Spurs in Preview: What can we expect from Tim Duncan in 2010-11?

[duncan228]

Spurs in Preview: What can we expect from Tim Duncan in 2010-11? (http://www.kens5.com/sports/Spurs-in-Preview-What-can-we-expect-from-Tim-Duncan-in-2010-11-93853584.html)
by Dan Oshinsky / KENS 5

Looking back on 2009-10, one thing seems obvious: if not for Manu Ginobili's remarkable play after the All-Star break, the Spurs probably finish no better than the 8th playoff spot in the West.

But if not for Tim Duncan's play before the All-Star break, the Spurs might not have even been in the conversation.

Next season, when the playoffs roll around, Duncan will be celebrating his 35th birthday. Which brings up a major question: what kind of role can Duncan play for the Spurs next season?

The Splits

Let's break down Duncan's 2009-10 season by month, starting with November. (The Spurs only played three games in October, so I'm excluding that data due to small sample size.)

* November -- 19.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.2 blocks

* December -- 21.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 blocks

* January -- 19.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 blocks

* February -- 16.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.3 blocks

And note the last two months of the season:

* March -- 14.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 blocks

* April -- 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.6 blocks

March and April were also Duncan's least impressive months for offensive rebounds. From November to February, Duncan averaged at least 3.1 offensive rebounds per game. In March, that number dropped to 1.8, and it ticked up to 1.9 in April.

So What's It All Mean?

At the All-Star break, while Ginobili was averaging only 13.4 points per game, and while Tony Parker was dealing with injuries, Duncan was playing like a forward still in his prime. Players of his age and size aren't supposed to be able put up a 20/10/3/2 stat line every night. Duncan did.

That's why Duncan is -- at the very minimum -- a Hall of Famer and one of the best power forwards ever.

But Duncan's play couldn't -- and didn't -- last. He was playing 33+ minutes per night, and his knees can only take so much. His stats regressed to the mean, and yet he still put up impressive numbers to finish the year -- because he's just that good of a player.

Still, the reality is, while Duncan among the league's highest-paid players, his value to the team isn't what it was even two seasons ago. Expect Duncan's stats next season to continue to slide to something like 15-17 points, 7-9 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 block per game. For a 34-year-old starter, those would still be excellent numbers.

The Admiral-able Comparison

Out of curiosity, I looked at David Robinson's numbers from the same age-range. When Robinson was both 34 and 35, here's how he did:

* Age 34: 17.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.3 blocks

* Age 35: 14.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 2.5 blocks

But there's another factor to consider: Robinson had an in-his-prime Tim Duncan carrying much of the load in the front court. The only way I can see Duncan putting up a season close to Robinson's at age 34 is if he gets similar protection on the front line.

Mr. Tiago Splitter, please pick up the white courtesy phone. South Texas is calling.

[honestfool84]

Mr. Tiago Splitter, please pick up the white courtesy phone. South Texas is calling.

[benefactor]

That last line is all that matters. If Splitter does not come over then next season is pretty much over before it starts.

[BronxCowboy]

That last line is all that matters. If Splitter does not come over then next season is pretty much over before it starts.

I still don't understand why people are so convinced of this. We've never had Splitter on the Spurs before, and have always done fine. Maybe not championship-great, but very good. Either way, the Spurs are likely to return ALL of the key players on a very good team, Jefferson is likely to be more comfortable in his role, Blair and Hill could well be even better, and no Splitter means the entire MLE is available to sign another solid veteran. The Spurs can be very good next year with or without Splitter.

[kaji157]

I still don't understand why people are so convinced of this. We've never had Splitter on the Spurs before, and have always done fine. Maybe not championship-great, but very good. Either way, the Spurs are likely to return ALL of the key players on a very good team, Jefferson is likely to be more comfortable in his role, Blair and Hill could well be even better, and no Splitter means the entire MLE is available to sign another solid veteran. The Spurs can be very good next year with or without Splitter.

Because right now our frontcourt is very old, or small, whatever you choose.
Duncan and McDyess can only carry some load, then after those, you have Blair, a nice player but really challenged by his size on defense.
Unless Mahinmi exploits to be a player like Serge Ibaka, Splitter or a similar players needs to be added to our frontcourt.

I would say as of now, that we need Splitter and Blair to combine on season averages of 20 and 15 for us to have a chance at the title.

Ideally, Blair learns a few go-to moves in the post to be more consistent, learns to put a screen (yes, you don´t always have to roll), and improves his positional defense, maybe he wants to call Chuck Hayes for some tips. If this happens, you start him at PF next to Duncan at C, who focuses more on defense, and passes some of his offensive responsibilities to DeJuan Blair.

In Splitter you have a very good C to play either alongside Blair, Duncan or McDyess (none of them really C), good rebounder and defender, and a good pick n roll players (always helps in our system).

If Blair manages to average 14-9 as a starter and Splitter goes with 9-8 as a sub, then we are back on track.

The downside would be that unless Jefferson learns how to follow and play in a pick n roll offense (maybe he wants to watch Kirilenko for a reference) he would fit even less.

[Waps1980]

Tims minutes might also be cut back after all star break on a lead up to playoffs.
This could very well be a reason behind his numbers dropping off.

Robinson’s minutes dropped off once he had Timmy as he took the back seat and let TD take the wheel.
That’s the reason possibly behind his drop in production.

[Jason R]

I still don't understand why people are so convinced of this. We've never had Splitter on the Spurs before, and have always done fine. Maybe not championship-great, but very good. Either way, the Spurs are likely to return ALL of the key players on a very good team, Jefferson is likely to be more comfortable in his role, Blair and Hill could well be even better, and no Splitter means the entire MLE is available to sign another solid veteran. The Spurs can be very good next year with or without Splitter.

We need frontcourt reinforcement if we're going to win a championship. That's why we need Splitter.

[tuncaboylu]

I see the people have too high expectations about Splitter, but don't think that he can be more than 9 pts 5 rebs player in his first year. He's not a very good rebounder even in Europe and you can be very sure that he won't have more than 7 rebs average in his NBA career.

It would be nice for us if Splitter joins. But it's obvious that he's not enough alone. We need a good three-pointer who can shoot well from the corners.(I don't know, Kapano, Korver...) If we spend all MLE to Splitter, we will have only LLE or veteran minimum to gather a player like that; and I'm doubtful that we can find it.

[Riverwalkman]

Out of curiosity, I looked at David Robinson's numbers from the same age-range. When Robinson was both 34 and 35, here's how he did:

* Age 34: 17.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.3 blocks

* Age 35: 14.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 2.5 blocks

This. David had played less seasons than Duncan has. And when he retired, his physical condition was still decent, I doubt Duncan could be the same...in the season Duncan retires, he probably would not have a single Dunk throughout the season.

[MmP]

Oh the Thiago thing is getting old. We still don't know how he's gonna play. The Manu Ginobilis who come the league and becames a top 5 at his position does not happen often.

[benefactor]

I still don't understand why people are so convinced of this. We've never had Splitter on the Spurs before, and have always done fine. Maybe not championship-great, but very good. Either way, the Spurs are likely to return ALL of the key players on a very good team, Jefferson is likely to be more comfortable in his role, Blair and Hill could well be even better, and no Splitter means the entire MLE is available to sign another solid veteran. The Spurs can be very good next year with or without Splitter.
I was speaking from a championship contending standpoint. I agree that this is still a good team even without Splitter.

[greyforest]

MORE OF THE SAME

8<--------------thread------------------

[Supreme_Being]

Oh the Thiago thing is getting old. We still don't know how he's gonna play. The Manu Ginobilis who come the league and becames a top 5 at his position does not happen often.

Oh I don't know. Considering he's the one of the top, if the the top centre in Europe, I think 'well', would be a safe bet.

[Phenomanul]

I see the people have too high expectations about Splitter, but don't think that he can be more than 9 pts 5 rebs player in his first year. He's not a very good rebounder even in Europe and you can be very sure that he won't have more than 7 rebs average in his NBA career.

It would be nice for us if Splitter joins. But it's obvious that he's not enough alone. We need a good three-pointer who can shoot well from the corners.(I don't know, Kapano, Korver...) If we spend all MLE to Splitter, we will have only LLE or veteran minimum to gather a player like that; and I'm doubtful that we can find it.


He's averaging more rebounds than Luis Scola did in the Spanish League (same league for comparison)...

Scola is an above average rebounder in the NBA. This statement alone doesn't necessarily mean that Splitter will rebound as well in the NBA... I'm just trying to point out that the numbers between the two leagues don't translate directly... the glaring difference being that the games aren't of comparable duration (40 minutes vs. 48 minutes).

[Pistons < Spurs]

Do you guys think at this stage of his career, Pop limits his playing time closer to the 25-27 minutes a game range?

[MateoNeygro]

Point is. With Splitter I think the Spurs would be made better instantly.

[Da Spurs]

How about he starts making his free throws.

[rascal]

I still don't understand why people are so convinced of this. We've never had Splitter on the Spurs before, and have always done fine. Maybe not championship-great, but very good. Either way, the Spurs are likely to return ALL of the key players on a very good team, Jefferson is likely to be more comfortable in his role, Blair and Hill could well be even better, and no Splitter means the entire MLE is available to sign another solid veteran. The Spurs can be very good next year with or without Splitter.

The spurs will not be good if they continue playing Bonner and McDyess as their top frontcourt players outside of Duncan.

[temujin]

14 and 8, 25 mpg.

Where can I sign?