Analytics - Morey on Miami Heat [Archive]

Indazone

07-10-2010, 11:18 AM

Morey on Bosh: If he forms a triumvirate with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Miami, the Rockets believe the team won't have enough supporting talent to support a championship team. The Rockets believe such a pairing would produce a 45-win team.

Do you think Morey was right that the Heat do not have what it takes to win more than 45 wins?

honestfool84

07-10-2010, 11:20 AM

Do you think Morey was right that the Heat do not have what it takes to win more than 45 wins?

right now, on paper, i don't think they have what it takes to win more than 70 games... but it'll be close.

DPG21920

07-10-2010, 11:22 AM

With their contract numbers coming out and them still having around 9M in cap space, I think that number will be easily eclipsed. I don't think anyone was expecting them to leave that much money on the table.

Their roster will be somewhat bare and they will probably only have a legit 8 man rotation, but if they won that many games last year with a bunch of scrubs, I think they pass that mark this year.

DesignatedT

07-10-2010, 11:24 AM

Indazone

07-10-2010, 11:25 AM

There is another precedent and that is the Boston Celtics with the pairing of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Their roster was somewhat depleted too but produced a huge number of wins.

Bruno

07-10-2010, 11:26 AM

Morey has built a lottery team. He surely has a lot of knowledge about 45-wins teams.

Indazone

07-10-2010, 11:26 AM

I wouldn't bet against Morey though. If I were opposing teams, I would just pack the paint and dare the Heat to make outside shots. Also their second unit would absolutely suck.

Indazone

07-10-2010, 11:27 AM

Morey has built a lottery team. He surely has a lot of knowledge about 45-wins teams.

lol touche'

TDMVPDPOY

07-10-2010, 11:32 AM

this is stupid man

look at the nash suns under dantoni, theres no point in havin a full roster if ur coach only plays a strict 6-7 man player rotation

so as far miami is concern, watever is left will fill that starting for them and rest would be dleagues, ring chasers or veterans on the cheap...they will up the team just to meet the quota doesnt mean they play all 15

DPG21920

07-10-2010, 11:34 AM

Also, who cares? If you are a team, you do what Miami just did. You get the best players you can and worry about the rest later.

Bruno

07-10-2010, 11:35 AM

timvp

07-10-2010, 11:39 AM

LeBron with 11 random D-Leaguers can win 50 regular season games. Morey needs to put down the pipe.

ElNono

07-10-2010, 11:43 AM

Morey needs to run the numbers on his team and get Scola re-signed before he can start worrying about what Miami is doing...

Marcus Bryant

07-10-2010, 12:32 PM

Morey's genius rests on the fact that he went to MIT, and Peter Holt didn't want to pay the luxury tax for Luis Scola, but rather, Richard Jefferson.

Cane

07-10-2010, 12:33 PM

LeBron's already taken scrubs to the Finals and had back to back 60+ wins. Wade's taken scrubs to the playoffs this past year even though they were in full Lebron sweepstakes mode. Both of those guys turned a bunch of scrubs into a force defensively. Bosh almost got the Raptors to the playoffs but someone broke his face towards the end of the season. Its an insult to the idea of basketball IQ that these guys would barely have a .500 season and they've already got experience playing together.

Plus Pat Riley is looking like the best suit that ever worked in the NBA since they're likely to sign Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem who are damn good roleplayers.

Jlowd21

07-10-2010, 12:33 PM

I'd rather have whoever they get at the minimum than Bonner for 4 mil

Mr.Bottomtooth

07-10-2010, 12:36 PM

I'd be very surprised if they don't win 60 at least.

Marcus Bryant

07-10-2010, 12:36 PM

Anyways, this is a good example of the limitations of SABRmetrics when applied to basketball.

Another is that Matt Bonner is worth fifteen million US dollars based on his "PER."

ElNono

07-10-2010, 12:36 PM

Morey's genius rests on the fact that he went to MIT, and Peter Holt didn't want to pay the luxury tax for Luis Scola, but rather, Richard Jefferson.

I thought Dennis Lindsey was in charge on the Rockets during the Scola debacle...

ElNono

07-10-2010, 12:38 PM

Anyways, this is a good example of the limitations of SABRmetrics when applied to basketball.

Another is that Matt Bonner is worth fifteen million US dollars based on his "PER."

You mean plus/minus. He's a very average player based on PER.

But I do get your point... :toast

FalleNxWiZarDx

07-10-2010, 12:39 PM

r u guys fucking kidding me???

they got 2 SUPERSTARS and 1 ALL STAR for fuck sakes

they going to dominate

Marcus Bryant

07-10-2010, 12:47 PM

You mean plus/minus. He's a very average player based on PER.

But I do get your point... :toast

He had a higher "PER" than Rashard Lewis and Udonis Haslem last season.

ElNono

07-10-2010, 01:05 PM

He had a higher "PER" than Rashard Lewis and Udonis Haslem last season.

Yeah, but the actual value was about 15.3 IIRC. On the PER scale, 15 is exactly the league average.

biba

07-10-2010, 01:06 PM

All analysts project 60+ wins. See below.

"All of that makes projecting a record for the Heat a little trickier than adding up the team's WARP totals from last season. Doing so, however, is a scary proposition. James and Wade combined for 45.4 Wins Above Replacement last season, while Bosh added 12.4 more and Anthony, Chalmers and Miller (whose pass-happy ways will be welcomed in Miami) combined for 6.0 WARP.

That's a total of 63.8, and adding the 10 wins we grant for replacement level suggests the Heat flirting with the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls for the best record of all time.

Again, I think that estimate is very optimistic. At the same time, Miami has the chance to potentially lure players who can contribute positive WARP despite having only replacement-level salaries to offer. 60-plus wins seems to be the statistical consensus for what the Heat might achieve.

John Hollinger estimated 61 wins, Paine's various estimates had a floor of 61 and Haralobos Voulgaris comes up with 64 wins.

That's despite the fact that all those projections filled out the roster with nothing but replacement players, not giving Miami the benefit of Chalmers or Miller."

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1180

ohmwrecker

07-10-2010, 01:07 PM

Are they going to play 4 on 5 all year? Then, yeah, they will probably win 45 games.

alchemist

07-10-2010, 01:07 PM

if they win less than 70 games I'd be shocked,

Lebron + Wade. jesus fucking christ :wow

Mel_13

07-10-2010, 01:10 PM

Morey has built a lottery team. He surely has a lot of knowledge about 45-wins teams.

:lmao

Sisk

07-10-2010, 01:11 PM

lol. I would bet the ranch that they win more than 45 games.

http://www.healthcastle.com/images/products/sal_hidden_valley_ranch.jpg

boutons_deux

07-10-2010, 01:18 PM

Winning 55-60 in the EC isn't real meaningful. 30 of 41 games against EC garbage is a huge boost in the W column.

tuncaboylu

07-10-2010, 01:31 PM

Miami win already 47 games last year. Now they're a 45 win team? So Morey means that adding Lebron and Bosh will make them slightly worse. Stupid comment.

Agloco

07-10-2010, 01:31 PM

There is another precedent and that is the Boston Celtics with the pairing of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Their roster was somewhat depleted too but produced a huge number of wins.

Due in large part to the fact that Rajon Rondo became far better than anyone would have imagined in their wildest dreams. Chalmers has this potential as well, but we will need to see. If they sign another grizzled vet like Perkins in the middle and get a solid wing defender to compliment LBJ (like T Allen), they could become the best team ever. I stress could.

Agloco

07-10-2010, 01:36 PM

More seriously, Miami still has some cap space and I guess they will get Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem with it. Add their huge 3 and Chalmers, and they still have 6 good players. It makes them as deep as Lakers.

The rest of the roster could be filled with some active bodies like Joel Anthony or Jarvis Varnado, some old vets like Raja Bell or Jason Williams and Miami end up with a damn good teams.

Their huge 3 taking pay cuts helps them a lot to build a great team.

C Bosh
PF Haslem
SF LBJ
SG Wade
PG Chalmers

6th Man - Miller

Bench: Joel Anthony and 5 cardboard cutouts.

Jesus............

There's only two things that sink this ship: Injuries and Chemistry. Its gonna be interesting to see if the basketball is big enough for the 3-Stooges.

Magdalena M

07-10-2010, 02:00 PM

Lebron won 66 games with Mo Williams as his best teammate. Anyone who thinks this team won't win 50 games is crrrraaaazy. I think a lot of people are obsessed with the idea of how much this team will score and forgetting what an insanely good defensive team it will be. The amount of steals that Chalmers, Wade, and LeBron are going to rack up is going to be amazing, and Joel Anthony and Haslem will think of nothing but defense. Wade was the #1 shot blocker among guards in the NBA last season, and LeBron and Bosh were both in the top 20 among forwards. In the Blocks per minute category, Joel Anthony was 3rd in the league, ahead of Dwight Howard. This is going to be a great defensive team.

djohn2oo8

07-10-2010, 02:30 PM

Miami win already 47 games last year. Now they're a 45 win team? So Morey means that adding Lebron and Bosh will make them slightly worse. Stupid comment.

LeBron is going to have to sacrifice his game, he is no longer a superstar. It's Wade's team still, and you can bet that they won't keep good team chemistry throughout the whole season

smrattler

07-10-2010, 02:35 PM

right now, on paper, i don't think they have what it takes to win more than 70 games... but it'll be close.

Right now on paper they don't have enough players to finish the season.

ChuckD

07-10-2010, 03:19 PM

I wouldn't bet against Morey though. If I were opposing teams, I would just pack the paint and dare the Heat to make outside shots. Also their second unit would absolutely suck.

This. Neither LeBucks or Wade is an outside shooter. This is where the comparisons to the Celtics fall apart. They had a legit floor spacer in Ray VaJayJay. Miami doesn't have a quality big, and they don't have a floor spacer.

tuncaboylu

07-10-2010, 03:38 PM

This. Neither LeBucks or Wade is an outside shooter. This is where the comparisons to the Celtics fall apart. They had a legit floor spacer in Ray VaJayJay. Miami doesn't have a quality big, and they don't have a floor spacer.

They're getting Mike Miller and he's a good three pointer. Mario Chalmers is also a good 3 pointer who can play like Lakers' Fisher.

Moreover if Miami doesn't have quality big, then what is Bosh? Plus they are about to sign with Haslem and they have solid 6 man rotation right now. They can get good veterans like Kurt Thomas, Earl Watson, Larry Hughes and Devean George. They're the team to beat in East at the moment.

024

07-10-2010, 04:15 PM

if lebron can win 60+ games with the cavs, take drew gooden to the finals, then he is used to carrying crappy teams. if wade could carry a core of beasley and jermaine o'neal to the playoffs, he can sure do it again with lebron and bosh.

HarlemHeat37

07-10-2010, 04:19 PM

As I said before..if they don't win the title, I'll never post on ST again..

HarlemHeat37

07-10-2010, 04:24 PM

The Lakers were 24th last year in 3-point shooting, and 11th out of 16 in the playoffs..teams dared them to shoot outside, and they didn't punish them..they still won the title, and they have inferior talent than this Miami team(assuming they get Miller too)..

They have the length advantage, but it doesn't change anything in regards to the spacing argument against Miami..

Mr Bones

07-10-2010, 04:25 PM

People keep saying that Miami only has 5 players, as if Pat Riley is really stupid and will somehow forget to sign more players before the season starts. Aging vets and marginal role players will be dying to join this team for the minimum, and a shot at a title.

MaNu4Tres

07-10-2010, 04:27 PM

Morey has built a lottery team. He surely has a lot of knowledge about 45-wins teams.

Was it dumb moves and dumb drafting?

Or was it injuries?

SenorSpur

07-10-2010, 04:37 PM

Morey has built a lottery team. He surely has a lot of knowledge about 45-wins teams.

:lol

Dro210

07-10-2010, 04:37 PM

lol 45 wins... I expect this team to average about 68 wins over the next 5 years, and that's allowing for minor injuries.... at least one of those teams is gonna get to 72 or more, probably 3 years from now when they've had time to build the team up more around these guys.

cd98

07-10-2010, 04:40 PM

InK

07-10-2010, 04:43 PM

If they sign Miller its really all over. Getting him would just put fastforward them 1 year, and he is really the last piece they need. A good shooter, and he is what, like 6.8 or 6.9.

cd98

07-10-2010, 04:46 PM

Morey has built a lottery team. He surely has a lot of knowledge about 45-wins teams.

In fairness, those were lottery teams mostly because of bad injuries to their stars. And who knows if Wade will be healthy (he's had health issues in the past).

I'd also say Morey has been a good drafter and certainly hit a home run with the Scola trade.

BadMotorscooter

07-10-2010, 04:47 PM

Heat will win 60+ games for the next 4 years.....at least til LeBrons player option to opt out comes up.

Mr Bones

07-10-2010, 05:10 PM

To start with, Miami is probably going to get Miller, a great shooter and very good rebounder that has very good size for a SG. They'll probably get Joel Anthony, a good back up big who averages more blocks per minute than Howard, Duncan, or Garnett. There's a decent chance they'll return Haslem, a defense first rebounder who thrives in the position of role player and glue guy. That's seven players right there. At that point, they could add Jonathan Bender, Oleksiy Pecherov, Travis Diener, and Ian Mahinmi and still be the best team in the NBA.

angelbelow

07-10-2010, 05:18 PM

A lot of bitter people.. how is that a 45 win team?

Agloco

07-10-2010, 09:27 PM

Not even close. That Celtic team also had Rondo, Perkins, and Posey.

Heat are unlikely to match that supporting cast.

If they sign Miller its really all over. Getting him would just put fastforward them 1 year, and he is really the last piece they need. A good shooter, and he is what, like 6.8 or 6.9.

The ink on Millers contract is already dry. They're also in the process of convincing Haslem to re-join the team. Joel Anthony is under contract as well.

Miller, Haslem, Anthony <roughly equal to> Rondo, Perkins, Posey

and

LBJ, Bosh, Wade >>>>>> Garnett, Allen, Pierce

spursbird

07-10-2010, 09:43 PM

If one of the Big 3 hurts, this team will suck badly.

PublicOption

07-10-2010, 11:30 PM

did you know that delonte west was boning LEFRAUDS mother.....hahahaahha

PublicOption

07-10-2010, 11:33 PM

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=n3lphc&s=3

mystargtr34

07-10-2010, 11:35 PM

LeBron is going to have to sacrifice his game, he is no longer a superstar. It's Wade's team still, and you can bet that they won't keep good team chemistry throughout the whole season

:lmao:lmao

I dont care where/who's team LeBron goes... he is the man on that team.

I wont even comment on the superstar part :lol.

PublicOption

07-10-2010, 11:39 PM

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=n3lphc&s=3

Indazone

07-11-2010, 12:00 AM

If they get Miller and Haslem, I would agree that the Heat will be difficult to beat but that starting 5 will have to play many minutes. I still think that you need a deep bench to get through the season and deep into the playoffs.

cd98

07-11-2010, 12:17 AM

The ink on Millers contract is already dry. They're also in the process of convincing Haslem to re-join the team. Joel Anthony is under contract as well.

Miller, Haslem, Anthony <roughly equal to> Rondo, Perkins, Posey

and

LBJ, Bosh, Wade >>>>>> Garnett, Allen, Pierce

???

Miller, Haslem, and Anthony? Rondo is way better than those 3. Posey was also better the year he played with the Celtics. And Perkins is way better than a declining Haslem and an inexperienced Anthony.

And Pierce played well against LeBron last year in the playoffs. How much better are the Heat big 3? I don't know if they are good enough to compensate for a weak supporting cast. And I don't know that Haslem will take a huge pay cut to play for the Heat.

I like Miller, but he's old.

tuncaboylu

07-11-2010, 02:56 AM

???

Miller, Haslem, and Anthony? Rondo is way better than those 3. Posey was also better the year he played with the Celtics. And Perkins is way better than a declining Haslem and an inexperienced Anthony.

And Pierce played well against LeBron last year in the playoffs. How much better are the Heat big 3? I don't know if they are good enough to compensate for a weak supporting cast. And I don't know that Haslem will take a huge pay cut to play for the Heat.

I like Miller, but he's old.

Is Miller old? He's 30? Rondo-Perkins-Posey was a good supporting cast 3 years ago, but Chalmers-Miller-Haslem is not too behind of them.

They're doing well at the moment, and I'm happy to see a team can avoid Boston's next 2 years plans.

Mr Bones

07-11-2010, 01:03 PM

Anyone who says that a guy with career averages of 27.8 ppg, 7 apg, and 7 rpg is not a superstar is.... damn, I can't even think of an appropriate word to describe it!

LeBron averaged 29.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 7.6 apg during the playoffs and he was playing injured for a significant part of it.

Here's some advice for Cleveland fans: If, in the future, you have a superstar playing for you and putting up historic numbers in the playoffs even though he sometimes can't use his shooting arm to shoot due to an elbow injury, don't boo him. It might make him feel like playing elsewhere.

Findog

07-11-2010, 01:10 PM

I don't see how those three douchebags + a roster filled out with D-Leaguers fails to win less than 55 games. Right now they have no size up front to deal with Dwight Howard, but they'll eventually fill out the rest of the roster. Maybe not in time for the 2010-11 season, but with the MLE and LLE next summer, they'll eventually get it right.

Agloco

07-11-2010, 11:11 PM

???

Miller, Haslem, and Anthony? Rondo is way better than those 3. Posey was also better the year he played with the Celtics. And Perkins is way better than a declining Haslem and an inexperienced Anthony.

And Pierce played well against LeBron last year in the playoffs. How much better are the Heat big 3? I don't know if they are good enough to compensate for a weak supporting cast. And I don't know that Haslem will take a huge pay cut to play for the Heat.

I like Miller, but he's old.

Now he is. My assessment involved the Rondo of 2008 an as yet, unproven quantity.......just as Chalmers is an as yet unproven quantity.

How much better? You think Pierce and Allen can hold a candle to LBJ and Wade? LOL........ Ill give you the slight advantage on Garnett vs Bosh.

Miller's old? Hes 30 isn't he? Regardless, he's a very good deadeye shooter, precisely the piece that they're missing. He fits well.