Random Thoughts Before Game 3 - Spurs vs. Suns 2010

[timvp]

-How will the Spurs react to their first true must-win game of the season? I think they will react well. If there are any notable chemistry flaws, 0-2 would bring the adversity to cause the chemistry issues to bubble to the surface. But I think the chemistry of this team is fine and they will come out with one of their most energetic games of the season ... though the Spurs will need more than energy to win tonight.

-A lot has been made since Game 2 about how Tim Duncan is supposedly a liability on defense. I call BS. No one, Duncan included, can defend the Nash/Stoudemire pick-and-roll. Pointing to his defense on the pick-and-roll as evidence of him being a liability is laughable. Duncan had trouble staying with Channing Frye off of down-screens ... but how many interior-oriented pivots could defend such plays? I can't think of one off the top of my head. Duncan also had Grant Hill score on him when isolated. Again, that is not a sign of Duncan being a defensive liability -- that's a sign of the Suns taking advantage of a mismatch. Hill is supposed to get good looks when isolated against Duncan. The fact that Duncan forced him into a pair of jumpers means he defended the plays well. While it's true Duncan can do a better job on defense, labeling him as a defensive liability is unfair. The plays that worked against Duncan in Game 2 would have been difficult for Duncan even back when he was a rookie.

-The fact that this game is at home is making me question what rotation adjustments Pop needs to make. I wanted Tony Parker to start Game 2 so the Spurs could get their road split but him starting Game 3 isn't as vital. One would expect George Hill to play much better at home so keeping him in the starting lineups makes sense on that level. Perhaps start Parker and bench Richard Jefferson?

-Continuing on the previous thought, doesn't Pop have to give Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. a look in the first half tonight? I know, I vomited even writing that sentence and I can't wait for those two players to be off the team for good but Pop's hand is pretty much forced right now. The Suns are too deep to get back into this series by the Spurs running their starters into the ground. Pop has to find at least a few productive minutes from players deeper in the rotation. Both players shot much, much better at home this season. If one of them can hit a few three-pointers, that would be huge. Is it worth the risk?

-Manu Ginobili needs one of those games where he plays with an ungodly amount of energy. His energy has been sporadic since early in the Mavs series. When he wants to be, Ginobili can be an elite rebounding guard. Against this swarming Suns team, Ginobili needs to concentrate more on the glass. On offense, he has to fight his way to the basket. Phoenix will live with him shooting threes. Every time he hoists one, you can almost hear their defense breathe a sigh of relief.

-The resiliency the Suns have shown in the first two games has been amazing. (They kinda remind me of the 2003 Spurs. Both teams were deep, both teams rely more on individual talent and energy more than cohesiveness, both teams have a mix of old veterans and excitable youth, and both teams bounce right back after blowing leads.) Tonight, if the Spurs use the home crowd to start strong or make a run at some point, they have to know that any size lead can evaporate against the Suns in a matter of minutes. If the Spurs let their guard down with a lead, like they did plenty of times against the Mavs, these Suns will blow you out. The Spurs need 48 minutes of concentration, especially defensively.

-In the first two games, the Spurs offense would get unnecessarily complicated. No disrespect to the Suns but the Spurs can get good looks every time up the court if they keep it simple. Depending on who the Suns have on the court, a clear-out for Parker or a pick-and-roll with Duncan leads to a good look almost every time. The Suns do a good job of switching up the matchups and confusing the Spurs but if San Antonio can remain patient and find the mismatch, these aren't exactly the 2004 Pistons the Spurs are playing against.

-It's true that the Suns role players don't shoot as well on the road but I wouldn't dare them. Stay dedicated to taking away three-pointers, get back on transition and force Nash to do the heavy lifting.

-If the Spurs can get the win tonight, I'd think the pressure shift back to Phoenix. They know they need a split here to really put the Spurs on their heels. Win this contest and then Game 4 will decide whether or not this is a long series.

[mytespurs]

Great analysis timvp! Spot on as always! :toast

All I know is.....Spurs need to win tonight!

[PDXSpursFan]

...start Parker and bench Richard Jefferson?...


I don't like the idea since Jefferson is coming from one of his best playoffs games.

What I would like Pop to do is dynamic adjustments. Start Hill, but if he has another slow start immediately substitute by Parker. When Bonner enters the game, if he misses his 1st 2 shots or defensive assignments he should go the bench and stay there for the rest of the game - don't wait until he goes 0-6. :bang

[MaNu4Tres]

-A lot has been made since Game 2 about how Tim Duncan is supposedly a liability on defense. I call BS. No one, Duncan included, can defend the Nash/Stoudemire pick-and-roll.

Duncan isn't a liability on defense. IMO Spurs would be better suited having Dice in the game guarding the pick and roll, leaving Duncan in a less vulnerable position playing weak side help defense. Which is the type of defense that has earned him All-Defensive honors every year.

Spurs defense in the first quarter against the Suns' pick and roll was the best I've ever seen it when Duncan's man was NOT setting the screen.

Dice guarding Amare in the pick and roll with Duncan on the weak side> Duncan guarding Amare in the pick and roll with Manu on the weak side.

Spurs have to pick their poison and I much rather give the Suns a slightly contested 25 footer than give Amare or Nash a clean look at point blank range.

[timvp]

I don't like the idea since Jefferson is coming from one of his best playoffs games.

Yeah, it would be odd to bench him right after his productive game. But then again, if you are going to start TP and Manu you need spacing. Hill spaces the court much better than RJ.

[timvp]

IMO Spurs would be better suited having Dice in the game guarding the pick and roll, leaving Duncan in a less vulnerable position playing weak side help defense.

The problem is that the Suns are putting lineups on the court that either force Duncan to defend Amare or spend his time chasing his man off of screens. While Collins is in the game, Duncan can get away defending Collins while McDyess guards Amare... but Collins is only a placeholder at the beginning of each half.

If the choices are Duncan defending Amare or chasing around Frye, Hill or Dudley ... I'd rather Duncan defend Amare.

Gotta give Gentry credit because it's a smart move. He's doing a good job of taking advantage of the Suns being smaller, quicker and younger in addition to having more bodies.

And, really, I can't fault Pop. He's gone with Duncan on Amare when confronted with that situation, which is what I would have done. When the Suns were using Frye to get Duncan out of the lane, I thought switching Duncan off onto Hill could be a solution since Hill's not really a three-point shooter. Pop did just that and Hill hit a pair of jumpers.

Basically, Gentry is making good moves and Pop is responding correctly. As a Spurs fan, I can't blame anyone. If the Suns are going to continue to work their gameplan to perfection, they are going to be next to impossible to beat. The Spurs have always relied on the Suns to partially dig their own grave. Right now, that's not happening.

[polandprzem]

Good defense on Duncan :tu

Mason Bonner - IMO it's not worth the risk to give mason some minutes but it depends on the score, if we are winning or not and by how much.
I would take the risk with Bonner though, simply because it's easier to set him up then setting up a shot for mason. And Matt can be streaky what can force Suns to watch him after he will make 2 or three in a row in 2 or three possessions.

Pick and rolls are spoiled :) manu and TP really had troubles to penetrate inside. Also not many isos were played as I remeber corectly.

[team-work]

-In the first two games, the Spurs offense would get unnecessarily complicated. No disrespect to the Suns but the Spurs can get good looks every time up the court if they keep it simple. Depending on who the Suns have on the court, a clear-out for Parker or a pick-and-roll with Duncan leads to a good look almost every time. The Suns do a good job of switching up the matchups and confusing the Spurs but if San Antonio can remain patient and find the mismatch, these aren't exactly the 2004 Pistons the Spurs are playing against.

Agreed most with this point. The Suns, while having improved on the defensive end compared with the D'antoni era, is far from a juggernaut on that side. Being down 0-2 is not reason for panic and doing things much differently what you're used to and good at. Let the championship experience of the Big 3 and Pop guide the team.

[Obstructed_View]

Why are so many Spurs fans drinking the "George Hill Must Start" Koolaid?

[MaNu4Tres]

The problem is that the Suns are putting lineups on the court that either force Duncan to defend Amare or spend his time chasing his man off of screens. While Collins is in the game, Duncan can get away defending Collins while McDyess guards Amare... but Collins is only a placeholder at the beginning of each half.

If the choices are Duncan defending Amare or chasing around Frye, Hill or Dudley ... I'd rather Duncan defend Amare.


And, really, I can't fault Pop. He's gone with Duncan on Amare when confronted with that situation, which is what I would have done. When the Suns were using Frye to get Duncan out of the lane, I thought switching Duncan off onto Hill could be a solution since Hill's not really a three-point shooter. Pop did just that and Hill hit a pair of jumpers.



I get what you're saying. But my point is that it seems the Suns are getting much more efficient looks when Duncan is defending Amare in the pick and roll when Spurs are going small to close out games.

I agree it's a tough situation for the Spurs to be in and Pop can't really be blamed all that much, but if McDyess guards Amare and Duncan is moved out to Hill (if Suns use Hill as the 4), I much rather put the ball in Grant Hill's hands for a semi-contested 15-19 foot jump shot instead of what transpires in the Nash/Amare pick when Spurs go small with Duncan guarding Amare.

And if Frye is in the game with Amare, I much rather have McDyess guarding Amare in the pick and roll and having Duncan on Frye playing weak/help side. I much rather Frye take a semi-contested 25 footer than Amare getting layups/dunks or getting to the line at will.

It's all about picking your poison.

I much rather take away the easy points/looks the Suns get in the lane when the Spurs go small with Duncan guarding Amare in the pick and roll.

[timvp]

I get what you're saying. But my point is that it seems the Suns are getting much more efficient looks when Duncan is defending Amare in the pick and roll when Spurs are going small to close out games.

I agree it's a tough situation for the Spurs to be in and Pop can't really be blamed all that much, but if McDyess guards Amare and Duncan is moved out to Hill (if Suns use Hill as the 4), I much rather put the ball in Grant Hill's hands for a semi-contested 15-19 foot jump shot instead of what transpires in the Nash/Amare pick when Spurs go small with Duncan guarding Amare.

And if Frye is in the game with Amare, I much rather have McDyess guarding Amare in the pick and roll and having Duncan on Frye playing weak/help side. I much rather Frye take a semi-contested 25 footer than Amare getting layups/dunks or getting to the line at will.

It's all about picking your poison.

I much rather take away the easy points/looks the Suns get in the lane when the Spurs go small with Duncan guarding Amare in the pick and roll.

Yeah, it's definitely a matter of picking your poison. I'd rather Duncan defend Amare than potentially getting worn out on the perimeter but I can see pros and cons each way.

Speaking of McDyess, I wonder if Pop will make the adjustment of giving him more minutes. McDyess eating Bonner's minutes wouldn't be a bad thing.

[dreamcastrocks]

-How will the Spurs react to their first true must-win game of the season? I think they will react well. If there are any notable chemistry flaws, 0-2 would bring the adversity to cause the chemistry issues to bubble to the surface. But I think the chemistry of this team is fine and they will come out with one of their most energetic games of the season ... though the Spurs will need more than energy to win tonight.



I think that the Spurs respond too. I don't necessarily agree that the chemistry is fine though. Parker is as vocal as I have ever seen him barking out things that other players have done wrong. Mason/Bonner are having 'wanna get away' moments, etc.



-A lot has been made since Game 2 about how Tim Duncan is supposedly a liability on defense. I call BS. No one, Duncan included, can defend the Nash/Stoudemire pick-and-roll. Pointing to his defense on the pick-and-roll as evidence of him being a liability is laughable. Duncan had trouble staying with Channing Frye off of down-screens ... but how many interior-oriented pivots could defend such plays? I can't think of one off the top of my head. Duncan also had Grant Hill score on him when isolated. Again, that is not a sign of Duncan being a defensive liability -- that's a sign of the Suns taking advantage of a mismatch. Hill is supposed to get good looks when isolated against Duncan. The fact that Duncan forced him into a pair of jumpers means he defended the plays well. While it's true Duncan can do a better job on defense, labeling him as a defensive liability is unfair. The plays that worked against Duncan in Game 2 would have been difficult for Duncan even back when he was a rookie.


Duncan is no longer super human on defense anymore. That's why you see articles as you have seen about Timmy's defense. That said, I don't think that Duncan 'forcing' Grant into a couple of jumpers means that he defended him well. Grant Hill got exactly what he wanted. A wide open jump shot with Duncan a few feet away from him. Duncan can do better on defense, but it is unfair for people to expect him to guard Grant Hill or Channing Frye. If he has to, the Spurs won't win this series.




-The fact that this game is at home is making me question what rotation adjustments Pop needs to make. I wanted Tony Parker to start Game 2 so the Spurs could get their road split but him starting Game 3 isn't as vital. One would expect George Hill to play much better at home so keeping him in the starting lineups makes sense on that level. Perhaps start Parker and bench Richard Jefferson?


If you bench RJ, you likely fracture his very fragile ego at this moment. If you want to shake up the starting lineup, send Manu to the bench and let him wreck shop against the Suns bench.




-Continuing on the previous thought, doesn't Pop have to give Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. a look in the first half tonight? I know, I vomited even writing that sentence and I can't wait for those two players to be off the team for good but Pop's hand is pretty much forced right now. The Suns are too deep to get back into this series by the Spurs running their starters into the ground. Pop has to find at least a few productive minutes from players deeper in the rotation. Both players shot much, much better at home this season. If one of them can hit a few three-pointers, that would be huge. Is it worth the risk?


Yep. The Spurs cannot win with a rotation of 6 players against the Suns, especially when the Suns are playing 10 players effectively. You guys have to find someone else show up to win other than the Tim, Tony, Manu, RJ, and George Hill. Players like Bonner, Mason and Blair better show up.



-Manu Ginobili needs one of those games where he plays with an ungodly amount of energy. His energy has been sporadic since early in the Mavs series. When he wants to be, Ginobili can be an elite rebounding guard. Against this swarming Suns team, Ginobili needs to concentrate more on the glass. On offense, he has to fight his way to the basket. Phoenix will live with him shooting threes. Every time he hoists one, you can almost hear their defense breathe a sigh of relief.


He needs to play like he did Game 1. Every aggressive and attack the Suns in transition.



-The resiliency the Suns have shown in the first two games has been amazing. (They kinda remind me of the 2003 Spurs. Both teams were deep, both teams rely more on individual talent and energy more than cohesiveness, both teams have a mix of old veterans and excitable youth, and both teams bounce right back after blowing leads.) Tonight, if the Spurs use the home crowd to start strong or make a run at some point, they have to know that any size lead can evaporate against the Suns in a matter of minutes. If the Spurs let their guard down with a lead, like they did plenty of times against the Mavs, these Suns will blow you out. The Spurs need 48 minutes of concentration, especially defensively.

Thanks for the compliment. This team does feel different than in the past. We'll see how different they are dealing with a team like the Spurs at home.



-In the first two games, the Spurs offense would get unnecessarily complicated. No disrespect to the Suns but the Spurs can get good looks every time up the court if they keep it simple. Depending on who the Suns have on the court, a clear-out for Parker or a pick-and-roll with Duncan leads to a good look almost every time. The Suns do a good job of switching up the matchups and confusing the Spurs but if San Antonio can remain patient and find the mismatch, these aren't exactly the 2004 Pistons the Spurs are playing against.

I don't know. The Suns P&R defense has been some of the best I have seen so far this year. Parker has been doing an ok job with it, but the Suns have really forced Manu to give up the ball on the P&R and that plays right into the Suns hands. So far the Parker/Duncan P&R has been ok to successful, and the opposite with Manu/Duncan or whomever else.

That said, the Spurs offense overall has been fine.



-It's true that the Suns role players don't shoot as well on the road but I wouldn't dare them. Stay dedicated to taking away three-pointers, get back on transition and force Nash to do the heavy lifting.

-If the Spurs can get the win tonight, I'd think the pressure shift back to Phoenix. They know they need a split here to really put the Spurs on their heels. Win this contest and then Game 4 will decide whether or not this is a long series.



I always thought it weird that Popovich was always willing to let Amare go off against the Suns and still win. It went against conventional logic, but it worked. It shouldn't have, and wouldn't have, if the Suns were tougher defensively back then. Here, the Suns live and die by the P&R and/or the role players. Teams usually try to take over one of the two. The times that Portland were able to play the Suns well is when they decided to defend the P&R and the other players didn't show. However, if you do that and Richardson catches fire, you're in trouble.

As a visitor, I love the insight that you bring to this board. Kudos to you.

[TampaDude]

My only thought on Game 3 is this: If the Suns win Game 3, the series is OVER.

[sa_butta]

Speaking of McDyess, I wonder if Pop will make the adjustment of giving him more minutes. McDyess eating Bonner's minutes wouldn't be a bad thing.
I would like to see more Mcdyess as well, I think he has been very good this series with his midrange jumper. I am much more comfortable with Mcdyess's midrange jumper rather than taking chances with Bonner launching open 3's.

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

The Suns are too deep to get back into this series by the Spurs running their starters into the ground.


Wow, I used to think the day I'd read this sentence would be when hell froze over.

[dreamcastrocks]

I would like to see more Mcdyess as well, I think he has been very good this series with his midrange jumper. I am much more comfortable with Mcdyess's midrange jumper rather than taking chances with Bonner launching open 3's.

Really? He's been ok. He missed two wide open jumpers early Game 1 and that killed his playing time for the game IMO. Game 2 he was much better though. Call it a wash.

[sa_butta]

Really? He's been ok. He missed two wide open jumpers early Game 1 and that killed his playing time for the game IMO. Game 2 he was much better though. Call it a wash.
Ill take my chances with Mcdyess rather than Bonner.

[MaNu4Tres]

Yeah, it's definitely a matter of picking your poison. I'd rather Duncan defend Amare than potentially getting worn out on the perimeter but I can see pros and cons each way.

Speaking of McDyess, I wonder if Pop will make the adjustment of giving him more minutes. McDyess eating Bonner's minutes wouldn't be a bad thing.

I would think Duncan would get more worn out hedging/recovering in the pick and roll every time down the floor on defense, rather than standing with one foot in the lane and one foot out watching McDyess hedging and recovering in the pick and roll. I could be wrong.


I agree though McDyess needs to have Bonner's minutes. I'm praying that's one adjustment Pop makes if he plans on employing small ball for a portion of the game.

[dreamcastrocks]

Ill take my chances with Mcdyess rather than Bonner.

Can't disagree with that point though.

[EricB]

One simple adjustment is to tell Richard Jefferson to stand at the corner and hill on the sideline and keep rj behind the line. Scream at him if u have to.

[MannyIsGod]

I'll take Grant Hill shooting 2s over Tim Duncan's outstretched hand all fucking night. Saying he's a liability on defense is so ridiculous.

[timvp]

I don't necessarily agree that the chemistry is fine though. Parker is as vocal as I have ever seen him barking out things that other players have done wrong.When any member of the Big 3 is vocal, that's a good thing. If anything, this team doesn't have enough vocal leadership.


One simple adjustment is to tell Richard Jefferson to stand at the corner and hill on the sideline and keep rj behind the line. Scream at him if u have to.Yeah, I have no idea why RJ has decided to kill the team's spacing. I'd almost rather have him miss open corner three-pointers than make a long two-pointer. Those two-pointers are pretty much worthless because the Spurs can get better shots from others, while the Suns have to actually worry about him hitting a few from beyond the arc could create spacing on each possession.

RJ has been cold from distance in recent months but he's been able to knock down threes at a respectable rate for years. To totally lose confidence in his three-point shot is a storyline that isn't getting enough attention.


I'll take Grant Hill shooting 2s over Tim Duncan's outstretched hand all fucking night.

Yeah, I thought those plays were good D by Duncan. Hill can hit that shot but it's better he attempt that jumper than get to the rim or create an open look on a three for someone else.

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

Yeah I agree Duncan hasn't been the liability for you guys on D, the huge liability for the Spurs' D has been at SF and C (or PF if you wanna consider Duncan a C). I'm not trying to stir anything up since we all know who used to play SF for you guys and everyone knows how disappointing Jefferson has been defensively, but he has virtually no responsibilities on offense other than finishing the shots others created. It should be him bolting back on defense to stop the fast break, and it should be him guarding J-Rich or Nash. Again, not trying to rub this in, but Bowen would be turning J-Rich into a ghost. The whole thing just seems weird, I was sure when the Spurs traded for Jefferson he'd go back to being the hard nosed defensive player he was when he was younger.

[Ax3l]

really nice analysis
go spurs go!
in the big three we trust

[scottspurs]

--Continuing on the previous thought, doesn't Pop have to give Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. a look in the first half tonight?

Maybe they can get away with it tonight, but if the spurs are going to win a road game in this series they need one of those guys to spread the floor. Either that or Manu needs to find his shot and get hot from three.

[dreamcastrocks]

When any member of the Big 3 is vocal, that's a good thing. If anything, this team doesn't have enough vocal leadership.




For the most part, I'd agree. But with players that have their confidence shaken, it might not be the best thing.

[Gooshie]

Yeah, it's definitely a matter of picking your poison. I'd rather Duncan defend Amare than potentially getting worn out on the perimeter but I can see pros and cons each way.

Speaking of McDyess, I wonder if Pop will make the adjustment of giving him more minutes. McDyess eating Bonner's minutes wouldn't be a bad thing.


I agree Dyess should be getting more minutes at the expense of Bonner. The problem is, if Dyess continues to start next to Duncan (I don't see why he wouldn't), what should we do for our first 4/5 substitutions at the beginning of each half?

Usually, Pop has been subbing Bonner for Dyess in the 1st quarter, and then bringing in Blair for Duncan either late in the 1st or to begin the 2nd. The same applies for the 2nd half.

If Dyess is truly going to eat Bonner's minutes, then there are 2 solutions:
1. Substitute Dyess for a "small" and go small ball for a while until Duncan needs his rest, and then bring in Blair AND Dyess.

OR

2. Just bring Blair directly in for Dyess. Then, when Duncan needs a rest, bring Dyess back in for him, thereby shutting Bonner out of the rotation altogether. This would also increase Blair's minutes. I'm not sure they will choose this route, because this would put Blair and Duncan on the court together for a while; and, besides the obvious of killing the spacing on offense, either Blair or Duncan would have to chase Frye out the the 3 point line while the other would be dealing with Amare down low.

Personally, I wouldn't mind Pop trying the latter. Duncan and Blair have plenty of experience playing together back when Blair was a starter (although not too much recently), and this would alleviate some of the defensive rebounding problems.

I would put Duncan on Amare (as long as TD isn't in foul trouble) and have Blair chase Frye out to the 3 point line. It may or may not work out, but at this point, if Pop decides to completely give up on Bonner, I think it's worth a shot.

[quentin_compson]

I don't know about starting Hill, Manu, and Tony. Benching RJ after a good game (he put up good stats at least, though he wasn't very good defensively) might make him revert to his passive ways - and then, who is going to score on our second unit?

[timvp]

I agree Dyess should be getting more minutes at the expense of Bonner. The problem is, if Dyess continues to start next to Duncan (I don't see why he wouldn't), what should we do for our first 4/5 substitutions at the beginning of each half?

Usually, Pop has been subbing Bonner for Dyess in the 1st quarter, and then bringing in Blair for Duncan either late in the 1st or to begin the 2nd. The same applies for the 2nd half.

If Dyess is truly going to eat Bonner's minutes, then there are 2 solutions:
1. Substitute Dyess for a "small" and go small ball for a while until Duncan needs his rest, and then bring in Blair AND Dyess.

OR

2. Just bring Blair directly in for Dyess. Then, when Duncan needs a rest, bring Dyess back in for him, thereby shutting Bonner out of the rotation altogether. This would also increase Blair's minutes. I'm not sure they will choose this route, because this would put Blair and Duncan on the court together for a while; and, besides the obvious of killing the spacing on offense, either Blair or Duncan would have to chase Frye out the the 3 point line while the other would be dealing with Amare down low.

Personally, I wouldn't mind Pop trying the latter. Duncan and Blair have plenty of experience playing together back when Blair was a starter (although not too much recently), and this would alleviate some of the defensive rebounding problems.

I would put Duncan on Amare (as long as TD isn't in foul trouble) and have Blair chase Frye out to the 3 point line. It may or may not work out, but at this point, if Pop decides to completely give up on Bonner, I think it's worth a shot.

Very good points. You outlined a major decision Pop has to make. Cutting Bonner out of the rotation is much harder said than done.

[Gooshie]

Very good points. You outlined a major decision Pop has to make. Cutting Bonner out of the rotation is much harder said than done.

Which of the two options would you choose, Timvp? Small ball or Duncan/Blair playing together?

[MannyIsGod]

I honestly don't see why putting Blair on Frye outside woudln't work. Or even Tim. How fucking hard is it not to leave a guy on defense and have trust that your teammates don't need your help off that one man?

Its not like a spot up shooter is going to give you a plethora of moves to break you down then shoot.

[MannyIsGod]

That being said I'd probably go with a small ball lineup and have RJ or Hill guard Frye if at all possible. Bringing Bogans in makes me want to puke but it probably makes the most sense. If you put Blair out on the 3 point line you miss his best attribute which is his rebounding.

[Gooshie]

I honestly don't see why putting Blair on Frye outside woudln't work. Or even Tim. How fucking hard is it not to leave a guy on defense and have trust that your teammates don't need your help off that one man?

Its not like a spot up shooter is going to give you a plethora of moves to break you down then shoot.

I agree, that's why I wouldn't mind seeing Duncan/Blair together for stretches. Blair is more nimble than Duncan is these days, so I would assign him to Frye and hope that he can somehow also crash the defensive boards.

He would need to be extremely careful on the offensive boards though, because if he doesn't come up with it, you can bet Frye will be running back looking for the open transition 3.

[Gooshie]

That being said I'd probably go with a small ball lineup and have RJ or Hill guard Frye if at all possible. Bringing Bogans in makes me want to puke but it probably makes the most sense. If you put Blair out on the 3 point line you miss his best attribute which is his rebounding.

Good point. The way I'm looking at it though, is our +/- stats show we are losing the small ball war, so why not try something different?

[MannyIsGod]

The most frustrating aspect of the loss the other night was how many points Frye got. Those points off wide open 3s are either repeated mental lapses or some very bad coaching. I'm not sure which it was, but they were just so bad that I simply don't understand how they happened.

[timvp]

Which of the two options would you choose, Timvp? Small ball or Duncan/Blair playing together?

I'd go with Duncan/Blair first to see how that holds up. If the Suns exploit it, going with small ball is a doable fallback option.

[MannyIsGod]

Good point. The way I'm looking at it though, is our +/- stats show we are losing the small ball war, so why not try something different?

You can definitely make the argument that we lost it due to poor defensive rebounding in the 2nd game which is an argument for more Blair.

I would recommend trying a zone at times in order to stop the 3s but I really think that Nash would pick it apart and the main problem with a zone is the lack of rebounding so I'm not sure that is a workable option.

I don't know how you both solve the rebounding problem and the 3 point matchup issues without simply getting better play out of your swingmen.

[MaNu4Tres]

our +/- stats show we are losing the small ball war, so why not try something different?

Part of that is how vulnerable our defense is when Duncan is guarding Amare in the Nash/Amare pick and roll. Their offense becomes virtually unstoppable when small ball is employed during this situation.

In order for us to start getting wins, Spurs need to start making some stops in the latter end of the 4th quarter. Both games we went small and Suns virtually scored every possession and the possessions they didn't score was when Nash and Richardson blew 2 wide open layups.

[boutons_deux]

I wonder if Tony felt he could be vocal because he was hitting his jumpers.

A true leader leads even when he's having an off shooting game, because every serious player knows even the best shooters get cold.

[Gooshie]

You can definitely make the argument that we lost it due to poor defensive rebounding in the 2nd game which is an argument for more Blair.

I would recommend trying a zone at times in order to stop the 3s but I really think that Nash would pick it apart and the main problem with a zone is the lack of rebounding so I'm not sure that is a workable option.

I don't know how you both solve the rebounding problem and the 3 point matchup issues without simply getting better play out of your swingmen.

Agreed. It is a frustrating dilemma. Bottom line is our swings have to rebound the ball better on the defensive end - particularly Manu, Hill, Bogans (if he plays), and RJ (even though he had 10 boards last game, he got beat for a few critical offensive rebounds).

Of course, Frye regressing back to his poor 3 point shooting on the road would help tremendously! But we can't count on that.

[dreamcastrocks]

I would recommend trying a zone at times in order to stop the 3s but I really think that Nash would pick it apart and the main problem with a zone is the lack of rebounding so I'm not sure that is a workable option.

Umm.. no. The zone is designed to force teams to shoot from the outside, not prevent it. Players are usually out of position in the zone. Once the ball makes it past the perimeter of the zone, the entire thing collapses. Passing the ball out leads to a wide open 3. Let alone when you have a player like Nash that can penetrate the zone perimeter. The Suns might surprised by the zone for a couple of possessions, but you don't play zone to stop the 3, quite the opposite.




I don't know how you both solve the rebounding problem and the 3 point matchup issues without simply getting better play out of your swingmen.

Talking about the zone more, with 3 or 4 players out on the perimeter, it makes defensive rebounding that much tougher. You absolutely right about the swingmen. The Suns are winning the rebounding battle at the SG and SF positions.

[sonic21]

I wonder if Tony felt he could be vocal because he was hitting his jumpers.

A true leader leads even when he's having an off shooting game, because every serious player knows even the best shooters get cold.

what's your point exactly?

[DAF86]

I agree with giving Bonner and Mason a couple of shots each to see how they do, the other things I would like to see is McDyess playing more minutes and Parker starting.

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

I honestly don't see why putting Blair on Frye outside woudln't work. Or even Tim. How fucking hard is it not to leave a guy on defense and have trust that your teammates don't need your help off that one man?


It's hard in this case because the Nash-Amare pick and roll is a play that can only be defended well if the big who is not guarding Amare can rotate over and clog up the strong side of the court. There's no way that play will be stopped if the big who's not defending Amare is out there on Frye, that leads to shit like when Ginobili has to rotate over and give up an and 1 trying to take a charge.

[DAF86]

If Hill and Frye are on the court at the same time for the Suns I would put our SF on Frye and the big that isn't guarding Amare on Grant. Hill isn't a 3 point threat.

[MaNu4Tres]

It's hard in this case because the Nash-Amare pick and roll is a play that can only be defended well if the big who is not guarding Amare can rotate over and clog up the strong side of the court.

That is why I've been advocating all morning that Spurs can't afford going small in the latter end of the 4th quarter because Duncan is being used to guard Amare in the pick and roll.

Spurs need to make this adjustment by playing McDyess on Amare in this situation if they want to be able to get more stops in the 4th quarter. Let Duncan play help defense guarding Hill.



If Hill and Frye are on the court at the same time for the Suns I would put our SF on Frye and the big that isn't guarding Amare on Grant. Hill isn't a 3 point threat.

I agree. McDyess should be guarding Amare and Duncan should be guarding Hill. What I mean by guarding Hill is playing his drive (giving Hill decent space so Duncan isn't beat by Hill going off the dribble. Make Hill take a semi-contested 15-19 footer if he gets the ball on an isolation play.)

If Suns still go to the pick and roll Duncan can play closer to the basket guarding Hill instead of guarding Frye.

[Thompson]

Blair seemed to play pretty well against Amare from what I remember; he had two steals on ball denial and one from when Amare tried to drive past him and he knocked it away to Manu.

[dreamcastrocks]

Blair seemed to play pretty well against Amare from what I remember; he had two steals on ball denial and one from when Amare tried to drive past him and he knocked it away to Manu.

I agree. I thought all along that he could really be a difference maker in this series. Blair and not George Hill is the X-factor IMO.

[objective]

-Continuing on the previous thought, doesn't Pop have to give Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. a look in the first half tonight? I know, I vomited even writing that sentence and I can't wait for those two players to be off the team for good but Pop's hand is pretty much forced right now. The Suns are too deep to get back into this series by the Spurs running their starters into the ground. Pop has to find at least a few productive minutes from players deeper in the rotation. Both players shot much, much better at home this season. If one of them can hit a few three-pointers, that would be huge. Is it worth the risk?


Is it worth it?

No.

NO.

This is pretty much madness. Every pre-game thread timvp and everyone else is handwringing and mentioning how bad Bonner and Mason are, but always end up wanting them to play and that that game is the one where they'll hit shots. First it was Manu's fault last year for not being there to get Bonner open shots and forcing Mason to handle the ball, then it was just a Mavs thing, then it's just a road game thing. On and on and on. And every single pre-game thread of the playoffs there's been me or someone else who sees Bonner and Mason for what they are pointing out what choking disasters these guys are.

And the result has been the same all playoffs long with those guys.

If Pop plays Bonner or Mason the Spurs deserve to lose.

Now several things.

I expect the Spurs to pull off a win like they did last year. The real Spurs like Parker or Duncan will go off while the Suns relax and end up quitting early to get ready for the next game. After the Spurs have a double digit lead at home I'm sure Bonner will pile on like he did last year and finally score some baskets. Thereby giving everyone nothing but fool's gold before continuing his garbage. That's how it is. But Bonner doing his pile-on routine doesn't mean he can play. And if the Spurs win the series, which I still think they can, it will be because of the real Spurs stepping up like Manu and Parker and TD and them carrying the deadweight across the finish line with them.

Furthermore, people look at Bonner's numbers are being deceived by how good they look. Besides the usual Plus/Minus suckers, you have to break down Bonner's stats by half to see how bad he really is.

If I read the play-by-plays right, in the 2nd half of playoff games this year Bonner is shooting terribly (27%fg and 17%-3pt), but that's including his hot game against the Mavs in game 1. In the second halves of the 7 games since game 1 of the Mavs, Bonner is shooting 14% from the field and 0% from three, that's ZERO on 0/5. Maybe I missed some FG attempts reading the PBPs on nba.com, but those are the numbers I found.

So now how unclutch does Bonner look? This is ridiculous. There's 7 straight games now where I don't know if any Spur has had worse 2nd halves ever, other than Mason. Was Hedo even that bad? Or Steve Smith? And I bet if you had PBPs from the 09 playoffs against the Mavs, the numbers wouldn't improve that much.

So what about the Spurs depth problems? Anybody but Bonner and Mason is preferable. If that means a 3 man big spot of TD-Dice-Blair, fine. If that means more Temple or Hairston, fine. If that means Bogans at smallball 4, as distasteful as that sounds, it's better than playing Bonner. And yes, giving Ian some spot minutes in a first half is a much better alternative than Bonner.

Bonner and Mason aren't the solution to the Spurs depth problems, they are the Spurs depth problems.

[Fabbs]

Guard Richardson on the three point line.
Sick of seeing him get uncontested/late contested treys.

Do not foul him. Doug Collins miraculously made a good point. Richardson was sucking on shots up til nearly halftime of Gm 2. Manu fouled him after the shot when they did the little hand kiss after the ball was released. A ticky tack foul? Yes, but technically a foul. Richardson got three foul shots and it kind of got him out of his shooting funk and going again.
Dont foul or give uncontested threes to the dumbass.

Stop telling me our playoff win chances hinge in part on Matt Bonner.

[SirChaz]

If they start Hill and Parker either Richardson or Hill will punish them in the post.

If I was the Spurs I would start my best players even if I have to sub them out early so I can have at least 2 starters in with the bench. Minus any foul trouble I would probably bring out Parker and/or Duncan first then give Manu a rest when they come back. In the second half I would give Manu a little longer rest so he is ready for the fourth quarter.

Starters:
Parker
Ginobili
Jefferson
Duncan
McDyess

[The Truth #6]

More Blair and Dice, less Bonner unless we're somehow blowing them out. Give Ian a chance if we need someone to chase Frye or if Dudley is killing on the glass. Bogans is the best of our worst at this point, so he could be tolerable for a few 3-4 minute stretches, though I think Temple has about the same chance for success/failure, depending on the match up.

Hopefully Hill will improve each game, just like last series. (Those Big 4 articles look really silly at this point, but he's still getting used to playoff basketball.)

We need to continue to attack with Tim in the post. That could tire out Tim early, but if he's out there he needs to dominate on offense, and if he needs more rest this game because of it, then we'll have to take that chance.

[GrandeDavid]

This is one of my favorite playoff games in recent memory. So much at stake plus the fact that our four matchup playoff win streak against Phoenix is in jeopardy tonight. Should be a fun game!

[xapatan2]

So few people questionning the Parker thing is beyond my understanding :depressed

Nash must drinking beers thinking about being left so easily in his confort zone :downspin:

The force of a team in sports is to impose his strenghs and will, we just don't do that.

Believe

X

[Blackjack]

Suns Spurs Analysis thru 2 (http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=724)
Wayne Winston

Still have 350 exams to grade, but here is the essence of Spurs Suns series so far. As we predicted, Dudley and Frye have been the keys.


With Nash in with Frye and or Dudley Suns are +32 points in 52 minutes, playing 32 points (after adjusting for opponent ability) better than average. In 37 of those minutes George Hill was on court and Spurs were down 31 points.


Rest of time Suns are -15 points playing 11 points worse than average.


For Spurs, George Hill has hurt them.


Hill in 64 minutes Spurs are -34 points, playing 15 points worse than average.


Hill out 32 minutes Spurs are +17 points playing 36 points better thn average.


So what to do? I have to grade some more, but either figure out what Hill is doing wrong, play him less or surely play him less when Dudleyand/or Frye are in hitting those 3’s!

[Blackjack]

George really doesn't have a favorable matchup for the Spurs that would allow him to play enough minutes to have the effect you'd hope. So, what does that mean?

Indy has to start making himself the mismatch he's capable of being offensively and play smarter and more sound defense on the other -- they're not going to pull this thing out if this trend continues, they don't have the depth to lose what has been the presence of their fourth best player.

[silverblk mystix]

I would like to see a couple of wrinkles added---just to throw the suns off a little...

#1) throw in a zone D --every once in a while to throw off that P & R

#2)spurs players---show some freaking emotion...I just did NOT see any emotion from anyone---yes I saw the big three and RJ show some determination and some intensity---but I did NOT sense that their hearts were into the game---almost like they were TOO controlled---TOO subdued... I would hope that the home crowd gets their adrenaline pumping and they go from being determined---to being pumped---to getting their SWAGGER back and get their BALLS back...

[tdunk21]

ball rotation....hit open shots....make free throws....transition defense.....rebound better....

[Slippy]

As much as i love Blair's game he was one of the reasons the spurs were giving up offensive boards in the second quarter of game 2. Grabbing the rebound with one hand and not concentrating on boxing is too complacent for my liking. The guards have to help out too.

Not sure i'd want Blair guarding Frye on on the perimeter either.

[TD 21]

-Continuing on the previous thought, doesn't Pop have to give Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. a look in the first half tonight? I know, I vomited even writing that sentence and I can't wait for those two players to be off the team for good but Pop's hand is pretty much forced right now. The Suns are too deep to get back into this series by the Spurs running their starters into the ground. Pop has to find at least a few productive minutes from players deeper in the rotation. Both players shot much, much better at home this season. If one of them can hit a few three-pointers, that would be huge. Is it worth the risk?

-Tonight, if the Spurs use the home crowd to start strong or make a run at some point, they have to know that any size lead can evaporate against the Suns in a matter of minutes. If the Spurs let their guard down with a lead, like they did plenty of times against the Mavs, these Suns will blow you out. The Spurs need 48 minutes of concentration, especially defensively.

-It's true that the Suns role players don't shoot as well on the road but I wouldn't dare them. Stay dedicated to taking away three-pointers, get back on transition and force Nash to do the heavy lifting.

-If the Spurs can get the win tonight, I'd think the pressure shift back to Phoenix. They know they need a split here to really put the Spurs on their heels. Win this contest and then Game 4 will decide whether or not this is a long series.

No, he doesn't have to give either a look, nor should he unless the game turns into a blowout. Maybe the Spurs can't run their starters into the ground in every game to win the series, but they can tonight and in game four. The season is on the line tonight and if they win tonight, again on Sunday. It all comes down to this weekend and you want to chance throwing away months and months of hard work and preparation to squeeze an extra few minutes out of two scrubs who have had more than enough chances? I don't get it.

I'd play eight guys, play everyone in the top six without minute restrictions (within' reason, obviously, I'm not saying play someone 48 minutes) and try to even this series up. If and when that get's accomplished, then take a shot early in game five (similar to the Mavs series) and if it's obvious that it's not going to be a win, pull the plug early and save the top players legs for game six. Then after a two day break, takes your chances at winning one on the road in game seven.

I agree with your second and third points. The Spurs aren't going to win this game just because they're back home. This Suns team is too dangerous, too deep and too determined for that. They're not going to let up because of the past history between the two teams. And with their explosive offense, any lull, no matter how long or short, could easily be costly.

Disagree with your fourth point. The pressure would still be on the Spurs, who were/are expected by many to win this series or at least make it a long series. To go out meekly in five, I don't know if anyone predicted that. Whatever happened to a series doesn't start until a home team loses? All of a sudden, that mentality is out the window. However, if the Spurs were to win game four (in addition to game three), then all of the pressure shifts to the Suns.

[word]

Parker and Ginobili driving the lane. Find Hill for the three. Offensive rebounds. jefferson shows up, mug Amare, get back on D.


Win !!

Oh and nooo Bonner unless he gets 3 per 3 minutes. Same with Mason. If they can't get going with the shooting, get 'em out. Defensive liability is too much for those guys not to be scoring. Blair fucks Amare up...foul HARD.

[Zammers]

My analysis would be:

Not necessary to start Parker....keep the lineup the same and get George Hill going in this series. We can always rely on the Big 3, but we aren't going to win this series without someone else stepping up. Bring Parker back into the lineup in Game 5 back in Phoenix to shock the system.

Dejuan Blair needs to play like an All-American. Stop overplaying and just get PHYSICAL. That is all we need him to be.

Bonner needs to start knocking down some open 3's like he did in the Mavs series and pester the Suns Bigs down low.

Dice needs to stretch the D with his outside jumper. Once the inside opens up we feast.

Spacing on defense needs to get better. Nash won't have these legs the whole series so we need to take it to him and make him work both ends of the floor. If Nash is not in rhythm neither are the Suns.

[MaNu4Tres]

Defense has won us 4 championships. Remember that.

Pop needs to make adjustments that enhances the Spurs ability to make stops.

Limit Small ball, super-glue Bonner and Mason to the end of the bench, Crash the defensive boards, give McDyess all of Bonner's minutes from last game.

Let's Go!

[TD 21]

It is necessary to start Parker, because off the bench minutes are limited. The Spurs need 40 minutes from Parker; not 36. Off the bench, it's tough to play a player more than 36 minutes. He sits the first five of each half generally, which is ten right there. Throw in the inevitable one-two minute break after his initial rotation and he ends up with mid-thirties minutes.

[word]

I'm gonna say this and it's probably 'controversial'....but one thing I noticed is when Parker has the ball, he can be pretty stingy going to Hill. Parker has to lay his pride down and get the ball to Hill for the three when he can.

Rip into me...

[xtremesteven33]

The Big 3 are playing well enough to win a series for sure...

They really miss their old role players though (Bowen,Horry,Barry)

[Capt Bringdown]

-If the Spurs can get the win tonight, I'd think the pressure shift back to Phoenix. They know they need a split here to really put the Spurs on their heels. Win this contest and then Game 4 will decide whether or not this is a long series.

Spurs need to win 4 of 5. I'd say the pressure is entirely in our camp, even if we get the win tonight. There's very little evidence we can get a win in their building.

[DAF86]

Whatever happened to the "stay home with the shooters" rule, the Suns have had more wide open threes in these past two games than in the previous 4 Spurs/Suns playoffs series combined.

[Obstructed_View]

Whatever happened to the "stay home with the shooters" rule, the Suns have had more wide open threes in these past two games than in the previous 4 Spurs/Suns playoffs series combined.

Stay home with the shooters doesn't work when you can't force dribblers baseline AND you don't have competent shot blocking inside. Those breakdowns require others to help and inevitably leaves shooters open.

[polandprzem]

pop will go with 3-2 zone or 1-2-2 zone

:D

[quentin_compson]

Defense has won us 4 championships. Remember that.


True, but it was more than that. Right now, guys who can step up and hit a three would be greatly appreciated, and the Spurs used to have that kind of players.

I expect George and even Matt to play better tonight. Hopefully, they won't prove me wrong.