We Are Seeing How Important Duncan Was. Now That He's Declined, Is There Any Hope?

[vednam]

The last couple of playoff runs have shown just how reliant the Spurs are on Tim Duncan to be a dominant force.

He's still putting up 18 and 10, which isn't THAT far off from the 22 and 12 he used to give the Spurs. But he doesn't demand the same attention from defenses that he used to, and he's not the defensive presence that he used to be.

Perhaps most important, however, Tim just doesn't have that extra gear. He can't take over and control a game like he used to. A few years ago, Timmy would have made the key plays to hold off the Suns in the 4th quarter in many of these recent games. The Suns would not have been getting so many easy baskets (remember Game 6 vs. the Suns in 2007 when Timmy had something like 8 blocks?) The series would be 2-2, or maybe even 3-1, Spurs. We got a brief glimpse of that in the Dallas series in Game 2 (I think), where Duncan made every key basket down the stretch to hold off the Mavs.


That is the biggest difference between the Spurs now and the Spurs then.





With all due respect to Tony and Manu (two of my favorite players ever), they are not and never were superstars.

Tony looks incredible at times, and he gets me thinking "He might be the best point guard in the league! He might be a Top 10 player! Who can stop this guy?" But then there will be a stretch of games which remind me of all of his limitations. He's not as natural a playmaker as the Nashes and Pauls of the league. He's not a top-notch defender. And he can be taken out of a game. I must admit though that Tony is an incredible finisher and a very underrated clutch shooter. But he's just not a player who can carry a team.

A lot of people on this board like to speak of Manu as if he's one of the top players in the league when he's healthy. The truth is, he SOMETIMES plays like one of the top players in the league. But he is and always has been very inconsistent. For a few games in a series, he will be red hot and the best player on the court. But there will be other games where he struggles, is erratic, and more or less a non-factor. This was true even in the championship seasons. With Manu, it is feast or famine. To get through a tough playoff series, sometimes you need more reliability.

Tony and Manu were often able to push the Spurs over the top (and look like the difference-makers) because Duncan covered up their limitations and inconsistency.


Tony and Manu did not have their best playoff runs this season. But they were not that far off from their usual selves. And it was clear to me that even at their best, neither would be able to fill the superstar void left by Duncan's slide.

All of the games in this series were close, but no one on the Spurs was able to take over down the stretch. No one was able to put their stamp on a game, and force the Suns' defense to scramble trying to stop them. The Suns appeared to have the Spurs figured out, and none of the Big 3 could force them back to the drawing board.



So my question is, does Duncan's slip from "arguably the best player in the league" to "just another all-star" mean the window is closed for good?

Aside from the 2004 Pistons, 2008 Celtics, and 1989-90 Pistons, every champion in the last 30 years has had a player who was arguably the best player in the league. The other four teams I mentioned compensated by playing suffocating defense. The Spurs can be a good defensive team, but it's tough to see how they can be a dominant defensive team with their current personnel (plus a move or two).

[greyforest]

duncan still usually draws doubles which still leads to someone on the perimeter getting open

the difference this year is that there's never anyone consistent enough to knock down that 3

[vednam]

duncan still usually draws doubles which still leads to someone on the perimeter getting open

the difference this year is that there's never anyone consistent enough to knock down that 3


That is a valid point and a big factor, but Duncan's decline is an even bigger factor and something which is more difficult to remedy.

[Jason R]

I don't want to bicker about it, obviously he's not as good as he was, but the Suns rotated doubles on Timmy. A lot. I'm not so upset about the offense as I am the defense.

[upTD]

That is a valid point and a big factor, but Duncan's decline is an even bigger factor and something which is more difficult to remedy.

agree with you

[TDfan2007]

The last couple of playoff runs have shown just how reliant the Spurs are on Tim Duncan to be a dominant force.

He's still putting up 18 and 10, which isn't THAT far off from the 22 and 12 he used to give the Spurs. But he doesn't demand the same attention from defenses that he used to, and he's not the defensive presence that he used to be.

Perhaps most important, however, Tim just doesn't have that extra gear. He can't take over and control a game like he used to. A few years ago, Timmy would have made the key plays to hold off the Suns in the 4th quarter in many of these recent games. The Suns would not have been getting so many easy baskets (remember Game 6 vs. the Suns in 2007 when Timmy had something like 8 blocks?) The series would be 2-2, or maybe even 3-1, Spurs. We got a brief glimpse of that in the Dallas series in Game 2 (I think), where Duncan made every key basket down the stretch to hold off the Mavs.


That is the biggest difference between the Spurs now and the Spurs then.





With all due respect to Tony and Manu (two of my favorite players ever), they are not and never were superstars.

Tony looks incredible at times, and he gets me thinking "He might be the best point guard in the league! He might be a Top 10 player! Who can stop this guy?" But then there will be a stretch of games which remind me of all of his limitations. He's not as natural a playmaker as the Nashes and Pauls of the league. He's not a top-notch defender. And he can be taken out of a game. I must admit though that Tony is an incredible finisher and a very underrated clutch shooter. But he's just not a player who can carry a team.

A lot of people on this board like to speak of Manu as if he's one of the top players in the league when he's healthy. The truth is, he SOMETIMES plays like one of the top players in the league. But he is and always has been very inconsistent. For a few games in a series, he will be red hot and the best player on the court. But there will be other games where he struggles, is erratic, and more or less a non-factor. This was true even in the championship seasons. With Manu, it is feast or famine. To get through a tough playoff series, sometimes you need more reliability.

Tony and Manu were often able to push the Spurs over the top (and look like the difference-makers) because Duncan covered up their limitations and inconsistency.


Tony and Manu did not have their best playoff runs this season. But they were not that far off from their usual selves. And it was clear to me that even at their best, neither would be able to fill the superstar void left by Duncan's slide.

All of the games in this series were close, but no one on the Spurs was able to take over down the stretch. No one was able to put their stamp on a game, and force the Suns' defense to scramble trying to stop them. The Suns appeared to have the Spurs figured out, and none of the Big 3 could force them back to the drawing board.



So my question is, does Duncan's slip from "arguably the best player in the league" to "just another all-star" mean the window is closed for good?

Aside from the 2004 Pistons, 2008 Celtics, and 1989-90 Pistons, every champion in the last 30 years has had a player who was arguably the best player in the league. The other four teams I mentioned compensated by playing suffocating defense. The Spurs can be a good defensive team, but it's tough to see how they can be a dominant defensive team with their current personnel (plus a move or two).

All very valid points. The future doesn't look good for now, but we'll see what the summer brings...

[milkyway21]

What matters most to be is TIM DUNCAN won 4 titles for San Antonio before he retires.

Whether he wins one for his thumb or not It doesn't matter to me.
I already know HOW IT FEELS when your favorite team wins a title. SO...

thank you~~~

YOU ARE STILL MY FAVORITE TEAM, SAN ANTONIO!

THANK YOU FOR SHOWING UR CLASS ACT AFTER THE GAME :tu

[milkyway21]

I don't want to bicker about it, obviously he's not as good as he was, but the Suns rotated doubles on Timmy. A lot. I'm not so upset about the offense as I am the defense.
it's so painful that the refs allowed it...esp in the 1Q. but it's over now. Thank God He's okay, GHill is okay, TP & Manu are okay.

Tiago come over now...:D

[xellos88330]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=153953

This is an idea that I have to keep him effective. Unfortunately everyone will probably think that I am retarded for it.

[vednam]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=153953

This is an idea that I have to keep him effective. Unfortunately everyone will probably think that I am retarded for it.




Sorry, but I just can't get behind that.

[florige]

Idk, this series kinda reminded me of that series in 95 against Houston when all they did was swarm D-Rob anytime he got the ball in the post and pretty much dared any of our non-existent shooters to beat them.

[Russ]

Duncan can be a contributer on a contending team for a while -- assuming his knees stay manageable.

Old bigs decline slowly, especially ones that play like Duncan. The problem is the surrounding players. That's where missteps have been made.

But appearances can change quickly -- no team had a bleaker-looking future than the Lakers three years ago. Blow it up and rebuild everyone said. Same with the Suns just last year. Or Boston four years ago. One or two moves that work can change everything. The Spurs still have that chance (and Splitter might be a good first step).

[Cane]

Duncan is still a very serviceable big but he's no longer the lone anchor. He's had basically zero help defending the paint throughout the season since McDyess is also old and didn't come to play until the playoffs.

Spurs basically have zero shotblockers outside of Tim Duncan and that needs to change. Hell, Duncan is the only great defender left on the Spurs squad imo.

[z0sa]

Dyess doesn't do the dirty work consistently throughout the season. Tim needs someone who can do the heavy lifting while he takes the season easy.

[Cane]

Also worth mentioning that pretty much all members of the Big 3 regressed noticeably in the playoffs. Manu, whether it was his nose and/or confidence was horrible shooting-wise and Tony Parker never really found a rhythm.

Duncan was the best of the big 3 imo but he's had his own blemishes like horrible free throw shooting and inconsistent offensive production.

We're also seeing how important Bowen was to the Spurs system. We need a great perimeter defender that can hit the 3's.

[Capt Bringdown]

A lot of people on this board like to speak of Manu as if he's one of the top players in the league when he's healthy. The truth is, he SOMETIMES plays like one of the top players in the league. But he is and always has been very inconsistent. For a few games in a series, he will be red hot and the best player on the court. But there will be other games where he struggles, is erratic, and more or less a non-factor. This was true even in the championship seasons. With Manu, it is feast or famine. To get through a tough playoff series, sometimes you need more reliability.


Refreshing to see an honest and accurate description of Manu's game. Agree with your other points about Duncan. It seems to me that Tony is now our most reliable player, and obviously that's a problem.

[Gagnrath]

I don't support the Duncan bench idea. Another inside defensive force is needed. Would be nice to get some offense out of them. McDyess was supposed to help this year but was old and more non athletic than what we had hoped. He wasn't bad in the play- offs but didn't give the spurs what they really needed. Average outside defenders become much better when they have a good athletic shot-blocker to funnel drivers into. Timmy isn't that anymore being a step slower nor was McDyess. Parker is an average defender, both manu and hill are above average defenders that will look better with shot blockers inside. The lack of anything at small forward worries me alot. Jefferson put up serviceable enough averages for a lower tier starting small forward in the NBA the problem is he is payed like a superstar. He has a non existent back-up.

Blowing things up doesn't seem like a good idea, Tim put up decent numbers all year for a starting power-forward/ Center without any real help inside, (and having another player there so you aren't fighting 2 on one helps alot) we've got a decent young core coming up as well. Parker is not close to a decline yet though he needs to spend the off season getting healthy in shape and putting on a little bit more upper body strength. Blair is going to develop into a very very good inside presence off the bench. Manu has 3 or 4 more years left pending catastrophic injury which could happen to anyone. Hill is coming along very nicely. And temple looks to have found a team and a place. If splitter is 3/4ths of expectations the spurs are fine. A small forward solution needs to be found and in two years We need to find someone to replace Duncan. I don't know what to do about mahinmi he's young has good potential, needs playing time and some sort of teaching. He can't go to the D league anymore. Maybe don't pick him up see him go to europe for 2 or 3 years and develop there then comeback or earn nice pay-days there.

[Agloco]

The last couple of playoff runs have shown just how reliant the Spurs are on Tim Duncan to be a dominant force.

He's still putting up 18 and 10, which isn't THAT far off from the 22 and 12 he used to give the Spurs. But he doesn't demand the same attention from defenses that he used to, and he's not the defensive presence that he used to be.

Perhaps most important, however, Tim just doesn't have that extra gear. He can't take over and control a game like he used to. A few years ago, Timmy would have made the key plays to hold off the Suns in the 4th quarter in many of these recent games. The Suns would not have been getting so many easy baskets (remember Game 6 vs. the Suns in 2007 when Timmy had something like 8 blocks?) The series would be 2-2, or maybe even 3-1, Spurs. We got a brief glimpse of that in the Dallas series in Game 2 (I think), where Duncan made every key basket down the stretch to hold off the Mavs.


That is the biggest difference between the Spurs now and the Spurs then.




Well, that and none of this guy:

http://justgivemethestats.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/spurs07bowen.jpg

I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but the real troubles started when Bruce declined. Ever take a close look at the Spurs dip in defensive efficiency? There's a strong correlation between the two. No one has been groomed to be that stopper at the three. This make Timmys life even harder.