View Full Version : Peter Schiff "Runaway Inflation is the biggest threat" "Greek style Crisis is coming"
InRareForm
06-21-2010, 05:08 PM
EGfE2cLodWo
CosmicCowboy
06-21-2010, 05:28 PM
I tend to agree. Thats why I'm currently about to refinance the balance due on my house on a 30 year fixed note, which is a little counter-intuitive for someone in their 50's with a lot of home equity. I've been through big time inflation and 20% interest rates and it can get ugly.
peter schiff is just another PM pimp. The US government, unless they've gone completely insane, is not going to monetize the debt. They've made that mistake before. They are going to TAX their way out and eventually, when reality sinks in, cut spending. Perhaps a combination of all three. Probably all three. Crank up the presses, expand the money supply, raise taxes and the hardest of all, cut spending.
All that is known is, it cannot continue on the track it is on now. Something has got to give. Whether we have the will to tackle this is another story. The elections will give us some insight into this matter and then of course, if the potentially 'new crew' has the political will or muscle to make the necessary changes.
One thing is FOR SURE. It's a big shit sandwich and everyone is going to have to take a bite. It's not going to be pretty.
boutons_deux
06-21-2010, 07:41 PM
Greece's crisis is that it can't inflate their way out of debt by printing money, the way the US escaped a lot debt after WWII. The US can print all the dollars it wants, and they sell very well.
With US demand flat and some months falling, runaway inflation is not the problem, it's scare mongering.
The fear now is that scare-mongered (Dem) deficits are stopping govt spending to compensate for lack of consumer spending which is 70% of the economy. Of course, the wealthy plutocracy is going to cut spending by fucking over the shitty US safety net, aid to the poor, to children, to long-term unemployed.
Another real fear is 10% unemployment continuing for years, causing 100s of 1000s of more foreclosures and failed banks, and killing the housing market with, now, about9-10 years of inventory, and restricting tax revenues at all levels of govt. Millions additonal people in the 50s and 60s will be forced due to the job losses and invesment losses to live out their last years on Medicaid, burdening the govt more.
Inflation? GMAFB
Yup. Gold is being pimped when all of the other PM's are lagging behind. Real precious metals that are used to manufacture stuff...stagnate..or...relatively so. Gold has really, zip value. Silver not much more. The biggest fools in that game are silver bugs. When palladium moves, then we got game. The ratio of gold/silver is outrageous. But what does that tell you ? The only PM doing anything is gold and it's all emotional buying. As the European economies go in the tank, gold should be falling. And it will. But I laugh at Peter Schiff articles and that other dude ...Celente. Collapse of America in 2008...err...2009...no wait...2010. Hell, eventually he could be right. Even Rome fell.
The other thing that has happened in America, and it's been a force all the way through, is the boomers. BIG generation. As they moved through the workforce and consumed, housing prices rised steadily. Well that's over. The boomer are fully housed. Now they need 'blue hair' stuff. Much of what has gone on is demographics. That, and importing all this oil the last 40 years or so. Those two things have probably played more a part of where this nation is, than anything.
Capt Bringdown
06-21-2010, 08:40 PM
With US demand flat and some months falling, runaway inflation is not the problem, it's scare mongering.
The fear now is that scare-mongered (Dem) deficits are stopping govt spending to compensate for lack of consumer spending which is 70% of the economy. Of course, the wealthy plutocracy is going to cut spending by fucking over the shitty US safety net, aid to the poor, to children, to long-term unemployed.
An engineered crisis. Tax cuts and blown-out spending designed to wreck government/democracy. This is the penultimate moment they've been waiting for, and the scare tactics are ramping up.
I don't see much hope. Obama appointed Alan Simpson to his deficit commitee...Alan Simpson!
boutons_deux
06-21-2010, 08:52 PM
"Alan Simpson"
and Pete Peterson.
An engineered crisis. Tax cuts and blown-out spending designed to wreck government/democracy. This is the penultimate moment they've been waiting for, and the scare tactics are ramping up.
I don't see much hope. Obama appointed Alan Simpson to his deficit commitee...Alan Simpson!
This 'they' you speak of...listen up...the 'they' is not competent enough to intentionally wreck democracy. Incompetent enough,yes. But that's what happens when you try to control everything. This is what Adam Smith addressed 250 years ago and the various authors of the federalist papers. No person or group is smart enough to be able to control an economy. That's why the only answer, as painful and ugly as it may seem, is free markets. The invisible hand. When will people understand that capitalism = freedom. We keep fighting this concept, over and over. Why ?
CosmicCowboy
06-21-2010, 09:10 PM
Greece's crisis is that it can't inflate their way out of debt by printing money, the way the US escaped a lot debt after WWII. The US can print all the dollars it wants, and they sell very well.
With US demand flat and some months falling, runaway inflation is not the problem, it's scare mongering.
The fear now is that scare-mongered (Dem) deficits are stopping govt spending to compensate for lack of consumer spending which is 70% of the economy. Of course, the wealthy plutocracy is going to cut spending by fucking over the shitty US safety net, aid to the poor, to children, to long-term unemployed.
Another real fear is 10% unemployment continuing for years, causing 100s of 1000s of more foreclosures and failed banks, and killing the housing market with, now, about9-10 years of inventory, and restricting tax revenues at all levels of govt. Millions additonal people in the 50s and 60s will be forced due to the job losses and invesment losses to live out their last years on Medicaid, burdening the govt more.
Inflation? GMAFB
You really are a dumb motherfucker. The US will hit a point it won't have a choice. Inflate or default. The Fed was buying US debt like crazy last year till even they got spooked and quit buying.
ElNono
06-21-2010, 09:31 PM
http://ui17.gamespot.com/1168/onoes2_2.gif
CosmicCowboy
06-21-2010, 09:40 PM
http://ui17.gamespot.com/1168/onoes2_2.gif
I'm not panicked at all. At the same time it helps to have a functioning brain to anticipate the changes you will have to deal with in your life. If you aren't solvent and variable rate debt free when it hits the tipping point you will be well and truly fucked.
You really are a dumb motherfucker. The US will hit a point it won't have a choice. Inflate or default. The Fed was buying US debt like crazy last year till even they got spooked and quit buying.
They bought US debt because no one else would. He is right. Greece can't inflate their way out of debt. Greece, being part of the EU, is not in control of their own monetary policy, as none of the EU nations are. The US will not inflate their way out of this. It was tried before in the late 70's. Disaster. Like I say, they'll do it if they've lost their minds. The only answer is, budget cuts and HIGHER TAXES.
Higher taxes will come first, then the cuts. Then the tears.
CosmicCowboy
06-21-2010, 09:55 PM
They bought US debt because no one else would. He is right. Greece can't inflate their way out of debt. Greece, being part of the EU, is not in control of their own monetary policy, as none of the EU nations are. The US will not inflate their way out of this. It was tried before in the late 70's. Disaster. Like I say, they'll do it if they've lost their minds. The only answer is, budget cuts and HIGHER TAXES.
Higher taxes will come first, then the cuts. Then the tears.
:lmao
How old are you?
You really think the US is totally in control of it's monetary policy?
With a bunch of gutless politicians in Washington?
Why do you think we now have "unemployed" people on their third year of Federal UE benefits that get constantly extended? Nobody has the balls to say your fucking job is gone and it's probably never coming back. Get the fuck over it. Valero is hiring at the Corner Store.
As long as they are getting their cocks sucked by the inbred Washington leaches our Senators and Congress are gonna continue to fuck things up. Meanwhile the Fed can still fiddle while the Titanic sinks.
Now that I think about it, I read that the money supply is at a 20 year low. If I recall correctly, this is similar to the situation Clinton had early on. He expanded the money supply and the economy took off however, there were other factors. Namely the tech boom of the 90's. Glorious times I might add. If you didn't make money in the 90's you just weren't capable of making money. But, perhaps, I hope, we have a similar situation here and Bama is just holding off for the 2012 election and will unleash a lot of cash into the system in the next year or so. But, like I say, the same conditions don't exist. I don't see some big boom on the horizon in a new technology. Most of you pups probably don't realize how fast ....the penetration rate of personal computers on the market was astounding. It's just behind TV's and refridgerators. We need another tech boom. A new hair dryer or sumthin...
:lmao
How old are you?
You really think the US is totally in control of it's monetary policy?
With a bunch of gutless politicians in Washington?
Why do you think we now have "unemployed" people on their third year of Federal UE benefits that get constantly extended? Nobody has the balls to say your fucking job is gone and it's probably never coming back. Get the fuck over it. Valero is hiring at the Corner Store.
As long as they are getting their cocks sucked by the inbred Washington leaches our Senators and Congress are gonna continue to fuck things up. Meanwhile the Fed can still fiddle while the Titanic sinks.
56. What does all that mean ? What you said there ? The US is in control of it's monetary policy compared to Greece, yes. What prevents us from cranking up the press is China, who would dump their US debt.
To who, I don't know. As I asked in another thread, who really holds the power here ? I don't know. Someone owes you a little money that's one thing..you can harrass them till the end of time. They owe you a lot of money you're taking 'em to the doctor to make sure they're ok.
Anyway, I don't know what that post was all about. Could you elaborate ? I'm that stupid.
ElNono
06-21-2010, 10:08 PM
I'm not panicked at all. At the same time it helps to have a functioning brain to anticipate the changes you will have to deal with in your life. If you aren't solvent and variable rate debt free when it hits the tipping point you will be well and truly fucked.
I already lived through periods of inflation and hyperinflation. It can be tough if you never been through one before. That's basically why I'm not really afraid.
That said, there's a multitude of countries backing their own currencies with US dollars, thus I still see it as unlikely to reach that tipping point in anything but an ordered-fashion, far from the crisis you see in countries like Greece.
Where did you live through hyper-inflation ? Are you from Zimbabwe ?
ElNono
06-21-2010, 10:22 PM
Where did you live through hyper-inflation ? Are you from Zimbabwe ?
Argentina in the late 80's...
boutons_deux
06-21-2010, 10:28 PM
Volker showed how to cut down demand inflation in 1980s, with very high interest rates.
Are we faced with demand inflation? wage-push inflation? In the USA? Anywhere?
Argentina in the late 80's...
Give me some tips, just in case.
Other than 'get out'. I have to stick around for a few years yet. Parents still alive, kids almost grown..
Volker showed how to cut down demand inflation in 1980s, with very high interest rates.
Are we faced with demand inflation? wage-push inflation? In the USA? Anywhere?
What occurred and ..this is the thing...economic models have their time and place. During that time, people had money, they just didn't have shit to do with it. Pent up demand. Walmart. The birth of the consumer society. Supply side economics. Put it on the shelf, they will come. It's not feasible at this time. We're 'consumed out'. Credit is pegged. There's no place to go with this model. Back to Keynesian economics. It will run it's course, then ...wash rinse repeat.
ElNono
06-21-2010, 10:47 PM
Give me some tips, just in case.
Other than 'get out'. I have to stick around for a few years yet. Parents still alive, kids almost grown..
Well, the disclaimer first: I'm no economic expert, and you should perhaps look for advice from that people in order to get a better idea.
My personal experience back then was to untie my savings from the affected currency and debt notes and, in order to avoid a potential bank run, keep the assets close to me.
In other words, my family and me moved our savings into US dollars and mexican gold coins, and kept some with us, and some deposited outside the country.
Obviously, you need to do this before the shit hits the fan, at least partially.
Now, with the US dollar being the actual currency that could potentially devalue, moving to foreign currency wouldn't be such a great idea, since a lot of that currency is backed with US dollars or debt notes, and so it will weaken the other currency too. In a nutshell, my personal strategy would be to start building some savings while keeping them in valued goods not tied to currency. Hyperinflation sucks balls, but normally it's a process that causes a shock, produces a devaluation of the currency and then everything readjusts to the new value. It's not normally a very long process, because the devaluation actually removes the pressure off the overpriced currency.
One more time: this is not actual economic advice. Just my personal experience on the subject. :toast
SnakeBoy
06-21-2010, 10:51 PM
I'm not panicked at all. At the same time it helps to have a functioning brain to anticipate the changes you will have to deal with in your life. If you aren't solvent and variable rate debt free when it hits the tipping point you will be well and truly fucked.
:toast Paid off my mortgage and liquid. 20% interest rates would be nice from my perspective. Will totally screw those who think everything is just peachy.
SnakeBoy
06-21-2010, 11:45 PM
It's a big shit sandwich and everyone is going to have to take a bite.
If you want to resign yourself to eating shit then have at it, I think I'll try to be in a position to pass on that sandwich.
Winehole23
06-22-2010, 01:17 AM
In the short term deflation would seem the greater danger IMO. Without re-stimulus (or even worse; war with Iran, say?) high unemployment will continue to be a drag on US growth.
All talk of inflation is proleptic, IMO. There's a lot of bad things that could happen to us before a debased currency bites us all on the ass, as it eventually must.
Winehole23
06-22-2010, 01:22 AM
That's why the only answer, as painful and ugly as it may seem, is free markets. The invisible hand. When will people understand that capitalism = freedom. We keep fighting this concept, over and over. Why ?Freedom to take a shit in the Gulf of Mexico without serious financial consequences, for example?
SnakeBoy
06-22-2010, 03:40 AM
In the short term deflation would seem the greater danger IMO. Without re-stimulus (or even worse; war with Iran, say?) high unemployment will continue to be a drag on US growth.
All talk of inflation is proleptic, IMO. There's a lot of bad things that could happen to us before a debased currency bites us all on the ass, as it eventually must.
I agree that deflation is the short term danger but I'm looking longer term. I didn't know you were on board the stimulus train WH. I think high unemployment continues to be a drag on the economy with or without re-stimulus. Re-stimulus may kick the deflation can down the road a little bit but will only make things worse when it's time to pay the piper.
RandomGuy
06-22-2010, 09:28 AM
EGfE2cLodWo
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=156597
The [Elliott wave theory magazine] issue published in early May said flatly: "The topping process is over for the countertrend rally that started in the first quarter of 2009. The next leg lower that commenced in April should now deliver a decline that will ultimately be bigger than the 2007-2009 sell-off. ... Gold poked to a new high, but in doing so, likely completed a pattern in mid-May that will lead to a multi-month selloff. ... The U.S. dollar index (NYBOT: DX-Y.NYB - News) is fulfilling EWFF's forecast for a strong advance."
All of which fits right into Prechter's repeated predictions of a massive coming deflation.
In a rare comment on individual stocks, EWFF says: "Google Inc. (NYSE: GOOG - News) made its countertrend rally on Jan. 4, four months before the DJIA and Nasdaq, and appears to be locked in a decline the EWFF also forecast last August. Its early reversal is a bearish development for the broad market, as Google is an icon of the last great stock craze. The failure of its stock price to reignite is a clear sign that the animal spirits of the old bull market are all but gone."
Hyper-inflation or massive deflation?
Who to believe?
Best bet: probably neither extreme.
I would bet towards a chunk of deflation, just because it would make the cost of gold plummet, and I would find that extremely funny. :lol
Winehole23
06-22-2010, 12:42 PM
I agree that deflation is the short term danger but I'm looking longer term. I didn't know you were on board the stimulus train WH.I was only pointing a possible downside of discontinuing unemployment bennies. That doesn't make me a supporter.
I think high unemployment continues to be a drag on the economy with or without re-stimulus. Re-stimulus may kick the deflation can down the road a little bit but will only make things worse when it's time to pay the piper.Could be. I don't see stimulus as such a big deal compared to other things.
Winehole23
06-22-2010, 12:44 PM
Any (recent or politically possible) stimulus would be dwarfed by by the costs of war, debt and bailout.
CosmicCowboy
07-15-2022, 08:55 AM
Blast from the past
RandomGuy
07-15-2022, 09:40 AM
Blast from the past
I could also bump ol' Parkers "signs hyperinflation is arriving" from teh same year.
Fiscal conservatives have been handwaving about inflation and hyperinflation forever.
The problem is that the things they think would cause a lot of inflation were never going to cause runaway inflation.
The current bout is just the crimped Chinese supply chain manifesting itself, coupled with the coincidental effects of the undesirability of Russian petrochemicals to countries with any sane moral code.
The supply crimp depends on how much appetite Chinese govt has for lockdowns. Given what is happening in their economy, their current preferences seem likely to me to change, but that is my WAG.
CosmicCowboy
07-15-2022, 10:03 AM
I could also bump ol' Parkers "signs hyperinflation is arriving" from teh same year.
Fiscal conservatives have been handwaving about inflation and hyperinflation forever.
The problem is that the things they think would cause a lot of inflation were never going to cause runaway inflation.
The current bout is just the crimped Chinese supply chain manifesting itself, coupled with the coincidental effects of the undesirability of Russian petrochemicals to countries with any sane moral code.
The supply crimp depends on how much appetite Chinese govt has for lockdowns. Given what is happening in their economy, their current preferences seem likely to me to change, but that is my WAG.
If it's simply cramped supply chains, why are thirty year mortgages 6%? Why does the Fed want to drive up unemployment?
If it's simply cramped supply chains, why are thirty year mortgages 6%? Why does the Fed want to drive up unemployment?
Widen the gap between upper and middle class.
Winehole23
07-20-2022, 01:26 PM
hypothesis: we never recovered from the lost decade of financial repression (low interest rates, low wages and low growth) after the Great Recession.
1549713602097172483
SnakeBoy
07-20-2022, 03:48 PM
lol Sandbu
CosmicCowboy
07-20-2022, 04:22 PM
If it's simply cramped supply chains, why are thirty year mortgages 6%? Why does the Fed want to drive up unemployment?
*crickets*
ChumpDumper
07-20-2022, 04:39 PM
*crickets*Easy -- it's not simply that.
CosmicCowboy
07-20-2022, 04:49 PM
Easy -- it's not simply that.
Th crickets were aimed at RG's statement that it was simply cramped Chinese supply chains but thanks for agreeing with me.
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