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View Full Version : Maybe we shouldn't clean up the oil spill



DarrinS
05-19-2010, 06:06 PM
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2010/05/19/2010-05-19_maybe_we_shouldnt_clean_up_the_oil_spill.html





As we all well know, the cost of doing nothing is steep. That's why the phrase, "cost of doing nothing" exists, presumably.

So whenever some crisis arises, no one wants to be perceived as insensitive to the high price of inaction by suggesting that we wait and see, slow down or let things play out. Instead, we're all very quick to say, in desperate but authoritative voices, "Well, we have to do something."

After the 2008 financial collapse "the cost of doing nothing" was all anyone wanted to talk about.

We didn't know exactly what to do, but we knew that doing nothing wasn't an option. So in the end, we decided to throw a catastrophic amount of money at the problem. And good thing, too - otherwise, I'm told, unemployment might have surpassed 8%.

When it comes to the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, it seems that doing nothing is even farther outside the parameters of politically acceptable suggestions.

But since I don't have a re-election to worry about, I'm happy to go out on a ledge and be the one to say it, terrible as it sounds: Let's leave the oil right where it is.

Before you send Al Gore's minions out to arrest me, you should know that this seemingly cavalier suggestion isn't borne out of apathy or indifference, but out of pragmatism and, yes, compassion. And though I'm no oil or environmental expert, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that attempting to clean up the Deepwater Horizon spill that dumped around 95,000 barrels of oil into the Gulf will be costly and ineffective, and might even be more harmful to the natural habitat than the oil itself.

So I did a little probing - or drilling, as it were - into the consequences of doing nothing. Here's what I found:
Decades after the Exxon Valdez spill, the technology used to clean up spills is virtually unchanged: barges, booms, burning, dispersing, scrubbing.

"The basic tool kit hasn't changed dramatically, or at all," said Jeff Short, a scientist with the environmental group Oceana.

The problem with that is, these methods weren't effective then, and they aren't now. Dispersants, for one, transfer oil particles from the sea surface to the sea water in an effort to save shorelines from oil build-up. In theory, anyway.

It only works if there's significant wave energy, and even in that case, the oil that's transferred to the water column is hazardous to hundreds of other organisms.

Cornell University biologist Robert Howarth told me that dispersants should be used very sparingly, and that there are better, less toxic alternatives to the 250,000 gallons of Corexit that BP has already released into the Gulf


But other chemicals used to "clean" the spill can wreak even more havoc on an already weakened ecosystem. Terry Hazen, an ecologist in Berkeley Lab's Earth Sciences Division, pointed out that oil is, in fact, a biological product that naturally degrades over time: "Some of the detergents that are typically used to clean-up spill sites are more toxic than the oil itself, in which case it would be better to leave the site alone and allow microbes to do what they do best."

Cleaning off oil-slicked birds may sound warm and fuzzy, but it isn't. In fact, German biologist Silvia Gaus, of the Wattenmeer National Park, is one of a number of experts who say that putting the birds down would be more humane.

"Kill, don't clean," she says. "According to serious studies, the middle-term survival rate of oil-soaked birds is under 1%. We, therefore, oppose cleaning birds."

Then, of course, there's the crass subject of money, which no one likes to talk about unless of course it concerns the "cost of doing nothing." But the fact is, BP has already spent $625 million on spill response, and experts suggest the spill could cost them as much as $14 billion.

While some of that is going toward containment efforts - stopping the spill from getting worse, which is critical - wouldn't it be something if the money BP was dumping into cleanup efforts was directed instead to Louisiana's ailing fishing industry, which is going to lose $2.5 billion?

Or to Florida's hemorrhaging tourism industry, which will be drained of $3 billion?

BP has, thus far, given Florida a mere $25 million, and $15 million each to Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi for recovery efforts.

In this economy, that's a drop in the bucket.

So if cleanup is costly, ineffective and potentially harmful, then aren't we just doing it for appearances? (And not actual appearances, but, worse, political appearances?) Indeed, if we can just get over the way it sounds, "the cost of doing nothing" might actually be far less than the cost of doing something.

RandomGuy
05-20-2010, 09:04 AM
the Deepwater Horizon spill that dumped around 95,000 barrels of oil into the Gulf

95000/5000= 19 days.


Steven Wereley, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University, analyzed videotape of the seafloor gusher using a technique called particle image velocimetry.

Contract workers load oil booms onto a boat to protect marshlands from the massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico on May 13, 2010 in Hopedale, Louisiana. The BP Deepwater Horizon oil rig continues to leak what may be an unprecedented amount of oil and gas into U.S. waters.
A computer program simply tracks particles and calculates how fast they are moving. Wereley put the BP video of the gusher into his computer. He made a few simple calculations and came up with an astonishing value for the rate of the oil spill: 70,000 barrels a day — much higher than the official estimate of 5,000 barrels a day.

The method is accurate to a degree of plus or minus 20 percent.

Given that uncertainty, the amount of material spewing from the pipe could range from 56,000 barrels to 84,000 barrels a day. It is important to note that it's not all oil. The short video BP released starts out with a shot of methane, but at the end it seems to be mostly oil.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126809525&ps=cprs

1) The flow of oil still has not stopped.
2) The flow of oil seems likely to be 10-15 times larger than previous estimates.

Given the above estimate of 70,000 barrels a day that gives us a total of:

70,000*19=1,330,000 barrels of oil, and counting.


On May 19, BP announced that they were recovering about 3,000 barrels per day...

Meaning that if their previous estimate were correct, and so far BP has refused any requests for independent access to assess the actual rate, they are sucking out 60% of what they say it is leaking. We will see pretty quickly if their efforts have had any noticable effect. If not then they will have been caught in a rather big lie, from which their credibility will suffer irreversably.

The Ixtoc spill, by comparison leaked 3M barrels. So if the larger estimates are correct, we are already 1/3 the way there, and we have gone waaaay past the 250,000 barrels of the Exxon Valdez.


Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University used a computer analysis (particle image velocimetry) to arrive at a rate of 70,000 barrels (2,900,000 US gallons; 11,000,000 litres) per day (plus or minus 20%).[73][74] However, after watching newly released video, on May 19 he said, "I can't say how much in excess of that 70,000 this leak is, but I would use the word 'considerable'".

http://www2.counton2.com/cbd/news/local/article/oil_from_the_gulf_could_reach_loop_current/138990/

I think there is enough evidence to say that the flow of oil is very likely to be massively larger than the 2,000 bbls/day that the original estimate now pegs as flowing into the gulf. (5000 orginal minus the 3000 BP says it is pumping out)

This does not invalidate the OP's original point though.

One must consider the costs to benefits of clean ups.

If we literally can't make a dent in the oil, and it appears as though our best efforts are doing fuckall at this point, we could use the money much more wisely.

The thing is that the larger the estimation of the amount of oil out there, the more valid this guys argument is.

What we can't know is what the effects of our effort really will be in the long run.

It is a hard call. I think that we should severely limit the toxic dispersants from being used. That seems to be adding to the problem. Use less toxic stuff to help break this up.

I think it is fairly prudent to concentrate our efforts where it would do the most good, i.e. places with substantial fishing industries.

I also think the OP has a pretty valid point that should be given some consideration.

boutons_deux
05-20-2010, 09:12 AM
BP clears about $20B+/year.

BP can both afford the blocking and abandoning of the well, AND the entire cleanup costs.

DarrinS
05-20-2010, 09:59 AM
The Ixtoc spill, by comparison leaked 3M barrels. So if the larger estimates are correct, we are already 1/3 the way there, and we have gone waaaay past the 250,000 barrels of the Exxon Valdez.


I don't really like comparisons to Valdez, simply because is was heavy crude and it was spilled in an relatively small body of water.


The thing that irritates me most about this spill is there is apparently no good contingency plan to cap the damn thing. With so much invested, it seems really stupid to not have a good contingency plan. I wonder if BP even backs up their computer systems?


That said, it seems to me that all efforts should be on plugging the leak and not so much on all this skimming.

boutons_deux
05-20-2010, 10:03 AM
"it seems really stupid to not have a good contingency plan"

no, it IS criminally greedy to fail to spend the money and time to be safe. BP wanted to pocket that money.

Just another indictment of BP (and the entire oil industry, and the willful compliance of the Repugs to enable oil industry fuckups), there are many:

Whistleblower Sues to Stop Another BP Rig From Operating

http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/146903

How Bush's DOJ Killed a Criminal Probe Into BP That Threatened to Net Top Officials

http://www.truthout.org/how-bushs-doj-killed-a-criminal-probe-into-bp-that-threatened-net-top-officials59648?print

RandomGuy
05-20-2010, 10:05 AM
Meaning that if their previous estimate were correct, and so far BP has refused any requests for independent access to assess the actual rate, they are sucking out 60% of what they say it is leaking. We will see pretty quickly if their efforts have had any noticable effect. If not then they will have been caught in a rather big lie, from which their credibility will suffer irreversably.

http://www2.counton2.com/cbd/news/local/article/oil_from_the_gulf_could_reach_loop_current/138990/

I think there is enough evidence to say that the flow of oil is very likely to be massively larger than the 2,000 bbls/day that the original estimate now pegs as flowing into the gulf. (5000 orginal minus the 3000 BP says it is pumping out)

Looks like we didn't have to wait for long:




NEW ORLEANS – BP conceded Thursday that more oil than it estimated is gushing into the Gulf of Mexico...

Mark Proegler, a spokesman for oil giant BP PLC, said a mile-long tube inserted into a leaking pipe over the weekend is now capturing 210,000 gallons a day — the total amount the company and the Coast Guard have estimated is gushing into the sea — but some is still escaping. He would not say how much.

Oopsies.

(FYI one barrel = 42 gallons, so 210,000 = 5,000)

RandomGuy
05-20-2010, 10:16 AM
BP clears about $20B+/year.

BP can both afford the blocking and abandoning of the well, AND the entire cleanup costs.

Also a good point.

Especially given the distinct possibility that BP and TransOcean will be found to be negligent for the fuckups that led to this.

BP = 239Bn/year (26BN profit 2009) (yeah, thats right two hundred and thirty nine billion dollars in revenue in 2009, look it up on their website)
TransOcean = 12Bn/Year (3Bn profit 2009)
Haliburton = 15Bn/Year (1Bn profit 2009)

Total profit of well operators for 2009: 30BN (give or take a few hundred million)

These companies can afford to pay for this, and STILL be profitable.

That alone makes holding their feet to the fire for clean up efforts not altogether unreasonable.

balli
05-20-2010, 10:59 AM
I don't really give a fuck of BP can afford it or not. I get what you guys are saying, but at the end of the day, who gives a fuck about BP's bottom line in America besides the neo-confederates and investor class? This cleanup could completely bankrupt the company and all its stock holders for all I care.

boutons_deux
05-20-2010, 11:07 AM
Magic Negro could seize BPs assets :)

DarrinS
05-20-2010, 11:08 AM
I don't really give a fuck of BP can afford it or not. I get what you guys are saying, but at the end of the day, who gives a fuck about BP's bottom line in America besides the neo-confederates and investor class? This cleanup could completely bankrupt the company and all its stock holders for all I care.


LOL @ the "investor class". Do you have a 401(k)?

boutons_deux
05-20-2010, 11:12 AM
http://www.truthout.org/whistlelower-bps-other-offshore-drilling-project-gulf-vulnerable-catastrophe59027?print

balli
05-20-2010, 11:13 AM
LOL @ the "investor class". Do you have a 401(k)?

Not one tied to British fucking Petroleum's stock price.

RandomGuy
05-20-2010, 11:19 AM
Not one tied to British fucking Petroleum's stock price.

Most stock in the US is held by retirement plans of one sort or another.

Personally I don't see a problem either if BP went bankrupt from this.

BUT

The average stockholder is pretty much anybody who has saved even a little for their retirement.

As I noted in another thread it seems that the retirement investmetn managers that actually do represent a some BIG money are finally starting to stand up for themselves.

If I were a shareholder of BP, I would be pissed, and would definitely have joined the shareholder lawsuit.