Spurs' Series Odds

[Russ]

Thinking about the Spurs' odds of winning the series at this point (yes, you read that correctly) we first note that no NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit.

Nonetheless, my calculation would be as follows:

If one team beats another three times in a row, I would conservatively assign a 75% chance for the dominant team to win any random future game against the weaker team.

Then, if the losing team must win four games in a row against that winning team, that would mean a 1 in 4 chance X 4 games.

That's a 1 in 256 chance to win the series.

Factor in the Suns chokiness against the Spurs and the Spurs' corresponding clutchness and maybe we could reduce it to 1 in 200.

As lefty singer-songwriter Todd Snyder croons, "A slim chance is still a chance." :toast

hWlnxgmSu8k&feature=related

[Bender]

,,,

[Cane]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RGX2lgFSrdM/SfeBTtQwoXI/AAAAAAAABsg/2mojxsLqQ8Q/s400/never-tell-me-the-odds.jpg

[Man In Black]

http://www.whowins.com/features/comeback.html

Down 3-0 and came back to win teams are the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, the 1975 New York Islanders, & the 2004 Boston Red Sox.

In the NBA the 1951 NY Knicks and the 1994 DEN Nuggets forced game 7's after being down 3-0.

If there ever was a time to do something that's never been done...THIS COULD BE IT!

[sammy]

Well we were the first 7th seeded team to beat a 2nd seeded team in the first round of the playoffs so you never know! If anyone can do it, the Spurs can! Go Spurs Go!

[da_suns_fan]

Thinking about the Spurs' odds of winning the series at this point (yes, you read that correctly) we first note that no NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit.

Nonetheless, my calculation would be as follows:

If one team beats another three times in a row, I would conservatively assign a 75% chance for the dominant team to win any random future game against the weaker team.

Then, if the losing team must win four games in a row against that winning team, that would mean a 1 in 4 chance X 4 games.

That's a 1 in 256 chance to win the series.

Factor in the Suns chokiness against the Spurs and the Spurs' corresponding clutchness and maybe we could reduce it to 1 in 200.

As lefty singer-songwriter Todd Snyder croons, "A slim chance is still a chance." :toast

hWlnxgmSu8k&feature=related

:rolleyes

So you think the Suns have a 75% chance to win every game, regardless of if its home or away for the rest of the series?

Thats ridiculous.

I would give the Suns a 35% percent chance for game four.

A 55% chance for game five.

A 40% chance for game six.

And a 60% chance for game seven.

Thus, the spurs odds of winning all four games would be .65*.45*.6*.4= 7.02%

[Russ]

:rolleyes

So you think the Suns have a 75% chance to win every game, regardless of if its home or away for the rest of the series?

Thats ridiculous.

I would give the Suns a 35% percent chance for game four.

A 55% chance for game five.

A 40% chance for game six.

And a 60% chance for game seven.

Thus, the spurs odds of winning all four games would be .65*.45*.6*.4= 7.02%

You think your team only has a 55% chance to win a home close-out game against a team they're up 3-0 on?

Man, you been a Suns' fan too long. :rollin

And as far as assigning a 75% winning chance to the Suns for all remaining games, that's because there are two home games and two away games for each -- it washes out.

Now, if the Spurs win tomorrow, the analysis changes -- the chances of the lower seeded team coming back from 1-3 is less than that of the team with home court -- the higher seeded team gets two home games and only one away.

(In fact, I believe all of the NBA teams that have come back from 1-3 may have had home court advantage in the series.)

[hsxvvd]

I'm at the point where I'm happy if the Suns beat the Lakers...

[InRareForm]

Shit, just send it to a game 6 just to get them scared.:toast

[Galileo]

The Spurs are a better team that the Suns. They were 7 point favorites at home, while the Suns were only favored by 4 at home.

Usually when teams are down 3-0, it is a lobsided series talent wise. Teh Spurs need to win game 4 and go from there. Frankly, the Spurs winning 4 games in a row is not a big deal, they do it all the time.

[Goran Dragic]

:lmao Galileo, I've been waiting for your retarded ass to show up.

[rmt]

:rolleyes

So you think the Suns have a 75% chance to win every game, regardless of if its home or away for the rest of the series?

Thats ridiculous.

I would give the Suns a 35% percent chance for game four.

A 55% chance for game five.

A 40% chance for game six.

And a 60% chance for game seven.

Thus, the spurs odds of winning all four games would be .65*.45*.6*.4= 7.02%

I would switch the % for games 5 and 7. 60% for the Suns to win game 5 (less pressure with more chances to come) and 55% to win game 7 (more pressure not to let the Spurs make history coming back from 0-3).

I'd prefer the Suns sweep so that they get more rest than the Lakers. Don't want it to go 7, lose, and the Suns have no chance against a rested Lakers team. Gentry, Nash and Hill (did you see them stop themselves from celebrating?) are nice. Only Amare is (how do I put it kindly) dumb, but I don't have the dislike for him that I do for Kobe, Fisher and Phil Jackson.

[siraulo23]

I'd be thrilled if the spurs win the game tomorrow

I already have the spurs -mavs series ready to be watched over and over.

[UnWantedTheory]

Just put on the best show possible and let it ride. I dont want to get swept. I want to show at least a little determination and heart before the end.

[Man In Black]

I got my tickets for Game 5 in Phoenix today. I want to watch a game, I want to see it all left on the court, and hopefully, that results in a victory. It's not like they haven't had chances to win these games. If you look at the Utah-LAL series, those games had closer scores but it's still 3-0 higher seed over lower seed.

If ever there was a time to make a huge statement...this is it!
To steal a line from Curt Schilling,"Why not us?"

[Russ]

I got my tickets for Game 5 in Phoenix today. I want to watch a game, I want to see it all left on the court, and hopefully, that results in a victory. It's not like they haven't had chances to win these games. If you look at the Utah-LAL series, those games had closer scores but it's still 3-0 higher seed over lower seed.

If ever there was a time to make a huge statement...this is it!
To steal a line from Curt Schilling,"Why not us?"

Hold down the fort for Game 5! (And somebody get Manu a bloody sock.)

[DubMcDub]

http://www.whowins.com/features/comeback.html

Down 3-0 and came back to win teams are the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, the 1975 New York Islanders, & the 2004 Boston Red Sox.

In the NBA the 1951 NY Knicks and the 1994 DEN Nuggets forced game 7's after being down 3-0.

If there ever was a time to do something that's never been done...THIS COULD BE IT!

Blazers also forced a Game 7 against the Mavs in 2003 after being down 0-3....but lost.

[Budkin]

We might beat the Suns 3 games in a row but there's no way in hell we are beating them 4 in a row.

[sananspursfan21]

regardless of whether i think the spurs can still win the series or not, i think they have a great chance of winning game 4. i think the suns will have lost some focus, the spurs will pounce to show a glimmer of hope. i wouldn't expect it to go much further than that though. i'm always hopeful though

[LakerHater]

The odds suck for the Spurs, I'll still be rootin for them!
But this guy says:

http://s4.tinypic.com/24kxpv6_th.jpg (http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=24kxpv6&s=4&hid=4&tag=steve+nash)

[spurs10]

G!S!G! Believe!!!!!!!!!!!!

[m33p0]

odds are against us.

[GrandeDavid]

We might beat the Suns 3 games in a row but there's no way in hell we are beating them 4 in a row.

I'm glad that the Spurs are not in he'll.

[Tito_Trinidad]

Mark the following words:

"If we push the series 3-2, then we will win game 7 !!! "

Explanation:

I feel tonight we will win. But, the important game is Game 5, because we will play 1-3, and as visitors, so thats the crucial and brutal game. If we win game 5, the momentum shits to Spurs tremendously and the inspiration will win Game 6 in San Antonio. Suns morale will be wayyyyyyyy DOWN for Game 7, no matter if in Phoenix.

I believe.