new outlook on the western conference

[spectator]

with the departure of amare and boozer from the western conference, the west becomes weaker and the jazz / suns look to drop down from their play-off spot from last year. assuming that the spurs sign someone at sf at least as good as rj and bring splitter from spain, what do you think of the favorites in the race for the west? the jazz and the suns made at least conference semi-finals, just like the spurs and most can argue that without those two guys (and barring any additions) the spurs are the better team.

thus, do you think the spurs have enough to be a definitive number 2? do you think that this is the year when portland/okc/memphis break through to have a long play-off run?

thoughts/opinions/comments

[ducks]

the spurs have to get by the lakers

thunder are going to be good along with the mavs

[spectator]

i agree - lakers are still the no 1 team right now. mavs always seem to never be good enough. i do not know who they can get to be better than the spurs.

we just have to hope we have enough juice to fight these younger teams like por/okc.

[Brazil]

Mavs will still be solid / OKC is going to be a very dangerous team / Yao is back so I guess Houston will be there too.

but yeah west is weaker

[Seventyniner]

Sure it's an easier road to the WCF now, but the Spurs are definitely aiming higher.

[Cane]

2 teams got weaker. Some teams got potentially stronger due to health, draft picks, trades, and there's still a lot of time for further power-shifting in the Lebron aftermath.

Of the teams that didn't make it in the playoffs in the West; these imo have a pretty good shot this season if they stay healthy and if their acquisitions prove to be productive: Hornets, Clippers, Kings, and Houston. These teams should join the playoffs race. The T-wolves and GSW seem like they're still doomed and probably will be the worst teams in the NBA. Not sure how I feel about Memphis.

Of the teams that did make the playoffs, I think that the Jazz and Suns took the worst hit since they lost their star bigs. I think the Suns will suffer the worst since Amar'e basically carried that team in the second half of the season. The rest should stay around the same although the Spurs, Mavs, Nuggets, and Portland have the potential to get better due to their new players or being healthy. OKC now has playoffs experience and should also only get better.

The Lakers could even decline a bit if health and surgeries affect their durability. They were only 7 or so wins above the 6-8 seeds after all. LA looked vulnerable enough that if they didn't have HCA or some lucky buzzer beaters they could've lost to playoff rookies in the Thunder.

[jason1301]

I agee with Cane, Lakers need to upgrade their roster and stay healthy or they will be very very beatable.

Thunder, Houston, and Mavs seem to be the teams together with the Spurs to challenge the Lakers.

[DPG21920]

Utah got weaker, but Millsap is a good player.

[TDMVPDPOY]

houston? stop overrating them man, they havnt done shit..with or without yao, they are still fodder

[AFBlue]

The Lakers could even decline a bit if health and surgeries affect their durability. They were only 7 or so wins above the 6-8 seeds after all. LA looked vulnerable enough that if they didn't have HCA or some lucky buzzer beaters they could've lost to playoff rookies in the Thunder.

Lakers are still the team to beat in the west, no matter how much the rest of the conference has been weakened. They probably upgraded with Blake over Farmar and the only other main threat to leave is Shannon Brown.

Obviously Kobe's health is a big factor, but they've still got a two-time champion core of players. It's unfortunate, but they're still the measuring stick regardless of the rest of the conference.

[Stump]

I think there is more to be played out. Teams with cap room like the Knicks and Nets need to fill out their rosters, and will likely target players like Jefferson, Scola, and Haywood. If a few guys like that head east as well, the west could get further deflated.

Tentatively, I'd place the Lakers up front, with Mavs, Spurs, and Thunder in the second tier. A few other teams have potential.

[EIC]

As of right now:

1. Lakers
. . .
. . .
. . .
2. Spurs
3. Thunder
4. Mavs

My personal opinion is that Kobe is due for a significant drop off in his production. The problem is that even a little bit of a drop off will have major consequences for the Lakers. This is because the second Kobe senses that he is no longer the go-to guy, he is going to act like a little bitch and ball hog like it's his job. He will sell his own team down the river to protect his own image.

Fish is getting older and Artest is a liability. Dude is ridiculously unreliable. IMO, the Lakers are one key injury and a little Kobe slippage away from totally imploding. If not this season then definitely the next one when Phil checks out. In fact, the catalyst will probably be the Lakers losing in the Finals a la 2004.

OKC needs a legit center. I also have a feeling they may be a one-hit-wonder not unlike New Orleans of a few years ago. The Mavs will never win a Finals; the basketball gods do not approve of Jason Terry or Mark Cuban.

If Splitter pans out and the Spurs can get some decent perimeter players, they could have a legitimate shot at a title in 2011 or 2012 depending on when the Lakers implode.

[EricB]

With Boozer leaving it shakes things up a tad.

Amare leaving Phoenix really throws a wrench into things...

[TDMVPDPOY]

contenders
lakers
thunder
portland
spurs
nuggets
clippers
utah

suns wont make the playoffs...

[chazley]

contenders
lakers
thunder
portland
spurs
nuggets
clippers
utah

suns wont make the playoffs...

I wouldn't sleep on the Suns being a playoff team. They're very deep, and I think Hakim Warrick fits in REALLY well there. Stoudemire is a big loss on the offensive end, but defensively they might be even better than last year. Frye/Warrick/Lopez is still a decent frontcourt, not to mention Nash/Stoudemire/Hill and some nice bench players still there. Wouldn't be shocked if they were a 6/7/8 seed.

Spurs I project to be a #3 seed behind the Lakers and Thunder. Mavs also will have a nice regular season team, so I wouldn't be shocked if they got the #3 seed ahead of us. Haywood is a big factor there.

Nuggets/Blazers I see taking steps back, but still making the playoffs. Clippers are a nice pick, and Utah will also be there, but I think those 2 teams will be fighting for a playoff spot.

Sleeper teams: Houston, Memphis.

All in all, I think the Western Conference is still deep, but there's too many pretenders now. Honestly, only teams I see having a chance to beat the Lakers are the Spurs and Thunder. The Thunder need to find a banger down low, and the Spurs need to find a defensive wing before the Lakers start sweating though.

[TDMVPDPOY]

forgot to list the ponies, but they are fodder as usual

[YoMamaIsCallin]

The Suns will probably be BETTER without Amare. He is the classic I-get-my-stats-but-I-don't-help-the-team-win guy. He doesn't pass, he doesn't rebound, he doesn't play any defense on his man except for trying to block shots. He's kind of a better offensive version of Antoine Walker.

Of course with Sarver there, they probably won't get anyone better than Warrick to fill the middle, who's serviceable but will never be a quality NBA big man. But I'd even argue that Warrick is an upgrade for that team. There'll be more shots to spread among the others, and Warrick can score from 15 feet in so they have to honor that.

[dbestpro]

The Suns will probably be BETTER without Amare. He is the classic I-get-my-stats-but-I-don't-help-the-team-win guy. He doesn't pass, he doesn't rebound, he doesn't play any defense on his man except for trying to block shots. He's kind of a better offensive version of Antoine Walker.
.

I would agree with this is the league respected team play. The league is designed to be all about the star players. The Suns would be good in the Euro league, though. Too bad for the Suns. They will be good enough to be on the back end of the lottery and stuck in neutral.

[tuncaboylu]

I wouldn't sleep on the Suns being a playoff team. They're very deep, and I think Hakim Warrick fits in REALLY well there. Stoudemire is a big loss on the offensive end, but defensively they might be even better than last year. Frye/Warrick/Lopez is still a decent frontcourt, not to mention Nash/Stoudemire/Hill and some nice bench players still there. Wouldn't be shocked if they were a 6/7/8 seed.

Spurs I project to be a #3 seed behind the Lakers and Thunder. Mavs also will have a nice regular season team, so I wouldn't be shocked if they got the #3 seed ahead of us. Haywood is a big factor there.

Nuggets/Blazers I see taking steps back, but still making the playoffs. Clippers are a nice pick, and Utah will also be there, but I think those 2 teams will be fighting for a playoff spot.

Sleeper teams: Houston, Memphis.

All in all, I think the Western Conference is still deep, but there's too many pretenders now. Honestly, only teams I see having a chance to beat the Lakers are the Spurs and Thunder. The Thunder need to find a banger down low, and the Spurs need to find a defensive wing before the Lakers start sweating though.


Which Stoudamire is still there ? :lol :lol :lol

[CaptainLate]

Mavs will still be solid / OKC is going to be a very dangerous team / Yao is back so I guess Houston will be there too.

Yao won't last the season. :nope Sadly, he and Portland's Oden are destined to have injury-plagued careers. :(

[CaptainLate]

with the departure of amare and boozer from the western conference, the west becomes weaker and the jazz / suns look to drop down from their play-off spot from last year. assuming that the spurs sign someone at sf at least as good as rj and bring splitter from spain, what do you think of the favorites in the race for the west?

thoughts/opinions/comments

Why play "What if..."? :nope

You should have waited till the dust settles before starting this thread. :rolleyes

[AFBlue]

As of right now:

1. Lakers
. . .
. . .
. . .
2. Spurs
3. Thunder
4. Mavs

My personal opinion is that Kobe is due for a significant drop off in his production. The problem is that even a little bit of a drop off will have major consequences for the Lakers. This is because the second Kobe senses that he is no longer the go-to guy, he is going to act like a little bitch and ball hog like it's his job. He will sell his own team down the river to protect his own image.

Fish is getting older and Artest is a liability. Dude is ridiculously unreliable. IMO, the Lakers are one key injury and a little Kobe slippage away from totally imploding. If not this season then definitely the next one when Phil checks out. In fact, the catalyst will probably be the Lakers losing in the Finals a la 2004.

OKC needs a legit center. I also have a feeling they may be a one-hit-wonder not unlike New Orleans of a few years ago. The Mavs will never win a Finals; the basketball gods do not approve of Jason Terry or Mark Cuban.

If Splitter pans out and the Spurs can get some decent perimeter players, they could have a legitimate shot at a title in 2011 or 2012 depending on when the Lakers implode.

There is so much homerism in this post it's almost impossible to respond to. I don't think anyone is saying it's not plausibe the Lakers take a step back, but I think you just described "implosion" from a two-time defending champion team with its core group still intact.

You did hit on the key point that would move them back to the pack, which is Kobe suffering more nagging injuries or especially a signifcant one. Beyond that, I don't see nearly the same scenario you do.

[da_suns_fan]

Evidently, Spurs fans have convinced themselves that Amare Stoudemire is the difference between a Suns team that sweeps the Spurs and advances to the WCF and a Suns team that fails to make the playoffs.

[AFBlue]

Evidently, Spurs fans have convinced themselves that Amare Stoudemire is the difference between a Suns team that sweeps the Spurs and advances to the WCF and a Suns team that fails to make the playoffs.

Amare is one of the best pick-and-roll players in the league. His athleticism and ability to finish in traffic caused the Spurs nightmares in every matchup. I don't care how good of a fit Hakim Warrick is, he's a homeless man's Amare Stoudamire.

I do think that re-signing Frye was a positive, provided he shows consistency. But, given how he absolutely torched the Spurs and then laid an enormous, hope-crushing egg against the Lakers, I don't know how much you can count on him.

When you look at it, they still have some nice pieces. But, losing Stoudamire (especially second-half Amar'e that was arguably the most dominant big in the league over that stretch) is a HUGE loss.

Having said all that...with the way the rest of the west has been weakened and given that half of the conference makes the playoffs, I don't see them as a lottery team next year.

[Brazil]

Yao won't last the season. :nope Sadly, he and Portland's Oden are destined to have injury-plagued careers. :(

I wish Yao the best and I wish he will be healthy but yeah I see what you mean.
Houston has a nice team they made a good run last year w/o yao, if Yao is healthy then Scola will become again a damn efficient role player not forcing things and Ariza will be more focus on Defense instead of trying to be the houston kobe bryant.
I can see Houston making some noise next year

[coyotes_geek]

Evidently, Spurs fans have convinced themselves that Amare Stoudemire is the difference between a Suns team that sweeps the Spurs and advances to the WCF and a Suns team that fails to make the playoffs.

Well, the only low post presence on the team just bolted. The backcourt looks nice, but the frontcourt is nothing but a bunch of perimeter shooting big men or hustle guys with no offensive game. Basically what the Suns are right now is just a better version of the Golden State Warriors. Is that good enough to make the playoffs? Probably, but it's debateable.

[Cane]

Evidently, Spurs fans have convinced themselves that Amare Stoudemire is the difference between a Suns team that sweeps the Spurs and advances to the WCF and a Suns team that fails to make the playoffs.

Yup although I think they're still in the race to get to the playoffs next season. Amar'e was playing an incredible second half of the season, he looked like the second best big man in the NBA. Amar'e was the biggest mismatch problem the Spurs and just about every non-LA team has had playing against PHX.

[spursfan1000]

houston? stop overrating them man, they havnt done shit..with or without yao, they are still fodder


Don't you think this lineup can do some damage?

Brooks
Martin
Ariza
Scola
Yao

if Martin and Yao can stay healthy, that can be a damn good team.

[iManu]

Don't you think this lineup can do some damage?

Brooks
Martin
Ariza
Scola
Yao

if Martin and Yao can stay healthy, that can be a damn good team.


Yeah, but that's where that team ends. I don't expect Yao to show up. I wish him the best, too, but I'm afraid he's too big to repair to former "heights."

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Yao and healthy should never ever be used in the same sentence

[YoMamaIsCallin]

Amare is one of the best pick-and-roll players in the league. His athleticism and ability to finish in traffic caused the Spurs nightmares in every matchup. I don't care how good of a fit Hakim Warrick is, he's a homeless man's Amare Stoudamire.

The Spurs beat the Amare/Nash Suns consistently until they woke up and got some role players who could play defense, rebound, and bring some team-oriented energy. Amare gets his but he did NOT beat the Spurs.

[Jace]

Lakers and Thunder are still the clear top dogs

[TD 21]

The Thunder never were a top dog. At this writing, the Spurs are the second best team in the conference. We haven't seen whatever improvement the Thunder may make (I'm talking in terms of growth from their young players) and the other conference semi-finalists just got significantly weaker, by losing Stoudemire and Boozer, respectively.

As I said a few days ago, I think the Thunder and Trail Blazers have the potential to pass the Spurs without any changes, because of their young talent and in the Trail Blazers case, it might only take just staying healthy. But short of that, barring the unforeseen, I don't see any other team in the West positioned to pass the Spurs next season.

[Blackjack]

The Spurs beat the Amare/Nash Suns consistently until they woke up and got some role players who could play defense, rebound, and bring some team-oriented energy. Amare gets his but he did NOT beat the Spurs.

:tu

A major part of the Spurs' success against the Suns was allowing Amar'e to go nuts and take everyone else out of the game by closing down the three-point line. The Spurs were the rope to Amar'e's dope.

It wasn't until the Spurs lost the personnel to be the Spurs and the Suns found the type of personnel and chemistry in their supporting cast to make the next step that the Suns finally broke through this last year.

I actually wouldn't be all that surprised if the Suns surprised some people next year if their fortunate enough health-wise. They've got a good group.

[DirkISaCocLuvinPuSSy]

umm...the sleepers are mep/sac, the kings got crazy bigs now with thompson, cousins, and whiteside, a big ol pg in evens, nice shooter in that Israeli dude caspi or w/e his name is, and some other nice role players I see them taking pho place, houston sucks, yao will never play a full season, if he could yea, remember he almost took the lakers him self a couple years ago and as usual he got hurt. The thunder are gunna be beast but the jazz, nuggets, blazers, and mavs idk have bad luck and self esteem issues they never pan out.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

A major part of the Spurs' success against the Suns was allowing Amar'e to go nuts and take everyone else out of the game by closing down the three-point line. The Spurs were the rope to Amar'e's dope.

Exactly. And I was always amazed that the so-called "expert commentators" never caught onto this. It was always, "Amare scores 44 but the Spurs somehow prevail! How could this have happened!" Geez, it was so obvious to see what they were doing.

And then Popovich would switch it up in the last 8-9 minutes of the game and challenge the P&R with help defense, and the Suns never seemed to catch on. They'd revert to Nash becoming a scorer, and they'd just try to make Nash shoot long two-pointers or tough layup attempts, while Amare just stood there with his thumb up his ass. Nash did OK but it wasn't enough back in the day. I have to give a lot of credit to Alvin Gentry for figuring this out and utilizing his whole team. D'Antoni is so overrated it's ridiculous.

[AFBlue]

Exactly. And I was always amazed that the so-called "expert commentators" never caught onto this. It was always, "Amare scores 44 but the Spurs somehow prevail! How could this have happened!" Geez, it was so obvious to see what they were doing.

And then Popovich would switch it up in the last 8-9 minutes of the game and challenge the P&R with help defense, and the Suns never seemed to catch on. They'd revert to Nash becoming a scorer, and they'd just try to make Nash shoot long two-pointers or tough layup attempts, while Amare just stood there with his thumb up his ass. Nash did OK but it wasn't enough back in the day. I have to give a lot of credit to Alvin Gentry for figuring this out and utilizing his whole team. D'Antoni is so overrated it's ridiculous.

I don't get how losing Amar'e and replacing him with a much less talented player keeps them in the same league as they were though. If the Suns effectively lose their ability to score in the paint, then they become a predictable outside shooting ball club.

Amar'e may not have put them over the top, but he certainly kept them in it. Now they have a bunch of role players and one less dominant superstar.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

Because there's a difference between being talented and helping your team win.

[AFBlue]

Because there's a difference between being talented and helping your team win.

Are you suggesting Amar'e didn't help his team win?

[YoMamaIsCallin]

The Suns in the D'Antoni era were (perhaps not intentionally) built to win in the regular season, not the playoffs. The get-it-and-shoot-it philosophy works when opponents are tired from the regular season grind and travel and they only get to see it once every few weeks. In the playoffs teams are focused, they get to study how to play against the opponent, they aren't tired (no back to backs, days off, much less travel), and they step up their defense. They figure out how to beat a team like the Suns.

Here's D'Antoni and Amar'e together (Amar'e was out for one of these playoffs with the knee). Regular season first then playoffs.


PHO 2004-05 62 20 .756 1st in Pacific 9 6 .600 Lost to San Antonio Spurs in Conference Finals
PHO 2005-06 54 28 .659 1st in Pacific 10 10 .500 Lost to Dallas Mavericks in Conference Finals
PHO 2006-07 61 21 .744 1st in Pacific 6 5 .545 Lost to San Antonio Spurs in Conference Semifinals
PHO 2007-08 55 27 .671 2nd in Pacific 1 4 .200 Lost to San Antonio Spurs in First Round

See? They kill in the regular season but sink to an average team in the playoffs.

[Solid D]

Well, now that the Jazz just traded 2 1st rounders for Al Jefferson, they remain a strong player in the west.

[smrattler]

On the top end, not much has changed IMO.

Injuries, overall health, and the Lakers.

Still our biggest hurdles.

[dbestpro]

Utah replaces Boozer with Jefferson.
Phx replaces Amare with Warrick.
Dallas replaces Dampier with Chandler.
San Antonio replaces Mahinmi with Splitter.

I think I know who got better.