Spurs losing it in the 4th quarter

[flame]

Watching the past two games I have noticed two things about the Spurs: the defense seems to lighten up and the offensive aggressiveness seems to fade away in the 4th quarter. I decided to go to one of my old favorite statistics in basketball: Game Flow.

Quick links (just hit the Game Flow radio button to see it)
Game 1: http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=300503021
Game 2: http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=300505021
Game 3: http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=300507024

You can see in Game 1 they stepped up the defense and the offense to tie in the 3rd, but going into the 4th they just ran out of gas. The extra days of rest probably gave them the ability to bring up some energy for one last push, but just weren't able to sustain it.

In Game 2 you can see the Spurs are holding steady all game long both offensively and defensively, yet going into the 4th again they seem to peter out on energy. Phoenix starts to score more and we start to score less. Both lines slowly diverge.

Game 3 is probably the worst. At the same exact spot in the past two games - you see the offense of the Spurs slow down and the Suns start making points like crazy. San Antonio is able to keep a steady pace throughout the game, but just can't finish the last ~15 minutes or so of the game.

To me - it seems fairly obvious that San Antonio just isn't able to keep their energy level up throughout the game and are tiring out toward the end of the 3rd every time. This could be from several factors: the dreaded age factor, lack of rest due to a shorter rotation than the Suns, or possibly minor but nagging injuries that get worse as the game goes on. I would say its probably all three of these, with the biggest emphasis on the second factor. If you look at the box score - you'll notice we are playing our key guys much more in the playoffs than the regular season. It's bound to wear them out, as they're only used to playing around 32 minutes a game. 40+ must feel like a marathon in comparison (going from 32 to 40 minutes is a 25% increase in playing time. Yikes.)

The only way to nullify this weakness, it seems, is for the Spurs to shoot extremely well from the field, and gobble up any and all offensive rebounds possible. If the Spurs crash the boards with relentless enthusiasm, it should keep the Suns from pushing the pace on offense and tiring out San Antonio in transition. This comes with the cost of easy baskets - but energy seems to be our biggest enemy at the moment. Just let them have the easy transition baskets and keep the ball on the San Antonio side of the court for most of the game.

Of course just looking at simply game flow misses a lot of the minutia (such as matchups, rotations, momentum, etc.) but it does point out a major pattern showing up every game this series. I'd love to be able to fix it and win 4 in a row.

[SinBAD]

Its because of tired legs thats all.That is our problem: no bench.before the season started we thought mason will be like what he was last year, Bogans will be bowen, Bonner and blair will allow tim to rest longer, Mahimi will get minutes.None of this happened.the end result is that you have Tim playing 40 minutes.he is 34, he cant play that long anymore.He isnt a PF anymore either.he can only guard centers who sit in the post.

We just need a defensive stopper like Safelosha or pietrus or someone like that who is long and can defend anyone.We need to get rid of RJ and get someone like captain jack who is fearless.We are too soft now.Splitter needs to become the next duncan and dominate the post.Manu and TP are fine.Hill and Blair will be better.Surround them with 3 point shooters like Rudy fernandes maybe or bring in Nocioni, he is a good defender.There will be alot of players available lets see what they do.maybe go for Bosh if you can.There is alot of room for improvement.They will find a way in the offseason
No worries
The tim duncan era is not over till he and Manu retire

[diego]

If you look at the box score - you'll notice we are playing our key guys much more in the playoffs than the regular season. It's bound to wear them out, as they're only used to playing around 32 minutes a game. 40+ must feel like a marathon in comparison (going from 32 to 40 minutes is a 25% increase in playing time. Yikes.)


this is one of the reasons why i'm not a fan of pop's minute management tactic. if the players play less in the reg. season, you dont have a proper grip on the rotation and you don't know what they're capable of giving. they don't have a proper grip on their role, and they don't have a chance to test their stamina and know what they're capable of giving. all for a supposed benefit (preventing injuries) that has no guarantees, be it because of camera men, a hard foul, or just shit luck (tony's PF). and really, we've gone all season thinking pop is saving dyess for the PO... and he's playing less minutes in the playoffs. how many games have we lost over the past couple years because pop is saving players for the PO- what's the point? Its just a stupid strategy and there is a reason no other team does that. yes, the team is old. yes, our role players suck. the suns are deeper and younger. but you know what? they don't have 3 stars like we do, and our best 5 is better than their best 5. when we lost to the mavs in 06, we could at least say that damn near every game was extremely close. here we are getting literally destroyed by bench players, just pathetic.

ps: aside from pop, i'm pissed at tim for his FT and playing so slow inside and tony and especially manu for shooting so many jumpshots instead of going inside. i've said it once and i'll say it again- i'd rather 1 year of manu playing reckless to the rim, even if it means he only plays 75% of the games, than 3 years of manu being a dime a dozen jumpshooting SG that plays 95% of the games. all 4 of them (big 3 + pop) are capable of much better, even if they are older and slower.

its hard to be pissed at bonner, bogans, and mason, because it was pretty obvious they suck.

and its hard to be pissed at blair, dyess and mahinmi, when pop mismanaged them completely.

hill, is still young and gets a pass because for the most part he overachieved, but it would have been nice if he could have gotten a better dress rehearsal last year.

and RJ, is a mental midget wimp. he's capable of better, but he's too stupid and soft to know it. we better pray whoever is desperate enough for his expiring actually has something worth taking back.

[Agloco]

Good analysis. I noticed this also after the second game. the Spurs are basically playing 3 quarters and hitting the showers early. Whether or not thats due to the age factor or the Suns defense I don't know. They are playing the P&R pretty well this series.

[sananspursfan21]

yah, youre right. spurs have lead and i always get excited for what? so they can sissy it up in the fourth. this series has been one of the most disappointing to date

[cheney212]

agreed^

[LakerHater]

Its that fucked up defense that Coach Pop is putting out there (Tim on a PG)!