I hesistate to even post this...

[Yonivore]

...because, 1) it's an opinion piece by Karl Rove and, well, thanks to many of the knee-jerk trolls in here, the thread is likely to devolve into a flame war over how evil is Karl Rove instead of a thoughtful conversation on what he is saying, and 2) I believe in the old adage that when an opponent is in the process of shooting themselves in the foot, you let them.

But, considering that I rather enjoy watching the intellectual midgets, in here, expound on all things evil about "Bush's brain" and, further, that I don't believe anyone in this forum is within 15 degrees of anyone else capable of stopping the Democrat decline, before November; I'm going to post it...

How Badly Will the Democrats Do? (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703339304575240371622364714.html)


Intensity matters as well. The latest Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll reports two-thirds of Republicans are "extremely" or "very" interested in the midterms, compared to only half of Democrats. Older voters are almost twice as likely as younger voters to be interested; and seniors now favor the GOP 50% to 41%.

Look for the Obama White House to try raising Democratic intensity in the months ahead, especially among blacks, Latinos and liberals. The president's harsh attacks on the Arizona immigration law are part of this strategy.

Another important metric for the fall is the turnout for primaries. Is it rising or falling compared to four years ago? The results so far are bad for Democrats. For example, in Ohio, Democratic participation was down 24% over the last midterm while GOP turnout was up 64%.

:corn:

[Blake]

...because, 1) it's an opinion piece by Karl Rove and, well, thanks to many of the knee-jerk trolls in here, the thread is likely to devolve into a flame war over how evil is Karl Rove instead of a thoughtful conversation on what he is saying,

Where are your thoughts on what he is saying?


2) I believe in the old adage that when an opponent is in the process of shooting themselves in the foot, you let them.

if that were applied to you, it wouldnt take long for you to be footless.

[Nbadan]

Intensity matters as well. The latest Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll reports two-thirds of Republicans are "extremely" or "very" interested in the midterms, compared to only half of Democrats.

What is the history of mid-term elections when one party controls both houses and the Presidency?

[Yonivore]

What is the history of mid-term elections when one party controls both houses and the Presidency?
I think we both agree one, or both, of the legislative bodies will lose Democratic seats. That's no surprise.

The question is how bad is it going to be? It's a long way to November.

[Nbadan]

The 'Political Guru' led the GOP to a total and utter defeat...yeah, that's the guy the Dems should listen too...

[Nbadan]

The question is how bad is it going to be? It's a long way to November.

its gonna have to hurt for the Dems to lose either house, so on whichever political scale you put it on, it will be bad...

[Yonivore]

The 'Political Guru' led the GOP to a total and utter defeat...yeah, that's the guy the Dems should listen too...
I hope they don't...besides, I don't think he was offering Democrats advice.

[Yonivore]

its gonna have to hurt for the Dems to lose either house, so on whichever political scale you put it on, it will be bad...
We can only hope it's like 1894 when the incumbents lost 125 seats.

Current estimates put the number of seats in play at 130.

[Nbadan]

I hope they don't...besides, I don't think he was offering Democrats advice.

I don't think they'd take it either way, as far as his prediction, we'll see...what ever happens though you can be sure that wing-nuts will be cheering victory and the Dems will be great full that it it wasn't worse....

[EmptyMan]

The president's harsh attacks on the Arizona immigration law are part of this strategy.ding ding ding, lol at the americants picking up the manufactured racism angle and running with it


lol @ being nuthugged for being such an ivy league intellectual and still pulling this elementary reliance on group herding of voters:lmao

[Nbadan]

Current estimates put the number of seats in play at 130.

I think you have to take a much deeper look at the numbers, clearly many Democratic districts are not 'in play'..because they are so heavily Democratic...that does not mean that the GOP can't win some seats, just that they likely won't win many...there are a fair number of GOP seats open too, and discontent for incumbents being what it is, perhaps it will leave the gates open for a Dem to defeat a inexperienced Republican in GOP turf...

[ChumpDumper]

I don't think you hesitated at all.

[Yonivore]

I think you have to take a much deeper look at the numbers, clearly many Democratic districts are not 'in play'..because they are so heavily Democratic...that does not mean that the GOP can't win some seats, just that they likely won't win many...there are a fair number of GOP seats open too, and discontent for incumbents being what it is, perhaps it will leave the gates open for a Dem to defeat a inexperienced Republican in GOP turf...
I think that was both parties... Something like 95 Democrat seats and the rest Republican...

[Stringer_Bell]

Who gives a fuck what Karl Rove thinks about Republican/Democratic turn out? Does he need the money that bad to keep putting out bullshit like this?

I thought the real interesting story about November was NOT Reps vs Dems, it was incumbants in general being attacked for not doing jack shit for anyone but themselves. Enough with the lame attempts for both parties to establish themselves as hopeful and pragmatic...neither have any ideas they can honestly put their balls behind and push through to help this country.

[Winehole23]

It's a little early to read the tea leaves, but the GOP could get the house back. Gittin the Senate back would be a level of excellence the GOP ain't shown yet. It could happen. But it ain't very likely.

[Winehole23]

If the trend holds up, the GOP could gain seats but lose seniority. The anti-incumbent nisus (http://dictionary.die.net/nisus) could come close to the all-time-high.