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05-19-2010, 10:01 AM
Your In-Depth Reference Guide To Mavs Summer Shopping
It's A Wedding Planner: The DUST Chip, Double-Dipping, LeBron And Dirk
By David Lord -- DB.com
Where are the Mavs as they start the summer? Amid the sound of the season’s wedding bells, our analysis of the Mavs can be summarized by a nuptials tradition: it’s all about something old, something new, something borrowed, and something blue.
Or, if you prefer: We’ll label each of the following sections thusly: The DUST Chip; Double-Dipping, Dallas-LeBron; and Dirk.
THE DUST CHIP – SOMETHING OLD
Let’s start by taking a fresh look at Something Old: the long-awaited use of The DUST Chip this summer. How and why would it work? And what does it not do? A quick primer and review.
What is The DUST Chip? It’s our long-standing name for a potential use for Erick Dampier’s unusual contract. It’s different from the normal NBA contract in that its final year is sizable (over $13M) but not guaranteed. As a result, he can be waived at any time and his team won’t owe him another cent – meaning he can instantly be erased from a team’s payroll and salary cap, like dust blowing away.
Why makes The DUST Chip potentially a biggie? The primary factor is its flexibility. In the NBA, much of what happens centers around money issues, i.e., salary-cap and luxury-tax issues. Having a tool that will provide some team the ability to instantly erase more than $13M from their cap has the potential to do a lot of different things.
The most commonly mentioned use for DUST would be as a tool in a chase for a free agent. Here’s how it would work:
Let’s say Sammy Superstar decides he wants a new team because he feels his old team will never be able to surround him with enough talent to win a title. (Aren’t we seeing this drama being played out on multiple stages?) This summer, unlike most, there will be teams everywhere with enough cap room to offer a max contract, and his old team might face the likely prospect of losing Sammy Superstar in free agency while getting nothing back at all. And teams without cap room will also be trying to woo Sammy, hoping his old team will let him leave via a Sign-and-Trade (SNT) which would provide some sort of lesser-but-desirable compensation back to the old team.
But teams offering SNTs for max contract players often face a too-huge obstacle: NBA rules require that teams over the cap send the old team fairly equal salary. If matching salary includes too much talent leaving, Sammy won't want to come to a crippled team, but if the matching salary has lots of players with big salary but little talent, the old team is likely to refuse. And for some teams, with the attractive prizes available in the summer of 2010, their biggest preference might be open up cap room to sign a free agent from somewhere else. In that case, matching salary from a SNT would get in their way, so it would be better for them to simply let him walk.
And if Dallas wants Sammy, since they have no cap room their only avenue would be via a SNT.
However The DUST Chip simply erases those types of problems for Dallas. By using DUST for the salary match:
a) the Mavs can take back a salary up to $16.4475M (which is within $125,000 of a max contract for Lebron, Wade, or Bosh)
b) the Mavs would not have to gut their roster of talent in order to match the required salary, and
c) the old team would simply waive Dampier and end up with no salary added to their cap.
Of course that wouldn’t be the whole deal. Offering DUST alone leaves the old team with no salary – and with no value gained. But in its simplest form, the Mavs could package DUST with a first-round pick (or two) and perhaps some cash, and the old team is getting picks and cash and no added salary for a player it was going to lose anyhow.
How likely is it that any team would actually try to trade for Erick Dampier, with a $13M contract? This is the most confusing part of the situation, but the team receiving Dampier is not trading to keep Dampier. He is being included only because the trade rules require matching salary, and with a non-guaranteed salary, once he’s waived his salary will be completely erased from their cap (unless the season has already begun).
Wouldn’t a player avoid something this complicated in looking for a new team? Nope. DUST may seem complicated to the casual observer when used in this fashion, but it’s merely a SNT similar to any other. In fact, when a player is going to leave, the SNT method is preferable over a straight free agent signing in allowing an extra year and bigger raises, and because it holds a way for a player to potentially get more money in otherwise unlikely scenarios, every top-level player agent already knows about DUST in considering the angles for his client this summer.
Will the Mavs have any leverage with the old team, or with the free agent, because they have the DUST chip? Nope, unfortunately not. Nothing can force a player to come to Dallas if he doesn’t want to, and the old team doesn’t have to ever accept a SNT.
However the uniqueness of DUST could be the tie-breaker with two teams competing for the same player …or it could bring a desirable player to the Mavs’ door. Rest assured that every NBA GM knows about the flexibility offered by DUST. If Sammy Superstar is going to leave his old team anyhow, the fact that the Mavs can offer a no-salary SNT could entice the old team to try to get him to go to the Mavs where they know they can get something with no baggage (picks and/or cash) for nothing (i.e., no salary added) if the Mavs want him.
In fact, this could even be conceived as an afterthought deal. What if the old team sees Sammy Superstar ready to sign with another team where they’ll lose him for absolutely nothing? What if the team he was considering was a big rival in their conference, or even their long-time division nemesis? In such a situation, they could recruit Dallas. "Hey, we're about to lose Sammy for nothing. We don't want any of the SNT offers we're getting and we don’t want him on our rival. Send us That DUST Chip with something for our trouble, and we'll try to help get him to Dallas."
How else could DUST be used? If the Mavs can’t get a free agent they like using DUST, some other possibilities are:
a) to find a team looking to give away some talent to have more spending room in free agency
b) become a third team in a SNT where one of the teams needs to shed salary to make the deal work and pick up some valued talent for DUST, or
c) find a team looking to trade away some talent for DUST because their payroll/cap is too high.
What’s the most likely obstacle that could keep DUST from being used? Player salary vs. value, in regards to the players it makes available. In a free agent situation, DUST could be used to SNT for any player from as small as the MLE (if properly structured) to almost a $16.5M salary. Or in taking a player in trade from another team simply to reduce their cap, it could work for any player or set of players with a salary between (in round numbers) $10.3M and $16.5M. But the Mavs are not going to be interested in adding payroll just because they can, especially at those numbers.
But what about Player X? I don’t think DUST will work with his old team, so it’s not that valuable after all, right? Of course not every team with a star free agent will automatically want such a deal. Sammy's old team might demand more talent than the Mavs can (or want to) offer in exchange for any SNT, could always refuse all SNT options, and might even be able to persuade Sammy to stay.
But keep in mind that Sammy will be choosing his destination. (Let’s say that again: Sammy will go where he chooses to go, and DUST by itself is just a helpful tool that makes the Mavs a suitor alongside many others.) While not every free agent would make Dallas his choice, often it's not who can offer his old team the most, but rather who can find the best way to balance the old team's interests and also those of Sammy. The flexibility of The DUST Chip makes a difficult task much easier and could give Dallas a helpful advantage.
Most importantly, it’s not necessary for DUST to work on every star free agent in 2010. The Mavs only need for it to work with one player, one time, on one free agent that the Mavs really want.
DALLAS DOUBLE-DIPPING – SOMETHING NEW
Double-dipping is our Something New to consider.
Prior to the Mavs’ deadline trade that brought Caron Butler, fans discussions on DB.com Boards and elsewhere about DUST typically saw the Mavs combining all their goodies into “DUST + Roddy B + picks” to make an attractive SNT package for Sammy. After the trade, Butler – expected to be redundant after being supplanted by Sammy – was added to the mix and it became “DUST + Roddy B + picks + Butler.”
But something was lost in translation. Does that package make sense as a DUST deal? No.
As outlined above, the value of DUST is the way it could allow Sammy’s old team to end up with taking back virtually no salary at all. But once Butler is added, the deal becomes a $25M monster for each team. Sammy’s old team could end up taking almost $13M in salary from Dallas, or if the trade is structured a different way to try to max out savings for Sammy’s old team, the Mavs are potentially taking back in excess of $31M - about 60 percent of the cap - in one single trade. Yikes.
What’s gone unnoticed is this: the pairing of Butler and Roddy B by themselves actually can do what “The DUST Chip’’ does - it almost trade-matches Sammy's max salary. So if the Mavs are already on the edge of matching Sammy with just Butler and Roddy alone, why include DUST and match Sammy a second time? Adding DUST at that point makes it an almost wasted asset.
So let’s figure it this way - once Butler arrived, the dynamics of the Mavs’ thinking about DUST and the summer certainly had to change. The pieces now fit differently – and in a much more flexible way.
There is on the horizon the potential for more than one deal. Rather, we could be about to watch the Mavs have a try at double-dipping.
In that case, how would DUST be used? In one possibility, it provides a way to add flexibility into a singular Sign-and-Trade negotiation, where the Mavs will have the potential to offer several very different trade choices at once to the old team.
For instance:
*Do you, Team X, want talent? Here ya go, you get a two-time All-Star (Butler) with a very friendly expiring contract, a youngster with worlds of upside (Roddy B) on rookie scale, a small expiring contract, and two No. 1 picks.
*Oh wait, Team X, you prefer cap space immediately to spend in free agency and don't want players? Fine! Then here's Roddy and two No. 1’s, with Dampier's instantly vanishing contract providing all the filler and keeping your cap room intact.
*Ah, Team X, you want us to take back a bit of salary too? Let's combine a bit of DUST here, or a bigger expiring there, and decide what talent makes most sense, in a mix-‘n’-match manner.
Whereas before there was essentially one attractive SNT offer for the Mavs to make, now there are several different angles that can be negotiated. And what becomes of DUST if they take the more traditional first choice, Caron/Roddy/expiring/picks, instead of actually using Dampier's contract in such a deal? Or what becomes of Butler, if they take the cheaper second choice?
Wow, what Summer of 2010 day that would be! Because in that event, the Mavs would still have The DUST Chip, or an expiring former All-Star, to spend elsewhere as needed!
Yessir, you read that right. Here are some of the ensuing options they'd have with DUST:
* The Mavs might dip back into free agency and find another use for DUST.
* But it wouldn't necessarily have to be a max deal. If the contract is structured properly, it could be:
a) used for a max player
b) used for one signed at the MLE for max years in free agency, or
c) for anything in between.
* The Mavs could use it to erase a contract for someone who desperately wants more cap room. … Instantly.
* Or, if someone needs added spending room as free agency is unfolding, they can bribe the Mavs with picks to get DUST in trade for existing salary and talent.
Wait, there’s one more interesting possibility!
What if the Mavs use Butler and/or Roddy B to get what they want, and don't need DUST at all in the summer? Then they could "save" their DUST. How? By trading Dampier and a bit of cash (as a tip) to another team who has enough cap room to take him for a conditional future second-rounder. The other team would immediately get their cap room back after waiving Dampier. And for the Mavs, it would create a Trade Exception of $13+M which in essence would allow them to come back later -- for up to a year -- and use a tad smaller modified version of DUST when it may be needed, either all at once or in pieces.
Worth noting, we think: There will be readers who review our take on Double-Dipping and accuse us of excessive optimism. Please remember, we’re not handicapping the Mavs’ chances of pulling these deals off; we’re simply taking inventory on the available ammunition and reporting on how Dallas can try to fire off its bullets.
THE MAVS AND LeBRON JAMES – SOMETHING BORROWED
And speaking of perceived optimism …
Something Borrowed? How about “stealing’’ rather than “borrowing’’ …with the target being another star coming to Dallas to play alongside Dirk?
We’ll start with a mention of LeBron James because his earlier-than-expected ouster from the playoffs has changed everything with him. He’s no longer a semi-lock to return to the Cavs, as their future suddenly looks bereft of titles. And make no mistake, Lebron has to win numerous titles to claim the legacy he desires. Without them, he merely becomes the Wilt Chamberlain of his generation.
He's just 25. Yet in one sense, time is getting away from him and by the time he finishes the contract he signs this summer, he will have completed 12-to-13 NBA seasons. If he doesn’t pick a place where he ends up a winner, how will he be viewed at that point?
Also on every wish list is Dwyane Wade, who’s thought by some to be committed to a return to Miami yet claims his bigger priority is playing for a winner. If Amare Stoudemire returns to Phoenix, Carlos Boozer goes back to Utah, and Chris Bosh decides he has no desire to play in Wade’s huge shadow in Miami, what then for Wade?
Bosh is definitely in play as a SNT target with the Raptors said to be thinking that way, Joe Johnson is openly looking for the biggest payday he can get after a less-than-sterling playoff performance in Atlanta, and who knows what else.
The question to be asked is this: do the Mavs have a real shot at this type of player this summer, with DUST or by some other SNT package? Where does reality stop and fantasy begin in all of this? A few points to keep in mind as this unfolds.
First of all, since the Mavs don’t have any actual cap space, can they really be players in free agency this summer? While nothing can be guaranteed in advance, we certainly think so … as do the Mavs and many long-time NBA experts. The reason is that this summer is the first in NBA history that has many teams with cap room to offer a max salary, the game’s biggest stars as free agents, and desirable fan markets all in the mix. With that combination, stars will be able to pick almost any destination they want, either via max spending room by suitors or by the ability to leverage that into a SNT as needed. If the Mavs want to add talent, it will come down to their ability to sell the team, the city, their future, and other things to the player(s) they target.
And for most of the top free agents (LBJ, Wade, Bosh, JJ), the old team has one more motivation to work with the Mavs – they’ll prefer to get the player out of the Eastern Conference, so they won’t have to compete with them. The only way they can steer that destination is through the use of the SNT process.
Since Cleveland can offer LeBron about $125M while other teams can only offer him about $95M without a SNT, doesn’t that give the Cavs enough leverage to keep him? We don’t think so, for four very specific reasons.
1. As a general principle, a team won’t come out ahead with their star by using financial penalties to try to FORCE him to play there when he really doesn’t want to. That is a bad business practice.
2. While the $125M/$95M numbers make a great story, they aren’t the final difference. The $125M is a number that includes a sixth year, and when LeBron eventually gets that sixth year after a $95M deal, the total with the right deal will get him past $120M.
3. As a GM this deal may be the last time you deal with that player, but every GM will tell you that each deal has to be done with the next one in mind, because the agent involved may represent the next 10 players you want on your team. If (as he sees it) you were willing to cut off your own nose to take money out of the pocket of him and his client, he won’t forget it.
4. And finally and most importantly for LeBron in particular, he has to go to a team where he can win titles. If he’s not convinced that team will be Cleveland, all the hardball is for nothing.
If Dallas can successfully recruit LeBron or someone similar, and the old team is willing to do a SNT, what must it cost? Can the Mavs keep Roddy B? Or Butler? Can’t they make a low offer since the old team will be getting something they wouldn’t otherwise have? This is a trade where the only way for either side to lose is to fail to make the deal; the Mavs win at almost any cost by getting a superstar, and the old team wins at almost any price by getting something of value back instead of losing their star for nothing. There’s a massive amount of wiggle room.
There will be a few factors guiding any negotiations. Since DUST keeps the Mavs from forcing unwanted salary on the other team for the trade match, the accompanying value needed might tend to be less than if the other team had to take some useless payroll. But the Mavs’ offers can’t get so low that the old team would rather have absolutely nothing than what is being offered. And the old team can’t demand more than a consolation prize, with the player a free agent and having the ability to go elsewhere without any compensation coming back at all.
Since Dallas hasn’t won a title, how would they attract a player like LeBron who is intent on finding an ideal place to win? If we’re Mark Cuban, our pitch goes like this:
“Lebron, you need to go win titles that are seen as yours. You don’t want to do that in a place that already is at the top where you just jump on the bandwagon. Instead, come to Dallas ...it’s the perfect spot to land because we’ve been close, Dirk’s already here and has an unselfish game perfectly suited to match yours, and you can be the hero that gets us to the final rung. We have everything else already in place to win titles except a giant hole needing a shot-creating scorer from the wing. And the minute you sign with the Mavs, you and Dirk on the same team will make Dallas a two-superstar team with the ability to win titles.”
Is there anything else about the Mavs that might attract LeBron? Or others? Cuban and the Mavs have a league-wide reputation of being a great organization for players. Excellent facilities, lots of other little perks, they add up and make a difference. Players notice.
But there’s one wild card that might prove an even bigger magnet to the big egos atop the NBA star list. How would they view the opportunity to be the center attraction at Cowboys Stadium several times a year, in an extravaganza like the All-Star Game? It would take the right player to make it a big enough attraction – but if you see yourself as the game’s biggest star, do you let anyone else take that stage away from you if it’s on the table?
Fish has pointed this out before, and I second the notion: Yes, LeBron is a Yankees fan. So in New York, they talk of enlisting Derek Jeter and the like to recruit him. But LeBron is also a Cowboys fan. There is nothing like Cowboys Stadium. There is nobody who sells like Jerry Jones. Yes, LeBron has a chance to “be a Jeter’’ in New York. But he has a chance to “be a Staubach’’ in Dallas.
We don’t know what will push LeBron over which edge (in fact, we think those pretending to know at this early stage are frauds). But we know the Mavs have the ammunition and the recruiting tools to be in the bidding.
DIRK AND DALLAS – SOMETHING BLUE
Now let’s put things into perspective. Despite the anticipation of what The DUST Chip might do, perhaps even double-dipping, and the intriguing idea that LeBron could change teams this summer (and, who knows, maybe could even end up in Dallas), those items aren’t the biggie for the Mavs right now.
Re-signing Dirk is really the one thing that matters. In fact, it’s the only thing.
Why? Because if Dirk leaves, we can forget the idea of another superstar being enticed to come to Dallas in free agency to chase a title with him. And with no superstar and no title chase, would Mark Cuban ramp up the payroll and use The DUST Chip to add the best leftover player possible, knowing the result is likely to produce a team whose max potential might be 50 wins or fewer? No way.
But when the summer started, that was not a worry. The view from here said Dirk’s return was more or less a given, and he would sign an extension early in order to give the Mavs a better resume’ in chasing enticing free agents with The DUST Chip.
Unfortunately for us, the ink was barely dry on our article (darn that optimism!) when Cuban announced that Dirk might wait to see what would happen in free agency in order to figure out what kind of deal he wanted with the Mavs. We don’t know exactly what the conversations were behind that statement, but it broadly hinted at a disturbing development: rather than sign an extension before free agency, Dirk was going to opt out of his contract and make his decision later.
Obviously Cuban put the best possible spin on the news, with the angle that Dirk was merely in wait-n-see mode on how to sign with the Mavs. And then came news of ongoing negotiations and DallasBasketball.com’s one-on-one visit with GM Donnie Nelson, in which Nelson stated Dallas’ plan to give Nowitzki everything he “deserves.’’
Our original prediction of an extension getting done by early June still has plenty of time to get done. But, based on what Cuban himself told us, are we in for a long wait just to see if the good times are about to end with the departure of Dirk from a Dallas uniform?
And if Dirk’s return is a question mark on July 1, what does that do to the Mavs opportunities to attract appealing free agents this summer even if he eventually returns?
Donnie tells us: “People understand what our thinking is, and each team gains an understanding for what other teams are thinking,’’ he says. “Dirk has the freedom to do what he wishes here. But even if for some reason he does opt-out, that does not really reduce our chances of making any moves that we find to be opportunistic.’’
Still ... the fact that this issue is dangling at all? Ouch. Color me (Something) Blue.
But wait, you say. Even if Dirk leaves in free agency, can’t the Mavs get something back in a Sign-and-Trade? Perhaps so … but if Dirk leaves, he’ll be headed to a team ready to win, so there won’t be a superstar coming back. If lucky the Mavs might get a raw kid or two that might have some promise, a draft pick or two, and then there would have to be some veteran salary to make the salaries match and that ideally would only last a year. And that would be the best-case scenario.
But that’s only a worry for now. Something Blue is being set aside for another day, to examine further only if we sense it is truly happening. Until then, we say Dirk’s coming back, and it’s a summer of DUST, of Double-Dipping, and of Guess Who’s Coming to Dallas?
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