher than it was a few years ago, but by now beating the Suns is like riding a bicycle for this squad.

[GSH]

Robin Lopez's importance cannot be stressed enough. Without him, our best chance of guarding him is Amare Stoudemire, a mediocre man-on-man defender.

Wow... a fan from the opposing team who shows up to talk basketball instead of trolling? Very cool.

I think Tim's performance in Game 1 is going to be important, whether the Spurs win the game or not. If he can get it going down low, it will force the Suns to being more doubles. If he can't they will try and make us beat them from the outside. That thought isn't very appealing lately.

[blkroadrunners]

9. Make Steve Nash Shoot
Steve Nash has a hip injury that hindered his play in the first round, especially in Game 6. In his last two games, he's only 4-for-12 from the field with 12 turnovers in 58 minutes. Since Nash is always most deadly against the Spurs when he's racking up assists, making him score rather than distribute has been the gameplan throughout the years. If he's injured at all, cutting off his passing lanes and forcing him to score is even more important than usual.


This should be in the top 3, IMO. In the regular season against the Suns, Steve Nash has been averaging about 20 pts and 12 asts while shooting close to 58%. This is where Bruce Bowen is heavily missed since his length, quickness, and aggressive gave Nash problems in the past. I'm hoping we see similar intensity from Hill (or whomever is guarding Nash) on defense.

[coyotes_geek]

4. Create Depth
Typically, it has been the Spurs who have more depth when up against the Suns. Not this year. The Spurs were relegated to basically a six man rotation by the end of the series against the Mavs. The Suns, on the other hand, will use a rotation that features ten players. All ten could feasibly average more than 15 minutes per game. Since this series has limited rest between games, there's simply no way the Spurs will hold up for the duration of the series if they only have six players along for the ride. Somehow the coaching staff is going to have to cajole a rotation of eight or nine players.

This is the one that has me worried. Bonner and Mason are going to have to play in this series and while on the court they need to be something more productive than just a warm body to have on the court while someone in the top 7 gets a breather.

[Brazil]

Speaking about Depth I still don't understand the release of Theo not really for this serie but against the mavs we could have used Theo.

[in2deep]

No mention of George Hill???

IMO he is the key to this series. He plays well and Spurs run away with it.

[coyotes_geek]

Speaking about Depth I still don't understand the release of Theo not really for this serie but against the mavs we could have used Theo.

That was just a give-up trade. The Spurs were looking like a team that was going to get run out of the playoffs in the 1st round, so they decided to save some bucks by dumping Theo. Had they known at the time how the Spurs would come together late in the year, I'll bet that they wouldn't have shipped Theo out. There's no doubt the Spurs could have used him in these playoffs. Definitely against the mavs and especially against the lakers, should the Spurs get past Phoenix.

[The Truth #6]

So whom does Hill guard - Nash or Richardson? Hill might have a better chance of containing Richardson than Manu would. If making Nash shoot the ball is a goal (while limiting Richardson) then I think Pop might put Hill on Richardson and let Manu cover Nash. At least in the beginning. Once Parker is in the game, he thrives on competing against the best point guards and he could really do damage on Nash, especially if he's injured.

If Nash guards Hill, then I'd like to see Hill post him up when he flashes to the post after dumping the ball into Tim. Hill has done this more recently in the last few months, and even abused Fisher once or twice, which was great. Making Nash defend is key, but if Hill can get some easy points in the post against Nash, then all the better, especially if the Suns don't double Tim.

Grant Hill, Dudley, and The Dude with the Really Goofy Ponytail all play fairly good defense so our guys will have to score. Defending them probably won't be enough. Executing on both ends seems important in this series. Versus Dallas, they didn't play great defense so our approach to the game was more singular.

Should be a great series.

[kace]

No mention of George Hill???

IMO he is the key to this series. He plays well and Spurs run away with it.

:lol. yep, he has become our franchise player thanks to two good games in PO. talk about overreaction.

[PDXSpursFan]

IMO, big key:

Richard Jefferson Play

The best way to defend Jason Richarson is to make him work at the defensive end. In the 1st game against Portland, he struggled offensively as he was asked to guard Andre Miller.The rest of the games he took "vacations" on the defensive-end guarding ineffective Rudy or injured Roy.
In the Spurs series, Grant Hill will probably guard Ginobili and Richarson will be on Richard Jefferson. If Jefferson is able to step up and make Richarson work on the defensive end, he won't be as effective on the offensive.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Nice work Timvp! :tu

I agree that the #1 key is probably Duncan, with 1b being Ginobili's health. This might be the toughest Phoenix team we've faced in the playoffs in terms of both depth and coaching.

[dreamcastrocks]

Wow... a fan from the opposing team who shows up to talk basketball instead of trolling? Very cool.

I think Tim's performance in Game 1 is going to be important, whether the Spurs win the game or not. If he can get it going down low, it will force the Suns to being more doubles. If he can't they will try and make us beat them from the outside. That thought isn't very appealing lately.

There are actually lots of us around. In fact, Spurstalk is the only opposing forum that I ever visit.

The Suns will likely put Hill on Ginobili and double team Duncan early and often this series. Good rotation and passing will be key for the Spurs. I don't think the Suns want Duncan to beat them.

[dreamcastrocks]

I'm surprised Blair isn't a big key for you. He poses all the problems that Phoenix faces, tough interior presence, offensive rebounding, etc.

[Brazil]

I'm surprised Blair isn't a big key for you. He poses all the problems that Phoenix faces, tough interior presence, offensive rebounding, etc.

Well the problem is the spurs can rely on him. When he is playing, things happen good or bad. If Blair is a key for a spurs win we are in trouble.

[da_suns_fan]

6. Slowing Jason Richardson
Jason Richardson was the best player on the Suns in their first round matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers. He averaged 23.5 points on 52.7% shooting from the field, including 22-of-43 from three-point range. (Amazingly, he had only one turnover in the entire series.) Richardson is an elite athlete with great range who likes to get out and run. The most difficult part of slowing him down is he gets such high elevation on his jumper that he becomes virtually unguardable when he gets hot. With that in mind, prevention is the best medicine. Keep Richardson from getting easy buckets in transition, keep a defender close to him at all times and try to turn him into a passer. In other words, the Spurs need to defend him like they defended Shawn Marion when he was with the Suns.



Sorry, but thats a pretty poor analogy. Marion plays nothing like Richardson. Thats not saying that one is better than they other but Marions game is all about transition baskets where Richardson runs curls, slashes and generally finishes around the basket much better than Marion ever did.

The thing with Richardson is he shoots and shoots and shoots and shoots. If you got a guy in his face, hes still shooting. He'll go one on one and take a contested 20 footer that might go in 30% of the time.

[dreamcastrocks]

Well the problem is the spurs can rely on him. When he is playing, things happen good or bad. If Blair is a key for a spurs win we are in trouble.

I wouldn't necessarily say that you rely on him, but he has the potential to outplay Phoenix's bench players of Frye and Amundson.

[smrattler]

Great work as usual TiMVP.

Question for you (or anyone else):

#1 Key for the Spurs is to milk Timmy on the low block because they don't have an answer for that without the double team.

You didn't mention him much, but how does Blair factor in that same key? Timmy can't go 38-40 mins/night (every other night) and producing at a high level offensively for the series. He'll need rest to continue to produce and stay efficient.

Is it just as important for Blair to give us interior points when he gets in to allow Tim to rest and keep us going against their second unit?

[Brazil]

I wouldn't necessarily say that you rely on him, but he has the potential to outplay Phoenix's bench players of Frye and Amundson.

I agree but I don't think this is a top 10 key for a spurs W or at least I hope not.

[Old School 44]

Robin Lopez's importance cannot be stressed enough. Without him, our best chance of guarding him is Amare Stoudemire, a mediocre man-on-man defender.


This is true. If Robin Lopez can return, the Suns' chances of winning the series rise significantly. With Lopez, the Suns might get away with single-teaming Duncan. Without Lopez? The Suns would have to hope and pray Duncan is having a bad series.

If Robin Lopez plays and is effective this series, I'd want to find and question his identical twin brother Brook.

[dreamcastrocks]

I agree but I don't think this is a top 10 key for a spurs W or at least I hope not.

I would.


If Robin Lopez plays and is effective this series, I'd want to find and question his identical twin brother Brook.

Why? If you haven't seen him play, he has improved greatly this season, and is responsible for a defensive surge in Phoenix. Yes, I said defensive surge in Phoenix.

[Giuseppe]

Leave it to Sun's fan to spoil a perfectly good joke.

Ya mook, you.

[GSH]

Believe it or not, I think one of the biggest keys to beating the Suns is keeping Hill and Richardson off the glass, and outfighting them for some of the long rebounds off of 3-point attempts. Those two guys pick up A LOT of the rebounds that get the Suns easy points, and they just killed Portland.

The Spurs could also save 2-3 points per game if they run the floor hard on Suns fast breaks, and don't let their trailers get off uncontested 3-pointers. The Suns shoot a wicked percentage on transition 3's, and those extra points add up over an entire game and series. And it's really disheartening to think you've broken up the fast break, and then give up a 3.

All the Suns' bigs are foul prone, especially when they have to defend a half-court offense. Going after them early (especially Amare) will pay off big, if we can get a few whistles. I would hope that Amare spends at least two games out of the series sitting for extended minutes due to foul trouble. It would help if the Spurs can knock down their FT's, but just forcing them to back off on defense in the paint would be big. Blair has to avoid some of those dumb fouls on the other end, for the same reason.

Hill and Dragic both make a lot more turnovers if they are forced into a half-court game. Pushing the Suns later into the shot clock is key for the Spurs. But... both of those guys are deadly from the 3P line. It's especially important not to let Dragic get lost on defense. Over the season, he took almost 40% of his attempts from the 3P line. Against Portland, he took half of his shots from the arc, and made 7-15.

I know Pop won't do it, but I'd love to see him put Garret Temple on Dudley when the Suns put him in the game. Dudley's points have helped the Suns a lot over the course of the season. I think Temple would kick his ass defensively. And the Suns would probably ignore him out on the corner - at least until he knocked down a few 3's. Temple has the length and quickness to run Dudley off the 3P line, where he does the most damage, and that is tiring work. That's one of the ways Pop could create some of the depth that TimVP talked about.

Nash and Stoudamire are going to get their points. A lot of the Suns losses have involved Richardson having a sub-par game. He was unconscious against Portland, but he normally doesn't shoot FT's all that well. Pushing him hard on defense is key, even if it means burning a few fouls - just to try and keep him out of rhythm.

[Old School 44]

Leave it to Sun's fan to spoil a perfectly good joke.

Ya mook, you.

:lol Glad somebody got it!

[ducks]

Sorry, but thats a pretty poor analogy. Marion plays nothing like Richardson. Thats not saying that one is better than they other but Marions game is all about transition baskets where Richardson runs curls, slashes and generally finishes around the basket much better than Marion ever did.

The thing with Richardson is he shoots and shoots and shoots and shoots. If you got a guy in his face, hes still shooting. He'll go one on one and take a contested 20 footer that might go in 30% of the time.

richardson and marion do not play the same
but IMO spurs shutwon marion when they played the suns
that is what he is talking about

[timvp]

I think Antonio McDyess will help the Spurs immensely in this series. He's been no better than a mediocre defender in this decade, but he has a better chance of stymieing Stoudemire than Rasho/Nazr/Oberto/Elson/Horry/Massenberg/etc. ever did.Considering that San Antonio's best defense against Amare over the years is getting out of the way while he dunks it, anything McDyess can do to Amare to slow him down would be much appreciated.


I've been thinking that Dejuan Blair may actually be THE secret weapon against Amare, assuming he even sees any consistent playing time! He's faster than Bonner, and can be quite physical which should be a good thing against Amare. The issue will probably be ticky-tack fouls... Any thoughts?It'll be interesting to see if Pop dares to play Duncan and Blair together. In theory, that would really take advantage of Phoenix's weakness on the defensive glass.

But since Pop has used Blair strictly as Duncan's backup for a long while now, I doubt we see the two of them together.


So whom does Hill guard - Nash or Richardson?To start the series, Pop will go with Hill on Nash and likely have Hill pick up Nash full court. Pop always goes with a big picture attack against Nash by trying to wear him out over the course of a series. Since Nash may be gimpy, I expect Pop to pressure Nash a whole lot in Game 1 to figure out whether or not Nash is 100%.




Sorry, but thats a pretty poor analogy. Marion plays nothing like Richardson. I never said Marion plays like Richardson. My point is the defensive philosophy against both players will be similar. The Spurs kept Marion in check by not letting him get going and making sure someone always kept a body on him. Pop will do the same to Richardson to try to slow him down ... especially early on in the series after the way Richardson destroyed the Blazers.

[Brazil]

That was just a give-up trade. The Spurs were looking like a team that was going to get run out of the playoffs in the 1st round, so they decided to save some bucks by dumping Theo. Had they known at the time how the Spurs would come together late in the year, I'll bet that they wouldn't have shipped Theo out. There's no doubt the Spurs could have used him in these playoffs. Definitely against the mavs and especially against the lakers, should the Spurs get past Phoenix.

Yeah but we have a late 2nd round in 2016 for that give-up :hat

It was IMO a bad move really.

[DBMethos]

I never said Marion plays like Richardson. My point is the defensive philosophy against both players will be similar. The Spurs kept Marion in check by not letting him get going and making sure someone always kept a body on him. Pop will do the same to Richardson to try to slow him down ... especially early on in the series after the way Richardson destroyed the Blazers.

Agreed. If Richardson is held in check, I doubt if the Suns have enough firepower to beat us. RJ has his work cut out for him this round.

[EricB]

Ratliff was traded due to no minutes....

:rolleyes

[EricB]

Agreed. If Richardson is held in check, I doubt if the Suns have enough firepower to beat us. RJ has his work cut out for him this round.


Just put a hand in his face and force bad jumpers. IE the same defense for Caron butler

[Mixability]

I with the Make Nash Shoot option. If he starts creating, Stoudewhine gets in the game.

[Spurs Brazil]

We must make Nash work on D. Since Bruce is not there to slow him on D I want to see the Spurs put Nash to defend our PnR every time.

Stay on the shooters, especially Frye and Richardson.

Give TD the ball to dominate

TP and Manu need to be in attack mode all game

[DBMethos]

TP and Manu need to be in attack mode all game

Add Hill/RJ to that as well.

[NFGIII]

Manu's recovery worries me most - if you were the Suns, especially given our past against them, wouldn't roughing up Manu be the first thing you'd do? A good hit to the nose could put him out of any game, and that's a real concern.

IF they rough up Manu then we do the same with Nash. All in the context of good hard nosed PO fouls. :D



After that, Phoenix's three-point shooting is my next biggest concern because they can rack up points in a real hurry when they are hot and they have a lot of shooters.

Agreed. This team gets really energized when those 3s are raining down so our transition D is crucial to hopefully controling this issue. They. more than any other team, seem to shoot the 3 on the break more.




The transition D, which worried the hell out of me all season - I'm sure it was the most inconsistent of any Spurs team for a decade - wasn't a problem in the Mavs series. In fact, it was consistently excellent. I hope we can keep it up.

Ditto. This will be critical for the Spurs. See Above.


Someone (or two) from the bench is going to have to step up to even that gap. In his limited minutes in the first round, I think, Blair showed an ability to be an energy guy and disruptive force on the boards.

One of the shooters has to step up. I think though, as others have pointed out, that this is a tailor made series for Bonner. The Suns primary big off the bench is Frye, a guy who Bonner should be able to match up well with.


With the lack of bigs on the Suns I think Blair can definitely be a force for us. If so then TD will get some much needed rest. I really don't want him playing 38 - 40 mpg. There isn't enough days off between games for him to recover sufficiently enough and might wear down by the end of the series.

And you are correct that one of the shooters had got to start contibuting more. Our rotation is basically at 6 or 6.5. This will effect our play as the series wears on. We need an 8 - 9 man rotation just as Timvp said. Anything short of that will make it more difficult to win the series.




Jefferson must maintain his defensive focus that he flashed in the first round, while upping his offensive game. In a series where the Spurs will have opportunities to selectively run he could be a great weapon when paired with Hill/Manu or TP.

I believe he is key to beating the Suns. He needs to continue his focus on both ends and especially make JR work hard. If he makes JR work on the defensive end then this will have an effect on JR point production. I think I heard a stat that the Suns have something like a gazillion wins (forgot the # ) against only 4 loses when JR scores over 20 ppg. And he averaged 23 against the Trailblazers.


Wow... a fan from the opposing team who shows up to talk basketball instead of trolling? Very cool.

Actually he is one of the best non Spurs posters here. In fact he is one of the best posters period. Rarely runs bs smack (we all do from time to time but it is in the spirit of good fun) but does defend his team and make very good points. I'd take him over many of the really obnoxious Spurs posters here anyday.




Question for you (or anyone else):

You didn't mention him much, but how does Blair factor in that same key? Timmy can't go 38-40 mins/night (every other night) and producing at a high level offensively for the series. He'll need rest to continue to produce and stay efficient.

Is it just as important for Blair to give us interior points when he gets in to allow Tim to rest and keep us going against their second unit?

Good points. I think that Blair will need to produce more and with the lack of bigs I think he will be able to do so. But he is a rookie and therefore prone to making those types of mistakes. It may turn out to be a crap shoot where you get what you get. He may be more productive at home while stinking it up on the road. But you really don't know until it happens. He's too young and inexperienced to count on any type of consistency at this point. IMHO

And yes I hope he does because we will need for TD to get rest and not play in the 38 - 40+ mpg territory.

[coyotes_geek]

Yeah but we have a late 2nd round in 2016 for that give-up :hat

It was IMO a bad move really.

Meh. Having another big would have been nice, and like I said earlier I think the Spurs would have kept him had they known how things would turn out. But whenever this postseason comes to an end I just don't see myself saying "if we only had Theo Ratliff". So in that sense I don't think it's worth getting worked up over.

[TD 21]

This notion of Duncan "being Duncan" isn't going to happen every game. This will be a relatively up tempo series and it goes every other day until game seven, so expect a similar performance to last round out of Duncan, as far as him probably having two out of six games where he's off (I expect better overall numbers though, because the offense will run through him more and he has a more favorable matchup).

This is why it's important that the Spurs win the games they have to win, so that they can pull the plug early and get him rest in one-two games in this series. Game one is hugely important for this reason. The energy he and McDyess have tonight probably will not be higher than in tonight's game. The Spurs have to take advantage of this, Nash's ailing hip and likely no Lopez and steal game one, so that game two becomes a throwaway game. Then they can rest up to take care of business at home.

As for the three point shooting gap, this is why I expect Mason to get the call over Bogans in this series more often than not (particularly at the start). The Spurs will want as much firepower and shooting on the floor as possible and even though he's shot it terribly for a long while, I still expect Pop to give him opportunity in this series.

Hill needs to attack Nash on offense, otherwise it might be best to close with Parker, Ginobili and Jefferson on the perimeter, particularly if Parker can do the job defensively on Nash. The Spurs would lose three point shooting in this alignment, but they'd make it so there wouldn't be a single player that Nash would even have a shot at guarding. Jefferson may not be a great creator, but he's too big and strong for Nash to cover. I'm not necessarily advocating this, but it's definitely something to consider.

[GSH]

Believe it or not, I think one of the biggest keys to beating the Suns is keeping Hill and Richardson off the glass, and outfighting them for some of the long rebounds off of 3-point attempts. Those two guys pick up A LOT of the rebounds that get the Suns easy points, and they just killed Portland.

Nash and Stoudamire are going to get their points. A lot of the Suns losses have involved Richardson having a sub-par game. He was unconscious against Portland, but he normally doesn't shoot FT's all that well. Pushing him hard on defense is key, even if it means burning a few fouls - just to try and keep him out of rhythm.

I know Pop won't do it, but I'd love to see him put Garret Temple on Dudley when the Suns put him in the game. Dudley's points have helped the Suns a lot over the course of the season. I think Temple would kick his ass defensively. And the Suns would probably ignore him out on the corner - at least until he knocked down a few 3's. Temple has the length and quickness to run Dudley off the 3P line, where he does the most damage, and that is tiring work. That's one of the ways Pop could create some of the depth that TimVP talked about.




11 boards for Hill and Richardson hurt. The 11 by Dudley and Amundson hurt worse.

Richardson 2-8 in the first half. They didn't stay with him in the second.

Pop didn't play Hill in last year's playoffs, and regretted it. I hope he'll put Temple in this year. I still think he could, and would have stuck to Dudley better. And he's 6'6", so he'd be a little tougher for Dudley to shoot over. I also like his chances of nailing at least one or two 3's a lot better than Mason, Bonner, or Bogans. They need to get someone else involved, and he's about the only hope.

[Blackjack]

Temple's a long 6-5, not 6-6, but, yeah ... I'm all for it; they've got to get some kind of contribution off their bench and it's pretty clear it isn't going to come from Bogans or Mason.

I suggested Bogans needed to play because, frankly, I didn't see another option. How realistic is it to expect Pop to play Temple? Yeah, not so much . . .

But it's pretty apparent that the Suns are better constructed to win at what they do than the Spurs are at what they've been known to do: "The Suns would've never been able to beat the Spurs shooting 42-percent!," Collins or Harland made mention to after the final buzzer sounded.

Correction: The Phoenix Suns would've never beat the Spurs, as we've known them, shooting 42-percent; these Spurs is another story.

Simply put: The Suns are a better offensive team. There's no disputing that. So if the Spurs are going to get beat on the boards (in both games and to the tune of 18 offensive rebounds in Game 2) and not have the ability to defend the three or counter with a three-point attack of their own, how exactly are they supposed to win?

They're not; the Spurs have questions that need to be answered and they probably don't have the means to figure them out.

Cheerio! :toast