Tiago Splitter Preview - Part 2

[timvp]

Previously, I gave a scouting report on Tiago Splitter (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=158008). In this installment, I'll look at Splitter's potential production from a statistical point of view. If added to the roster, what kind of numbers can the Spurs expect?

I tackled the question a few different ways. First, I used Luis Scola as a model. Scola's transition from Europe to the NBA should be a very good guide. Not only did Scola come from the same Spanish team as Splitter, he also entered the NBA as a power forward next to a dominant center. Next, I used John Hollinger's European translation system (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=EuropeanProspects-090623). To round out the analysis, I gave my subjective statistical predictions.

In the chart below, there are five Splitter variations that each forecast his production per 40 minutes of playing time. Here's an explanation of each superscript:

1) These numbers were derived by comparing Splitter's last three seasons in the Spanish basketball league to Scola's last three seasons in the same league and then using Scola's rookie season with the Rockets as the model.

2) Same as above except I used three years of Euroleague when comparing instead of the Spanish league.

3) I took Splitter's pace-adjusted per-minute 2010 Euroleague stats and then applied Hollinger's European translation system. (His system only projects a limited number of stats.)

4) Instead of simply using Splitter's last season of Euroleague action, I used a larger sample size by combining his last three seasons.

5) My subjective predictions.

For comparison's sake, I included Scola's rookie season stats and numbers for notable Spurs bigmen of the Tim Duncan Era. Last season's stats were used for Duncan, McDyess, Blair and Bonner. I used 1999 stats for Robinson, 2003 for Rose, 2004 for Horry and Nesterovic, 2006 for Mohammed, 2007 for Oberto and 2009 for Thomas.

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/6817/splitterchart.jpg

Points Per 40 Minutes
Each formula resulted in a relatively similar number. My prediction was closer to the lower end since I don't think Splitter will have many plays run for him. I envision him getting most of his points off of hustle plays, good ball movement and sporadic pick-and-roll sets.

Field Goal Percentage
The percentages here vary greatly -- from 41.5% to 55.7%. I predicted he'd hit slightly less than half of his attempts. I expect the vast majority of his shots to be from the painted area, however I do think he'll need to tweak his offensive repertoire. In Europe, he oftentimes went with finesse over power. Eventually Splitter should shoot 52-54% from the field but there will be an adjustment period in his rookie season.

Rebounds Per 40 Minutes
The predictions in this category are all very close. I went with the bottom of the range due to the fact that he'll spend a lot of time playing next to Duncan and Blair -- two of the best rebounders on the planet. If Splitter adds beef down the line, he should eventually be able to reach double-digits.

Assists Per 40 Minutes
This is where the numbers varied the most. Hollinger's system predicts Splitter to be an elite passer for a bigman. Though I do think that he is a very good passer, it's difficult to rack up assists in the Spurs system. For example, Blair showed quality passing ability last season and yet his assists numbers were below average. With that in mind, my prediction for Splitter was conservative.

Steals Per 40 Minutes
Popovich usually frowns upon bigmen who play the passing lanes too often. Especially in his rookie season, Splitter will likely concentrate on defending the post rather than reaching for steals. Eventually, Splitter's length and quick feet could allow him to challenge Robinson's supremacy in this category.

Blocks Per 40 Minutes
In my opinion, this is the most interesting set of stats. The formulas have Splitter becoming a poor shot blocker in the NBA. Since shot blocking is supposedly one of Splitter's main strengths according to just about every basketball scout, coach and analyst, the fact that his numbers are below those of Bonner and Oberto is shocking. I simply can't imagine Splitter averaging less than one block per 40 minutes. He's too long, too quick and too engaged to not become at least an average shot blocker. It will also help that fouls won't be as much of a worry on the NBA level. In Europe, his team was toast if he got in foul trouble; he can be more aggressive with the Spurs.

Turnovers Per 40 Minutes
I expect Splitter to have some issues with turnovers early on in his rookie season. Splitter is a sub par ball-handler (even for a bigman) and he's accustomed to setting screens that aren't legal in the NBA. Also, he'll need to speed up his moves on the low block. NBA players are too quick for him to continuously pound the ball like he does in Europe. That said, with enough minutes, he should figure it out by around the All-Star break.

Fouls Per 40 Minutes
Splitter's aggressiveness is key to his success in San Antonio. For that reason, a greater rate of fouls would actually be an encouraging sign. If he's not going for blocks and crashing the boards, he wouldn't be doing his job. Thus, I expect a relatively large number of fouls.

Player Efficiency Rating
The league average PER is 15, while a PER of 20 translates to All-Star level play. For Splitter, any number above 15 in his rookie season would be a success. (Last season, the only Spurs with a above average PER were Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Blair and Mahinmi.) A PER of 16.1, as I predicted, would surely place him in the top ten of rookies for the 2010-11 season.

Conclusion
I expect Splitter to be an above average NBA player from right off the boat, however I think it'd be foolish to expect big numbers during his rookie season. If he's playing well, I see Popovich giving him approximately 25 minutes per night, which would give Splitter the following averages: 9.7 points, 6 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.6 blocks.


The third installment of the Splitter preview will include interview transcripts with scouts who have paid close attention to Splitter over the years.

[Libri]

Cool :toast

[Cane]

Good read.

[spursbird]

Thanks Timvp. How is his defense compared to Varejao?

[Libri]

Anybody know how many shots he has averaged per game?

[murpjf88]

He doesn't block a lot of shots. Teams are still going to have the run of the paint.

[Sigz]

I hear this guy flops more than blocks shots.

[ElNono]

Thanks for taking the time to put that together

[angelbelow]

thanks for the work.

[picnroll]

Nice write up.

I'm not expecting a lot of blocked shots either. I haven't seen a lot of him but What I've seen he tends to defend the paint with his arms up like Rasho. In fact his defense reminds of a quicker Rasho but remains to be seen if hevpositions himself as well. I don't think he has much in the way of leaps.

[50 cent]

Nice work. What that chart really tells me is that Blair needs to be getting a hell of a lot more minutes.

[Phenomanul]

Thanks for the statistical analysis... I guess given the predicted numbers he won't sniff the ROY race...

[Obstructed_View]

Nice write up.

I'm not expecting a lot of blocked shots either. I haven't seen a lot of him but What I've seen he tends to defend the paint with his arms up like Rasho. In fact his defense reminds of a quicker Rasho but remains to be seen if hevpositions himself as well. I don't think he has much in the way of leaps.

If he can defend the paint half as well as Rasho I'll be more than pleased.

[Manu-of-steel]

Thanks timvp.

[Seventyniner]

Nice write up.

I'm not expecting a lot of blocked shots either. I haven't seen a lot of him but What I've seen he tends to defend the paint with his arms up like Rasho. In fact his defense reminds of a quicker Rasho but remains to be seen if hevpositions himself as well. I don't think he has much in the way of leaps.

Didn't Rasho average close to 2 BPG as a starter with the Spurs?

[picnroll]

If he can defend the paint half as well as Rasho I'll be more than pleased.
I'll be pleased too. I think that's going to be the strength of his game and something badly needed. He probably won't be able to body up the stronger bigs as well though I don't think.

[Spurs Brazil]

great read timvp


I see Popovich giving him approximately 25 minutes per night, which would give Splitter the following averages: 9.7 points, 6 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.6 blocks.

That would be good

[mookie2001]

i guess the points are good but dont lie to yourselves

6 rebounds and 1.4 assists and .6 blocks is not good

[EricB]

I'll take 10 and 6 his rookie year. Here's hoping he doesn't get hurt in turkey..

[EricB]

i guess the points are good but dont lie to yourselves

6 rebounds and 1.4 assists and .6 blocks is not good


:lmao yeah for the 28h pick in the draft that's just horrid.

[mookie2001]

no tpark its not horrid, but please dont sit here and tell me 6 boards, 1 asst and less than a block is good for a bigman

nobody can argue that

[AFBlue]

:tu

Awesome read man. And I'm glad you included some Hollinger Euro conversion. He may be WAY too much into his statistical analysis, but his Euro to NBA conversion is usually pretty accurate.

[Spursmania]

Very nice timvp:tu

[Juanobili]

You could charge me monthly and I'd still pay to visit this board

thanks for the previews timvp!

[bigdog]

Good read, as always, LJ. I'm not one that's obsessed with Hollinger-like statistical stuff, but still good, nonetheless.

[urunobili]

great analysis :tu the main reason why I became so addicted to this site is timvp's takes :tu

[ElNono]

To appear on the monday edition...


What can the Spurs expect from Splitter?

With our sources reporting that Splitter has cut off short his honeymoon and has just arrived in San Antonio, we asked our internal statistical analysts to predict what should the Spurs expect from a player like Splitter, and this is what they came up with:

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/6817/splitterchart.jpg


:hat

Edit: Oops, sorry, I forgot we're not supposed to post E-N stuff... :lol

[EduRiker]

Excelent post. The only thing I would disagree is that he's known to be a shot-blocker. He's not. He doesnt gamble for blocks, period. However, that doesnt mean he's not an agressive defender. Like I said before, Tiago settles for altering shots.

Besides, don't fool yourselves. Tiago is not a boxscore maniac. Most of his impact doesnt show on stats.

This prediction is pretty acurated for his rookie year.

[Kindergarten Cop]

Didn't Rasho average close to 2 BPG as a starter with the Spurs?

He averaged right at 2 his first season with San Antonio, but seemed to drop off in each of the following two seasons (1.7 and 1.1).

[TJastal]

25 mins / gm is probably more than he's likely to get.

There's basically 96 minutes to divide amongst Duncan, Dice, Bonner, Blair and Splitter.

Duncan is going to get 30, Dice 20, Bonner & Blair 15 apiece. That essentially leaves Splitter with 16 minutes and that's IF Popped doesn't play any small ball which is unlikely.

Unless the spurs make some kind of trade involving either Dice, Bonner, or Blair...Splitter will be lucky to garner even 15 minutes per game.

[Obstructed_View]

no tpark its not horrid, but please dont sit here and tell me 6 boards, 1 asst and less than a block is good for a bigman

nobody can argue that

Take it up with the coach. If he puts up those kinds of numbers in the projected minutes then he's in pretty rarified air for a Spurs big.

[ElNono]

25 mins / gm is probably more than he's likely to get.

There's basically 96 minutes to divide amongst Duncan, Dice, Bonner, Blair and Splitter.

Duncan is going to get 30, Dice 20, Bonner & Blair 15 apiece. That essentially leaves Splitter with 16 minutes and that's IF Popped doesn't play any small ball which is unlikely.

Unless the spurs make some kind of trade involving either Dice, Bonner, or Blair...Splitter will be lucky to garner even 15 minutes per game.

I think it would be asinine to have TD play more than 20-23 mpg over the regular season, seeing how he wore out during the past two seasons. I mean, there might be some special games or circumstances that force your hand, but with the West dropping a bit in quality, there's no reason you couldn't pull it off.

I also expect Dice to play no more than 15 and to sit out some back to back games.

[Trill Clinton]

Interesting...dope post:toast

[mookie2001]

I think it would be asinine to have TD play more than 20-23 mpg over the regular season
are you shitting me


that post may have been a new low in spursforum foolishness


that is just dumb man

[slick'81]

9/6 sounds about right, 1st year so cant expect to much 25MIN PER wouldnt be a bad start either

[benefactor]

Nice analysis. 10 and 6 would work for me.

[ajh18]

i guess the points are good but dont lie to yourselves

6 rebounds and 1.4 assists and .6 blocks is not good


This is in 25 minutes. As a rookie. On the Spurs. And to determine what "good" is, you HAVE to take into account minutes played.

What I took away from the analysis is that Splitter projects to be right around where Scola was his rookie year, and would be the most productive big we've had next to Duncan since Malik in 2003 or Robinson in 1999. Want to know if 15.5 points, 9.6 rebs, 2.2 assists, 1 stl and 1 blk per 40 minutes is good? Here are some (rough) numbers for comparison of players with similar stats over 40 minutes.

Name: Points/Rebs/Assts/Block (per 40)

Tiago Splitter: 15.5/9.6/2.2/1.0
Brad Miller: 13.6/7.7/3.1/0.6
David Anderson: 16/9.1/2.1/0.6
Nene Hilario: 16.3/9.2/2.7/1.2
Andray Blatche: 16/9.2/2.1/1.25
Paul Milsap: 16.7/9.2/2/1.7
Zydrunas Ilgauskus: 14.9/10.2/1.5
JJ Hickson: 14.9/9.2/0.7/0.9
Spencer Hawes: 16.1/8.9/3.1/1.7

Frankly, those are all second-tier NBA centers and forwards. And that's absolutely fine with me for a rookie coming into our system, especially one that actually plays in the POST (unlike Bonner, who also has similar stats but plays like a shooting guard) and has some mobility. In fact, I'd even go so far as to say it qualifies as "good."

[ElNono]

are you shitting me

that post may have been a new low in spursforum foolishness

that is just dumb man

What part exactly you disagree with and why?

[manu the best]

.. great work ..

[mookie2001]

yes players play x min per game, every game and total stats, then divide that by games played. i understand that


6 rebounds 1 asst and half a block is not good. i dont know what to tell you i know these are just projections bu

[TJastal]

I think it would be asinine to have TD play more than 20-23 mpg over the regular season, seeing how he wore out during the past two seasons. I mean, there might be some special games or circumstances that force your hand, but with the West dropping a bit in quality, there's no reason you couldn't pull it off.

I also expect Dice to play no more than 15 and to sit out some back to back games.

Do you also plan on making the playoffs?

[mookie2001]

What part exactly you disagree with and why?


20 minutes per game?

hes been playing in the mid 30s for 5 years and youre going to cut that by 15 min per game?

what is the point of having him on the roster and playing the regular season? i doubt tim would stand for that shit thats an insult of the highest caliber










i personally think pop didnt play him enough last season, but that is a tough argument because he is getting old and was gassed in the playoffs

but it couldnt have ended any worse, we got our asses swept by PHOENIX

[ElNono]

Do you also plan on making the playoffs?

If TD is not gonna get help from the supporting cast and have to carry the load again in the 1st half like the past two seasons only to be burned at the end, what's the point of making the playoffs?

Also, like I said, the west is not looking as competitive as the last few seasons this time around.

[ElNono]

20 minutes per game?

hes been playing in the mid 30s for 5 years and youre going to cut that by 15 min per game?

what is the point of having him on the roster and playing the regular season? i doubt tim would stand for that shit thats an insult of the highest caliber

i personally think pop didnt play him enough last season, but that is a tough argument because he is getting old and was gassed in the playoffs

but it couldnt have ended any worse, we got our asses swept by PHOENIX

He averaged 31 mpg last season and he indeed ended up gassed. The previous season he ended up gassed too.
I said to reduce his minutes to 20-23 with some games maybe more depending on the circumstance. That's a 5-10 minute reduction to see if we can keep his legs fresh. People tend to forget that Tim has a chronic condition on one of his knees. More than ever it's important not to lose focus on the goal and that the surrounding cast step up their games because TD is going to need all the help he can get to capture #5.

[mookie2001]

the 31 min per game was to keep his legs fresh, and it didnt work, we lost a shitload of games, got a bad seed, he wasnt in condition to play more mins in the playoffs and i think team chemistry suffered. he was still gassed and we got SWEPT by PHOENIX. thats a nightmare. thats beyond pain and agony i cant tell you what that series did to me

i guess if you had 20 bones left at the casino you would go play quarter slots for 2 hours?

go for the gusto man, would you rather have tim retire after the 11 championship or have him play 13 min a game for 10 more years?

[Obstructed_View]

the 31 min per game was to keep his legs fresh, and it didnt work, we lost a shitload of games, got a bad seed, he wasnt in condition to play more mins in the playoffs and i think team chemistry suffered. he was still gassed and we got SWEPT by PHOENIX. thats a nightmare. thats beyond pain and agony i cant tell you what that series did to me

i guess if you had 20 bones left at the casino you would go play quarter slots for 2 hours?

go for the gusto man, would you rather have tim retire after the 11 championship or have him play 13 min a game for 10 more years?

Losing a shitload of games and having a bad seed was as much to do with inept coaching and failure to develop young players as anything else. Honestly, bringing Duncan off the bench? WTF? With the expected development of Blair if Splitter can put up numbers like that he basically forces Pop to give him more minutes. There's really not any way that can be a bad situation for the Spurs.

[Russ]

Rasho got 28.7 minutes/game his first year with the Spurs.

No way Splitter gets less than that -- likely more.

No big not named Duncan should get anywhere close to Splitter's playing time.

[ElNono]

the 31 min per game was to keep his legs fresh, and it didnt work, we lost a shitload of games, got a bad seed, he wasnt in condition to play more mins in the playoffs and i think team chemistry suffered. he was still gassed and we got SWEPT by PHOENIX. thats a nightmare. thats beyond pain and agony i cant tell you what that series did to me

i guess if you had 20 bones left at the casino you would go play quarter slots for 2 hours?

go for the gusto man, would you rather have tim retire after the 11 championship or have him play 13 min a game for 10 more years?

I personally think this is the last lap we have with this specific core. I don't know what's gonna happen with Tony after this season, and wether Tim will be able to sporadically dominate. What I do know is that if Tim is just as gassed as the last two seasons when the playoffs roll around, our chances for #5 will be slim to none. I certainly hope that guys like Tiago can actually bring help to Tim in the rebounding and paint defense department so he can be more rested by the time the playoffs come around.

[SpursNextRomanEmpire]

Thanks again timvp

[TDMVPDPOY]

10/6? thats a bit low man

if his gettin starters minutes? i expect around yao/amare rookie year type of stats...

[Obstructed_View]

10/6? thats a bit low man

if his gettin starters minutes? i expect around yao/amare rookie year type of stats...

Rookie year, Amare: 14 and 9.

Rookie year, Yao: 14 and 8.

[analyzed]

His biggest asset defensively will be his ability to guard the pick and roll , he has excellent defensive foot work, and always seems to be in the right spot on time. yeah he wont block many shots , but if the series against the Suns is any indication he will really be of great help defensivly covering the pick and roll

[rmt]

20 minutes per game?

hes been playing in the mid 30s for 5 years and youre going to cut that by 15 min per game?

what is the point of having him on the roster and playing the regular season? i doubt tim would stand for that shit thats an insult of the highest caliber

i personally think pop didnt play him enough last season, but that is a tough argument because he is getting old and was gassed in the playoffs

but it couldnt have ended any worse, we got our asses swept by PHOENIX

If the Spurs could get by with not playing Duncan and Dice until the ASB, I'd be all for that. Since they can't do that, I'd like to see them play him 25 mins/game (10 mins for Dice), no back to back, and take off a game when they do 5 games in 7 nights.

Duncan played really well in the first half of the season until he wore down. He also played well the first 3 games of the playoffs (after 5 days rest) and lots of days off between games. When the games were every other day, he played poorly.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Losing a shitload of games and having a bad seed was as much to do with inept coaching and failure to develop young players as anything else. Honestly, bringing Duncan off the bench? WTF? With the expected development of Blair if Splitter can put up numbers like that he basically forces Pop to give him more minutes. There's really not any way that can be a bad situation for the Spurs.

What??? Dude Mookie is saying that we should play Duncan as much as possible because he is an amazing once-in-a-lifetime player. Why save his legs for five more years for us to suck ass when we can play him all we need and try to get that elusive fifth ring for this next year.....that's his reasoning.

Noone ever mentioned Duncan coming off the bench.

[ElNono]

O_V was making reference to Pop bringing TD off the bench last season against Toronto (IIRC)

Not only he had to end up playing TD, he ended up playing more minutes than usual and we also lost the game.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

In either case it is obvious Duncan is a Manu when it comes to playoff legs. So do we save those legs and get a shitty seed or do we use those legs and get a better seed?


This was one of the biggest problems last season and every time Pop tried to play it right, it backfired and we lost anyway and lost ground. I'd like to see a real spurs depth the way spurs championship ball used to work.....

[barbacoataco]

Thanks Timvp for the analysis. I think the other factor is how will Splitter do defensively against Aldridge, Gasol, Bynum, Nowitski etc.

[mookie2001]

let the man play

We aint tryin to hop in and on hop out right quick are we?

we're out for the GUSTO

[ElNono]

Well, undeniably both the performance of the surrounding cast and how the rest of the west shapes up is going to have a big impact on how the minutes are going to be distributed for our older players. I just don't see the coaching staff actively burning our core guys to 'win' the #1 or #2 seed.

[ElNono]

let the man play
We aint tryin to hop in and on hop out right quick are we?
we're out for the GUSTO

You're certainly entitled to watch the Spurs for whatever floats your boat. There's no rights or wrongs there.

[TJastal]

I'm with Mookie on this one, with a catch. I absolutely think minutes are not so much important as getting the right players to help Tim Duncan defend the paint and finally getting a cohesive group/rotation which has eluded the spurs the past 3 years. It won't matter if Tim Duncan plays 30 minutes a game if he has people helping him defend the paint so he is not stuck doing it alone for major stretches of the game. Which basically means Matt Bonner should really not be getting minutes, period.

The big rotation would have been perfect if not for Bonner getting resigned at such a high price, which basically gaurantees him getting 15-20 minutes a game. He should have been a guy who was resigned at most maybe 2m a year if not vet minimum to take some minutes early in the year but be firmly planted on the bench by March.

If he really is as good as advertised, Splitter could have quickly garnered a starting role alongside TD, effectively moving McDyess to the 2nd unit where I think he best fits with Blair. From what I saw last year, McDyess and Blair were a very good combination offensively and defensively. The TD-Splitter & McDyess-Blair combos would have been perfect.

But now by having Bonner rotating in and out with his 15-20 minutes and watering everyone else's minutes down there will be little cohesion and continuity amongst the bigs... much like what unnecessarily adding Bogans did last year to the guard rotation. Splitter's minutes will be watered down to the point where it will take all year for him to even learn the system. Won't be long before he becomes frustrated and upset. McDyess will have to play as starter for most of the year because of this and won't be happy in this role. Blair's minutes will be cut to make room for Bonner and he isn't going to be effective with so few minutes and unhappy. All because fucking Pop is stuck on this idea he absolutely needs a 3point shooting big in the rotation.

[Kamnik]

great analysis :tu the main reason why I became so addicted to this site is timvp's takes :tu

I think it goes for many of us...

My daily overview of the forum starts by searching for timvp's posts and lately of one another poster. Sometimes I also check out Kori's or Bruno's posts (depending on what is happening in the Spurs world).

[lefty]

Thanks Timvp. How is his defense compared to Varejao?
Varejao and defense in the same sentence = flop

[angelbelow]

Well at this point.. only the trolls are arguing that the Bonner signing was a great one... hopefully Splitter get enough minutes to learn and develop.

IMO theres no reason to play guys with no upside/incapable on contributing consistently because even if they play well were not a championship team. Some arguments out there that keeping Bonner is a good idea because he knows the system... so what? is that supposed to make our team better? With Splitter and Blair's upside - if they can really develop we may be good enough in the future. I just hope that Splitter and Blair get a lot of playing time next year..

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Great analysis, timvp. Thanks. :tu

[will_spurs]

Thanks for the analysis, gives us a great basis for discussion. Between Preview #1 and #2 I see a HUGE red flag: fouls.

In Preview #1 you explained he is used to do what the NBA would call moving screens. He's been used to that for years and I don't how fast one can "unlearn" that, but I'd bet not overnight.

In Preview #2 you show us that he is consistently projected above 4.5 fouls per 40 minutes. He seems to be an aggressive defender around the basket.

I'm sure Pop is coming in with the best intentions re: a guy who is getting paid around $5 million and has a proven history overseas, so my comparison doesn't fully apply, but think of the last big man prospect we had and what happened to him because he racked up a few fouls, especially on moving screens. Now think about the next big guy prospect we had who also got his minutes limited because of fouling and aggressivity (one might call that passion) in his rookie year.

In short:

Pop + big man prospect likely to be a foul machine at first = FAIL

If Splitter fouls as much as your reports indicate, his PT will be ~10 minutes by December.

[TJastal]

Thanks for the analysis, gives us a great basis for discussion. Between Preview #1 and #2 I see a HUGE red flag: fouls.

In Preview #1 you explained he is used to do what the NBA would call moving screens. He's been used to that for years and I don't how fast one can "unlearn" that, but I'd bet not overnight.

In Preview #2 you show us that he is consistently projected above 4.5 fouls per 40 minutes. He seems to be an aggressive defender around the basket.

I'm sure Pop is coming in with the best intentions re: a guy who is getting paid around $5 million and has a proven history overseas, so my comparison doesn't fully apply, but think of the last big man prospect we had and what happened to him because he racked up a few fouls, especially on moving screens. Now think about the next big guy prospect we had who also got his minutes limited because of fouling and aggressivity (one might call that passion) in his rookie year.

In short:

Pop + big man prospect likely to be a foul machine at first = FAIL

If Splitter fouls as much as your reports indicate, his PT will be ~10 minutes by December.

Very likely. I can already see a typical game for Tiago: Two quick fouls, and POop pulls him out (cuz we all know how much POop hates when players commit fouls)

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

BTW, on the moving screen thing - does the NBA really call that many moving screens? I see veteran players getting away with moving screens all the time. I think it's something rookies get called for a lot, but otherwise I think the NBA is pretty lax on moving screens, especially on the perimeter.

[DrSteffo]

Thank you timvp, great analysis as always.

I don't expect Splitter to be a stat guy and that's ok. 10/7 with some good d and passing and intangibles would be fine. I don't think he will be a great shot blocker or rebounder. He could score more but that's more about plays run for him or not. I hope to see better than Rasho numbers and a team player having fun and making plays.

[DrSteffo]

BTW, on the moving screen thing - does the NBA really call that many moving screens? I see veteran players getting away with moving screens all the time. I think it's something rookies get called for a lot, but otherwise I think the NBA is pretty lax on moving screens, especially on the perimeter.

Maybe but his moving screens in europe was so obvious they would get called. He is smart and should adjust so should not be a dig problem.

[timvp]

Thanks Timvp. How is his defense compared to Varejao?

Varejao's is a much better defender at the moment. To catch up, Splitter needs to increase his hustle and energy -- especially when he is away from the ball. Splitter has better length but Varejao is much more technically sound.

But then again, being a worse defender than Varejao isn't uncommon. I'd rank Varejao as a top five defensive bigman.

[TJastal]

Varejao's is a much better defender at the moment. To catch up, Splitter needs to increase his hustle and energy -- especially when he is away from the ball. Splitter has better length but Varejao is much more technically sound.

But then again, being a worse defender than Varejao isn't uncommon. I'd rank Varejao as a top five defensive bigman.

I'd have to agree. No way will Splitter be as good as Varejao.. at least initially. I'd even be surprised if Splitter's offensive game was on par with AV's.

[DrSteffo]

It's funny cause Varejao was never that good in Europe. I did not expect him to have a good nba career. He was mostly running around like crazy, not touching the ball and looking lost.

[DrSteffo]

Splitter > Varejao in my honest opinion after seing them play for several years.

[Obstructed_View]

In either case it is obvious Duncan is a Manu when it comes to playoff legs. So do we save those legs and get a shitty seed or do we use those legs and get a better seed?


This was one of the biggest problems last season and every time Pop tried to play it right, it backfired and we lost anyway and lost ground. I'd like to see a real spurs depth the way spurs championship ball used to work.....

Duncan needs to be able to play ~40 MPG in order for the Spurs to win. Therefore, if Duncan isn't relatively fresh and injury-free by the playoffs, the Spurs have no chance.

If the Spurs don't develop their young players to contribute during the regular season, Duncan can't be fresh by the playoffs because he has to work too hard to carry the team against the Clippers and the Pacers and the Spurs still end up with a low seed. Again, it wasn't resting Duncan that caused the Spurs to struggle in the regular season, it was having Bonner defend all-stars in the post, putting RJ in as a center and starting Keith Bogans for half the season.

[timvp]

Nice work. What that chart really tells me is that Blair needs to be getting a hell of a lot more minutes.

Yeah, his numbers really stand out ... especially compared to other past failures. In all the Splitter hype, it's easy to forget that the Spurs already have a pretty darn good young PF on the roster. In fact, there's no way that Splitter has the type of per-minute production Blair had in his rookie season.

[timvp]

Bump.


http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/9708/splitterchartupdate.jpg

A little late but here's an updated chart with the highlighted row being Splitter's actual production as a rookie. My estimates of his rookie production -- subscript #5 -- were decently close. (:hat @ .1 off on PER.) The Scola translated stats also got close to nailing a few categories.

Splitter ended up rebounding and getting steals better than expected, while turning the ball over less than expected.

It's interesting that Splitter's rookie season was pretty darn similar to Scola's rookie season based on a per-minute basis. Scola improved greatly in the subsequent seasons, so it'd obviously be nice if Splitter could follow the same type of career curve.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

So what are the other subscripts

[timvp]

So what are the other subscripts

It's explained in the OP.

And I should have said superscript, tbh.

[Phenomanul]

What I've noticed (and it's not as measurable with such metrics) is that our interior defense is much better when Splitter is in the game with another defensive big (mostly Duncan). His screen setting also allows the guards to get into their sets more efficiently... helping the flow of the offense. I guess what I'm getting at is that Spltter's contributions to the team cannot be fully measured (as is likely the case of others on your OP list).

As for comparisons with Luis Scola, however, Scola isn't quite the turnstile on defense that some here paint him to be... but Splitter does have Scola more than beat on the defensive end. I don't know if Splitter will be able to develop a solid jumper or the vast array of McHale-like moves that Scola pulls under the basket - so offensively speaking Scola-type production might be out of reach for Splitter (in his career path). Nevertheless, what Splitter can provide defensively is worth more to the Spurs' *Title hopes than what Scola could ever hope to provide with his offensive production...

edit: That said, I'd take Scola over Bonner in a heartbeat...

[acoelho1]

I can see Splitter developing into a 15 and 9 player given the minutes. I also think the defense is better when he is in the game. He is a very smart player and understands where he needs to be on the court.