NBAdraft.net article "state of the Cap, Spurs edition"

[Big P]

http://www.nbadraft.net/state-cap-san-antonio-spurs-0

State of the Cap: San Antonio Spurs

Fri, 05/21/2010

By Mike Misek

2010/11 San Antonio Spurs Payroll: $66 million
2010/11 NBA Salary Cap: $56.1 million
Roughly: $9.9 million over cap

Variables:

Tony ParkerTony ParkerRichard Jefferson - ETO for $15.2 million
Roger Mason - Unrestricted Free Agent
Matt Bonner - Unrestricted Free Agent
Ian Mahinmi - Unrestricted Free Agent
Keith Bogans - Unrestricted Free Agent
Malik Hairston - Non-guaranteed Team Option for $854K
Garrett Temple - Non-guaranteed Team Option for $762K
Alonzo Gee - Non-guaranteed Team Option for $762K
Curtis Jerrells - Non-guaranteed Team Option for $762K
Tiago Splitter - Rights retained, $863K cap hold. Splitter’s contract with Caja Laboral expires at the end of this season.
Nando De Colo - Rights retained
Viktor Sanikidze - Rights retained

Draft Picks - 20th pick and 49th pick.

The Good: The reason that the first round upset over Dallas should have been a surprise to no one is that the Mavericks are built for the regular season whereas the Spurs are built for the playoffs. This is not a cliché comment, but is reflective of San Antonio investing heavily in their top seven and less so in the back half and Dallas spending much more on 8-15. Over an 82-game regular season, the Mavericks have a much greater ability to absorb the bumps and bruises of long road trips and back-to-backs. San Antonio lost more than a few games this past season because they do not have the depth to best prepare their stars for the playoffs while also winning the next game. While they finished with the same record as Portland and Oklahoma City, those teams had to battle to get to 50 wins while San Antonio gave a few away. In the first round series, however, there were no back-to-backs and the number of minutes given to ninth to fifteenth men on the roster was microscopic. The series was decided because the core of San Antonio is still better than that of Dallas.

The Bad: The worry going forward, however, is it is getting more and more difficult to get Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker through the regular season and keep them healthy throughout the playoffs. It is not a guarantee that Hill, Splitter, Blair, and a first round pick will be able to carry enough weight to get the team through the regular season in one piece, and how the team handles this offseason will go a long way in determining whether the 2011 Spurs resemble the 2010 playoff team or the battered and bruised squad of 2009. It is still not certain whether the George Hill seen in the Dallas series is the same guy as the one who showed up against Phoenix. DeJuan Blair can be nothing short of great in the right matchup, but when facing length and/or athleticism can be taken out of the game.

The Future: If Richard Jefferson opts in and the Spurs choose to keep their sub-million dollar restricted free agents in the mix, San Antonio will enter the summer over both the salary cap and the luxury tax for only twelve players. For the team to sign Tiago Splitter, they will have to use their mid-level exception pushing them even further into the tax. The Spurs can afford to operate in the tax if they go deep into the playoffs and have multiple rounds worth of playoff gates to offset the tax. The problem will come if they go too far above the tax threshold of $67.1 million. The team might end up finding that replacing Matt Bonner, Roger Mason, and Keith Bogans with veteran minimum signings or rookies to be the best option to balance both the needed talent to compete and the budget. Trading Tony Parker would be doing the unthinkable, but if they received enough talent in return it might be a viable option. It would certainly go a long way to alleviating the tax burden. The worry, however, is that if George Hill is not ready to play as consistently well as Parker has, then the deal could kill any chance the Spurs have left of competing. I do not believe the Spurs would take that risk, but the budget may force the team into making a few interesting decisions this summer.

[Agloco]

I like the idea of bringing Hariston and Temple back. Perhaps the Spurs resign Mahinmi as well. That's a long shot however.

[BackHome]

Hairston sucks and Ian sucks........get new players who can play and have upside.

[024]

hairston has pretty good upside, especially defensively. he's cheap so the spurs will keep him. i expect him to get some good minute next season. i doubt mahinmi can get things together now. a change of scenery is probably best for him. i don't expect the spurs to change much next season if jefferson does not opt out. other than use the MLE to sign splitter, the spurs don't have any other resources to make a big splash. spurs will have to wallow in mediocrity and injuries until near the trade deadline when they can explore trading jefferson.

[NFGIII]

hairston has pretty good upside, especially defensively. he's cheap so the spurs will keep him. i expect him to get some good minute next season. i doubt mahinmi can get things together now. a change of scenery is probably best for him. i don't expect the spurs to change much next season if jefferson does not opt out. other than use the MLE to sign splitter, the spurs don't have any other resources to make a big splash. spurs will have to wallow in mediocrity and injuries until near the trade deadline when they can explore trading jefferson.

This will be his make or break year. I agree that he has defensive upside but if he can't improve his dribbling and outside shot he will not be with this team a year from now. As of now he is a offensive liability so his focus this summer will be to improve on that end more.

I agree about Ian. At first I was a fan of his since you can't teach height and that kind of athleticism but this season he hasn't really improved. And I have come to believe he hasn't the tools or IQ to make it. Some will point out that he hasn't gotten the minutes and when he did his offensive output has been very good. But he still fouls way too much to be on the floor for extended minutes. And his extended minutes have been in garbage time, too. If the Spurs ask him back to camp he had better really improve his D and stop the cheap fouls. If not he probably won't even make it out of the pre-season if TC. The Spurs need their 5s to contribute at both ends.

I expect for Splitter to come over even though it seemed that Pop was cautioning the fan base not to be too expectant of that happening. Hopefully a CIA Pop situation.

Concernig the younth movement: bring in Gist, Gee, Temple, Jerrells, Splitter and the 20# pick - hopefully a SF along the lines of a Stanley Robinson, Paul George or Quincy Pondexter - and see how they compete. I don't believe that Xavier Henry will be available at that late a pick and I don't think the Spurs will trade up to get Favors/Turner from either the 76ers or Nets. Those youngsters deemed too raw will then be sent to the Toros for more seasoning. As for De Colo I don't have a handle on if he is ready to come over or not, be it contractual or playing ability. I would like for those who are up on his progress to comment on that.

I give Temple the nod over Jerrels and think Gee will need another year in Austin before it's his time to move up. Gist is 50/50 and I haven't heard much from about his progress overseas. If he was tearing it up there then this board would have been all over that with threads about his future domination of the NBA. Since none have surfaced it seems that he most likely con't make it here unless more seasoning is required.

As for returning vets not under contract - Bonner is the only one that I really think has a chance of coming back. RMJ and Bogans I believe are both gone.

If the Spurs can trade RJ at or near the trade deadline then that would be good move on their part. Moving him in the offseason doesn't seem to have much of a chance. RJ may surprise me next year and I would welcome that but I just think he doesn't fit well here.

Going to be a long off season, especially if we either trade our 1# pick for future picks/cash/considerations or select a Euro to stash for the next couple of years overseas. :depressed