Ray Allen: Hot shooter, or just good?

[duncan228]

Ray Allen: Hot shooter, or just good? (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/16519/ray-allen-hot-shooter-or-just-good)
By Henry Abbott
TrueHoop

Was Ray Allen's performance in the first half of Game 2 evidence that a player can get hot?

Even though it's entirely celebrated as a reality of hoops at all levels, serious research has cast doubt on the very existence of "the hot hand."

Does Ray Allen's hitting seven straight 3-pointers blow all that research to smithereens?

Allen has shot close to 7,000 3s in his career, and has made about 40% of them. (Going into the game, he was 2,685 of 6,768, regular season and playoffs combined.)

Given that -- how lucky is seven in a row? Is this a case of a guy who has something special and strange and almost religious going on? Is the zone holy ground?

Or if you have picture perfect shooting form that you practice incessantly like he does, will makes show up in a seven-strong posse once in a while, because that's just how life is?

If you flip a coin enough times, it'll come up heads seven times in a row, without ever being anything other than random, right?

All kind of research has shown that people tend to see trends where in fact things are random. It's just how our brains work. People will watch a coin land on heads again and again and assume that's a fishy coin. We think random things should look random, as in all mixed up. But in fact, truly random things sometimes look organized.

I invite those of you with better math heads than me to tell he how you'd assess Allen's performance. If you hit 40% of the time, and take 6,678 shots, how often would you end up with seven or more makes in a row?

Does Allen do that more often than you'd expect? (Bring on your probabilities!) If the answer is yes, then let's talk about the hot hand. But if the answer is no, well then let's appreciate this is the kind of night good shooters have sometimes, even without the supernatural.

And either way, there are a couple of lessons. One of them is that the most authoritative study to date (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/6241/hot-and-heavy-about-nba-shooting) found that if the hot hand exists, it's rare. And its effect is far smaller than an opposite "hunting shots" or "heat check" effect -- players hit a shot or two and then tend to take a really tough one. They apparently believe so firmly in the idea of the hot hand that after a few shots go in, they'll suspend their normal shot selection. And then they almost always miss.

(Allen may have done a little of that in the second half.)

Since digging into that research a year and a few months ago, I can assure you that if you want to see poor shot selection, make yourself a highlight reel of NBA players who have just hit two shots in a row. That third time down the court, the defense is ready for them, but they're almost always shooting anyway, no matter how horrible the look.

In the study, a player who had just hit a shot was less likely to hit his next one than a player who had just missed. The opposite of the hot hand is alive and well. That is why, as a coach, you don't just "feed the hot hand." It's an invitation for your players to suspend their best judgment, and that's no way to win.

Except for every now and again, like the first half of Game 2, when riding the hot hand -- or whatever Allen had going on -- won the Celtics a game and changed the tenor of these NBA Finals. On nights like that, it's worth remembering that even the authors of that big study say some players may get hot sometimes. And consider a newer, different study, that has found some new suggestions of the hot hand (http://www.insidescience.org/research/the_science_of_streaky_shooting).

[Giuseppe]

In for penny.

In for pound.

[Darrin]

He's a great shooter. Declining in production since his days in Seattle, Allen's performance was a breath of fresh-air for those that love to see him tee up his pretty jumper. I love his game, just not his miles. This may prove to help the Celtics win their 18th NBA Championship, and if that is the case, all the trade talk from earlier in the season will seem almost idiotic. Key and integral in the NBA Finals. Isn't that what the Celtics were going to trade him for?

[Venti Quattro]

He was hot and good in game 2, that's for sure.

[thedong]

he is both, when he is good, he shoots 50%, when he is hot he breaks history.

[Bob Lanier]

A lot of slippery logic in that article. The world is rarely as simple as modelers think, and that includes stat geeks as much as magical thinkers.

[KidCongo]

It's a pity he plays for the Celtics but I could just watch Ray shoot jumper after jumper.

[HarlemHeat37]

I didn't read this article, but it should account for the fact that an elite shooter like Allen will rarely see the poor D he saw in the 1st half against an elite defensive team like the Lakers..

This was actually one of the few "hot" games I've ever seen where I never even once thought, "how the fuck did he make that shot?"..they were all open/wide open 3-point shots that Ray Allen SHOULD be making..

The Lakers adjusted in the 2nd half for the most part..the bigs did a better job at closing out, either forcing the miss or making him drive..they really didn't show much resistance in the 1st half..

[DesignatedT]

Hes always been a pretty underrated player IMO. Not only is he the best shooter in the NBA but does every other thing well also. Plays solid D, Rarely makes bad decisions, High basketball IQ and is a good teammate.

I used to not be able to stand the guy back in Seattle when he used to cry about Bowen but he's a great player even though he's getting up there in age.

[ace3g]

Ray Allen has one of the best jumpshots in the world, he is pure shooter. His bad shooting nights are career/hot "I can't miss" nights for other players in the league.

If you want to model your jumpshot after anyone it should be Allen or Durant.

[crc21209]

I didn't read this article, but it should account for the fact that an elite shooter like Allen will rarely see the poor D he saw in the 1st half against an elite defensive team like the Lakers..

This was actually one of the few "hot" games I've ever seen where I never even once thought, "how the fuck did he make that shot?"..they were all open/wide open 3-point shots that Ray Allen SHOULD be making..

The Lakers adjusted in the 2nd half for the most part..the bigs did a better job at closing out, either forcing the miss or making him drive..they really didn't show much resistance in the 1st half..

True, but Allen hitting 3 after 3 is on both Fisher and Kobe who were on him the majority of the time. Fisher is too old/slow to be running around chasing Ray the entire time. Kobe just looks lazy sometimes trying to defend on D. And yeah the Laker bigs did adjust in the 2nd half with some good close-outs on him, but can they continue to do it for the rest of the series?

[ForeignFan]

Allen is just a pleasure to watch

[namlook]

Allen is just a pleasure to watch

When he's not crying about Bruce Bowen.

[mingus]

When he's not crying about Bruce Bowen.

yeah, no doubt. that why Bruce was so damn good. bruce woulda had him crying tonight.

[Pero]

If you want to model your jumpshot after anyone it should be Allen or Durant.

He makes his shots but Durant's jump shot looks ugly to me. Not that it's Marion level ugly though. :lol

[lakaluva's mom]

Damn, my son is makin it BIG! He got a national question posed for him, so I guess lakaluva could call him a good hot shooter, seeing that Ray Ray aimed right at his nostrils, and hit right on target

[Giuseppe]

Damn, my son is makin it BIG! He got a national question posed for him, so I guess lakaluva could call him a good hot shooter, seeing that Ray Ray aimed right at his nostrils, and hit right on target

:rolleyes

[Veterinarian]

In for penny.

In for pound.

Thanks for that. Do you have any other centuries old cliches you want to pass off as basketball analysis?

[BullsDynasty]

Sure does help when you're shooting jumpers 3 hours before the game.

[Giuseppe]

Thanks for that. Do you have any other centuries old cliches you want to pass off as basketball analysis?

Yep:::the next time you cross the Arizona border tape your ass cheeks shut and help your own gimp to his feet.

Savvy?

[pauls931]

Looks at boxscore... LOL, he set an NBA record!? Guess game one wasn't a knockout blow, I'm going to have to start watching. Hope it goes 7 games and then a quake takes out both teams and LA fans.

[Veterinarian]

Yep:::the next time you cross the Arizona border tape your ass cheeks shut and help your own gimp to his feet.

Savvy?

Nope. Try again.

[TheManFromAcme]

Ray is s great shooter. Once he gets that stroke going, it's lights out.

[Giuseppe]

.........you'd still O & 42, Paul.

[Giuseppe]

Nope. Try again.

Ok:::the next time the Suns cross the Texas border tape your ass cheeks shut and help your own gimp to his feet.

Savvy?

[Giuseppe]

Ray is s great shooter. Once he gets that stroke going, it's lights out.

Yeah, but, you still have to attempt to guard him.

What, Phil was surprised two weeks apart by the zone and now Ray Allen.:rolleyes

[Veterinarian]

Ok:::the next time the Suns cross the Texas border tape your ass cheeks shut and help your own gimp to his feet.

Savvy?

Not really. Mostly just vulgar and unfunny.

[pauls931]

Gotta admit, Allen has the best looking longball stroke of any player right now bar none. Can't leave that guy open no matter what. He's like Reggie Miller minus an annoying sister.

[Giuseppe]

Not really. Mostly just vulgar and unfunny.

In for penny.

In for pound.

[TheManFromAcme]

Yeah, but, you still have to attempt to guard him.

What, Phil was surprised two weeks apart by the zone and now Ray Allen.:rolleyes

I hear you but that goes for any great shooter. I was just commenting on Ray's shooting abilities. You can hate the guy for the colors he wears but he has an almost textbook form to his shooting. That's all.
He's capable of having those nights. How many of these type of shooting nights has Ray had throughout the whole playoff sereis? Anybody know?
I want to say he hasn't had alot of those nights.

[Muser]

"Hot shooter or just good?"

Pretty shit headline, when you hold the highest 3 point % in finals history you're not a hot shooter or just good, you're elite.

[Giuseppe]

They'll be ample time to kiss Allen's bean bag when this is over.

Right now I'm still sorely plexed that Phil wasn't prepared for the zone and last night he acted like he'd never heard of Ray Allen getting hot.

If it takes him several games to figure out the zone and a half to arrange defense on Allen we're not going to make it.

[Giuseppe]

when you hold the highest 3 point % in finals history you're not a hot shooter or just good, you're elite.

And Phil didn't know this before tip last night?

[pjjrfan]

I didn't read this article, but it should account for the fact that an elite shooter like Allen will rarely see the poor D he saw in the 1st half against an elite defensive team like the Lakers..

This was actually one of the few "hot" games I've ever seen where I never even once thought, "how the fuck did he make that shot?"..they were all open/wide open 3-point shots that Ray Allen SHOULD be making..

The Lakers adjusted in the 2nd half for the most part..the bigs did a better job at closing out, either forcing the miss or making him drive..they really didn't show much resistance in the 1st half..

They were wide open in part because Allen was moving around and the Celtics as a team were setting picks for Fisher or whoever had him to go around. He made most of them as he got open and let it fly. Allen is a great shooter who got hot. The Lakers did adjust but Allen still found space inside the 3 pt. line.

[duncan228]

Seven straight 3s, by the numbers (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/16532/seven-straight-3s-by-the-numbers)
By Henry Abbott

Last night I asked how common it was for a player like Ray Allen to make seven straight 3-pointers (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post?id=16519). Was he hot? Or is that just the kind of run good shooters have once in a while?

Research has never found the hot hand to be anything like as common as we assume it to be, and some studies (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/6241/hot-and-heavy-about-nba-shooting) leave open the idea that there is no such thing as a hot hand at all.

Several smart people have weighed in to help us assess Ray Allen's series-changing shooting in Game 2. For instance, Neil Paine of Baskeball-Reference has written a blog post that delves into numbers, then concludes (http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6353): "Allen's streak neither proves nor disproves the hot hand ... It was simply a great performance by one of the most skilled 3-point marksmen in the game's history."

Meanwhile, Sandy Weil was a co-author of the preeminent research into the hot hand (http://sportsmetricians.com/), and he e-mails to explain that depending on how you look at it, Allen had about a one-in-four chance of having a game like that.

He explains:


If you just ask: what is the chance that a 40% shooter makes 7-of-7? Then the answer is 0.0016 (about 1-in-610).

But I think that that is not the right question. I counter with this question: Wouldn't you be just as excited if he made seven in a row at any point during the game -- not just at the beginning?

If so, ought we not ask instead: What is the chance that a guy who takes 11 shots will make (at least) seven in a row in there somewhere? Well, then you give him the chance to start his streak with his first, second, third, fourth or fifth shot. So, you have to multiply the probability above by 5, giving 0.0082 (about 1-in-122).

But he missed some 2-point FGAs in there, so he didn't really hit seven in a row, did he? What if we talk about his making any eight of his 11 3-point attempts? Well, now there are 165 ways that we could sprinkle those three misses among the eight makes: 0.0234 (1-in-42)

But then we are still making another mistake: Wouldn't you be just as excited (actually more so) if Allen had made nine or ten or all of those 11 shot? So, we should probably ask: what is the chance that he makes at least eight of his 11 attempts? 0.029 (1-in-34)

But we should ask: what other information are we ignoring that is too inconvenient for the story? Too often, when focusing on the good, we ignore the offsetting bad. This makes the impressive performance look more otherworldly than it is. By focusing on the seven in a row, we had lost track of the three shots he missed and the other one as well.

During his "streak", if you consider two-pointers (which are conveniently ignored since they don't support the hot hand theory in this case), his game shots, in order are: missed 2, made 2, made 3, made 3, made 2, missed 2, missed 2, made 3, missed 2, made 3, made 3, made 3, made 3, missed 3, made 3, missed 3, made 2, missed 3, missed 2, missed 2.

So, this means that he never actually made more than four shots in a row at any time. (Though he did that twice.) And he shot only 11-of-20.

What do those figures look like?

If we use his 40% shooting rate, he has a 44% chance of making at least four in a row. And a 13% chance of shooting at least 11-of-20.

Another curious fact to consider is that he broke his own Finals record (shared). Ray Allen had played in eight career NBA Finals games, all against the Lakers. He made seven and eight 3s respectively in two of those games. This suggests that he may be a good matchup for the Celtics against the Lakers. I'd have to watch the film, but what if the Celtics, with time to game plan and prepare, run even more screens for Allen? Or what if Kobe is just a bit more likely to play the passing lanes than other defenders. It is quite possible that Allen and the Celtics do a good job of exploiting these kinds of things. Allen might just shoot a bit better against the Lakers than his career regular season 3-poing field goal shooting average of 40%.

Suppose that we look at him as a 45% shooter (his career all-shots success rate)? What kind of effect does that have on these figures?

Making seven in a row: 0.00374 (1-in-268)

Seven-in-a-row-amongst-11: 0.0187 (1-in-54)

Exactly eight-of-11: 0.046 (1-in-22)

At least eight-of-11: 0.061 (1-in-16)

At least four in a row amongst 20? 0.70

Shooting at least 11 of 20? 0.25

In this light, doesn't it seem a bit less otherworldly?

[SpursDynasty]

Ray Allen is just making shots he normally makes. Against a team like the Lakers, those are automatic.