48MOH: Addition by subtraction, the Spurs best offseason move

[jiggy_55]

Addition by subtraction, the Spurs best offseason move

Link: http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/07/03/addition-by-subtraction-the-spurs-best-offseason-move/

Two bold predictions. First, the biggest and best possible acquisition of the offseason for the San Antonio Spurs will be Tony Parker the All-NBA point guard replacing Tony Parker the above average one.

Second, the biggest offseason moves concerning the San Antonio Spurs will be those not made by their Western Conference rivals. And they just might be enough to merit keeping the core intact for one last run.

The San Antonio Spurs might have excluded themselves from being a player in the summer of LeBron, but that does not mean the offseason will not reap major benefits for the team.

At the time of this post, the best signing of the summer has been the Los Angeles Lakers locking up Steve Blake. Marketed as a league wide phenomenon, the summer of LeBron really is an Eastern Conference exclusive event, and the power shift could put the Spurs back in prime position for a Western Conference Finals date with the Lakers.

With the signing of Hakim Warrick the Phoenix Suns all but announced the departure of Amare Stoudemire, removing the team that swept the Spurs last season from the equation for at least next season.

In Utah, with so much salary cap space around the NBA and so few players deserving of it to go around, it stands within reason that Carlos Boozer has played his last game in a Jazz uniform. With Paul Millsap on board, the loss would not be as damaging as the Suns loss of Amare, but it definitely weakens the Utah Jazz.

That’s one of your Western Conference finalists and the other semifinalist out of the picture. Of the other Western Conference contenders, the Blazers have huge question marks regarding their durability and management. The Nuggets seem to have imploded and peaked, and the Rockets have yet to make a significant addition.

It would appear that the top of the Western Conference belongs to the Lakers, followed by a grouping of the Spurs, Mavericks, and Thunder.

The Thunder can rely on the internal improvement of their young, dynamic core, while Mark Cuban can only hope that the growth of Rodrigue Beaubois can offset what age diminishes in Jason Kidd and Jason Terry.

But no team in the Western Conference can claim the addition to their core of an All-NBA point guard and Europe’s top big man as the San Antonio Spurs potentially can.

And the one team whose style the Spurs were completely unequipped to deal with–the Phoenix Suns–has been broken up through free agency.

Looking back at last season, the Spurs may have been swept, but I’m not sure they would not have been a better matchup against the Lakers. The Spurs played the wrong matchup (against a team that could completely spread out the Spurs defense) at the wrong time (with Jason Richardson insanely on fire).

With this in mind, I will conclude my anti-Tony Parker trade argument with the following two statements.

Trying to match strength for strength with the Los Angeles Lakers is a useless endeavor. Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum are better than your frontline. Kobe Bryant is better than your wing player.

The best strategy then would be to offset those players as much as possible–which the Spurs can do as well as most with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and hopefully Tiago Splitter–and break through at one of their weaknesses.

Enter Tony Parker. With the rules in the NBA, quick point guards are everyone’s weakness and the San Antonio Spurs have one of the best in Parker.

For those worrying about resigning him, that’s where the summer of LeBron could put the Spurs in a winning position again.

The players have submitted their CBA proposal to the NBA, with speculation that the excess spending this summer will likely weaken the owner’s stance and result in a lockout.

Most of the teams who cleared cap space are intent on blowing their load this summer. Those that have room cleared for next season are either in undesirable locations or on non-contenders.

All of this swirls around an unknown Collective Bargaining Agreement that promises to reduce players’ salaries and will likely result in a season lost.

Therefore, it would be in Tony Parker’s best interest to workout a reasonable extension with the San Antonio Spurs in order to avoid an unfavorable CBA and an entire year’s loss of salary in the lockout season.

[silk]

Great article. But they have to not trade parker and duncan to keep at a very high level

[Interrohater]

Great article. But they have to not trade parker and duncan to keep at a very high level

Isn't that what the article is about?

[tp2021]

Addition by subtraction, the Spurs best offseason move

Link: http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/07/03/addition-by-subtraction-the-spurs-best-offseason-move/


Most of the teams who cleared cap space are intent on blowing their load this summer. Those that have room cleared for next season are either in undesirable locations or on non-contenders.
:lol

[K-State Spur]

i agree with the thought process - but it's still premature. a lot can still happen over the next couple of weeks. the rockets still have a shot at Bosh, the Mavs still have ED's non-guaranteed contract, and who knows what gift another team in the league will hand the Lakers?

[lurker23]

i agree with the thought process - but it's still premature. a lot can still happen over the next couple of weeks. the rockets still have a shot at Bosh, the Mavs still have ED's non-guaranteed contract, and who knows what gift another team in the league will hand the Lakers?

Agreed, that's the same thing I was thinking while reading the article. Right idea, but let's re-evaluate in 3 weeks.

[wildbill2u]

Spurstalk folks seem to be in a dither over having an all-star at every position in the starting five.

No team in the NBA has ever had 5 All-stars. Give it some thought. If you have a solid Big 3 you are in good shape. Most teams don't have that.

Our Biggest of the Big 3 may be on the downside of his career, but he is still capable of excellent play when not injured.

RJ was expected to add to a Big 4--but maybe that is too much to ask of any team or coach. How do you play to the strengths of players with varying types of talent and games without leaving someone out. It was clear that RJ's game wasn't able to translate to the Spurs as hoped so there went the Big 4.

Adding Splitter may give us another shot at a Big 4--but who knows if his game will blend in with the other 3? I happen to think that it will and all 4 could play effectively on the court at the same time.

[sananspursfan21]

i agree with the thought process - but it's still premature. a lot can still happen over the next couple of weeks. the rockets still have a shot at Bosh, the Mavs still have ED's non-guaranteed contract, and who knows what gift another team in the league will hand the Lakers?

+1

and the powershift in the west could put the spurs at number 1, but i'd hate to see them make it to the finals just to lose to [insert team]

[Seventyniner]

+1

and the powershift in the west could put the spurs at number 1, but i'd hate to see them make it to the finals just to lose to [insert team]

Losing in the Finals is the second-best outcome to any season. Sure beats getting swept in the second round. If nothing else, more playoff games means more revenue, leading to an increased willingness to spend by ownership.

[Cane]

I agree with the blog article that the Spurs have a pretty good shot at getting to the WCF especially if Parker is healthy and if Tiago turns out to be one of the better NBA centers. Parker had a HORRIBLE season, this guy was a top 10 player in PER in 2009 and he didn't even make it the top 80 this past season. Absolutely pathetic season but understandable due to injuries, coming off the bench, and not being able to get as much chemistry with the new guys as Manu did.

I disagree that Parker has a long-term future in San Antonio. I don't see the Spurs offering him a maxxed out contract past the TD era since it'd stifle their financial future and Parker's too patriotic (meaning he's going to weaken his NBA health by playing for France in the future...Spurs shouldn't gamble on that since Parker would be their franchise player if he's maxxed). If Parker get back to his 55 points, 2009 self he should be able to get attention from NYC and any other ballclubs with capspace next season although the Knicks have been recently rumored to grab Monta Ellis.

[Magdalena M]

The positive: Adding Splitter, a healthy Parker, growth from Blair and Hill, maybe Anderson.

The negative: The win total of the Spurs the last 5 seasons: 63, 58, 56, 54, 50. And most importantly: the decline of Tim Duncan.

[AFBlue]

I agree with the blog article that the Spurs have a pretty good shot at getting to the WCF especially if Parker is healthy and if Tiago turns out to be one of the better NBA centers. Parker had a HORRIBLE season, this guy was a top 10 player in PER in 2009 and he didn't even make it the top 80 this past season. Absolutely pathetic season but understandable due to injuries, coming off the bench, and not being able to get as much chemistry with the new guys as Manu did.

I disagree that Parker has a long-term future in San Antonio. I don't see the Spurs offering him a maxxed out contract past the TD era since it'd stifle their financial future and Parker's too patriotic (meaning he's going to weaken his NBA health by playing for France in the future...Spurs shouldn't gamble on that since Parker would be their franchise player if he's maxxed). If Parker get back to his 55 points, 2009 self he should be able to get attention from NYC and any other ballclubs with capspace next season although the Knicks have been recently rumored to grab Monta Ellis.

Signing Parker to a max extension doesn't "stifle their financial future" if he's considered to be a main component of that future. Everyone had similar questions about Manu's future with the ballclub, but then he went out and slaughtered teams for two straight months to end the season...his reward, a max contract extension.

I see no reason why a max contract extension won't be offered if Tony comes back healthy/fresh and has a solid start to the season. And as the original author states, with uncertainty looming regarding future salaries, I'm pretty sure Tony would take it.

[Harry Callahan]

Fear of the unknown could be a motivator for Parker, but I don't see the Spurs breaking the bank for any player not knowing the CBA picture.

[Cane]

Signing Parker to a max extension doesn't "stifle their financial future" if he's considered to be a main component of that future. Everyone had similar questions about Manu's future with the ballclub, but then he went out and slaughtered teams for two straight months to end the season...his reward, a max contract extension.

I see no reason why a max contract extension won't be offered if Tony comes back healthy/fresh and has a solid start to the season. And as the original author states, with uncertainty looming regarding future salaries, I'm pretty sure Tony would take it.

I don't see Parker being a main component for the Spurs future due to his health history, patriotism, age, etc. Parker's max extension would be a burden compared to the Manu's and he doesn't have as dedicated of a fan following in SA. Spurs could use the uncertainty to their advantage.

[ChuckD]

Fear of the unknown could be a motivator for Parker, but I don't see the Spurs breaking the bank for any player not knowing the CBA picture.

I think they're trying to wait for Tony to wrap his head around the fact that no one can pay him as much as the Spurs, and that he won't be getting a full boat extension offer. My guess is that they'll want to lock him down for 3-4 years on a contract that pays him about as much per year as Manu. I'm sure they'll offer that to him eventually, and give him enough time to consider that he will NOT do better after the new CBA takes effect, not with the Spurs or anyone else.

[ajh18]

Also, when has a premier, max-type free agent EVER chosen San Antonio? For that matter, when was the last time the Spurs successfully traded for an all-star level talent? Terry Cummings? Rodman? I still believe that a healthy Tony Parker is the best free agent that the Spurs could get to come to SA in the foreseeable future... and guess what? He knows the system. You get an opportunity for a top-tier player at his position to come to your team, and you take it... especially when the next best option is completely uncertain and unsupported by precedent.

[Mel_13]

Signing Parker to a max extension doesn't "stifle their financial future" if he's considered to be a main component of that future. Everyone had similar questions about Manu's future with the ballclub, but then he went out and slaughtered teams for two straight months to end the season...his reward, a max contract extension.

I see no reason why a max contract extension won't be offered if Tony comes back healthy/fresh and has a solid start to the season. And as the original author states, with uncertainty looming regarding future salaries, I'm pretty sure Tony would take it.

Apples and oranges.

Manu's max extension was 3yrs/40m, with two of the three years on a team with Tim Duncan. Also, if the Spurs failed to extend Manu he would be a FA in the summer of LeBron with all the cap space that multiple teams have been creating for years.

A max extension for Tony is 5yrs/90M, with only one of the five years on a team with Tim Duncan. If the Spurs fail to extend Tony, he will be a FA in the summer of 2011 under the yet to be determined terms of the new CBA. It is entirely likely that there will be an extended lockout followed by a new CBA in which maximum contracts will be shorter in length and lower in dollars.

[AFBlue]

I don't see Parker being a main component for the Spurs future due to his health history, patriotism, age, etc. Parker's max extension would be a burden compared to the Manu's and he doesn't have as dedicated of a fan following in SA. Spurs could use the uncertainty to their advantage.

1) Parker's health history over the last 9 seasons has actually been really good (last year's pile of nagging injuries was an anomoly).

2) Parker is a top tier player, so it makes sense that he would be asked to play for his country. Would you deny a max extension to Chris Bosh because he's patriotic?

3) Parker just turned 28 years old, which is a year younger than Joe Johnson...who just signed a max extension.

4) Fan following doesn't determine the burden of a contract...winning or losing does. And fans won't care who is on the team if they're losing.

[Cane]

Also, when has a premier, max-type free agent EVER chosen San Antonio? For that matter, when was the last time the Spurs successfully traded for an all-star level talent? Terry Cummings? Rodman? I still believe that a healthy Tony Parker is the best free agent that the Spurs could get to come to SA in the foreseeable future... and guess what? He knows the system. You get an opportunity for a top-tier player at his position to come to your team, and you take it... especially when the next best option is completely uncertain and unsupported by precedent.

Tim Duncan and David Robinson?

[AFBlue]

Apples and oranges.

Manu's max extension was 3yrs/40m, with two of the three years on a team with Tim Duncan. Also, if the Spurs failed to extend Manu he would be a FA in the summer of LeBron with all the cap space that multiple teams have been creating for years.

A max extension for Tony is 5yrs/90M, with only one of the five years on a team with Tim Duncan. If the Spurs fail to extend Tony, he will be a FA in the summer of 2011 under the yet to be determined terms of the new CBA. It is entirely likely that there will be an extended lockout followed by a new CBA in which maximum contracts will be shorter in length and lower in dollars.

I understand the max extensions are different, but the free agency situation isn't. If Tony plays well this upcoming season, he'll be a top 3 FA and will certainly garner max-type money from teams with cap space. And if he leaves, the Spurs will likely not be in a position to replace him with a like-talent player...similar to Manu's situation this past year.

My initial stipulation is that the Spurs FO must believe Tony is a core piece to their future to offer the extension, because I realize many of the years will likely be played without Duncan.

There is risk either way, but I personally feel the riskier proposition is going into the summer next year with the possibility he might bolt and having nothing but two aged players on large, untradeable contracts. Dunno if the Spurs see it that way though.

[Mel_13]

I understand the max extensions are different, but the free agency situation isn't. If Tony plays well this upcoming season, he'll be a top 3 FA and will certainly garner max-type money from teams with cap space.

The free agency situation in 2011 will be much different than in 2010. There will be fewer teams with cap space, a new CBA will be in place, and the maximum length and dollars of max contract are likely to be reduced from current levels.

If Tony was a FA today, he would be a candidate for a max or near max contract. If he had been a FA last summer coming off his best year, he would have been a candidate for a max contract (actually, no way he makes to free agency last summer because the Spurs would have extended him during the 2008-09 season). In the summer of 2011, however, things will be very different.

For all the public posturing, Tony's best financial bet is to agree to an extension with the Spurs.

[Cane]

1) Parker's health history over the last 9 seasons has actually been really good (last year's pile of nagging injuries was an anomoly).

2) Parker is a top tier player, so it makes sense that he would be asked to play for his country. Would you deny a max extension to Chris Bosh because he's patriotic?

3) Parker just turned 28 years old, which is a year younger than Joe Johnson...who just signed a max extension.

4) Fan following doesn't determine the burden of a contract...winning or losing does. And fans won't care who is on the team if they're losing.


1) True although its still a "what have you done lately" league. He's still patriotic and has said he's going to play for France. His style of play, getting older, nagging injuries, patriotism etc. just doesn't seem good for a post-Duncan Spurs franchise player.

2) Parker needs to work his way back to the top. Bosh plays a more valuable position since the NBA sucks when it comes to big men but has a lot of talented guards; so yea in that hypothetical I can still see the Spurs going for him. Team USA also doesn't rely on one player as much as Team France would for Parker. Parker plays as the MVP for France in both role/minutes and without sacrificing his body they're not going anywhere. Whereas Team USA is much more deep and less demanding of its players.

3) I believe Atlanta's going to change ownership about halfway into his contract so they won't have to foot the bill. Not sure if Johnson is a good comparison since he's considered very overrated, Atlanta's a mediocre organization that might change hands in the near future, and many believe that he's simply not a max player.

4) True although I thought Manu was such a fan favorite that season ticket holders were demanding him to come back or they'd give up.

-----

I can see Parker getting a huge deal from other ballclubs especially if he gets back to his 2009 self but I don't see the Spurs offering him a long term, maxxed out contract though.

I think George Hill's contract is ending in a season as well so they're going to have to give him a good offer. I see the Spurs leaning towards Hill unless he has a horrible season when it comes to the future...if Hill keeps improving he's going to be worth a lot as well.

[AFBlue]

The free agency situation in 2011 will be much different than in 2010. There will be fewer teams with cap space, a new CBA will be in place, and the maximum length and dollars of max contract are likely to be reduced from current levels.

If Tony was a FA today, he would be a candidate for a max or near max contract. If he had been a FA last summer coming off his best year, he would have been a candidate for a max contract (actually, no way he makes to free agency last summer because the Spurs would have extended him during the 2008-09 season). In the summer of 2011, however, things will be very different.

For all the public posturing, Tony's best financial bet is to agree to an extension with the Spurs.

I also think it's in Tony's best interest to agree to an extension with the Spurs. Why are we debating again? :lol

[Mel_13]

I also think it's in Tony's best interest to agree to an extension with the Spurs. Why are we debating again? :lol

True.

I'm absolutely convinced that if Tiago signs with the Spurs, they don't even consider trading Tony until the trade deadline. If the team is playing well, they won't trade him then either.

[MaNu4Tres]

True.

I'm absolutely convinced that if Tiago signs with the Spurs, they don't even consider trading Tony until the trade deadline. If the team is playing well, they won't trade him then either.

I agree to this.

Although, if Spurs wait to the deadline to trade Parker they will receive watered down proposals compared to the beginning of the year. Unless Parker agrees to an extension with the new team.

[AFBlue]

True.

I'm absolutely convinced that if Tiago signs with the Spurs, they don't even consider trading Tony until the trade deadline. If the team is playing well, they won't trade him then either.

Right...and sometime after, max offer or not, I'm confident an extension is agreed to.

By the way, would you expect the revised CBA to make some exception for previously agreed upon contracts as to how it relates to the overall cap situation? Seems to me that teams would be inherently penalized for coming to long-term agreements with their players prior to 2011 if the CBA brings max salaries and lower caps.

[Mel_13]

Right...and sometime after, max offer or not, I'm confident an extension is agreed to.

By the way, would you expect the revised CBA to make some exception for previously agreed upon contracts as to how it relates to the overall cap situation? Seems to me that teams would be inherently penalized for coming to long-term agreements with their players prior to 2011 if the CBA brings max salaries and lower caps.

If the owners win and get something like a hard cap, it will have to be phased in over a period of years. Too many teams way over the cap now.

Now there have been reports that the owners will try to retroactively reduce the amounts of existing contracts to bring them into compliance with new rules. If they push for that, there may not be a 2011-12 season at all. If you want to be sure you see Tim Duncan play again, buy a ticket for a game this season.

[TD 21]

I agree with the article.

It rarely, if ever, get's mentioned, but we really haven't seen Ginobili/Parker at their best at the same time. Since Ginobili's breakout season in 07-08 and Parker's breakout season in 08-09, one has always been either injured or just working his way back from being injured, but not in game shape or rhythm. We haven't seen them both healthy, rested and fresh off a summer where they were able to dedicate time to working on their games.

Statistically, I don't expect either to resemble the totals they did in those seasons, because the depth of scoring and overall talent level on the team is superior now to what it was then. Also, with both healthy and rested, one won't have to make up for the others absence or sporadic play.

But overall, if their level of play is reminiscent of their peak seasons, then right their this team becomes better. Possibly substantially. No other team in the league can boast two All-NBA caliber performers together in the same back court.

As for the Western Conference, if the off season plays out how I expect it to, the Spurs should enter next season as the second best team in the conference. Because of their potential for internal improvement and in the Trail Blazers case, improved health, either the Thunder or the Trail Blazers could pass the Spurs, but it's difficult to envision any of the others doing so, barring something unforeseen.

[yavozerb]

Amare gone...
Boozer gone..

If the spurs can truly sign Tiago and either re-sign RJ or a legit SF then the Spurs have moved up to the 2nd best team in the western conference. I would love to say they are better than the lakers but I am realist and I believe they are still a little behind the defending champs. This is exactly the reason why many believe the SAS front office is the best in the NBA. They weathered the TP rumors and seemed to realize that with a motivated TP this coming season could be very interesting with aslightly weakend western conference. Again, lets hope to for a splitter contract soon and SF to follow shortly there after for what could be one of the final runs in the TD era.

[Spurminator]

Think we'll also have to see what the Mavs are able to do.

[Kindergarten Cop]

Amare gone...
Boozer gone..

If the spurs can truly sign Tiago and either re-sign RJ or a legit SF then the Spurs have moved up to the 2nd best team in the western conference. I would love to say they are better than the lakers but I am realist and I believe they are still a little behind the defending champs. This is exactly the reason why many believe the SAS front office is the best in the NBA. They weathered the TP rumors and seemed to realize that with a motivated TP this coming season could be very interesting with aslightly weakend western conference. Again, lets hope to for a splitter contract soon and SF to follow shortly there after for what could be one of the final runs in the TD era.

I'll wait until we have a better handle on FA before making predictions, but I still think you underestimate a few teams in the West (OKC, Denver, Dallas, Houston, and Portland). It does appear that the Suns and Jazz will take huge hits with their losses, but tomorrow will be huge in deciding who the very good teams in the NBA truly are.

[yavozerb]

Think we'll also have to see what the Mavs are able to do.

The spurs were the better team last season and I expect the the spurs to start the season as a better team next season. I expect Haywood to return and pretty much have the same starting roster as last season. The mavs will always be a tough out, but I truly believe the spurs with the hopeful additions on the inside will widen the gap between the two teams.

[yavozerb]

I'll wait until we have a better handle on FA before making predictions, but I still think you underestimate a few teams in the West (OKC, Denver, Dallas, Houston, and Portland). It does appear that the Suns and Jazz will take huge hits with their losses, but tomorrow will be huge in deciding who the very good teams in the NBA truly are.

Good point..I forgot OKC and yes they are an up and coming team, but I did not forget portland. The blazers seemed to be the walking wounded come every playoff season and that is not good. I am not making predictions but am simply pointing out that the spurs have indeed risen in terms of team ratings by simply doing nothing (when they could have easily traded players like TP, like many wrongfully wanted).

[xmas1997]

I think the Mavs are still trying to make some decent moves to get even better. I heard that they are trying to get Jermaine O'Neal. That would make them a hell of a lot better and maybe better than the Spurs.

[yavozerb]

I think the Mavs are still trying to make some decent moves to get even better. I heard that they are trying to get Jermaine O'Neal. That would make them a hell of a lot better and maybe better than the Spurs.

personally, I would prefer o'neal over haywood with dallas at the 5. I think the opposite and believe this would make the mavs an even more perimeter oriented team with Dirk at the 4.