Final Prediction - Spurs vs. Suns 2010 Playoff Preview

[timvp]

When the Spurs took on the Mavs in the first round, I thought I had a good feel for how the series would unfold. As it turned out, it went much as I expected.

Unfortunately, the Spurs vs. Suns series is much more difficult to foresee. The main reason being the unknown health status of three of the best players in the series: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Steve Nash.

As I rewatched the series against the Mavs, it was painfully clear that Duncan and Ginobili played with less energy and less explosiveness as the series progressed. If San Antonio's twosome can't reverse that trend and find a second wind, the Spurs can't beat the Suns -- no matter how many other advantages the Spurs may have.

On the other side of the horizon, Nash's injury could doom the Suns even before the series begins. If he can't move better than he did in Game 6 against the Blazers, a healthy Spurs team could potentially issue a sweep. Additionally, Robin Lopez's unsure status for the series further fogs the picture.

For my prediction, I will assume that Duncan, Ginobili and Nash will remain healthy and Lopez won't return at 100%. In Game 1, the Spurs will dig their way out of a deficit and Ginobili will attack the rim relentlessly during the fourth quarter to give the Spurs a victory. The Suns will bounce back by picking up the pace in Game 2 and getting on fire from three-point range. The Spurs will surrender a big lead in Game 3 but will hang on for a win. Game 4 will see Tony Parker have his best game of the series in an eight-point victory. The Spurs will drop a winnable Game 5 but will bounce back and cool the Suns for good in Game 6.

This is definitely a dangerous series for the Spurs. Health is a concern but the Suns may also stay hot and just prove to be too deep. If Phoenix's young guns are all clicking, they could very well have too much ammunition for San Antonio to handle. Thankfully, I think the Spurs will play well enough in transition defense to keep the young role players for the Suns at bay. That will allow for Duncan, Ginobili and Parker to shine brightest.

I'm most worried about getting Game 1. It's a game the Spurs need to get considering the rest they've had between the series. If they don't come out sharp and get this road win, their hope of winning the series decreases sharply.

Get Game 1. Set the tone. Remind the Suns of their recent history. Set the table for another trip to the Western Conference Finals.

Believe.

[anonoftheinternets]

nice .. hope ur right again ...altho i would prefer spurs in 5 :D ...

[DesignatedT]

Lets hope your right again!!

Go Spurs Go

[TD 21]

Game one is hugely important. I'm expecting 24-30 points and 13-17 rebounds out of Duncan. Pop needs to coach this game how he would any of the home games. If Duncan has to play 41-42 minutes, so be it. If Ginobili has to play 38-40, so be it. McDyess, if has to play 32-35 minutes, so be it. If this game is a win, game two becomes a throwaway game. Similar to game five of the Mavs series, where the Mavs (in this case, Suns) predictably come out like their season is on the line and the Spurs keep their key players minutes down and look ahead to game three.

[Optimus Choade]

Victoria bots assemble!

[Fpoonsie]

When the Spurs took on the Mavs in the first round, I thought I had a good feel for how the series would unfold. As it turned out, it went much as I expected.

Jeeeeez. Where's the horn-tooting troll when ya need him?

:stirpot:

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I rewatched the last two games of the Mavs series over the weekend. Dude the health of Duncan and Ginobili is such a huge issue. I'm a natural pessimist and I just don't see how a four day rest or so makes much of a difference. Moreover, with no two day rest in this entire series I just don't see us having the juice left in the tank to beat this team.

If those two are healthy no doubt in my mind even a 100% healthy Suns team can beat us.

I hope I'm wrong.


Also timvp how well do you think George Hill will match up against the Suns this series? Brainstorming I came to the conclusion that we may be going from a team that is matchup heaven for him (Dallas) to a team he does not matchup well against at all.

[TD 21]

I don't know if it's health so much as it is pacing themselves. These guys know that in at least four of the seven games (if it goes the distance) that they're going to have to play extended minutes. They don't have it in them to play an energetic 40 minutes anymore. They have to pick their spots, even in the big games. Which is why I expect in the games they feel are must wins them to come out like they're shot out of a cannon, get the team the lead and then save themselves somewhat for the finish.

Every other day is killer, but not if the Spurs win the games they have to. Tonight, they're coming off of three days rest, they need this one. Then game two becomes a throwaway game. Take care of business at home, game five becomes a throwaway game. Then go for the kill in game six. If they're able to follow that formula, only one time in back to back games in this series will they have to play their key players extended minutes.

[angelbelow]

I havent been watching much of the suns this season, so this is probably confidence from previous meetings - but I think were gonna sweep.

[DespЏrado]

For posterity sake and to be completely self serving I'm going to copy pasta my own preview in this thread.


The Suns seem to finally play on both sides of the floor, and that fact makes them more dangerous than they ever have been. Grant Hill sets the tone on the defensive side of the court for the Suns, playing the role of a more athletic Bruce Bowen while Jason Richardson, Steve Nash, and Amare Stoudemire guarantee a potent offense.

The Suns can rely on three point shooting from Dudley 45.8%, Frye 43.9%, Hill 43.8%, Nash 42.6%, Richardson 39.3%, and Dragic 39.4%. For the season they ranked a league high 41.2% on the long ball. The Suns have five players who average over ten points a game, a testament to Nash's superlative ball handling skills. Amare Stoudemire plays better against the Spurs than he does against any other team by about 4 pts for 32.7 pts.

All of that makes the Suns' challenge as formidable as any team in the league, and the Spurs still don't get the luxury of home court advantage.

That said the Spurs still have a huge mental advantage over the Suns. No Steve Nash lead team has ever beaten the Spurs in a playoff series. With the emergence of Hill, the Spurs have more fresh legs to absolutely remove Nash from being a factor in this series, and that is the first crucial step to beating the Suns. Remove Nash from the game, and his havoc style offense that can deliver points at will against any team will be neutralized. Remove Nash and you remove the Suns fast break.

Jason Richardson is absolutely a playoff stud, but he isn't a franchise player. Playing the Guard Forward position he is the barometer to the Suns offense. If he gets going the Suns are almost always going to win. Any player that can erupt for 42 points in the playoffs is someone that has to be neutralized. Manu, Jefferson, Hill, and Bogans will probably all get a crack at locking him up and the Spurs success hinges on how well they do. Stopping his break away points is the most crucial part when you play J.Rich. There is probably not a faster person down the court than Richardson. In one play against the Trailblazers he corralled a rebound and passed the ball out just so he could take off full speed down the court to receive the alley-oop he knew would be there. It was a play more reminiscent of a football player receiving a touchdown pass than basketball. If the Spurs let that happen more than once in a quarter; the Spurs will lose that game.

With Amare, no longer do the Spurs have to let him get his. The addition of Dice is going to play huge dividends again for the Spurs, if he can make Amare work for every point, the fans will again be singing Dice's praise. Not to mention the fact that Dice will be able to take advantage of Amare's inability to stay focused on defense.

The Spurs meanwhile have more x factors and more unknowns going into this series than ever before. Tim Duncan and Manu already appear to be fatiguing as the intensity they played with in games 1, 2, and 3 against Dallas has been dropping off alarmingly fast. They both played a "good enough" game to eek out the win against Dallas, but their reserves have never seemed more depleted than they have this playoff run. The Duncan and Manu of yesteryear would normally make this a guaranteed series win against a team that lacks so much in the interior defense department. At this point just seeing 20+ points out of either of them is a blessing.

Jefferson, Hill, Tony, Blair, and Dice are again going to have to carry the team for large stretches, especially if Tim and Manu aren't able to play at their former MVP levels, but given their play in the first round each has proven themselves to be more than capable.

Prediction: (attempts to channel a little timvp mojo) spurs in 5. Spurs win the first one in a tight game, the second one is a blow out loss as Amare or Richardson blows up for a huge game and the spurs lose track of the suns three point shooters. Spurs take games 3, 4, and 5 in their usual business like manor, managing to eek out the series finale in Phoenix.

[DespЏrado]

I wanted to add a little about Blair, I hope Pop knows to unleash him as long as possible to this series. I think this series could easily be as important for Blair as the Mavs series was for G.Hill. I don't necessarily believe Pop will trust Blair enough, but if he does, this is the series where we could ride the Beast to a couple of wins.

So a crucial key to victory I think is Pop trusting and playing Blair.

[ElNono]

Good writeup :tu

I hope RJ has more than one good game. His PMS from the Mavs series should be over now...

[Zammers]

I have to see this as Spurs in 6. I think if we play like we know we can...Spurs in 5. But the guys seem to need a let down in order to collect their energy......So Spurs in 6.
Game 1 is very important

[timvp]

Also timvp how well do you think George Hill will match up against the Suns this series? Brainstorming I came to the conclusion that we may be going from a team that is matchup heaven for him (Dallas) to a team he does not matchup well against at all.
Something Spurs fans don't like to admit is that Hill hasn't defended point guard's very well this season. Especially elite point guards who are quick. Hill is good at guarding swingman and slower point guards (like Kidd) but I'm unsure what to expect with Hill vs. Nash. Maybe is Nash is slow enough ... but I don't know.

If Hill can't defend Nash adequately, that changes a lot. We are going to learn a lot in Game 1.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Something Spurs fans don't like to admit is that Hill hasn't defended point guard's very well this season. Especially elite point guards who are quick. Hill is good at guarding swingman and slower point guards (like Kidd) but I'm unsure what to expect with Hill vs. Nash. Maybe is Nash is slow enough ... but I don't know.

If Hill can't defend Nash adequately, that changes a lot. We are going to learn a lot in Game 1.

I said in a thread last night Hill has trouble with
1) Very speedy guards, especially if they are smaller than him
2) extremely good dribbler-passers
I think Kidd was the exception to (2) just because he's lost so much of a step.

I don't want him on Nash and kept trying to brainstorm on the forum of just who the hell we have Hill guard. I don't see him guarding anyone well this series, and I worry about foul trouble.

I mean if he's playing SG and guarding a SG JRich is so big and strong...I see a mismatch there.

[polandprzem]

Jason richardson is an x=factor for the suns

I think we can handle their pick and rolls and 3pointers better then Jason

[polandprzem]

ahh yea and I think we will drop only g2

[HarlemHeat37]

I'm picking the Suns in 6, TBH..not basing it on the 1st quarter in this game, I just don't think the Spurs can match their depth and energy for an entire series..

[timtonymanu]

I'm picking the Suns in 6, TBH..not basing it on the 1st quarter in this game, I just don't think the Spurs can match their depth and energy for an entire series..

+1. Their bench is so much better than us. That's what hurts about having jokes like Mason Bogans and Bonner in a rotation.

Just like the Spurs were looking for revenge against the Mavs, the Suns have the same mentality with them.

Don't be surprised if the Suns finally beat us this year.

[urunobili]

if they Spurs win the series thing that I doubt they'll accomplish, it'll be in 6 but stealing game 2 in PHX not the first one...

[ducks]

frye is 45 % at home away 26%
bench players play better at home

[ducks]

frye is 45 % at home away 26%
bench players play better at home

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Hill is looking much worse defensively so far than he ever did against the Mavs.

[MannyIsGod]

Timvp said they'd work their way out of a deficit. Everything is going according to plan still!

:lol

[jiggy_55]

Unfortunately, the Spurs vs. Suns series is much more difficult to foresee.


You were right about that Timvp, but nothing else :(.

I felt like this Game 1 would have a similar feel to Game 1 against the Mavs, and it turned out that what I thought was correct. The defense wasn't good, Suns were hitting all their shots led by Nash, J-rich and Amare who all scored more than 20.

And I think Game 2 will have a similar feel as Game 2 of the Mavs series. The Spurs will make adjustments, RJ and Hill will pick up their play after their horrible showing in Game 1 and the Spurs should get back to their winning ways.

:flag:

[onarollbaby]

I see this series going the same route as the Spurs-Mavs series. The Spurs losing game 1 then win 3 straight then finishing the Suns at the AT&T in game 6. Spurs in 6