Hall of Fame?

[MateoNeygro]

I was playing NBA2K10 and they said LeBron was a first ballot Hall of Famer even if his career ended today(God forbid) So my question is, if these following guys careers ended today, who would and who wouldn't be Hall of Famers???

1. LeBron
2. D. Howard
3. Wade
4. Carmelo
5. Durant
6. CP3
7. D-Will
8. Yao
9. Amare
10. Vince Carter

[lefty]

All of them

[Muser]

None. If LeBron gets in then so should Grant Hill.

[mogrovejo]

2 times MVP, 4 All-NBA 1st teams, 2 All-NBA 2nd team, 2 All-Defense 1st teams, 6 All-Stars, +15000 points, 4000 rebounds and 4000 assists, some incredible playoff success, scoring title. Yeah, not only he's already in, he's a first ballot.

Who else? Wade would be another 100% first ballot entry.

I think that's all. Carter would have an outside chance, but he'd fall short. He needs a championship and a couple of seasons at high-level. None of the others would sniff it.

[Spur_Fanatic]

1. LeBron (has to win something before...)
2. D. Howard
3. Wade (the title helps, he probably will get in)
4. Carmelo
5. Durant
6. CP3
7. D-Will
8. Yao (No, but he probably will)
9. Amare (No)
10. Vince Carter (He will, but I don't have to like it).

To be honest, how many of these players you will remember in 40 years?
Probably only Lebron, and only if he goes MJ on the league.

[JamStone]

As of right now, only LeBron.

[scanry]

Lebron and Wade would obviously be first ballot HOF'ers. The rest need haven't earned done enough.

BTW i don't think Carmelo, Yao, Carter and Amare will ever make it to the hall of fame...

[scanry]

As of right now, only LeBron.

I think Wade would be automatic!!!

[Bob Lanier]

Yao is easily a Hall of Famer.

[mogrovejo]

I think Wade would be automatic!!!

Of course: All-American, jersey retired at Marquette, triple double in the NCAA tournament, Olympic gold, 1 championship as the best player in his team, Finals MVP, 5 All-NBA teams, 6 All-Star, 3 All-Defense teams, scoring champion, all-time scoring/assist leader for the Miami Heat, averaging 26/6/5 for his career, 12000 points scored, a season with a +30 PER. Could retire tomorrow and he'd still be in.

[mogrovejo]

Yao is easily a Hall of Famer.

Why?

[mogrovejo]

NBA & ABA Active Leaders and Records for Hall of Fame Probability


http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000
2. Kobe Bryant 0.9999
3. Tim Duncan 0.9998
4. Allen Iverson 0.9977
5. Kevin Garnett 0.9971
6. LeBron James 0.9801
7. Dwyane Wade 0.9758
8. Paul Pierce 0.9535
9. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9105
10. Jason Kidd 0.9073
11. Ray Allen 0.9072
12. Vince Carter 0.8662
13. Tracy McGrady 0.7476
14. Tony Parker 0.5183
15. Grant Hill 0.4794
16. Gilbert Arenas 0.4569
17. Chris Bosh 0.4305
18. Amare Stoudemire 0.4246
19. Carmelo Anthony 0.4078
20. Steve Nash 0.3654
21. Dwight Howard 0.2877
22. Pau Gasol 0.2361
23. Chauncey Billups 0.2162
24. Shawn Marion 0.2111
25. Elton Brand 0.1586
26. Antawn Jamison 0.0861
27. Carlos Boozer 0.0842

[21_Blessings]

Gilbert Arenas :lmao

[MateoNeygro]

Good takes. I think if they all have pretty long careers, most of them would make it besides Vince.

[MateoNeygro]

NBA & ABA Active Leaders and Records for Hall of Fame Probability


http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000
2. Kobe Bryant 0.9999
3. Tim Duncan 0.9998
4. Allen Iverson 0.9977
5. Kevin Garnett 0.9971
6. LeBron James 0.9801
7. Dwyane Wade 0.9758
8. Paul Pierce 0.9535
9. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9105
10. Jason Kidd 0.9073
11. Ray Allen 0.9072
12. Vince Carter 0.8662
13. Tracy McGrady 0.7476
14. Tony Parker 0.5183
15. Grant Hill 0.4794
16. Gilbert Arenas 0.4569
17. Chris Bosh 0.4305
18. Amare Stoudemire 0.4246
19. Carmelo Anthony 0.4078
20. Steve Nash 0.3654
21. Dwight Howard 0.2877
22. Pau Gasol 0.2361
23. Chauncey Billups 0.2162
24. Shawn Marion 0.2111
25. Elton Brand 0.1586
26. Antawn Jamison 0.0861
27. Carlos Boozer 0.0842

I stand corrected about Vince.

[Bob Lanier]

Why?
Because he's a Chinaman.

[mogrovejo]

I stand corrected about Vince.

They're overrating Vince chances. Carter needs achievements beyond stats or a bigger body of work.

So far:

- In 12 years, only two All-NBA selections. One second team and one third team
- Never in the top ten in MVP voting
- No real team success until this season. Never got out of the second round before.
- Only made the playoffs in half of his seasons.

I think it's extremely likely he'll eventually make it because he'll still put up good numbers in the next couple of seasons + he's playing for a good team. He doesn't even need to win a tittle to get in. So yeah, unless something weird happens, he'll be a HoFer.

But if he retires today, I think there's a solid chance they'd left him out.

[mogrovejo]

Because he's a Chinaman.

So is Yi.

[Brazil]

where is Manu?

[ogait]

where is Manu?

#29 according to that bs list with 7,4 %... Elton Brand and Shawn Marion have a better chance to make it :lmao


NBA & ABA Active Leaders and Records for Hall of Fame Probability


http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

12. Vince Carter 0.8662


20. Steve Nash 0.3654


numbers aren't everything


Seriously Vince Carter is not a hall of famer

[Bob Lanier]

So is Yi.
Yi's level of "contributions to the game" is dwarfed by Yao's.

Put simply, if Drazen Petrovic is a Hall-of-Famer, so is Yao Ming.

[Brazil]

#29 according to that bs list with 7,4 %... Elton Brand and Shawn Marion have a better chance to make it :lmao



:lol

I don't how these % work but I guess they consider TP having more chances because he is younger but IMO Manu will be HOF and for me he has more chances than TP in particular with his international successes.

[JamStone]

I think Wade would be automatic!!!

I think he's automatic after he logs a few more NBA seasons. Right now, he's played 7 seasons in the NBA. Make it 10, and he's obviously a no-brainer.

I would have said the same thing about LeBron except for his 2 league MVPs.

[ogait]

:lol

I don't how these % work but I guess they consider TP having more chances because he is younger but IMO Manu will be HOF and for me he has more chances than TP in particular with his international successes.

Apparently they take into account these 7 factors


height (in inches)
last season indicator (1 if 1959-60 or before, 0 otherwise)
NBA points per game
NBA rebounds per game
NBA assists per game
NBA All-Star game selections
NBA championships won

Hey I like numbers, i work with them everyday but... mathematical models can be useful and all but certainly not for HOF selection.

[Ghazi]

4x all 1st team and 2 MVPs = lock for LeBron. already. :wow

<-----------

[monosylab1k]

lame

[IronMexican]

I would say LeBron and Wade

[SomeCallMeTim]

Apparently they take into account these 7 factors


height (in inches)
last season indicator (1 if 1959-60 or before, 0 otherwise)
NBA points per game
NBA rebounds per game
NBA assists per game
NBA All-Star game selections
NBA championships won

Hey I like numbers, i work with them everyday but... mathematical models can be useful and all but certainly not for HOF selection.

The people who put together that formula simply studied what criteria have historically been most predictive of selection... nothing more. They're not saying those criteria are valid. It's just a prediction model.

[mogrovejo]

The people who put together that formula simply studied what criteria have historically been most predictive of selection... nothing more. They're not saying those criteria are valid. It's just a prediction model.

Exactly.

[SomeCallMeTim]

:lol

I don't how these % work but I guess they consider TP having more chances because he is younger but IMO Manu will be HOF and for me he has more chances than TP in particular with his international successes.

Manu may not fit this formula very well because of where his NBA career fits in with his age. I agree that he may well end up in because of international play. I think he'd have to continue to play at a high level in the NBA though for it to happen.

He's a fantastic player but unfortunately people that don't get him would look at his numbers and think "role player." He isn't. I'd put him in above half the guys ahead of him on that list.

[MateoNeygro]

Manu should make it because of his international accomplishments. It's not the NBA Hall of Fame, it's the Basketball Hall of Fame. I'd argue that in worldwide basketball, Manu has had a larger impact than most other NBA players.

[mogrovejo]

Exactly, Manu is another first ballot but due to his international accomplishments. If it wasn't for that, he'd have no chance whatsoever of making the HoF if he was to retire now.

Same as Petrovic, who won 3 Olympic medals, 11 more World Cup/Eurobasket/etc medals, a dozen of club titles in FIBA basketball + lots of individual awards. Yao is a different case, he can make it due to his NBA career (I think he will, just not now) or he can always be elected as a contributor.

[ogait]

The people who put together that formula simply studied what criteria have historically been most predictive of selection... nothing more. They're not saying those criteria are valid. It's just a prediction model.

Sure I'm not saying it is not valid from a statistical point of view, i just don't think it fits on an actual basketball discussion about whether a player should or not go to the HOF.

[mogrovejo]

Sure I'm not saying it is not valid from a statistical point of view, i just don't think it fits on an actual basketball discussion about whether a player should or not go to the HOF.

If it has predictive power, why not?

[Muser]

I want Vince to get in, but I know he won't.

[Bob Lanier]

If it has predictive power, why not?
Hume's observation about ises and oughts comes to mind.

[mogrovejo]

Hume's observation about ises and oughts comes to mind.

Huh, why? How is this a is-ought problem?

[LnGrrrR]

At first glance I was surprised Ray Allen was 11th on the list... then I looked lower, and he's right where he should be, with one exception...

Steve Nash. His lack of playoff success will hurt him, but I don't think there's any chance he's not going to the Hall of Fame.

[Brazil]

Manu may not fit this formula very well because of where his NBA career fits in with his age. I agree that he may well end up in because of international play. I think he'd have to continue to play at a high level in the NBA though for it to happen.

He's a fantastic player but unfortunately people that don't get him would look at his numbers and think "role player." He isn't. I'd put him in above half the guys ahead of him on that list.

This is why I think the 7 stats are not a good predictive model, due to his international career he is more a lock than TP, Carter or Ray Allen.

[Brazil]

Steve Nash. His lack of playoff success will hurt him, but I don't think there's any chance he's not going to the Hall of Fame.

I agree I don't see a former MVP out of the HOF

[spursfaninla]

I agree I don't see a former MVP out of the HOF

former back to back mvp...

although, I still don't get how that is the case. Great player, but not 2-time mvp level.

HOw many does Kobe have?

[Brazil]

former back to back mvp...



u're right I almost forget just to say these mvps are a little * but anyway Nash is a lock for the HOF because of that.

[mogrovejo]

This is why I think the 7 stats are not a good predictive model, due to his international career he is more a lock than TP, Carter or Ray Allen.

It's called an outlier. It's not enough to make it a not good predictive model.

I think it's a pretty good predictive model - the best proof is that nobody has been able to build a more powerful one.

[Killakobe81]

chris Paul ...no not enough seasons .... but if he maintains at least 80% of his numbers for 5 more seasons he is in.

Marion No
Jamison No
Boozer No
Brand No

Everyone else I say they get in but VC is on the line of demarcation for me ...

[JamStone]

LeBron and Wade have just finished their 7th season in the league. LeBron's two league MVPs makes it impossible for him not to already be a lock for the HOF. And while I know Wade has been unbelievable and has a title and Finals MVP, if he were to retire today, as was the original question, I don't think he's a lock.

Vince Carter is a great example of why you can't just look at the first 7 seasons and know for sure that the player will live up to that standard the rest of his career. After 7 seasons, he might have even been more of a likely HOF candidate. But sometimes a player's career can turn. Or look at Grant Hill. Based on his NBA career (he might still get in for his college career), he has a very small probability of getting in the Hall. But if you evaluated his career after his first 6 seasons with Detroit and you went on to predict what he'd do the rest of his career, most people would have said he's well on his way to the HOF. But we all know his career got derailed by injury and now he's probably not getting in, based on his NBA resume.

That's why I don't think Wade is a lock right now. Obviously the title and Finals MVP give him a better shot than guys like VC after his first 7 seasons or Grant Hill after his 6 seasons, but to me, not a lock. Guys like Jo Jo White and Cedric Maxwell have Finals MVPs but are not and will not be HOFers.

[Killakobe81]

LeBron and Wade have just finished their 7th season in the league. LeBron's two league MVPs makes it impossible for him not to already be a lock for the HOF. And while I know Wade has been unbelievable and has a title and Finals MVP, if he were to retire today, as was the original question, I don't think he's a lock.

Vince Carter is a great example of why you can't just look at the first 7 seasons and know for sure that the player will live up to that standard the rest of his career. After 7 seasons, he might have even been more of a likely HOF candidate. But sometimes a player's career can turn. Or look at Grant Hill. Based on his NBA career (he might still get in for his college career), he has a very small probability of getting in the Hall. But if you evaluated his career after his first 6 seasons with Detroit and you went on to predict what he'd do the rest of his career, most people would have said he's well on his way to the HOF. But we all know his career got derailed by injury and now he's probably not getting in, based on his NBA resume.

That's why I don't think Wade is a lock right now. Obviously the title and Finals MVP give him a better shot than guys like VC after his first 7 seasons or Grant Hill after his 6 seasons, but to me, not a lock. Guys like Jo Jo White and Cedric Maxwell have Finals MVPs but are not and will not be HOFers.

agree.
But even if Wade finishes his career like VC's I think he makes it.
At his best he was better than the guys you mentioned but I never saw jojo play and Cedric was almost washed up when i started watching him ...

[Booharv]

Grant Hill is a first ballot HOFer only because its the Basketball Hall of Fame not the Pro Basketball Hall of Fame. You guys are forgetting they include College credentials.

[LnGrrrR]

Grant Hill is a first ballot HOFer only because its the Basketball Hall of Fame not the Pro Basketball Hall of Fame. You guys are forgetting they include College credentials.

I know this sounds crazy because he actually retired and Grant Hill didn't, but I think the "Gale Sayers" factor will help Grant Hill. A lot of people will think what his stats would have been had he stayed healthy.

Note: this only works for people who have a few productive years first (Im looking at you Oden)

[Booharv]

I know this sounds crazy because he actually retired and Grant Hill didn't, but I think the "Gale Sayers" factor will help Grant Hill. A lot of people will think what his stats would have been had he stayed healthy.

Note: this only works for people who have a few productive years first (Im looking at you Oden)

Maurice Stokes should be a bench mark for those types of players. He only had 3 NBA years total (1956-58), but was awesome in those years plus had a great college career. David Thompson only had 6 great NBA years then averaged in the low to mid teens for his last 3 years but was a legend because of his those first 6, plus his utter awesomeness in college. Maybe Hill won't be a first ballot guy but he'll get in. His college career helps him a ton. He also has a Gold Medal from the 96 games which counts in his favor as well.

[JamStone]

Maurice Stokes is an interesting case and I don't really know his story so not sure why he's in. But as for David Thompson, if you look at him and he's in the Hall, wouldn't that make for an argument that Tracy McGrady belongs in the HOF? He doesn't have the college resume obviously, but he does have a gold medal. And in his peak years, he put up a number of crazy statistical seasons. I don't think too many would consider T-Mac as a realistic HOFer.

[LnGrrrR]

Maurice Stokes is an interesting case and I don't really know his story so not sure why he's in. But as for David Thompson, if you look at him and he's in the Hall, wouldn't that make for an argument that Tracy McGrady belongs in the HOF? He doesn't have the college resume obviously, but he does have a gold medal. And in his peak years, he put up a number of crazy statistical seasons. I don't think too many would consider T-Mac as a realistic HOFer.

The Gale Sayers argument really only works for me in specific instances:

1) Player looked to be a world-beating, game-changing type of player
2) Player suffered an injury that severely debilitated/limited their game
3) Player seemingly did all he could to maintain/get back their greatness, or retired

I think TMac misses on number 3, as does Vince Carter. Both are perceived as having a lack of motivation to improving their game, as well as poor attitudes, which will make it hard for them to make the Hall.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Maurice Stokes should be a bench mark for those types of players. He only had 3 NBA years total (1956-58), but was awesome in those years plus had a great college career. David Thompson only had 6 great NBA years then averaged in the low to mid teens for his last 3 years but was a legend because of his those first 6, plus his utter awesomeness in college. Maybe Hill won't be a first ballot guy but he'll get in. His college career helps him a ton. He also has a Gold Medal from the 96 games which counts in his favor as well.

I thought Thompson's ABA career might help, but I looked it up but he actually only had one ABA season... though it was a great one. The leagues merged his sophomore season.

One funny quote I found looking up his ABA career was this on his Wikipedia page:

"Explaining his choice between the establishment NBA and the ABA—which offered less real money (but more "deferred" over the life of the contract) -- Thompson said when he met with the Hawks, the organization had seemed almost uninterested, to the point of treating him to a meal at McDonald's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonald%27s)."

:lol

[mogrovejo]

Thompson is in because of his college career. A case similar to Manu's.