Sorry, the meter was still ringing

[GSH]

Sorry, folks. But when my Bullshit-O-Meter goes off, I usually don't stop. People talking about how Parker is a good player through most of the game, but goes to hell late in the 4th quarter, with the game on the line. And they based it on the "fact" that he bricks so many free throws late in games. So I went through the play-by-play for every single game the Spurs have played this year, and pulled the numbers from the last 4 minutes. And guess what? The numbers don't exactly support their theory. He is certainly no worse late in games than he is any other time. And he didn't miss as many in the last 4:00 as Ginobili or Duncan.

He had one bad game in the playoffs against Denver. Other than that, he is 2-2, and 4-4 in the last 4:00 and overtime of the playoffs this year.

During the regular season, most of his misses in the last 4:00 came in games that were out of reach - the Spurs were either ahead or behind by too much for it to matter. In six regular season games, he was either 1-1, 2-2, or 3-4 in the last 4:00.

In one game, he missed a FT late. But then he nailed a 3-pointer, and knocked down two more FT's to put the game out of reach. In another game, he missed a free throw in the last 4:00; but he also went 4-5 from the field during that same stretch, and put them into overtime. You could argue that the missed FT forced them into overtime. But you could also that his 8 points in 4 minutes probably keeps him out of the category of "offensive liability.

Based on the numbers, if you are going to call Parker an offensive liability, they you definitely have to call Manu and Tim something worse, because they have missed more than he has at the end of close games. And at the end of some of those same games, there were free throws missed by Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, Antonio Daniels, Amare Stoudamire, Robert Horry (several), and other players who are considered good in clutch situations.

I'm going to post the statements again, because they ragged my ass so badly and even called me stupid for one of my posts. Below that is a listing of every free throw that TP took in the last 4:00 of every game for the entire year. (Pay close attention to the ones where the game was actually in question.) The fact is, Parker doesn't shoot as high of a percentage as other starting point guards, and he should. I never objected to that. But all the bullshit about him shooting worse when the team really needs him, or about him being an offensive liability is just too ridiculous for words. And anyone thinking about intentionally fouling him better make damned sure to knock him down, because if he can get a shot off there is a good chance they will be looking at a 3-point opportunity instead.


Tony is an offensive liability at the end of games...As long as he's shooting 40% on his FTs.
The entire second half of this season he's been sucking at FTs down the stretch, and has done it in all the playoff games save one of them.
He's a great offensive player for a possible 44 of 48 minutes, but the last 4 when it really counts he's a liability.
Remember hack-a-Tim, hack-a-Bowen? It's coming for Parker if he keeps bricking them.
It's all mental with Tony, let's see him deliver at the FT line with a game on the line. Of late he's looked more like Kendrick Perkins than an All-Star quality PG.


Parker has shown an inability to make free throws consistently at the end of games. Are you disagreeing with that?



5/10 Parker went 2-2 from the line in the last 4:00
5/4 Parker went 1-4 from the line in the last 4 minutes. He had a terrible game from the line, and that's what got all this started. He missed his first with the Spurs up by 9 with 1:17 to go, and he made the second. When he missed his third and fourth, the Spurs were up by 10 with 44 seconds to go.)
5/2 Parker went 4-4 from the line in overtime. (He didn't have any attempts in the last 4 minutes of regulation time.)
4/10 Parker went 0-1 from the line in the last 4:00. He also went 4-5 from the field during the last 4:00. While making one of those FG's he was fouled, and missed the and-1 opportunity.
4/9 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00.
3/6 Parker went 2-2 from the line in the last 4:00.
3/2 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs up 87-75 with 3:51 left. In the last 3:00 he got 2 rebounds and made a driving layup to ice the game.
2/23 Parker went 0-2 from the line in the last 4:00. Spurs were up 94-79 with 1:18 left in the game.
2/11 Parker went 3-4 from the line in the last 4:00. With 1:08 left in the game, the Nets closed to within a single point. (92-91) Parker nailed a 3-pointer with 2 seconds left on the shot clock to make it 95-91. With :37 left, he was fouled, and knocked down both of them to ice the game.
2/9 Parker went 2-2 from the line in the last 4:00. He also grabbed 2 rebounds during the last 4:00, and went 2-3 from the floor. It was a close game, the Spurs lost 77-82... but Parker was solid at the end.
2/3 Parker went 2-2 from the line in the last 4:00. He also grabbed 2 rebounds.
1/29 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs up 91-81 with :53 to play, against New Orleans.
1/24 Parker went 0-1 from the line in the last 4:00. The Spurs were down 93-99 with 1:27. Parker made a driving layup and missed the and-1 opportunity.
1/15 Parker went 1-1 from the line in the last 4:00. It was a close game that the Spurs eventually lost 57-59.
12/31 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs up 93-76 with 1:25 to play.
12/8 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs down 84-93 with 2:51 to play. Maybe this one contributed to a loss. On the other hand, Duncan going 2-6 from the floor in the last 3:48 probably contributed more.
11/19 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. The miss came with the Spurs ahead 91-78 with 1:55 to play.
11/18 Parker missed 2 free throws. The Spurs were ahead 86-80 with :37 left. Could have cost them a game, but didn't.
11/16 Parker went 3-4 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs ahead 99-79 with 2:08 to play.

[Mr. Body]

Wow. Amazing job. Memes die hard, though, and it will take more work to put this one to bed.

[HB22inSA]

I'm with you, GSH, I don't know why people find it necessary to bash Parker.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

So basically over the last two months the guy is a .500 shooter. Does that inspire confidence in anyone?

Right now the only people on this team that scare me more being at the line with the game on the line are Bowen and Rasho.

You can't include last night, the Spurs were up double figures.

And again, no one's *bashing* Parker. There's a difference between *bashing* and being concerned about trends on the court and potential downfalls of this team in the playoffs.

If it's gotta be kumbaya nonsense 24-7, let's just shut down the board and go home with the understanding everyone on the Spurs is perfect and never screws up. Better?

Again he's a *guard*, there's no excuse for any *guard* not to be shooting at a better clip than what we've seen out of Parker down the stretch of games the last two months.

[Rick Von Braun]

Not to rain on your parade, but should we take a look at the FT% in the clutch, when the game is on the line?

Our good friends from 82games.com (http://www.82games.com) have all the data publicly available.

They define clutch as 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points. I think most people in here would agree with the definition of a close game.

The following is the list of Spurs' players that have taken at least 5 FTs in the clutch (as defined above), sorted by percentage.

Player - FT% in the clutch
Brent Barry - 85.7%
Manu Ginobili - 81.8%
Robert Horry - 77.8%
Tim Duncan - 77.8%
Devin Brown - 66.7%
Tony Parker - 63.6%
Nazr Mohammed - 62.5%

I believe it is difficult to justify having the ball on Tony's hands if you know the other team is fouling and your player is going to the line. This is why the Spurs (Pop & co.) prefer to have the ball in Brent's or Manu's hands at the end of a close game if you know the other team is fouling.

[bigbendbruisebrother]

GSH, you are the proud new owner of a defensive Aggie! Come on down!

[GSH]

AHP - A very wise man once told me something that I think you could benefit from: "No matter what you personally use to keep score in life, nobody is going to give you any extra points for being a prick."

Or maybe you should remember a line from one of my favorite movies, Animal House - "Fat, lazy, and stupid is no way to go through life, son."

You make ignorant statements, get called on them, and then want to change the subject and/or get insulting. Read your own quotes. You can't blame me for that. You said it. It was wrong. If that wasn't what you meant, retract it. If you want to change subjects, just say so. But don't pretend that your original point was any less ignorant, just because you say something a little less ignorant.

And, frankly, I don't give a shit what inspires confidence with you.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Um, you're the one who started with the personal calling out. Don't give me an of these bullshit lectures about being a prick. If you call me out, you're gonna get it back.

The only sarcastic comment I made above was the kumbaya thing. If that's got your panties in a bunch, I guess it sucks to be you.

And what is all this talk about ignorance? The stat guru (aka Rick Von Braun) just came along with stats that backed me up.

Where you're concerned, I don't know about the fat and lazy part, but he sure backed me up on making you look stupid.

And what's with your big fetish over Tony Parker anyway? You have whined more about me calling out Tony's FT shooting than Spursgal whined about any criticism of Malik.

In the last 5 minutes of games, Tony is shooting FTs at the same clip as our starting center. Which is never a good thing, unless your center is named Dirk.

RVB provided some great statistical backing to my observations of the last two months. Maybe you should spend some more time digesting that and less time whining about pricks, being fat, lazy, and stupid, etc.


You make ignorant statements, get called on them, and then want to change the subject and/or get insulting.

What is ignorant about my statement regarding Tony? Looks to me like he's not even one of our five most reliable guys in crunch time when it comes to FTs, which is pretty much my original point that you're still bitching about a week and a half later.

And where did I change the subject? The kumbaya thing wasn't even directed at you, but rather the other poster who was talking about the "bashing" of Tony.

Tony's one of my favorite Spurs, I just wish he'd get his shit together at the FT line.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

I think his point though, Aggie, is that when the game is on the line Parker comes through, and if you read the game summaries for parker, it makes sense to me. I am a lawyer and have found throughout my career, that there is always a way to count stats so that they contradict each other.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I sort of see your point. He hasn't really shown one though. I could care less if Tony hit a couple of FTs late in the season agianst a lotto team.

Mine is Tony is at his best when he can get to the bucket. And given watching a guy go in for a layup or putting him at the line where he's as likely to go 0-2 as 2-2, they're gonna use their fouls and put Tony on the line.

And bad FT shooting in crunch time is not a good thing. Like Rick said, the ball is finding its way to the hands of Manu, Barry, etc.

It's easy to pat Tony on the back while we're kicking Seattle by 20, but my concern is what he's going to do at the FT line when we're in the 1-2 point nailbiters with teams like Phoenix, Detroit, and Miami.

[Mr. Body]

Or maybe you should remember a line from one of my favorite movies, Animal House - "Fat, lazy, and stupid is no way to go through life, son."

Isn't this from Raising Arizona?

[Brodels]

5/10 Parker went 2-2 from the line in the last 4:00
5/4 Parker went 1-4 from the line in the last 4 minutes. He had a terrible game from the line, and that's what got all this started. He missed his first with the Spurs up by 9 with 1:17 to go, and he made the second. When he missed his third and fourth, the Spurs were up by 10 with 44 seconds to go.)
5/2 Parker went 4-4 from the line in overtime. (He didn't have any attempts in the last 4 minutes of regulation time.)
4/10 Parker went 0-1 from the line in the last 4:00. He also went 4-5 from the field during the last 4:00. While making one of those FG's he was fouled, and missed the and-1 opportunity.
4/9 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00.
3/6 Parker went 2-2 from the line in the last 4:00.
3/2 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs up 87-75 with 3:51 left. In the last 3:00 he got 2 rebounds and made a driving layup to ice the game.
2/23 Parker went 0-2 from the line in the last 4:00. Spurs were up 94-79 with 1:18 left in the game.
2/11 Parker went 3-4 from the line in the last 4:00. With 1:08 left in the game, the Nets closed to within a single point. (92-91) Parker nailed a 3-pointer with 2 seconds left on the shot clock to make it 95-91. With :37 left, he was fouled, and knocked down both of them to ice the game.
2/9 Parker went 2-2 from the line in the last 4:00. He also grabbed 2 rebounds during the last 4:00, and went 2-3 from the floor. It was a close game, the Spurs lost 77-82... but Parker was solid at the end.
2/3 Parker went 2-2 from the line in the last 4:00. He also grabbed 2 rebounds.
1/29 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs up 91-81 with :53 to play, against New Orleans.
1/24 Parker went 0-1 from the line in the last 4:00. The Spurs were down 93-99 with 1:27. Parker made a driving layup and missed the and-1 opportunity.
1/15 Parker went 1-1 from the line in the last 4:00. It was a close game that the Spurs eventually lost 57-59.
12/31 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs up 93-76 with 1:25 to play.
12/8 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs down 84-93 with 2:51 to play. Maybe this one contributed to a loss. On the other hand, Duncan going 2-6 from the floor in the last 3:48 probably contributed more.
11/19 Parker went 1-2 from the line in the last 4:00. The miss came with the Spurs ahead 91-78 with 1:55 to play.
11/18 Parker missed 2 free throws. The Spurs were ahead 86-80 with :37 left. Could have cost them a game, but didn't.
11/16 Parker went 3-4 from the line in the last 4:00. His miss came with the Spurs ahead 99-79 with 2:08 to play.

Your own stats prove our point better than anything we could ever say. Parker is shooting not much better than 50% from the line in these situations. You don't think that could possibly turn out to be a problem at some point when the Spurs play the best teams in the league for several games in a row? It's a lot harder to cover for those kinds of mistakes in the playoffs.

The Spurs may not lose a game because Parker shoots free throws poorly, but your own stats show that he is likely to miss some down the stretch. And if that's the case, it could really come back to hurt the Spurs. The playoffs aren't the regular season.


Not to rain on your parade, but should we take a look at the FT% in the clutch, when the game is on the line?

Our good friends from 82games.com have all the data publicly available.

They define clutch as 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points. I think most people in here would agree with the definition of a close game.

The following is the list of Spurs' players that have taken at least 5 FTs in the clutch (as defined above), sorted by percentage.

Player - FT% in the clutch
Brent Barry - 85.7%
Manu Ginobili - 81.8%
Robert Horry - 77.8%
Tim Duncan - 77.8%
Devin Brown - 66.7%
Tony Parker - 63.6%
Nazr Mohammed - 62.5%

I believe it is difficult to justify having the ball on Tony's hands if you know the other team is fouling and your player is going to the line. This is why the Spurs (Pop & co.) prefer to have the ball in Brent's or Manu's hands at the end of a close game if you know the other team is fouling.



Wow. Amazing job. Memes die hard, though, and it will take more work to put this one to bed.

Until you bring better stats to the table. I appreciate the work that went into compiling them because they proved my point very well, but RVB's stats are much more useful. The fact that they take in to consideration game score and game time makes them a little more relevant.


I'm with you, GSH, I don't know why people find it necessary to bash Parker.

Me either. Luckily, nobody is doing that in this thread. I'm not sure why you brought that up in this thread.


Sorry, folks. But when my Bullshit-O-Meter goes off, I usually don't stop.

I hope it stops at some point, because you're either going to continue losing the argument or you're going to keep making up things that people haven't claimed just so you can argue with yourself. All that was said is that Tony can be a liability at the end of games because he misses a lot of free throws. Your own stats proved that. RVB's were even more revealing.


People talking about how Parker is a good player through most of the game, but goes to hell late in the 4th quarter, with the game on the line.

Again, I'm convinced you're just putting words in others' mouths just to argue with yourself. Nobody said that Tony's game goes to hell in the fourth. All that's been said is that he misses some free throws at the end of games.


And they based it on the "fact" that he bricks so many free throws late in games.

Look at your own research. It supports exactly what you're trying to argue against.

I know you hate that some people can call out Parker for being something other than perfect, but all you've done is provide stats that support exactly what AHF is arguing.

Just in case you still don't understand the argument:

The argument: Parker could possibly hurt the Spurs at the end of close games because he has a history of missing some free throws, including those taken in the last few moments of the game. Since playoff basketball will involve some close games with good teams, the problem can become an even more important concern. Even if he performs well in other facets of the game down the stretch, he still is more likely to cost the team a win at the very end of games that some other players because he doesn't shoot free throws well.

The evidence: According to RVB's stats, Parker shoots 63% in clutch moments, a figure supported by your own research.

I appreciate the effort you put into your post, but it doesn't really do anything to refute AHF's argument.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

:lol It's kind of funny Brodels. I can't remember the last time someone on this site who argued with me ended up providing facts that went against everything that they were saying I was wrong about, in essence proving even further how wrong they were and how right I was.

First time for everything I guess. :hat

[Brodels]

:lol It's kind of funny Brodels. I can't remember the last time someone on this site who argued with me ended up providing facts that went against everything that they were saying I was wrong about, in essence proving even further how wrong they were and how right I was.

First time for everything I guess. :hat

I think he's arguing with you just because he doesn't like you. He keeps tiptoeing around the point because there really isn't a way to refute it. The numbers show that Parker has had some trouble at the line, and no sane person is going to say that free throw shooting doesn't matter at the end of close games against good teams in the playoffs. You have to successfully refute both of those things to have an argument, and it just hasn't been done yet.

I appreciate the work he puts into his posts, but I think it's time for a new topic.

He's already done all the work for you on this one.

[SPARKY]

I'd rather have TP handling the rock late in games instead of good old Butter Hands Beno. Beyond that the rest of this discussion is mental masturbation.

[Spurminator]

What this does support is my earlier assertion that having Parker on the floor is not a problem because the Spurs will typically keep the ball out of his hands during the clutch.

According to 82games.com, Parker's rate of FTA's in "clutch" situations is 4.3 per 48 minutes. Or, 0.45 attempts during "clutch" situations. His usual rate is 5.7 per 48.

By comparison, Duncan's rate of FTAs in clutch situations is 15.2 (shooting a "clutch" 78% during those attempts). Manu's is 30.3. Even Barry and Horry shoot more free throws in clutch situations than Parker, at 5.5 per 48 minutes each.

So any worries about Parker having the ball and being forced to the line to ice the game are pretty much unfounded, because the Spurs have made a habit of keeping the ball in the hands of their best FT shooters.

[Spurminator]

Oh, and I failed to mention... Parker shot a grand total of ELEVEN (11) free throws in clutch situations this season.

Ginobili, on the other hand, had 66 clutch free throw attempts.

[bigbendbruisebrother]

I wish I had uu666's dead horse emoticon. It would come in handy right now.

I'll guess I'll get my licks in too.

There is a middle ground here, but of course very few people choose to take that. Arguing the extreme makes for better "mental masturbation" as Sparky put it.

I'm pretty sure that everybody here agrees on these things:
1. Tony Parker is a damn good basketball player, and an asset to the team (which none of us want to see lose).
2. Tony Parker needs to be more consistent with his free throw shooting.
3. Tony Parker's free throw inconsistencies could put the Spurs at risk in a tight game in the playoffs.

Therefore, Tony Parker should continue to try to improve at the line. If the team finds itself in a tight situation where the other team is trying to foul, the team should continue (as the clutch stat shows) to get the ball into the hands of our consistently good clutch free throw shooters.

Every team has its weaknesses. The Spurs happen to have a hard time hitting free throws consistently. Are there bigger problems that we could have? Yes. Would it be nice if this problem went away? Yes. Will any of us play a role in solving this problem? No. Are there other things we can beat into the ground? I hope so.