duncan228
05-08-2010, 10:07 PM
N.B.A. Postseason Ruled by Well-Worn Maxim: ‘The Game Slows Down’ (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/09/sports/basketball/09offense.html)
By Howard Beck
The New York Times
In the fairy-tale world, a slow-and-steady tortoise once beat a quick-but-arrogant hare, who foolishly napped midrace. If they played basketball, this would be considered proof that turtles are better suited for the playoffs.
The N.B.A. postseason is ruled by many maxims, chief among them that “the game slows down” around mid-April. Defense dominates. The halfcourt game rules. Fast breaks wither. The rabbit loses his edge. The tortoise does a victory dance.
This is more than a mere cliché. Statistical analysis proves that the pace in the N.B.A. playoffs does slow slightly, by about 2 percent, which seemingly favors teams with a more deliberate style. It is just that no one can say absolutely, positively, definitively why that is.
“Is that on purpose?” Gregg Popovich, the San Antonio Spurs’ coach, said rhetorically. “Does everybody try to do that? Do coaches try to take more control? Who knows? It’s the same question every year, and nobody really knows.”
On its face, the adage does not make much sense. If the Phoenix Suns run for 82 games, why can’t they keep running in the playoffs? When two philosophies clash, why is the methodical team able to impose its style and pace?
Coaches, players and commentators offer many theories: that referees call the game tighter (N.B.A. officials disagree), that teams play more physically, that players play harder and smarter and take away fast-break chances.
Whatever the reasons, the results are fairly consistent.
A study of seven seasons, from 2002-8, found that pace slowed by 2 percent — or two possessions per team per game — from the regular season to the playoffs. That analysis, which was conducted by one team’s front office, focused only on the 16 teams that made the playoffs, comparing their regular-season and postseason statistics.
The study also found that shooting percentages decline everywhere on the court, except in the paint; that effective field-goal percentage (which adjusts for 3-pointers) declines by 1.5 percent; that the number of fouls and free throws increases; and that assist rates drop.
Phil Jackson, who has won 10 championships as coach of the Chicago Bulls and the Los Angeles Lakers, has his own adage for playoff basketball, “Put them in the grinder, we say.”
The nature of a playoff series makes it possible. In the playoffs, a coaching staff can prepare for one opponent and one style at a time. For instance, Jackson noted, a team might not defend a point guard full court in the regular season, but will in the playoffs to prevent the fast break.
“Teams can focus in on what really is the pivotal point, either offensively or defensively, that they have to do to stop a team,” Jackson said. “Just by nature, you don’t give up easy scores.”
Ideally, coaches would adjust their defenses from night to night, from one opponent to the next. But that is nearly impossible during an 82-game season, when practice time can be scant and teams play four opponents in a week. Players can only absorb so much.
“Your focus may not be there all the time, because stuff can be repetitive, boring, however you want to call it,” said Mike Brown, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ coach.
The easiest way to slow a transition team is to make shots at a high rate, because it is tougher to run off a made basket. And the best teams usually have a dominant post player — Shaquille O’Neal with the early-2000s Lakers, Tim Duncan with the Spurs — who can pound the ball in the paint, take time off the clock and make high-percentage shots. When they miss, the rebound is shorter, too, allowing time for teammates to get back on defense. Running teams feed off of long rebounds.
“You’re not playing against reckless teams,” the Spurs’ Richard Jefferson said. “When you’re creating turnovers and getting deflections, that always spurs the fast break. That always gets you going. When you’re playing against quality playoff teams, they typically don’t turn the ball over that much, they typically slow the game down, they take good shots, or don’t make as many mistakes.”
The 2002-8 analysis also found that rotations shrink — meaning that coaches are taking minutes and shots away from bench players and giving those minutes and shots to their stars. That should lead to better shooting and fewer mistakes.
“The only way a fast-break team can establish tempo is one of two things,” the Cavaliers assistant Hank Egan said. “They’ve got to play really good defense, so they can get the ball off the board and go. The other thing is, they want to pick up full court and get into a pressure situation. And the talent level in the N.B.A. makes it very hard to create tempo through full-court pressure for a consistent period of time. People can convert against that too easy. But I also think at any level, the slower-tempo team really dictates what’s going on most of the time.”
In the 2010 playoffs, teams are averaging 90 possessions a game, down from a leaguewide average of 92.7 in the regular season. Oklahoma City, a young, athletic team that feeds on transition scoring, was flustered when the Lakers slowed the pace in the first round.
“They’re not going to allow you to do what you want many times,” Coach Scott Brooks said last week, before the Thunder was eliminated in six games.
A running team can, however, adapt.
The case study is provided by the Suns, the N.B.A.’s run-and-gun darlings. They were the fourth-fastest team in the regular season, averaging 95.3 possessions per game (http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2010.html), according to Basketball-Reference.com (http://www.basketball-reference.com/). They are averaging just 89.7 possessions in the playoffs (http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2010.html), where they have faced two halfcourt-minded teams, Portland and San Antonio.
The Suns beat the Trail Blazers in six games and have a 3-0 lead against the Spurs. With an efficient offense, both in halfcourt and in transition, Phoenix is averaging 117.8 points per 100 possessions, the highest rate in the playoffs, despite a pace that is glacial by Suns standards. The Suns are playing enough defense to make it all stand up.
Hares prefer to sprint, but the smart ones pace themselves.
But does two possessions per game really mean that much? Shouldn’t a skilled running team still have an advantage? These are questions, Popovich said, that are never truly solved.
“In the end,” he said, “what you do is, you be you. And you play. And that’s the final answer.”
Jonathan Abrams contributed reporting.
By Howard Beck
The New York Times
In the fairy-tale world, a slow-and-steady tortoise once beat a quick-but-arrogant hare, who foolishly napped midrace. If they played basketball, this would be considered proof that turtles are better suited for the playoffs.
The N.B.A. postseason is ruled by many maxims, chief among them that “the game slows down” around mid-April. Defense dominates. The halfcourt game rules. Fast breaks wither. The rabbit loses his edge. The tortoise does a victory dance.
This is more than a mere cliché. Statistical analysis proves that the pace in the N.B.A. playoffs does slow slightly, by about 2 percent, which seemingly favors teams with a more deliberate style. It is just that no one can say absolutely, positively, definitively why that is.
“Is that on purpose?” Gregg Popovich, the San Antonio Spurs’ coach, said rhetorically. “Does everybody try to do that? Do coaches try to take more control? Who knows? It’s the same question every year, and nobody really knows.”
On its face, the adage does not make much sense. If the Phoenix Suns run for 82 games, why can’t they keep running in the playoffs? When two philosophies clash, why is the methodical team able to impose its style and pace?
Coaches, players and commentators offer many theories: that referees call the game tighter (N.B.A. officials disagree), that teams play more physically, that players play harder and smarter and take away fast-break chances.
Whatever the reasons, the results are fairly consistent.
A study of seven seasons, from 2002-8, found that pace slowed by 2 percent — or two possessions per team per game — from the regular season to the playoffs. That analysis, which was conducted by one team’s front office, focused only on the 16 teams that made the playoffs, comparing their regular-season and postseason statistics.
The study also found that shooting percentages decline everywhere on the court, except in the paint; that effective field-goal percentage (which adjusts for 3-pointers) declines by 1.5 percent; that the number of fouls and free throws increases; and that assist rates drop.
Phil Jackson, who has won 10 championships as coach of the Chicago Bulls and the Los Angeles Lakers, has his own adage for playoff basketball, “Put them in the grinder, we say.”
The nature of a playoff series makes it possible. In the playoffs, a coaching staff can prepare for one opponent and one style at a time. For instance, Jackson noted, a team might not defend a point guard full court in the regular season, but will in the playoffs to prevent the fast break.
“Teams can focus in on what really is the pivotal point, either offensively or defensively, that they have to do to stop a team,” Jackson said. “Just by nature, you don’t give up easy scores.”
Ideally, coaches would adjust their defenses from night to night, from one opponent to the next. But that is nearly impossible during an 82-game season, when practice time can be scant and teams play four opponents in a week. Players can only absorb so much.
“Your focus may not be there all the time, because stuff can be repetitive, boring, however you want to call it,” said Mike Brown, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ coach.
The easiest way to slow a transition team is to make shots at a high rate, because it is tougher to run off a made basket. And the best teams usually have a dominant post player — Shaquille O’Neal with the early-2000s Lakers, Tim Duncan with the Spurs — who can pound the ball in the paint, take time off the clock and make high-percentage shots. When they miss, the rebound is shorter, too, allowing time for teammates to get back on defense. Running teams feed off of long rebounds.
“You’re not playing against reckless teams,” the Spurs’ Richard Jefferson said. “When you’re creating turnovers and getting deflections, that always spurs the fast break. That always gets you going. When you’re playing against quality playoff teams, they typically don’t turn the ball over that much, they typically slow the game down, they take good shots, or don’t make as many mistakes.”
The 2002-8 analysis also found that rotations shrink — meaning that coaches are taking minutes and shots away from bench players and giving those minutes and shots to their stars. That should lead to better shooting and fewer mistakes.
“The only way a fast-break team can establish tempo is one of two things,” the Cavaliers assistant Hank Egan said. “They’ve got to play really good defense, so they can get the ball off the board and go. The other thing is, they want to pick up full court and get into a pressure situation. And the talent level in the N.B.A. makes it very hard to create tempo through full-court pressure for a consistent period of time. People can convert against that too easy. But I also think at any level, the slower-tempo team really dictates what’s going on most of the time.”
In the 2010 playoffs, teams are averaging 90 possessions a game, down from a leaguewide average of 92.7 in the regular season. Oklahoma City, a young, athletic team that feeds on transition scoring, was flustered when the Lakers slowed the pace in the first round.
“They’re not going to allow you to do what you want many times,” Coach Scott Brooks said last week, before the Thunder was eliminated in six games.
A running team can, however, adapt.
The case study is provided by the Suns, the N.B.A.’s run-and-gun darlings. They were the fourth-fastest team in the regular season, averaging 95.3 possessions per game (http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2010.html), according to Basketball-Reference.com (http://www.basketball-reference.com/). They are averaging just 89.7 possessions in the playoffs (http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2010.html), where they have faced two halfcourt-minded teams, Portland and San Antonio.
The Suns beat the Trail Blazers in six games and have a 3-0 lead against the Spurs. With an efficient offense, both in halfcourt and in transition, Phoenix is averaging 117.8 points per 100 possessions, the highest rate in the playoffs, despite a pace that is glacial by Suns standards. The Suns are playing enough defense to make it all stand up.
Hares prefer to sprint, but the smart ones pace themselves.
But does two possessions per game really mean that much? Shouldn’t a skilled running team still have an advantage? These are questions, Popovich said, that are never truly solved.
“In the end,” he said, “what you do is, you be you. And you play. And that’s the final answer.”
Jonathan Abrams contributed reporting.