Player Analysis - Spurs vs. Suns 2010 Playoff Preview

[timvp]

Although the Mavs and the Suns both feature Hall of Fame point guards who love to get out and run, the similarities end there. The Suns will be an entirely new challenge. For the Spurs to advance, here's a look at what each player needs to do.

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Tim Duncan
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3173.jpg

On paper, Tim Duncan should have his way with these Suns. As long as Robin Lopez is out injured, Phoenix lacks a player that has the size and defensive skill to defend Duncan without double-team help. Duncan's job is to transfer this paper advantage to a real advantage. An old school, back to the basket attack should be the gameplan for Duncan. If he can prove his dominance, the double-teams will open up space for shooters. On the defensive end, Duncan's mobility will be tested. The Suns will undoubtedly force him to run as much as possible and have him to defend shooters and/or quicker players if he's not going to guard Amare Stoudemire. Getting back on defense and staying out of foul trouble should be his two focal points on that end.
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Manu Ginobili
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3380.jpg

Defense is where Manu Ginobili needs to concentrate first. He'll likely be matched up against Jason Richardson to begin the series. If that's the case, Ginobili's transition defense has to be impeccable and he can't roam too far in the halfcourt sets. On offense, it will be more pick-and-rolls for Ginobili. I expect Grant Hill to start off on him and while Hill has very good length, Ginobili should have the quickness advantage. Fighting through the pain and cumbersomeness of the broken nose to be able to attack the basket is key. A relentless Ginobili would be nearly impossible for the Suns to stop.
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Tony Parker
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3527.jpg

Tony Parker in pick-and-rolls has killed many Suns teams in the past. This year, the Suns are better coached defensively and send swifter help defense, so Parker won't have it as easy. That said, Parker's speed and ability to finish at the rim should be utilized early and often by San Antonio. On defense, Parker needs to pick up Steve Nash early and pressure his dribble. When defending Goran Dragic, Parker has to honor his three-point shot. If the Spurs struggle at all in this series, expect Parker to be inserted into the starting lineup. A healthy Parker may be San Antonio's biggest advantage against the Suns.
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George Hill
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/4488.jpg

Can George Hill continue to blossom? He'll get a chance to be a star against the Suns. Although he hasn't defended Nash very well historically, Hill is developing so fast as an all-around basketball player that he may be able to surprise and slow Nash. On the offensive side, Hill will likely be defended by Nash. If that's the case, he has to be aggressive from the opening tip and take advantage. Overall, this series will test Hill's smarts. With the ball, he has to know Nash will try to draw offensive fouls. Defensively, Hill has to read and react to Nash's every move. It will be a challenge but hopefully Hill is ready to get even better.
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Richard Jefferson
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3523.jpg

If Richard Jefferson is going to have a breakout series, it'll be against a fast paced team like the Suns. That said, I'll settle for another quiet yet solid series out of Jefferson. On offense, his main job will take advantage of mismatches. The Suns may look to hide defenders on Jefferson so he has to be ready to attack the rim if that occurs. He'll also get open looks from deep and it'd be nice if he could regain his three-point shooting touch. On defense, I expect him to see a lot of Grant Hill. When mano-a-mano against Hill, Jefferson needs to limit the early midrange jumpers Hill likes to shoot. It should also be noted that Hill was Phoenix's best rebounder in the first round. If Jefferson can out-rebound Hill in this series, that alone would make Jefferson valuable.
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Antonio McDyess
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3004.jpg

Even with Dirk Nowitzki in the rear-view mirror, Antonio McDyess won't get much rest. Amare Stoudemire will be waiting and he presents an equally as difficult challenge. Stoudemire's athleticism in pick-and-rolls is legendary and McDyess will have to find a way to challenge Stoudemire after the catch without racking up the fouls. McDyess' best work will be done if he can force Stoudemire to shoot contested jumpers. Offensively, McDyess has to keep firing his jumper to open up the middle for penetration. Making simple passes is also important. McDyess got in trouble in the first round whenever he tried to make any sort of difficult pass.
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Matt Bonner
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3748.jpg

Maybe Matt Bonner just struggles against the Mavs in the playoffs? Let us hope that's the case. The Suns will likely give him even more open looks, so if Bonner is shooting poorly again, his negative effect on the Spurs will be exacerbated. In a perfect world, Bonner would revert to his regular season form and be a key sub for the Spurs against these speedy Suns. Bonner is the most mobile bigman on the team and could allow the Spurs to keep size on the court when the Suns go small. I'm not holding by breath but Bonner really has no excuse not to be at least somewhat useful in this series.
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DeJuan Blair
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/4642.jpg

DeJuan Blair is another Spur who on paper should have success against the Suns. His strength, bulk and ability to rebound should give Phoenix trouble. However, this won't be an easy series for Blair on the defensive end. Outside of Jarron Collins, every other potential matchup will challenge Blair's overall knowledge of the team's defensive principals. He still struggles in rotation and if the Suns are able to exploit that weakness, Pop may have a quick hook with Blair. Since the Suns are so explosive, the Spurs simply can't afford a weak link on the defensive end.
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Roger Mason, Jr.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3628.jpg

If there's a sleeper on the Spurs heading into the second round, it's Roger Mason, Jr. -- yes, the same player who was absolutely horrible against the Mavs. The NBA playoffs are all about matchups and Mason matches up very well with the Suns. On the defensive end, Mason's lack of quickness won't be as notable against spot-up shooters. Offensively, the Suns may be forced to give him open looks. If Mason can knock down a few shots, his confidence could return. The Spurs need a few bench players to step up to create depth ... and I'm cautiously optimistic that Mason may be one of those players.
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Keith Bogans
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3746.jpg

I don't see much use for Keith Bogans against the Suns. Pop may use him against Nash or Richardson, however the Spurs have other options who aren't as detrimental offensively. Since San Antonio is going to have to put points on the board to win this series, Bogans on the bench is preferred.
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Malik Hairston
http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/8769/malikhairstongt.jpg

Malik Hairston didn't see any action in the first round. Don't expect that to change. Right now, he's basically Bogans minus experience.
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Garrett Temple
http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/2170/garretttempleface.jpg

Garrett Temple's only value at this point is as an emergency point guard. He's currently fourth on the point guard depth charts behind Hill, Parker and Ginobili.
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Ian Mahinmi
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3954.jpg

Physically, Ian Mahinmi is the closest thing the Spurs have to Stoudemire ... but he'll only play in blowouts.
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[coyotes_geek]

Good stuff. Definitely agree about Mason and Bonner. Only going 7 deep isn't going to cut it against Phoenix. Phoenix isn't as obsessed about chasing shooters off the 3 point line as Dallas is, so hopefully that translates into some cleaner looks for those 2 guys. Mason especially. Nash and Richardson are going to make Hill/Parker/Ginobili work harder on D than they had to against Kidd and Terry. The Spurs wanted Kidd to shoot and Terry is primarily just a spot up shooter. You have to respect Nash's ability to both shoot and pass and Richardson is a much more versatile scorer than Terry is. Being able to get quality minutes out of Mason would go a long ways towards keeping TP/Manu/Hill fresh.

[neboat]

Great analysis.

A little detail I like to add is the defense shouldn't concentrate on Nash so much when he dribbles under the basket. He always looks for Stoudemire in those situations.

[Doe]

I agree about Mason as well. Like Bonner his only Playoff experience was against the Mavs. Unfortunately he's been sucking against everyone. He's had good games against the Suns in the past so I'm hoping he can get his confidence back this series.

[stéphane]

Nice breakdown timvp.

I'm surprised you still have (cautious) confidence in RMJ still. Since last year playoff he's been the closest thing to disapointment (even way more than RJ at his worst).

[pad300]

Bonner is a more mobile big man than Ian?

[objective]

My biggest worry would be the absence of Robin Lopez encouraging Pop to go small, which would mean more time for the Three Chokemen of the Apocalypse: Bonner, Mason and Bogans.

These guys are bricklaying chokers. Sad, but true. Maybe it's just a Dallas thing, but that sounds more fanciful than merely optimistic.

And their disastrous misses will be doubly bad against the Suns who will be able to turn those clangs into transition opportunities.

When Pop sees Frye and Admundson out there, I can see it being a Bonner fest. When there's a Dragic-Barbosa-Dudley or Nash-Dragic-Dudley grouping, there could be a Mason sighting. And if Mason is given any ballhandling responsibilities while on the court with Parker or Manu, that will be a wreck.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

When will we get a series prediction? Last time you fared really well :lol

[SpursRulez4eVeR]

When will we get a series prediction? Last time you fared really well :lol

:hungry:

[MannyIsGod]

I have high hopes for my ginger friend. I hope he's able to shine in this series.

[SpursTillTheEnd]

Mason is gone he has lost all his confidence he won't make any shots this series, bogans would be a better fit against the suns.

[m33p0]

RJ is gonna have a big series with all the wide open spaces he will run on.

[Spurs Brazil]

I think Bonner will have a better series I doubt Mason can give us anything but I hope I'm wrong.

If TD can keep the same level during the whole series I like our chances

[da_suns_fan]

Nice breakdown timvp.

I'm surprised you still have (cautious) confidence in RMJ still. Since last year playoff he's been the closest thing to disapointment (even way more than RJ at his worst).

I was at the game in April where Mason drained a plethera of threes.

I think the Suns need to focus on Hill and Mason on the three point line. Everyone else...let em shoot.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I was at the game in April where Mason drained a plethera of threes.

I think the Suns need to focus on Hill and Mason on the three point line. Everyone else...let em shoot.

Are you worried about Nash's hip, or do you think he'll be fine?

I have a terrible feeling Goran Dragic is gonna rape the Spurs, of all people.

[anonoftheinternets]

Are you worried about Nash's hip, or do you think he'll be fine?

I have a terrible feeling Goran Dragic is gonna rape the Spurs, of all people.

isnt this his first PO? i expect some hesitation if that is the case. PO != regular season.

[TD 21]

At this point I have no expectations for Mason (and Bonner), but Mason did shoot well twice this season against the Suns and one of those came after his torn ligament in his pinky.

[Lebowski Brickowski]

Are you worried about Nash's hip, or do you think he'll be fine?

I have a terrible feeling Goran Dragic is gonna rape the Spurs, of all people.

Yes. Dragic is a sleeper to fear imo.


Key players:
McDyess in PnR defense and pick and pop 18 footers on offense

Matt Bonner has a chance to score double figs every game vs. suns -- if he does, and doesn't get abused on D, he could be critical to success

Tony Parker
I'd like him to start alongside Georgie vs. suns. Tony can set the pace and put the suns on their heels w/ penetration+ FTs and w/ defense on hobbled nash.

[EricB]

An up and down game suits bonner to a point as well. I can see bonner and mason having bounce back series....

[timtonymanu]

Im a big Mason hater, but I feel like he will do something this series. I think ever since his buzzer beater against Phoenix last year, he has felt confident against them. Hopefully he proves me right. We need some 3 point shooters this series.

[vander]

we're not going to make it through another series with Manu shooting under 42%