Spurs have a 62.6% chance of winning Game 3

[Jeremy]

...but only a 5.6% chance of winning the series.

http://www.whowins.com/tables/up20.html

[MaNu4Tres]

If any team can come back being down 0-2, its a team lead by Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili.

The series will be tied by Monday.

Book it.

[Xylus]

I don't expect the Suns to win tonight.

[Jeremy]

As Gambo is saying right now on KTAR, if the Suns win this game tonight, they are a championship-caliber team.

[sananspursfan21]

If any team can come back being down 0-2, its a team lead by Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili.

The series will be tied by Monday.

Book it.


confident, yes? hope you're right.

78.26547887656875% chance of winning tonight
55% chance of winning the series

:lobt::lobt::lobt::lobt::lobt2:

[FromWayDowntown]

In the Conference Semifinal round of the NBA playoffs, teams with HCA that go up 2-0 actually win the series 96.6% of the time; that means the Spurs have only a 3.4% chance to win the series.

[GrandeDavid]

But what is the percentage when the first two losses are road losses. The stat improves greatly, I'm sure.

[MannyIsGod]

Uh, thats exactly the state FWDT just gave.

[FromWayDowntown]

NBA Qtrs all 38-58 (.396) 91-5 (.948)
NBA Qtrs H 32-55 (.368) 84-3 (.966)
NBA Qtrs V 6-3 (.667) 7-2 (.778)

The bolded numbers are for teams that are in the Suns' position tonight. A team with HCA being up 2-0 in Conference Semifinals.

The first column is the Game 3 record of teams in the Suns' position; the second column is the overall series record for those teams is the Suns

[FromWayDowntown]

As Gambo is saying right now on KTAR, if the Suns win this game tonight, they are a championship-caliber team.

Unless, of course, it turns out that the Spurs aren't actually that good.

:)

[dreamcastrocks]

As Gambo is saying right now on KTAR, if the Suns win this game tonight, they are a championship-caliber team.

Don't listen to Gambo. He is a tool. The Suns have been a championship caliber team since the playoffs started.

[dreamcastrocks]

Unless, of course, it turns out that the Spurs aren't actually that good.

:)

The Spurs are championship caliber until their big three gets broken up, either by retirement or injury.

[Blackjack]

http://letterstorob.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/a_chance-jpeg.jpg

So ... you're saying there's a chance (and I tend to agree with 'Tres :D)!

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

As Gambo is saying right now on KTAR, if the Suns win this game tonight, they are a championship-caliber team.


That's really a nonsensical thing for him to say. Yeah it'll be great if they can get the monkey off their back and it's a successful season regardless, but beating a 7 seed with an aging core that barely won 50 games doesn't lead to contender, whether they win in a sweep or in 7 games. There are 3 contenders: LA, Cleveland and Orlando, with Boston as a dark horse. Phoenix is not currently equipped to beat any of those 4 teams in a 7 game series. Everyone with the mindset that being able to skullfuck Smush Parker and Kwame Brown has anything to do with what Phoenix will face in the WCF needs to realize this isn't 2007 anymore.

[FromWayDowntown]

The Spurs are championship caliber until their big three gets broken up, either by retirement or injury.

I'm not sure that's true to anyone other than Suns fans and some Spurs fans.

I've watched the Spurs all year after years of watching the Spurs title teams; there's nothing about this team that makes me think it's remotely capable of winning a title -- I'm shocked that the team managed to win 50 games and a first round series.

With that said, it might be true that if the Suns put away the Spurs quickly and get themselves situated for the conference finals, they'd be doing exactly what a championship caliber team should do against inferior opponents.

[Blackjack]

I'm not sure that's true to anyone other than Suns fans and some Spurs fans.

I've watched the Spurs all year after years of watching the Spurs title teams; there's nothing about this team that makes me think it's remotely capable of winning a title -- I'm shocked that the team managed to win 50 games and a first round series.

With that said, it might be true that if the Suns put away the Spurs quickly and get themselves situated for the conference finals, they'd be doing exactly what a championship caliber team should do against inferior opponents.

Judging by your recent comments, we're definitely on the same page. The Spurs winning a championship this year would be more of an indictment on the competition or an incomprehensible bout of good fortune that fell into the lap of the Spurs (i.e.: debilitating injuries to star players; some suspensions to key players for wardrobe malfunctions; deportation and/or jail time to key players; and maybe a Tim Donaghy or two with a passion for all things San Antonio).

I respect the team this Suns team has become and the strides they've made in key departments that I believe make a champion; things they haven't possessed when they were supposedly robbed of success. But the only way to prove their championship-caliber would be to finish this thing and win the next two rounds -- if they finish this in 4 or 5 they deserve to be taken seriously, though.

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

They deserve to be taken seriously for sure, but as you said, there's an indictment on the competition. Heck, the 2007 Cavs made the finals, but I don't think very many people thought they were a championship team. There were 3 legit contenders in 2007 (Phoenix, Dallas, SA) all in the same conference, and that opened up the door for a non-contender to limp out of the other conference.

[mr_flex]

I don't expect the Suns to win tonight.

Have to agree...I'd be genuinely surprised if the Suns pull off a win tonight. That being said, I think they'll take game 4.

[Dex]

Eh, these kind of statistics are fickle.

Despite whether the Spurs won or lost tonight, there'd be a whole new set of data with a whole new list of percentages tomorrow.

[TampaDude]

I think the Spurs win big tonight...15-20 point win...dunno about Game 4, though.

[maraknight]

There is chance, so why not believe?

[PDXSpursFan]

My predictions:

Today: Spurs complete destroy Suns by 20+ points
Game 4: Spurs win close game by 4 pts
Game 5: Suns win by ~10 pts
Game 7: Spurs win by 7

[TampaDude]

My predictions:

Today: Spurs complete destroy Suns by 20+ points
Game 4: Spurs win close game by 4 pts
Game 5: Suns win by ~10 pts
Game 7: Spurs win by 7

What about Game 6???

[GrandeDavid]

Uh, thats exactly the state FWDT just gave.

MannyIs, you are so kind for pointing that out to me. Your effort in bringing FWDT's post to my attention was such a gentlemanly gesture and I'm sorry that my lack of attention contributed to wear and tear on your keyboard. OK, just messing around.

Throw stats out the window this series, although that is a daunting percentage.

[noles1983]

My predictions:

Today: Spurs complete destroy Suns by 20+ points
Game 4: Spurs win close game by 4 pts
Game 5: Suns win by ~10 pts
Game 7: Spurs win by 7

http://www.failpix.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/fail.png

[rascal]

If any team can come back being down 0-2, its a team lead by Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili.

The series will be tied by Monday.

Book it.

Booked

[rascal]

But what is the percentage when the first two losses are road losses. The stat improves greatly, I'm sure.

[vander]

wow 5.6%?

based on what?

all I know is that 0.0% of teams have ever come back from 0-3, and the Spurs don't even look like one that might be an anomaly. we had no excuse for losing those 3 games, we were out-played...