48MoH: Wayne Winston Warns of…Jared Dudley?

[Blackjack]

Wayne Winston Warns of…Jared Dudley? (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/05/02/spurs-suns-nba-playoffs-jared-dudley/)
by Timothy Varner

Is Jared Dudley some kind of secret weapon for the Suns to deploy against the Spurs?

Wayne Winston emailed this morning to say the Spurs should “be ready with a good lineup” whenever Jared Dudley is on the floor. The substance of his concerns is fleshed out in his Spurs-Suns preview (http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=712).

Dudley, as it turns out, was an unsung hero for the Suns against the Blazers. Winston notes that “when Dudley replaced [Grant] Hill with the four other starters the Suns were +35 [against the Blazers].”

Nevertheless, Winston likes the Spurs in six. He also notes, in private correspondence, that the Spurs are likely to beat the winner of the Lakers-Jazz series. He suspects the Suns would lose to either of those teams, were they to somehow outmaneuver the Spurs.

[stéphane]

Thanks for the find Blackjack.
I haven't seen the suns that much yet (1 and half game in the first round)... Do you think RJ would be a correct answer on D for Dudley and Hill or that his strenghts do not match well with these guys.

[Blackjack]

I think RJ's going to have to do a decent job on whomever of the two he's matched up with. Dudley's not a great athlete, but he's a real heady player that knows his role and plays it well -- his shot definitely has to be respected. RJ's got the tools and has been playing decent enough defense to get the job done, but the Suns are a different animal and the margin for error is definitely thin guarding them. (It's felt like the Spurs were defusing a bomb playing defense against this team -- it's about attention to detail and that's cause for concern with RJ.)

As I mentioned in the other thread, the more I look at these defensive matchups the more I come to the same conclusion: the Spurs' best defense or counter will be their offensive attack. They've got to win their matchups on the basis of their quickness if Hill and Parker are up against some combination of Richardson, Hill, or Dudley and they've got to pound the ball inside against the Suns' frontline (namely Amar'e) to put some fouls on them and hopefully take away some aggression or send them to the bench.

The Spurs' offense is going to go a long way in deciding how successful they are defensively.

[timvp]

Dudley, as it turns out, was an unsung hero for the Suns against the Blazers. Winston notes that “when Dudley replaced [Grant] Hill with the four other starters the Suns were +35 [against the Blazers].”

Not exactly true. The Suns were +35 when Dudley replaced Hill and Frye replaced Collins.

[ClingingMars]

+/- is a very bleh stat. Especially against a team that realistically the Suns should have swept.

[Mark in Austin]

Seems like ever since he left the Mavs, Winston has been auditioning HARD for another gig...


edit: I thought it was Cuban's choice Winston is no longer with the Mavs. Corrected to reflect that this might not be the case.

[ElNono]

Wasn't Wayne Winston telling us about a month ago how much more dangerous we are with Matt Bonner on the floor?

[tav1]

Quick note: Winston stepped away from the Mavs on his own...he wanted to do more work advancing the APM cause, and that's done more easily as a free agent.

Winston thought Bonner was a big deal going into last year's series, but his numbers didn't show the same thing this year. He picked the Spurs. In fact, he thinks they should have won in five. Winston's advice before the just finished series was not to play Bogans and Mason Jr., play Blair with Bonner, and use the front court of Duncan/McDyess as much as possible. Just grading him on that series, his research was spot-on.

[rmt]

Quick note: Winston stepped away from the Mavs on his own...he wanted to do more work advancing the APM cause, and that's done more easily as a free agent.

Winston thought Bonner was a big deal going into last year's series, but his numbers didn't show the same thing this year. He picked the Spurs. In fact, he thinks they should have won in five. Winston's advice before the just finished series was not to play Bogans and Mason Jr., play Blair with Bonner, and use the front court of Duncan/McDyess as much as possible. Just grading him on that series, his research was spot-on.

Well, if Hill had not re-tweaked his ankle in the last game, maybe they would have won in 5. That first game was certainly winnable.

[tav1]

Not exactly true. The Suns were +35 when Dudley replaced Hill and Frye replaced Collins.

LJ, I spoke with Wayne, and you're correct. He's corrected his post; I've corrected mine. Thanks for the careful eyes.

[Dave McNulla]

dudley is the 2010 version of sasha vuyachich (sp?). he's really good if the opponent is hurt (like after ginobili hurt his arm in the last game v. suns). otherwise, he's just a guy that tries a little harder on D.

[dreamcastrocks]

dudley is the 2010 version of sasha vuyachich (sp?). he's really good if the opponent is hurt (like after ginobili hurt his arm in the last game v. suns). otherwise, he's just a guy that tries a little harder on D.

No. You obviously haven't seen Dudley play.

His game is tenacious defense and always being in the right spot in the right time.

He also added a 3 point shot this year and shot over 45% for the year. He was the throw-in, in the Boris Diaw/Jason Richardson trade and has been so valuable in shoring up our bench.

You don't have to gameplan against him, but you'd better be aware when he is on the floor. Don't leave him open for 3 because he will knock it down.

[ElNono]

Winston thought Bonner was a big deal going into last year's series, but his numbers didn't show the same thing this year. He picked the Spurs. In fact, he thinks they should have won in five. Winston's advice before the just finished series was not to play Bogans and Mason Jr., play Blair with Bonner, and use the front court of Duncan/McDyess as much as possible. Just grading him on that series, his research was spot-on.

:lol You don't need spreadsheets or adjusted +/- to know that...

And FWIW, his numbers going in did indicate Bonner could make an impact:
"In regular season Blair Manu Hill Jefferson and Bonner was great (35 points better than average) but this lineup has stumbled so far."

I hope Matt shows up in this series against the Suns... there's really no reason for him not to play as well as Frye...

[Xylus]

Jared Dudley is a badass.

Many of you probably don't know him that well, or haven't seen him play all that much. Jared Dudley is the kind of player that any fan would want on their team.

Comparisons to Sasha Vujacic make me want to puke. He does so many more things on the floor than Sasha, and he's clutch as fuck.

[AFBlue]

Jared Dudley is a badass.

Many of you probably don't know him that well, or haven't seen him play all that much. Jared Dudley is the kind of player that any fan would want on their team.

Comparisons to Sasha Vujacic make me want to puke. He does so many more things on the floor than Sasha, and he's clutch as fuck.

I think the comparison that fits for the sake of this matchup is probably Boris Diaw. Diaw, you may remember, caused the Spurs fits with his versatility and hard-nosed play in the '07 playoffs.

I think Dudley will definitely be a factor in this series, but as with Diaw...the Suns will probably make the mistake of putting the ball in his hands (either by choice or because Spurs force it) and he'll fall short.

[dreamcastrocks]

I think the comparison that fits for the sake of this matchup is probably Boris Diaw. Diaw, you may remember, caused the Spurs fits with his versatility and hard-nosed play in the '07 playoffs.

I think Dudley will definitely be a factor in this series, but as with Diaw...the Suns will probably make the mistake of putting the ball in his hands (either by choice or because Spurs force it) and he'll fall short.

LOL

:rollin

I'll tell you with 100% certainty that not one Suns player or fan has ever compared Boris Diaw with Jared Dudley. Not one.

:lmao

[Dr. Gonzo]

he's clutch as fuck.

Fuck isn't that clutch.

[AFBlue]

LOL

:rollin

I'll tell you with 100% certainty that not one Suns player or fan has ever compared Boris Diaw with Jared Dudley. Not one.

:lmao

I wasn't talking about comparing them as players. I was talking about comparing them as it relates to the matchup. Boris Diaw, as out-of-shape and unmotivated as he was after he got the big contract, was a matchup nightmare for the Spurs in that playoff series. I think Dudley and even a guy like Channing Frye can be a similar type of matchup concerns.

What I was saying is that the Spurs inevitably force those guys who are not used to the pressure situation to make plays...and because they're ultimately role players and not superstars, they fall short.

[majinkoola]

Diaw might literally be the worst comparison for Dudley. Just terrible.

A better comparison would be a slightly worse-on-D Raja Bell. Deadly from deep, plays very hard, clutch. Not a good finisher or a good mid range player.

[dreamcastrocks]

Fuck isn't that clutch.

Sealing the deal is definitely clutch.

[dreamcastrocks]

I wasn't talking about comparing them as players. I was talking about comparing them as it relates to the matchup. Boris Diaw, as out-of-shape and unmotivated as he was after he got the big contract, was a matchup nightmare for the Spurs in that playoff series. I think Dudley and even a guy like Channing Frye can be a similar type of matchup concerns.

What I was saying is that the Spurs inevitably force those guys who are not used to the pressure situation to make plays...and because they're ultimately role players and not superstars, they fall short.

No way Dudley goes off like that against the Spurs. The Spurs won't leave him alone behind the 3 point arch to get 20+ points over and over again. There smarter than that.

He will play some good 4th quarter minutes because of his defense and 3 point shooting.

[SpursFanInAustin]

Dudley = Raja Bell.

[AFBlue]

Diaw might literally be the worst comparison for Dudley. Just terrible.

A better comparison would be a slightly worse-on-D Raja Bell. Deadly from deep, plays very hard, clutch. Not a good finisher or a good mid range player.

Good Lord...please read my response to the original quote. I wasn't comparing them as players.

[AFBlue]

If Dudley is Raja Bell (i.e. shooter w/ D) then it works out better for the Spurs....chase him off the 3pt line. I was assuming he had a good in-between game based on what I saw from him in college (as a PF)...I guess he's now just a jump shooter?

[024]

dudley can get hot from the three point line so the spurs have to smother him early so he doesn't get going.

[mando6599]

Wasn't Dudley on the Spurs' draft board/radar a couple of years ago? Must've seen something promising in him.

[Cane]

Is he still tweeting about how to defend against Manu? ;)