Overestimating Mavs, Underestimating Suns

[Creation88]

seems like everyone overestimated the Mavs going into that series and now (because of our history with PHX) it seems like everyone is underestimating them.

however, this is a new PHX team. they have different players and thus different match up problem.

does anyone else have "appropriate fear" going into this series?

[z0sa]

Fear no one, respect everyone

There is no such as appropriate fear, you're either afraid because you suck or you're afraid because you think you suck, the Spurs should hold neither.

The Mavs were a better team, and I'd go as far as to say they were a tier higher, an actual contender as opposed to Phoenix, overachievers this year.

Overall, the Spurs should feel confident, but they need to go out and play 48 minutes and not take these Suns for granted a single second.

[Alocalscientologist]

As long as the entire team shoots 3s well (including Tim Duncan), you guys should be fine.

...

:lmao

Looking forward to a LAL-PHX WCF series.

[Brazil]

seems like everyone overestimated the mavs going into that series and now (because of our history with phx) it seems like everyone is underestimating them.

However, this is a new phx team. They have different players and thus different match up problem.

Does anyone else have "appropriate fear" going into this series?

+1

[dreamcastrocks]

You guys should feel confident against us. I'd expect to win every time you played the Suns until you actually lose a series.

[Sense]

I was more "afraid" of the Mavericks than of the Suns...

Suns aren't a physical team, and Duncan is going to take advantage of that.

Hill is blossoming into a star, McDyess is playing like he never did during the regular season... Blair is still scary, and against a Suns team... I'm salivating. The only thing I would be worried about is the injuries... especially Manu's. I think we can only beat ourselves.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Don't worry. In the ebb and flow of fandom I'm sure there will be a fair share of doubters creep up over the course of the series. Fans of both teams probably feel pretty confident considering how well both teams took care of business in round 1.

[4>0rings]

seems like everyone overestimated the Mavs going into that series and now (because of our history with PHX) it seems like everyone is underestimating them.

however, this is a new PHX team. they have different players and thus different match up problem.

does anyone else have "appropriate fear" going into this series?Seems like everyone thinks Spurs in 4, 5. That's a joke. Phoenix is a really good team. This is going 7 Spurs.

[Ignignokt]

http://www.andysautosport.com/images/subsites/cold_air_intakes/chevrolet_tahoe.jpg

[TampaDude]

The Suns can kill us with the 3. Defend the perimeter and we win.

[coyotes_geek]

It's only natural given the Spurs success against the suns and the trouble with the mavs. But that emotion is just for the fans. I'm sure the Spurs are looking at Phoenix with the appropriate respect.

[Dex]

I agree with the OP on this. I think a lot of Spur fans are writing this series off as a gimme just because we've beaten the Suns the past four times we've faced them.

The fact of the matter is that outside of Nash and Stoudemire, the complexion of Phoenix has changed dramatically. They are versatile offensively, and Amare is going to beast just like Nowitzki did. Shutting down the Suns isn't going to be as easy as shutting down Dallas, which seemed to be simply a matter of staying home on Kidd, Terry, and Marion. Plus, the Suns are playing an inspired level of defense (for the Suns, anyways), so I don't expect the Spurs to run roughshod through them anymore.

It would be a mistake to underestimate this opponent just because they are wearing purple and orange. This playoff run is shaping up the be a gauntlet, and all the Spurs buddies have come along for the ride.

[Old School 44]

seems like everyone overestimated the Mavs going into that series and now (because of our history with PHX) it seems like everyone is underestimating them.

however, this is a new PHX team. they have different players and thus different match up problem.

does anyone else have "appropriate fear" going into this series?

I agree, they are different teams. J-Rich is a much better 3rd wheel than Marion and the Suns are much deeper than past teams. I still think the key is Nash. Make him work hard on both ends and you have a good chance.

I said this in another post, but if the Spurs split the first two, even though the Suns are much different team, I think the past comes into play. The media will just drill the Suns players about the team's history with the Spurs, even though many of them weren't on those teams.

[z0sa]

This thread is premature, if the Suns come out and win Game 1 handily, then this would make sense.

Since the Spurs just upset the Mavs and pretty handily at times, including a blowout on their home floor, I think we should have some faith and confidence in what our team is capable of. The Mavs > Suns and I think that's more fact than opinion personally

[Halberto]

They're a better team than most people here give them credit for, but they're still a 3-point shooting team. Their defense might be better, but they still have the black hole that is Steve Nash.

We'll lose tonight, but we'll win the series in 7

[rjv]

suns are not going to be easy

[The Truth #6]

The Suns excell at shooting the 3. Luckily, the Spurs have always focused on defending the 3. It won't be easy but it isn't a foreign concept for the Spurs. I think the Suns could defend Manu well, which would be a change from years past.

It will be interesting to see if Richardson stays on a hot streak.

[fyatuk]

I wouldn't say fear, but nervous or anxious maybe.

What's getting me is reading the previews. A lot of them basically state the Suns are the better and deeper team, but the Spurs will win because they always beat the Suns. That's asinine thinking.

Spurs need 3 pt shooters besides Manu and Hill to actually hit the broad side of the barn (and with Mason and Bonner in the playoffs, that's fairly doubtful), and limit Nash's ability to generate the offense. If Nash gets 10+ assists, the Suns will win. Pop needs to use more than 7 men a game in this series. If the Spurs can't get respectable play from at least 8 (preferably 9) in this series, they'll lose.

Hopefully, Parker will be MVP caliber like normal against the Suns, and Nash will get worn out since he'll actually have to guard someone unless Bogans in on the court. 'Dyess might limit STAT more than he's ever been in a series against the Spurs if he plays as good a defense as he did against Dirk.

There's a lot of things that could happen. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

[Creation88]

Fear no one, respect everyone

There is no such as appropriate fear, you're either afraid because you suck or you're afraid because you think you suck, the Spurs should hold neither.

The Mavs were a better team, and I'd go as far as to say they were a tier higher, an actual contender as opposed to Phoenix, overachievers this year.

Overall, the Spurs should feel confident, but they need to go out and play 48 minutes and not take these Suns for granted a single second.

appropriate fear is what Pop preaches going into every series. perhaps he means respect but you'd be wise to have some fear (maybe stemming from success) because they're so good offensively.

[Cherry]

does anyone else have "appropriate fear" going into this series?

PHX?
Always.

If they play good defence, omg.

[TDMVPDPOY]

could care less about them, even if they beat us still we have the rings

[EricB]

I think what is gonna be different defense wise is the giant drop in interior defense from last series to this series.

Alot of manu's misses and duncan's in the last couple games were due to the length of the mavericks.

If u come ou tonight and be agressive u can get the suns in foul trouble.

Same rules apply. Take care of the ball, defend the three, rebound, drive to the hole everytime.

[EricB]

I think what is gonna be different defense wise is the giant drop in interior defense from last series to this series.

Alot of manu's misses and duncan's in the last couple games were due to the length of the mavericks.

If u come ou tonight and be agressive u can get the suns in foul trouble.

Same rules apply. Take care of the ball, defend the three, rebound, drive to the hole everytime.

[DesignatedT]

If Spurs stay fresh and healthy they got it. simple as that. No disrespect to phoenix.

[smrattler]

This OP is almost a direct quote from this morning's radio show, I think Peter Burns said it?

Anyway, I agree to an extent. Personally, I don't think fans in S.A. are so much as underestimating the Suns as much as they are just relieved to have gotten out of the 1st round. A Mavs first round elimination of the Spurs would have been devestating. We don't fear the Suns anyway but even if they beat us, it would not be devestating. Just my opinion anyway.

[z0sa]

appropriate fear is what Pop preaches going into every series. perhaps he means respect but you'd be wise to have some fear (maybe stemming from success) because they're so good offensively.


If Spurs stay fresh and healthy they got it. simple as that. No disrespect to phoenix.

Basically what I'm saying. I think the Mavs were a helluva team, and better than Phoenix. Doesn't mean Phoenix isn't a helluva team in their own right, but we've already beaten a statistically better team this postseason.

[Thomas]

please don't underestimate the Suns, they are better than the Mavs

[Strike]

Dice needs to make Amare work on offense. Tony and/or Manu needs to make Nash work on Defense. The team as a whole needs to force Phoenix to slow it down and play a half court game. If those 3 things can happen, plus efficient scoring by SA, the Spurs will win in 5 or 6.

[easy7]

So you think PHX is a "new team" and the Spurs are the same old Spurs? So are we not to take into account all the new players that have made the Spurs better? If that is the case then the Suns win. I think the Spurs upgrades are better than the Suns. Suns got better and so did the Spurs, so it let the chips fall where they may.

[8FOR!3]

Fact is though, Phoenix doesn't have any more legit three point shooters than Dallas. Maybe one.

[EricB]

please don't underestimate the Suns, they are better than the Mavs


Defensively no way. They pale in comparison to Dallas. Offensively yes they are better.

[TDomination]

Match up wise, I was way more worried about the Mavericks than the Suns. And I still feel that way.

Suns are playing very well right now but I still do feel they are a good match up for us.

Now that doesn't mean that this isn't going to be a tough series or that they might not beat us, but I do feel less worried about the Suns than I did against Mavs, just by a small margin.

[Bukefal]

Well, we did great against the mavs and nobody, nor ourselves expected that, so now we are jumping too high with our heads in the clouds thinking we will beat the suns just like that. It doesnt have so much to do with underestimating the suns, but rather because we think everything is easy now and were going do to the same with the suns. Because of we beat the mavs and thinking we are now great.

It's going to be tough, the Suns are a different team, we will have our hands full. I still think we'll make it, but its certainly not going to be easy.

[urunobili]

The same revenge we had vs the Mavs the suns have against us... tough tough series... I am not sure we can beat them...

[PDXSpursFan]

The only thing I fear are the Spurs themselves. Can they stay healthy? Can they keep playing solid D? Can the offense keep rolling and not revert to the mediocre level that we saw most of the regular season?
If the Spurs can play at least to the same level than they played the Mavs, I don't see any possible way of losing this series. This Suns team is just not better than the Mavs we just beat.

[4>0rings]

Spurs are aways rusty as hell coming off of more than 1 day rest. Expect to have no energy, TO's, no hustle tonight. Suns win by 8.

[AFBlue]

Even if the role players are different, the formula for beating them is the same...

1. Focus on Transition D...stop run-outs, fastbreak opportunities

2. Chase PHX role players off 3pt line...force them to put the ball on the floor

3. Get the ball out of Nash's hands on O and make him work on D

4. Turn Amare into a scorer...if possible, make him a jumpshooter

5. Attack the paint...Duncan on the low block, Parker/Ginobili/Hill/Jefferson penetrating

Because the Spurs don't really have to concentrate on combatting the Suns defense, it plays right into the "defense first" mentality that is the team's identity...notice that 4 of the 5 points are defense-oriented.

If the Spurs can consistently execute in all or most of those areas, they've got the edge in this series.

[da_suns_fan]

Good thread. I dont know why people continue to say the Mavs were "a better team".

They couldnt even figure out what their BASIC rotations were. Ive never seen a series where MULTIPLE players went from big minutes to the doghouse and back again.

The final minutes of last game featured that French dude who I had never even HEARD OF.

I thought the Spurs played mediocre the last series. The Mavs just played WORSE.

[da_suns_fan]

Defensively no way. They pale in comparison to Dallas. Offensively yes they are better.

The Mavs dont have anyone as good, defensively, as Grant Hill or Jard Dudley.

Its not even close.

[WeNeedLength]

The Mavs dont have anyone as good, defensively, as Grant Hill or Jard Dudley.

Its not even close.


http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/defensiveEff/order/false

Mavs are 12th, Suns are 19th in defensive efficiency.

[da_suns_fan]

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/defensiveEff/order/false

Mavs are 12th, Suns are 19th in defensive efficiency.

Then they should have AT LEAST one really good defender, right?

[easjer]

I personally felt the Mavs were a bigger hurdle in terms of a good team playing well and the mental and emotional aspects of that rivalry, which go both ways.

I think the rivalry with the Suns is more one-sided that the SA/DAL rivalry. We've certainly given them reason to despise us, but they haven't really beat us (sort of like LA/SA recently). I don't think it has the same emotional weight for the Spurs that Dallas did.

Which could work in the Suns' favor.

But I feel like the matchup is better than against Dallas, and while I think the Suns played well, I don't fear them. I think the Spurs are playing well and know how to get the job done. I finally have the feeling that they can win if they play well.

If they lose, then I'm wrong. Oh well. I don't believe it's ever really mattered what fans think anyway. I'm quite certain the Spurs aren't looking beyond the Suns.

[phxspurfan]

They couldnt even figure out what theyre BASIC rotations were. Ive never seen a series where MULTIPLE players went from big minutes to the doghouse and back again.

That's because of bad coaching, not the players' fault. Butler should have played 48 minutes every game of the series.

I'll go on the record and say Dallas is the better team than Phoenix. They had a better record, a better road record and play in a tougher division -- a division that they easily won. Talent-wise they are stronger. Coaching is a wash...I think neither Gentry nor Carlisle have made it to the finals once.

But the matchups are equally challenging in this series, as the Suns have the same two main talents that the Spurs will have to defend: a beast of a PF and a SG/SF that can light it up if he gets going. Nash and Kidd are about a wash as far as legendary PGs go. I expect the series will go to 5 games, with the Spurs winning in 5.

[da_suns_fan]

That's because of bad coaching, not the players' fault. Butler should have played 48 minutes every game of the series.

I'll go on the record and say Dallas is the better team than Phoenix. They had a better record, a better road record and play in a tougher division -- a division that they easily won. Talent-wise they are stronger. Coaching is a wash...I think neither Gentry nor Carlisle have made it to the finals once.

But the matchups are equally challenging in this series, as the Suns have the same two main talents that the Spurs will have to defend: a beast of a PF and a SG/SF that can light it up if he gets going. Nash and Kidd are about a wash as far as legendary PGs go. I expect the series will go to 5 games, with the Spurs winning in 5.

True, they are both legends.

Of course, Jason Kidd has been a notoriously bad shooter his entire career where Steve Nash continues to set the record for consecutive seasons shooting 50% from the field, 40% from 3 and 90% from the free throw line.

Other than that, theyre practically twins!

I agree, Dallas' coach did an awful, awful job. Ive never even seen that before.

Spurs in five is so laughably stupid its not even worth dignifying with a response. Theres going to be a huge tremor when you guys come back down to earth in a few hours.

[mavsfan1000]

The Suns are a better team. The Mavs overachieved in the regular but their lack of inside game (Poor coaching) was really exposed in the playoffs. The Suns got an inside game and a very athletic bunch. I can guarantee this series will be tougher than the Mavs.

[Cane]

Suns haven't been tested anywhere near as much as the Spurs have - its going to come down to Manu's performance given his broken nose and whether or not Duncan still has vintage nights left in him.

Suns and Portland didn't play anywhere near as physical. If the Spurs aren't worn out I see 'em taking this easier than the Mavs.

[Sisk]

The Suns can kill us with the 3. Defend the perimeter and we win.

This. If the Suns shoot 40% from 3 pt land as a team, I'd be wary of our chances.

[da_suns_fan]

Suns haven't been tested anywhere near as much as the Spurs have - its going to come down to Manu's performance given his broken nose and whether or not Duncan still has vintage nights left in him.

Suns and Portland didn't play anywhere near as physical. If the Spurs aren't worn out I see 'em taking this easier than the Mavs.

:lol

You obviously didnt watch a single game of Suns/Blazers. I think there was a record broken for number of times the word "chippy" was used to describe the game.

Likewise, Im not sure what kind of test the Spurs faced when the Mavs' coach basically had multiple personality disorder. It was as if he chose lineups using darts.

[Cane]

I did, the Mavs/Spurs was much more physical and it wasn't even close. Tons of contact went unnoticed.

[da_suns_fan]

I did, the Mavs/Spurs was much more physical and it wasn't even close. Tons of contact went unnoticed.

:lol

By everyone except you, right?

[Cane]

Mavs/Spurs actually felt like a playoff game in terms of physicality and intensity.

Not sure what PHX has to say about that, thats been a weakness and last series didn't have anywhere as much crazy shit going on.

Mavs/Spurs were much more tested.

[Ghazi]

Then they should have AT LEAST one really good defender, right?

Shaaawn Marion :smokin

except v Ginobili

[Morg1411]

I'm actually more afraid of PHX than I was of Dallas. The Spurs need to stay focused, and not take anything for granted.

[silverblk mystix]

I think that everyone IS underestimating the suns...

they were on a great roll in the 2nd half of the season---playing as well as anyone---and that means that their confidence is sky high...

they have some players that are going to surprise spurs fans---dragic and a couple of others like frye and ahmundsen come to mind---NOT that they are great on their own---but as role players they have really done their jobs extremely well...

their defense will surprise the spurs---and they are known to go on huge runs---starting with their defense...

but ...IMO ...

THIS---is what i believe will determine the series; is the suns defense good---or is it---CHAMPIONSHIP level good...?????

that to me is the real question

the spurs can and will probably reach champion-level defense---but can the suns???

[Mixability]

Should be an awesome series, but definitely not an easy one.

[AFBlue]

they have some players that are going to surprise spurs fans---dragic and a couple of others like frye and ahmundsen come to mind---NOT that they are great on their own---but as role players they have really done their jobs extremely well...

their defense will surprise the spurs---and they are known to go on huge runs---starting with their defense...

but ...IMO ...

THIS---is what i believe will determine the series; is the suns defense good---or is it---CHAMPIONSHIP level good...?????

that to me is the real question

the spurs can and will probably reach champion-level defense---but can the suns???

You hit on a good point and asked a very pertinent question.

Yes the Suns have a good supporting case that includes Richardson, Dragic, Dudley, Frye and even Amundson...but if the ball is in the hands of any one of those guys in crunch time, the Spurs have the edge. As good of role players as they may be, they're not superstars and they haven't been in a high-pressure situation like the ones they're likely to be in this series.

About the defense...it's not what they hang their hat on. They have decent defenders in Hill and Dudley, but they didn't necessarily lack those defenders in past years. Defense is a culture that is bought into by the entire team and becomes part of a team's identity...while the Suns have players that are capable of playing good D, the team as a whole can't be counted on to get stops when they need it most.

I don't doubt it will be a good series, but because the Spurs are a defensive-minded team and can focus on slowing down the Suns O, they should be able to pull this one out. It's not "underestimating"...it's looking realistically at the team makeups.

[alchemist]

Most of the games against Dallas were pretty damn close so how did people overestimate them????

also

Any idiot thinking the Suns are a cakewalk are in for a rude awakening. I seriously believe the Suns will win the series and I personally will be surprised if the Spurs can pull it off.

[murpjf88]

I'm actually more afraid of PHX than I was of Dallas. The Spurs need to stay focused, and not take anything for granted.

You should be. Phoenix is by far, a more complete team than Dallas ever was. This series is going to be tougher than the Mavs series.

Spurs have no answer for Amare or Nash and they can't defend the pick n roll. If the Spurs can't contain Phx's three point shooters, this could get ugly.

Spurs fans continue to take The Suns defense for granted, but they managed to hold Portland to 90.6 ppg on 42.2 fg% in games 2-6.

Anyone who doesn't take the Suns seriously is only kidding themselves and will be in for a rude awakening.

[murpjf88]

Most of the games against Dallas were pretty damn close so how did people overestimate them????

also

Any idiot thinking the Suns are a cakewalk are in for a rude awakening. I seriously believe the Suns will win the series and I personally will be surprised if the Spurs can pull it off.

Since when did you become a voice of reason?

[dbestpro]

Its funny but it seems there are alot of Spur fans that would not be as upset losing to the Suns as they would be to the Mavs or the Lakers. I think we understand that the law of averages will eventually give a series to the Suns. Whether, it is the year or a hundred years from now if anybody's guess.

[AFBlue]

Spurs have no answer for Amare or Nash and they can't defend the pick n roll. If the Spurs can't contain Phx's three point shooters, this could get ugly.

Spurs fans continue to take The Suns defense for granted, but they managed to hold Portland to 90.6 ppg on 42.2 fg% in games 2-6.


Disagree that the Spurs have no answer for Nash or Amare and the pick-n-roll. They have much better individual defenders in Hill and Dice than they did previously and they have displayed much better execution of team defense down the stretch into the playoffs.

I also don't give the Suns much credit for their defense, because it doesn't bear out over the long haul. Yes, they played good defense for a series, but it doesn't hurt their stats that Portland's best player was absent for the majority of the series and maybe 60% when he did play. You're talking about a full compliment of healthy players...Duncan is better than Aldridge, Manu is better than 60% Roy and there's no one on that team even close to Parker.

I have serious doubts that Phoenix will be able to make the stops when it counts.

[alchemist]

Since when did you become a voice of reason?
?????

[murpjf88]

Disagree that the Spurs have no answer for Nash or Amare and the pick-n-roll. They have much better individual defenders in Hill and Dice than they did previously and they have displayed much better execution of team defense down the stretch into the playoffs.

I also don't give the Suns much credit for their defense, because it doesn't bear out over the long haul. Yes, they played good defense for a series, but it doesn't hurt their stats that Portland's best player was absent for the majority of the series and maybe 60% when he did play. You're talking about a full compliment of healthy players...Duncan is better than Aldridge, Manu is better than 60% Roy and there's no one on that team even close to Parker.

I have serious doubts that Phoenix will be able to make the stops when it counts.

The Suns don't have lock-down defenders, but they create turnovers that lead to easy transition baskets.. While Manu and Tony may be a tough cover, they have a tendency to be careless with the basketball , which could prove costly in the open floor. They're also very active with their hands, they can create turnovers just by slapping the ball out of the oppositions hand.

The Spurs have to be very weary of the Suns ability to score points in bunches. Their bench is deeper with Babosa, Dudley, Dragic, and Frye. This can be a huge advantage with a team that loves to push the tempo. They may not be the gun slingin' Suns of old, but they can certainly score points in a hurry. In a series that scheduled to play every other day, This almost forces Pop to use Mason and Bogans in limited minutes.

This will be a tough series to win.

[murpjf88]

?????

Your usually an optimist. I'm surprised your going with the Suns. I don't blame you because this series will be tougher than the Mavs series.

[alchemist]

Your usually an optimist. I'm surprised your going with the Suns. I don't blame you because this series will be tougher than the Mavs series.
Yeah that's true, I just think the Suns are in a different place mentally which is huge (see: Dallas owning Spurs). Even their crowd is more vicious, just take a look at the Spurs last game against the Suns. Ginobili and Tim went down and the Suns crowd erupted. I definitely will be amazed if the Spurs somehow win this series.

[AFBlue]

The Suns don't have lock-down defenders, but they create turnovers that lead to easy transition baskets.. While Manu and Tony may be a tough cover, they have a tendency to be careless with the basketball , which could prove costly in the open floor. They're also very active with their hands, they can create turnovers just by slapping the ball out of the oppositions hand.

The Spurs have to be very weary of the Suns ability to score points in bunches. Their bench is deeper with Babosa, Dudley, Dragic, and Frye. This can be a huge advantage with a team that loves to push the tempo. They may not be the gun slingin' Suns of old, but they can certainly score points in a hurry. In a series that scheduled to play every other day, This almost forces Pop to use Mason and Bogans in limited minutes.

This will be a tough series to win.

Agree that the backcourt has a tendency to be careless, but I don't think the Suns are any more prolific at creating those turnovers than the Mavericks were. Limiting turnovers definitely has to be a priority though.

And I understand about the Suns' offense, but how is that different from past years? The formula is still the same...chase shooter off 3pt line, concentrate on transition D, and deny Nash/Stoudamire down the stretch (i.e. put the ball into the role-players' hands to make a play).

Obviously it's harder to execute than it is to write (!), which is why I agree that it'll be a tough series...but I still expect the Spurs to win in 6.

[raspsa]

It's only natural given the Spurs success against the suns and the trouble with the mavs. But that emotion is just for the fans. I'm sure the Spurs are looking at Phoenix with the appropriate respect.

Agree 100%. Trust in Pop.

[Horse]

As long as the entire team shoots 3s well (including Tim Duncan), you guys should be fine.

...This coming from a guy with a tom cruise picture fucking queer!

:lmao

Looking forward to a LAL-PHX WCF series.

[Zammers]

I'm thinking we are going to take Game 1. Parker is wayyyyy too much for Nash to handle. We let Amare get his but we lock down their shooters. Amare tends to pick up quick fouls so I think that taking the ball to the rim and attacking with our guards then working Timmy into the low post game should be the attack. Should be interesting. We'll know a little more in 5 minutes......

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