SF hypothetical question

[spectator]

just for fun - assuming that everything else stays the same, what percentage of 3 point shots and FT% should Malik Hairston get in order to become starting SF?

defensively, he is probably the best guy we have now at that position. however, he shot below 20% from 3 and below 60% from the free throw line last year.

nevertheless, he shot very well in the summer league and pre-season, so there is potential there. i wish he could improve to 38% from 3 and 75% from FT. maybe he got inspired from ghill's success and practiced these shots over the summer.

cheers!

[spectator]

well, idk if it's playing time related or a confidence issue, but over summer league and pre-season, when he got the minutes, he shot over 40% from 3. i wish he could do that consistently, but we all know how anthony morrow turned out.

[HarlemHeat37]

Hairston improved his NBA shooting % on jump shots by 7% from his rookie season IIRC, although both sample sizes were small..if he improves another 7% or whatever during the Summer, he would be the best option on the team at SF IMO..

The problem is that you can't just assume a player is going to show so much improvement in such little time, especially when it's a crucial part and the primary flaw of his game..I won't count him out, but it's not a guarantee at all either..

I would be happy if he could shoot 34%-ish from 3s at the NBA level, or if Gee does that + defends at a high level..they are the most athletic and strongest wings on the team by a large margin, so if they could get the NBA 3 down at a consistent level, they would be the best options for starting SF..

[ChuckD]

at least 34% from three for him to be our new 3 man for the future who can defend and become that guy for us.

34% isn't high enough. Hill shot 33% as a rookie, and was put to work and had his shot overhauled. He shot 40% last year, and got heavy minutes as a result.

The Spurs dropped from a team % of .386 in '08-'09 to .358 in '09-'10 and that caused major problems for the offense. If Hairston wants major burn, he had better shoot at least 38%, since that's really all he'll contribute to the offense. He doesn't want to be the one to be dragging down the percentage, since that will likely land him on the bench.

[spectator]

i think we can both agree that gee does not know the spurs system as well as malik - as far as defense goes. offensively, he may just need regular minutes to build his confidence. hill did it last year.

on another hand, if we do this simple math - granted it's not how it always works, but just for fun - multiply his average min. played by 5 and he produces over 10 points in 30 mins. add good defense to that and it's a great complement to the core tony-manu-hill-duncan-(hopefully)splitter.

[BadMotorscooter]

If Hairston is our ace in the hole...we're done. Rebuilding here we come.

[HarlemHeat37]

Ideally, 38 would be great, but that's a high number..I think 34 would be fine..Hairston wouldn't be a big minute starter either way, he would be an alternate player, similar to how Boston uses Tony Allen(except 34% is much higher than Tony Allen's %)..

Spurs now have Anderson as a shooter, if he pans out of course, so they could bring him in for shooting purposes..Hill has become a reliable shooter, Manu is always a reliable shooter..then there's also the other guy of the Hairston/Gee/Temple threesome(since I believe 2 of the 3 will be in the 12), which the Spurs would need to become a 34+% 3-point shooter..there's also obviously the possibility of Bonner being on the team(which I'm against), so that's another shooter..

Obviously impossible to call it right now, but hopefully all the young guys show some good shooting and defense in SL/TC..it would obviously also help a lot if Jefferson improves his shooting too, although I wouldn't count on it..

I'm just really, really hoping one of Hairston/Gee breaks out(maybe even both, although unlikely) this Summer, this system and the coaches/players would be a great place to develop guys with their athleticism/strength..

[TD 21]

I don't know that there's a specific percent he has to get to, but something around or approaching the mid-thirties is probably what it's going to take for him to crack the rotation on a full time basis. We know he's not a knockdown shooter, but he also showed a seemingly improved stroke at Summer League last season and while it's not reflected in last season's percentages, the sample size isn't big enough to draw any conclusions.

Basically, if he plays in Summer League this season similar to how he did last season, then I don't think the Spurs will sign (at least not to a guaranteed contract) another wing. If he follows that up with a solid training camp, then I think he's got the backup SF job sewn up. He'll have to play SF on this team, because he's not beating out Ginobili, Hill and Anderson for minutes at SG.

Following up on two things Harlem said...

I think Hairston and Temple will be active. The Spurs need another PG/ball handling option available, moreso for blowouts than injury. In one game if an injury occurred to one of the three primary ball handlers, they could get by by increase the other two's minutes. Blowouts, though, you don't want to have to run those three into the ground further and this is a team that could blow out quite a few teams potentially.

As for Jefferson's shooting, last season was really a down season for him. I'd expect a regression to the mean this season. It looks like he shot uncharacteristically high with the Bucks and uncharacteristically low with the Spurs, so he'll probably be back in the 35-36 range next season.

[dbestpro]

Malik needs to get above 35% to be a rotational player. Forget about starting. His size will be exposed over a period of time by offenses. In reality he just ain't that good and there is a 50-50 chance he will not even make the team.

[ChuckD]

Bogans shot 36% and you people fucking hated him and said he couldn't shoot. :lol

[spectator]

to put things in perspective, shooting 38% from 3 means you are around 50th best in the nba; 34% means 100th best.

for that matter, lebron james is 109th, tied with roger mason and kevin martin; brandon roy is 113th and lakers' rapist is 114th.

[spectator]

to put things in perspective, shooting 38% from 3 means you are around 50th best in the nba; 34% means 100th best.

for that matter, lebron james is 109th, tied with roger mason and kevin martin; brandon roy is 113th and lakers' rapist is 114th.

just to clarify, a rapist is a rap artist. :toast here's to my fav. show, arrested development.

[ChuckD]

to put things in perspective, shooting 38% from 3 means you are around 50th best in the nba; 34% means 100th best.

for that matter, lebron james is 109th, tied with roger mason and kevin martin; brandon roy is 113th and lakers' rapist is 114th.

Those players do many other things. Our SF is pretty much expected to spot up in the corner and hit threes at a good clip.

[spursfaninla]

34% isn't high enough. Hill shot 33% as a rookie, and was put to work and had his shot overhauled. He shot 40% last year, and got heavy minutes as a result.

The Spurs dropped from a team % of .386 in '08-'09 to .358 in '09-'10 and that caused major problems for the offense. If Hairston wants major burn, he had better shoot at least 38%, since that's really all he'll contribute to the offense. He doesn't want to be the one to be dragging down the percentage, since that will likely land him on the bench.

The league average 3pt shooting (if you look at the median, by team) was 35%.

That comes to .52% effective fg %.

The league average fg% was 46%, which does not take into account that 2pt shots generate free throws at a much higher rate than 3pt shots (unless it is Kobe shooting in the finals game 7, but i digress.)

You don't have to shoot that great from 3 to be pretty helpful to team efficiency.