Earl [Archive] - SpursTalk.com Forums

Cry Havoc

08-30-2010, 11:23 AM

Time to start watching this storm. Its still a long way out but the models keep brining it further south and it might be a player for the east coast.

Yeah. The tracks keep shifting this thing further West, and now even the NHC says they have no real idea where it's going due to the trough that's interacting with it now.

I'll let someone else take the "why would i care about the east coast" post.

So we'll keep SpursTalk regulated to things that only affect Texas from here on out. Got it.

You do realize that the economy of the EC is closely tied with the Gulf, right? Wait... probably not. :lol

All I know is if it does hit the east coast it's all we'll here about on the morning shows....for days...maybe weeks or months. Even if they just get some rain.

Damn them for making you turn on their news programs to watch hurricane coverage! :lol

Trainwreck may post from the Virgin islands.

:lmao

MannyIsGod

08-30-2010, 11:37 AM

Trainwreck may post from the Virgin islands.

:lmao

IronMexican

08-30-2010, 11:58 AM

Props to Joe for the funny.

ashbeeigh

08-30-2010, 12:04 PM

So we'll keep SpursTalk regulated to things that only affect Texas from here on out. Got it.

You do realize that the economy of the EC is closely tied with the Gulf, right? Wait... probably not. :lol

Damn them for making you turn on their news programs to watch hurricane coverage! :lol

Yes. The forum should be regulated to "ashbeeigh specific" news. Obviously. :lol

benefactor

08-30-2010, 12:21 PM

Even though the seas are warm and Earl could potentially see Cat 5 status, I don't think there is going to much to worry about with this storm beyond high waves and strong rip currents. All the current computer models agree that the trough of low pressure that is expected to come off of the east coast should keep Earl a couple hundred miles away from the shore and eventually steer it back out to sea or up into Nova Scotia. By that time it should weaken significantly.

marini martini

08-30-2010, 12:37 PM

Trainwreck may post from the Virgin islands.

:lmao

Even though I don't know her.

MannyIsGod

08-30-2010, 12:46 PM

benefactor

08-30-2010, 01:00 PM

"A couple of hundred miles" in a 3 day+ forecast is easily within the margin of error. Don't expect Earl to follow that track perfectly.
I don't...but I don't expect it make landfall in NC either with the current conditions. At the most they will get some pretty good storms out of it but I don't think it will get close enough to do major damage. We'll see how that trough develops.

Shelly

08-30-2010, 01:21 PM

I've got nothing to say about Earl, but benefactor, every time I see your avatar, I crack up!

benefactor

08-30-2010, 01:27 PM

I've got nothing to say about Earl, but benefactor, every time I see your avatar, I crack up!
:toast

Cry Havoc

08-30-2010, 02:19 PM

Manny, you were right, Earl is absolutely bombing out:

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-16278-1283192946.gif

He just waited until today to do it. That's some explosive deepening there, if I've ever seen it.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-15491-1283193023.gif

Right off the DC coast. If these models keep trending any farther West I'm going to the store tomorrow to stock up on emergencies. For anyone who has never been to DC, you want NOTHING to do with the beltway or any major road on a regular workday, let alone an emergency.

Dvorak classification already listing Earl at 942 mb. Insanity.

IronMexican

08-30-2010, 02:20 PM

[quote]/img]

Cry Havoc

08-30-2010, 02:23 PM

[ quote]/img]

:lmao

Yeah. Working and posting at the same time leads to that kind of thing.

MannyIsGod

08-30-2010, 03:40 PM

Yeah I thought he'd start it 12 hours sooner but it was just a bit later. At least it missed PR and just skirted the virgin islands.

Cry Havoc

08-30-2010, 03:55 PM

Earl is now Category 4 according to the Dvorak scale.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

MannyIsGod

08-30-2010, 04:18 PM

Presentation on it is pretty much perfect. Outflow is good in every direction, no dry air, and there is virtually on shear.

NASA was supposed to be doing a study this summer with a global hawk drone they have for science purposes. I hope they're getting some good information from this storm.

MannyIsGod

08-30-2010, 04:18 PM

BTW looks like the cone shifted west yet again a bit. Looks like they're forecasting a much closer run with both the outer banks and cape cod.

sabar

08-30-2010, 04:21 PM

And tropical storm Fiona is born.

NOAA's seasonal prediction was looking pretty overstated, but now the storms are rolling out.

MannyIsGod

08-30-2010, 04:32 PM

And tropical storm Fiona is born.

NOAA's seasonal prediction was looking pretty overstated, but now the storms are rolling out.

Nah, now that the ridge over Russia is gone you have a much more normal pattern over the Atlantic. Combine that with record SSTs and La Nina in the Pacific and you've got a train of storms in the making. We'll probably have the next one within a week too if the GFS is right.

Cry Havoc

08-30-2010, 04:42 PM

Earl's windfield is expanding, and this is before he undergoes an ERC. He could very well bomb out to a full Cat 5 by tonight, and many models are supporting this, some forecasting as high as 165 mph+ sustained winds. One model even said 175, I think.

The Weather Channel in their infinite wisdom just stated that it could be a potentially historic event if Earl impacts the Eastern coast West of forecast models.

Drachen

08-30-2010, 04:59 PM

I have a friend flying to DC from Holland the day after tomorrow. What timing.

ashbeeigh

08-30-2010, 05:22 PM

The Weather Channel in their infinite wisdom just stated that it could be a potentially historic event if Earl impacts the Eastern coast West of forecast models.

And my morning show nightmare...Earl from 7am to 9am...for the foreseable future.

Now, don't get me wrong..I'm a weather geek throug and through and am nervous/scared/anxious to see where it ends up and am also concerned about all the residents in the path...

Anyway. I sure sound like a sour bitch some days don't I? Sorry.

MannyIsGod

08-30-2010, 05:29 PM

941 mb

benefactor

08-30-2010, 06:41 PM

Wow...I knew it would intensify with near 30 C waters and very little shear(4 knots :wow) but man, this thing became pretty monstrous very quickly. The 6PM advisory has the pressure at 939.

It's going to be interesting to see just how strong Earl gets over the next couple of days, but judgment day is definitely Friday when the low pressure trough is scheduled to move off the EC. Hopefully the timing lines up...but if I'm in SC on Thursday and it's tracking pretty close I'm getting out of dodge.

DPG21920

08-30-2010, 07:34 PM

Please don't hit anywhere.

easjer

08-30-2010, 09:03 PM

This thread is almost vintage.

I'm watching with interest. Fiona as well.

MannyIsGod

08-30-2010, 09:06 PM

Man, our storm names suck.

There is a typhoon out in the west Pacific with the name Lionrock. Now thats a storm name.

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 12:29 AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml

928.4 mb. Closing in on Category 5 status. :wow

MannyIsGod

08-31-2010, 12:35 AM

the lowest actual pressure i've seen is 931.

MannyIsGod

08-31-2010, 12:45 AM

Also - definitely looks like its developing a concentric eyewall situation. I believe we're going to see an EWRC before it hits cat 5 so this may be the strongest it ever gets.

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 01:17 AM

Also - definitely looks like its developing a concentric eyewall situation. I believe we're going to see an EWRC before it hits cat 5 so this may be the strongest it ever gets.

Earl looks like he's continuing to strengthen or at least maintain intensity even though he's going through the EWRC. A bit unexpected, but his convection looks good, and his outflow is great except to the W where there's some dry air.

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 03:03 AM

Pressure continuing to drop even with dry air to his W.

Pressure has now fallen officially to 931 mb, from 943 earlier today and 935 late on the 30th.

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 08:01 AM

Starting to get a little nervous here in dc. Latest forecast models have shifted the track further west. Any more and we could see at least tropical storm force winds in this area, and some models have us right in the hurricane-force path.

The eye collapsed this morning. Both earl and the frontal system have slowed significantly. He's still a strong cat 4 with no visible eye on the satellite, but he still has lots of strong convection.

If you live on the east coast, you should start making preliminary plans in case the worst happens.

Trainwreck2100

08-31-2010, 08:07 AM

Bout fuckin time the entire East coast needs to be taken down a peg

MannyIsGod

08-31-2010, 08:22 AM

Dr. Gonzo

08-31-2010, 08:31 AM

Bout fuckin time the entire East coast needs to be taken down a peg

Classic trainwreck2100. :toast

Soul_Patch

08-31-2010, 08:54 AM

Eyewall replacement started. It was really obvious on radar last night. I don't think it will get stronger than it is now and hopefully that is the case. I saw the cone made a pretty good shift to the west overnight. This storm could rake the entire east coast from NC up.

Are the water temps up there going to be able to sustain a storm like this? Or will it weaken quite a bit?

Im set to go on a cruise on 3 October in the Caribbean. I hope all these storms finish up this month.

Trainwreck2100

08-31-2010, 08:57 AM

Are the water temps up there going to be able to sustain a storm like this? Or will it weaken quite a bit?

Im set to go on a cruise on 3 October in the Caribbean. I hope all these storms finish up this month.

doubtful, cause this month ends today

MannyIsGod

08-31-2010, 09:03 AM

The temps are high for quite a bit of water in its path. Its not until it passes north of North Carolina or so that the water temp begins to really become to low to sustain a storm like this.

Its the air thats going to start changing to a less favorable situation. Shear is expected to rise in the next day and there is a lot of dry air that was pulled down from the north by Danielle's circulation north of Earl. If that gets pulled into the system it will slow down the system.

MannyIsGod

08-31-2010, 09:04 AM

Oh and September will be pretty busy huricanewise but October will probably have a decent amount of storms as well.

Soul_Patch

08-31-2010, 09:07 AM

Oh and September will be pretty busy huricanewise but October will probably have a decent amount of storms as well.

=( I'm hoping for a window of at least one week.

Trainwreck2100

08-31-2010, 09:13 AM

=( I'm hoping for a window of at least one week.

You'll not need a window on yo ship when hurrican tomika blasts out the whole port side deck, think of all the fish you'll see as your ass goes straight to the bottom o davy jones

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 10:06 AM

He's weakened a bit, down to 939mb. However, he's expected to strengthen today over warm waters, and the frontal passage that was expected to recurve him to the East is crawling across the US.

Some models are now predicting a landfall in North Carolina, but most have Earl skirting the coast.

Either way, I'm hoping for some big waves to watch. :hungry:

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 10:41 AM

934. Intensity continuing to fluctuate, but he's definitely not weakening significantly.

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 02:18 PM

12z ECMWF has two direct hits, in eastern NC and near Cape Cod. That is actually similar to its 00z run.

This model has been among the best indicator of storm paths in recent tracking, and is now showing a direct or near direct hit on North Carolina.

Not sure how many we have on ST, but anyone on the NE coast, especially those along or near coastlines, should now begin monitoring and prepping for possible evacuations and/or loss of power over an extended period of time. There is a strong chance that some of the Eastern seaboard will feel at least tropical storm force winds with Earl, as models are continuing to trend westward as the trough in the center of the country continues to move too slowly to push Earl out to sea.

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 02:59 PM

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=103875

Earl from the ISS.

MannyIsGod

08-31-2010, 03:44 PM

Awesome picture in the true sense of the word.

JoeChalupa

08-31-2010, 03:53 PM

:tu

MannyIsGod

08-31-2010, 05:31 PM

Earl looks ragged but still has a pressure of 940 mb so he's not really that weak.

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 07:14 PM

Even better picture here, IMO. This is my current laptop background:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v116/whisperingstorm/HurricaneEarl.jpg

I think Earl is definitely strengthening right now. Cloud tops are cooler, and he's redeveloped outflow to his Western quadrant.

benefactor

08-31-2010, 08:23 PM

I don't really see it strengthening much, if any. The shear(10-20 knots) that is being produced by the upper level southwest winds from a trough west of Earl is predicted to continue through Friday. Earl is strong enough and is over warm enough waters to possibly maintain its current intensity, but it's not going to get stronger in those conditions. If anything the shear could push some of the very dry air that is to the northwest into the storm and weaken it some before it brushes the EC.

IronMexican

08-31-2010, 08:39 PM

Goku could do what this thing is doing by just going Kaioken.

MannyIsGod

08-31-2010, 08:44 PM

MannyIsGod

08-31-2010, 08:46 PM

Actually, looking at the latest water vapor Earl is looking much better. The low to its west has done wonders for the outflow to the north and I think it might have managed to fight off the dry air. We'll see what it does with the dry air to the West and SW now.

I didn't think it was going to get stronger but the WV situation looks really really good now.

benefactor

08-31-2010, 09:17 PM

The eye is peeking back through on the latest satellite images. Looks like the EWRC is just about done.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Sisk

08-31-2010, 09:23 PM

Great pictures Cry Havoc :tu

gospursgojas

08-31-2010, 10:58 PM

When manny posts to watch a storm...I listen.

Dude totally called Katrina before anyone thought it was gonna be what it became

Cry Havoc

08-31-2010, 11:18 PM

When manny posts to watch a storm...I listen.

Dude totally called Katrina before anyone thought it was gonna be what it became

:lol

I wasn't on ST then, but I had a bad feeling about Katrina as soon as she headed for the gulf.

benefactor

09-01-2010, 05:49 AM

Earl is back to a Cat. 3 now. :tu

Couple this with 5 out of 6 models(GFS,UKMET,NGFDL,NOGAPS,GFDL,HWRF) predicting that Earl will not make a direct hit on SC and things are looking much better than they did when Earl exploded into a Cat. 4 in a matter of hours.

Earl should still be pretty problematic though. Anyone living within 50ish miles of the coast should probably consider heading further inland. Earl still has hurricane force winds that extend 90 miles out from the center and tropical strom force winds that extend 200 miles out. At the very least much of the EC could see 12 - 15 hours worth of TS force winds and lot of flooding from the rain.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 08:56 AM

I wouldn't take much solace in the classification as a cat 3. Its all of a 5 knot drop in wind speed.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 09:47 AM

Earl looks to be on his way back to Cat 4 status, his Dvorak classification is rising right now.

He is heading due NW. Forecast models are carrying him out to sea missing the coast, but I don't necessarily think they're correct, just yet. I could still easily see a landfall or a very close brush for NC in store.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 09:57 AM

What I hate about people and forecast models is how they focus on the line. This is the reason why the NHC removed the center line from their cones in the recent past. The storm isn't a small feature - its pretty large to either side of that line. Also, those forecasts and models have margins of error. As we get down to within a few days it drops to about 200 miles but when the model is predicting the storm to be within 50 miles of the coast then you can see why that is pretty much forecasting a hit.

Up until this storm actually passes the Eastern seaboard people should just pay attention. The models have been in the same swath of ocean for days now but they've moved back and forth a couple of hundred miles as they usually do.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 10:14 AM

First warnings out:

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

BlackSwordsMan

09-01-2010, 10:35 AM

those pictures are so beautiful

BlackSwordsMan

09-01-2010, 10:35 AM

I hope opie is ok =[

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 10:55 AM

Earl now has a Central Dense Overcast, and looks to be redeveloping his outflow to the south. He's accelerating as he puts the dry air behind him and reaches the prevailing westerlies.

Models are now shifted back West of where they were this morning/last evening, when it looked like a clear miss. NC is definitely still in the scope of Earl's cannon, if they aren't in the crosshairs.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 10:59 AM

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-17639-1283356867.gif

One model's run for Friday. Earl is right off the coast of NC, with a central pressure at that point of 979.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 11:04 AM

PakiDan

09-01-2010, 12:26 PM

goku could do what this thing is doing by just going kaioken.

kami hami haaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!

JudynTX

09-01-2010, 12:55 PM

How bad will Maine get hit?

benefactor

09-01-2010, 01:09 PM

The GFS is now putting Earl over Cape Hatteras, NC, then moving right off the coast of Long Island!

This would be an absolute worst case scenario for the East Coast. Damage would likely run well into the billions and would give Earl a real chance to be a top 5 hurricane as far as damage goes.
Man you guys are doom and gloom. :lol

I'm not sure what GFS model you are looking at, but the GFS ensemble model from 10 AM is still showing Earl well off the coast. NHC wind probabilities are around 20% for hurricane force winds at Cape Hatteras and less than 10% at Montauk Point, which is at the very tip of Long Island. With most of the hurricane force winds offshore, surge becomes less of an issue also. The lack of these two things make the storm less worrisome from a disaster standpoint.

All in all I think it will be what I said earlier...TS force winds for 12-15 hours for most locations with a few hurricane force gusts and a lot of rain. There will be damage and people in places like Cape Hatteras and Montauk Point would be wise to move further inland, but I don't see it being cataclysmic.

benefactor

09-01-2010, 01:26 PM

What I hate about people and forecast models is how they focus on the line. This is the reason why the NHC removed the center line from their cones in the recent past. The storm isn't a small feature - its pretty large to either side of that line. Also, those forecasts and models have margins of error. As we get down to within a few days it drops to about 200 miles but when the model is predicting the storm to be within 50 miles of the coast then you can see why that is pretty much forecasting a hit.

Earl should still be pretty problematic though. Anyone living within 50ish miles of the coast should probably consider heading further inland. Earl still has hurricane force winds that extend 90 miles out from the center and tropical strom force winds that extend 200 miles out. At the very least much of the EC could see 12 - 15 hours worth of TS force winds and lot of flooding from the rain.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 01:30 PM

Man you guys are doom and gloom. :lol

I'm not sure what GFS model you are looking at, but the GFS ensemble model from 10 AM is still showing Earl well off the coast. NHC wind probabilities are around 20% for hurricane force winds at Cape Hatteras and less than 10% at Montauk Point, which is at the very tip of Long Island. With most of the hurricane force winds offshore, surge becomes less of an issue also. The lack of these two things make the storm less worrisome from a disaster standpoint.

All in all I think it will be what I said earlier...TS force winds for 12-15 hours for most locations with a few hurricane force gusts and a lot of rain. There will be damage and people in places like Cape Hatteras and Montauk Point would be wise to move further inland, but I don't see it being cataclysmic.

They've already started posting hurricane warnings, which means conditions will likely be worse than TS force.

I was a bit hasty in my early assessment, but it still remains a large threat to the entire Eastern seaboard.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 01:36 PM

This is really cool.

Live footage of the beach at Kill Devil Hills in NC.

http://beachcam.kdhnc.com/view/index.shtml

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 01:38 PM

the GFS is less than a 100 miles from the OB - that really isn't "well off" the coast which was my point. It is basically even money as to whether or not the eye goes over any portion of that 100 miles.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 01:39 PM

In any event, the models aren't whats worth watching anymore. Its going to go somewhere near that coast. You should watch the water vapor looks and track the trough in the center of the nation to see how fast it moves eastward. Thats what is really going to matter.

benefactor

09-01-2010, 01:39 PM

They've already started posting hurricane warnings, which means conditions will likely be worse than TS force.

I was a bit hasty in my early assessment, but it still remains a large threat to the entire Eastern seaboard.
Oh I agree that the EC is probably going to take a pretty good lashing, but nothing like Ike running into Bolivar or anything like that.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 01:42 PM

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-15491-1283365272.gif

benefactor

09-01-2010, 01:43 PM

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 01:46 PM

Oh I agree that the EC is probably going to take a pretty good lashing, but nothing like Ike running into Bolivar or anything like that.

It was never going to be that bad in the sense that no area is going to get damaged that much. That being said the east coast is lined up and down with expensive property and it wouldn't take much to have a lot of damage and a high financial number if it rakes the east coast or some of the more valuable beach fronts.

I'd hate to see the insurance costs if this thing goes through the cape cod area as a major.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 01:47 PM

It was never going to be that bad in the sense that no area is going to get damaged that much. That being said the east coast is lined up and down with expensive property and it wouldn't take much to have a lot of damage and a high financial number if it rakes the east coast or some of the more valuable beach fronts.

I'd hate to see the insurance costs if this thing goes through the cape cod area as a major.

Exactly, that's what I was thinking when I initially posted. Lots of areas along the coast are extremely close to sea level... a surge of just 10 feet would be catastrophic.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 01:50 PM

:tu

NOAA water vapor loop for those interested:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv-s.html

I was thinking more like this and don't zoom just animate that image. The trough in the center of the country is the most important thing to watch. Its not moving very fast.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 01:55 PM

I just got an unconfirmed report of a surface pressure of 929 mb. This would put him very close to Category 5 status, well in excess the min required for a cat 4 storm.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 01:57 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007_hd.html#a_topad

Confirmed by hurricane hunters. 929. Earl will likely be soon reclassified as a Cat 4 as his wind field responds to the pressure difference.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 02:20 PM

Weird, there aren't any new vortex messages. We'll see if we get one soon.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 02:25 PM

Weird, there aren't any new vortex messages. We'll see if we get one soon.

Apparently wunderground is data sets from the 31st. :rolleyes

Central pressure probably still around 940 mb, although that 138kt sustained flight level winds is accurate.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 02:26 PM

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

That always has the latest HH stuff. I don't think there's a mission in Earl right now.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 02:27 PM

Those winds are odd because the pressure hasn't dropped and the eye temperature differential is only 5 degrees C so thats not an indicator of a strong storm.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 04:09 PM

Latest NHC forecast track puts Earl right on the OB and then making a Cape Cod landfall as well. They also reupped him to a Cat 4.

JudynTX

09-01-2010, 05:20 PM

I love Ustream. :D These guys are looking for Earl. :lol

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricanetrack-com

benefactor

09-01-2010, 06:37 PM

The sheer from the southwest that was predicted to affect Earl through Friday has dropped by 10 knots in the past 24hrs. That's the likely reason for Earl intensifying some. According to SHIPS intensity forecasts it shouldn't drop much more below that.

What a good looking storm...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Let's hope he keeps pushing east.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 06:50 PM

Earl is powering up. He looks like a MONSTER bearing down on the East coast. What a scary IR image, benefactor.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 06:54 PM

Manny, benefactor, you think he's got a shot at Cat 5? The waters where he is are warm enough to support it....

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 07:16 PM

927.5mbs, 129 knot 30 second sustained flight level, 130 knot flight level gust, 100 knot surface.

:wow

7 mbs from Cat 5 pressure.

benefactor

09-01-2010, 07:22 PM

Earl is powering up. He looks like a MONSTER bearing down on the East coast. What a scary IR image, benefactor.
Indeed. We'll probably see some fluctuation in strength over the next 24 hours...hopefully towards lower.

Another positive thing about Earl is that if you had to pick a side of the hurricane to brush the EC then this is it. The worst of the storm surge is located at the right front part of the storm. Even if the eye makes a brush with coast, the surge should not that bad. If he can stay around 50 miles offshore, the EC should be in decent shape.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 07:37 PM

Indeed. We'll probably see some fluctuation in strength over the next 24 hours...hopefully towards lower.

Another positive thing about Earl is that if you had to pick a side of the hurricane to brush the EC then this is it. The worst of the storm surge is located at the right front part of the storm. Even if the eye makes a brush with coast, the surge should not that bad. If he can stay around 50 miles offshore, the EC should be in decent shape.

Yeah, the NE quadrant is always (well, almost always) the strongest for hurricanes in our little corner of the world.

Earl looking much stronger still. I think by the 11 pm EST update, he'll hit Cat 5 status. Perfect symmetry in Earl's core right now.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 07:38 PM

I don't think he'll hit CAT 5 because even though his pressure is dropping its such a big storm and it takes too much time for those winds to catch up.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 07:41 PM

I hope NASA is getting good data with their GlobalHawk right now.

http://grip.nsstc.nasa.gov/

benefactor

09-01-2010, 07:43 PM

Manny, benefactor, you think he's got a shot at Cat 5? The waters where he is are warm enough to support it....
You bet they are. Here is a good picture of water temps along the coast:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2010/aug31_sst.jpg

The good thing about this graphic is that if Earl does hit Cape Cod, he should weaken in the cooler waters leading up to it. After that the bottom should fall out of him and will probably be a weak Cat 1 or weaker before landing in Nova Scotia.

He is at the low end of a Cat 4 though and if SHIPS shear forecasts stay the same, he shouldn't get a whole lot stronger than this.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 07:55 PM

He'll weaken before MA but more due to the trough sweeping him up than the cold water. He'll be moving too fast for the water to have that much of an effect on him but 30+ mph of sheer affecting his circulation will certainly start to tear him apart.

Also for good rapid intensification, if I remember correctly you need about 60 KJ per cubic CM of TCHP and if you look at the TCHP maps he's about to leave that. The high SSTs will help him maintain strength but they really don't help a storm reach the next level.

Well see but I think its unlikely.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 08:08 PM

Also the last Vortex message wasn't an indicator this baby is going Cat 5.

932 mb pressurem, only a 7 degree temp differential in the eye and an open eyewall to the south.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 00:01Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Earl9
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°59'N 73°26'W (26.9833N 73.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 277 miles (445 km) to the ENE (61°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 98kts (~ 112.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the E (88°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 183° at 130kts (From the S at ~ 149.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the E (87°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 932mb (27.52 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,510m (11,516ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,994m (13,104ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:46Z

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 08:19 PM

Also the last Vortex message wasn't an indicator this baby is going Cat 5.

Well, just 10-12 hours ago he wasn't even supposed to reach Cat 4 status. I wouldn't rule anything out with water temps this warm. He'll probably hit the top end of Cat 4 status at least, if he hasn't already done so.

benefactor

09-01-2010, 08:20 PM

Alright...I'm hurricaned out for the day. I'm giving it a rest until tomorrow. We'll know more then anyway.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 08:29 PM

Then again Advanced Dvorak Technique numbers are probably approaching an 7 right now which is a strong cat four.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 08:30 PM

Hurricaned out? IMPOSSIBLE!

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 08:31 PM

Recon just made another pass through the center - hopefully we get another Vortex soon.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 08:38 PM

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +12.1C

There you go, Manny.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 08:38 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbnails/thumbs/tc10/ATL/07L.EARL/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/thumb/20100901.2321.f16.x.91h.07LEARL.110kts-941mb-257N-727W.96pc.jpg

Thats a MW pass about 2 hours old. Pretty damn nice eye structure.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 08:39 PM

I need to read more on how these microwave sat's work. They are invaluable for discerning the inner structure of these storms.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 08:42 PM

I need to read more on how these microwave sat's work. They are invaluable for discerning the inner structure of these storms.

He's wrapping the deepest convection all the way around his eye. I'd say it's closed off at this point. Beautiful storm.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 08:42 PM

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES01312010245wrjxKf.jpg

Symmetric is exceptional. I can't believe they're going to find an open eyewall any longer.

CH, Annular? :lol

(not yet)

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 09:19 PM

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES01312010245wrjxKf.jpg

Symmetric is exceptional. I can't believe they're going to find an open eyewall any longer.

CH, Annular? :lol

(not yet)

:lmao

They've been talking about it on the accuweather forums... actually for two days. But the knowledgeable weathercasters are ignoring those posts or basically saying, "Uh, no."

He's very symmetrical, but this is typified by many hurricanes nearing Cat 5. So, he has some annular characteristics, but he's not really in that neighborhood yet. :lol

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 09:27 PM

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES01452010245F3Ioax.jpg

Holy. Crap.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 09:38 PM

The eye of Earl is bigger than Lake Okeechobee! :wow

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 09:42 PM

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-1296-1283395492.jpg

Fucking epic.

benefactor

09-01-2010, 09:46 PM

Hurricaned out? IMPOSSIBLE!
Well...the long day at work probably has something to do with it too. :) I'll check back in in the AM.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 09:46 PM

Alright...I'm hurricaned out for the day. I'm giving it a rest until tomorrow. We'll know more then anyway.

I still see you! :hat

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 09:46 PM

Well...the long day at work probably has something to do with it too. :) I'll check back in in the AM.

I still see you! :hat

:lmao

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 09:47 PM

Mets on the accuweather forum are now predicting Cat 5 intensity in the next hurricane hunter pass.

Gotta say I agree. This thing is a beast.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 10:02 PM

We'll see - the plane is north of PR right now and on its way in. I reccomend following along in Google Earth since you have the sickness just like me, CH.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 10:03 PM

Latest advisory has it at 120kts.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 10:04 PM

We'll see - the plane is north of PR right now and on its way in. I reccomend following along in Google Earth since you have the sickness just like me, CH.

:lmao

Good idea. Downloading now.... haven't put GE on my Alienware laptop yet. :downspin:

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 10:04 PM

I just don't see cat 5 because the pressure is going to need to go near 910mb for its winds to get there. We'll see though.

MannyIsGod

09-01-2010, 10:05 PM

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Thats the link for the recon GE data.

Cry Havoc

09-01-2010, 10:12 PM

140 mph sustained, 932mb.

Cry Havoc

09-02-2010, 07:29 AM

Well, Earl almost made it, but now he's encountering shear to his NW. Still up to 145 mph sustained, though.

benefactor

09-02-2010, 07:38 AM

Morning guys. It's going to be a close one. Turning a bit perhaps?

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/100902122010_an.gif

Cry Havoc

09-02-2010, 07:45 AM

He's definitely shifting more N. Motion is now around 340 degrees.

Cry Havoc

09-02-2010, 07:48 AM

http://beachcam.kdhnc.com/view/index.shtml

The beach is abandoned, but they left the cams up. :tu This will be AWESOME to watch.

Cry Havoc

09-02-2010, 08:10 AM

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/45000/45583/ISS024-E-012920_lrg.jpg

Cry Havoc

09-02-2010, 11:46 AM

Up to 943 mbs. Eyewall starting to fall apart. What a ride it's been.

Unofficially the strongest hurricane ever at his latitude.

benefactor

09-02-2010, 12:02 PM

Looks like Cape Hatteras is going to be spared a direct hit. Now we have to hope that he stays on track and curves towards the east. If he stays further west and directly hits any part of Long Island it could be very bad.

MannyIsGod

09-02-2010, 12:53 PM

Up to 943 mbs. Eyewall starting to fall apart. What a ride it's been.

Unofficially the strongest hurricane ever at his latitude.

There have been a few stronger. Pretty nasty the way he blew up last night though. His structure was textbook.

benefactor

09-02-2010, 01:14 PM

The Reckoning

09-02-2010, 02:39 PM

just wait until the cold front ends in the US and hurricane season reaches its peak in september. thatll give them a free pass into the US. there are more storms sprouting off africa as we speak.

Sense

09-02-2010, 02:46 PM

http://beachcam.kdhnc.com/view/index.shtml

The beach is abandoned, but they left the cams up. :tu This will be AWESOME to watch.

It's not abandoned.. there's people just watching

MannyIsGod

09-02-2010, 04:59 PM

Strength continues to fluctuate...back to Cat 3 after being a pretty strong Cat 4. He could go back to Cat 4 though as he hits the very warm Gulf Stream waters...depending on how much shear is affecting him at that time.

Nope. Gonna weaken all the way on out from here baring something short of a miracle. The trough is going to start affecting him more and more from here on out and there is no way a hurricane gets to four status in that type of environment.

Good news too because it looks like Cape Cod is going to have a fun ride. Sucks for the rich white people there.

benefactor

09-02-2010, 06:30 PM

Yeah...looks like the trough is really starting to take him down. He's barely a Cat 3 now. Thankfully it got there on time.

MannyIsGod

09-02-2010, 09:01 PM

Earl was the best kind of strong storm: It got studied extensively, it was a very strong storm, and it likely won't hit anything while its very strong.

Trainwreck2100

09-03-2010, 12:00 AM

Earl was the best kind of strong storm: It got studied extensively, it was a very strong storm, and it likely won't hit anything while its very strong.

Actually the best kind of strong storm is one that kills a bunch of assholes

Cry Havoc

09-03-2010, 10:04 AM

Earl was the best kind of strong storm: It got studied extensively, it was a very strong storm, and it likely won't hit anything while its very strong.

+1

Plus it's giving us some much needed relief from the heat here so far! :tu It's incredibly overcast outside right now. Almost like night at 11 am.

benefactor

09-04-2010, 09:16 PM

Earl went down swinging today. He still managed to hit Nova Scotia with 60+ MPH sustained winds and gusts that went almost hurricane force.

Cry Havoc

09-04-2010, 10:27 PM

Earl went down swinging today. He still managed to hit Nova Scotia with 60+ MPH sustained winds and gusts that went almost hurricane force.

An example of why you should never underestimate these storms.

benefactor

09-04-2010, 10:58 PM

An example of why you should never underestimate these storms.
Yes sir. I talked to a girl at work who moved over here from NC. I was going on about how stupid it was to stick around with a hurricane coming. She just brushed me off and smiled..."My parents stayed. We never left for the storms."

Perhaps her parents will be trying to escape one day when a bad one rolls through...on the phone with the 911 operator that is telling them to write their social security numbers on their arm.

Cry Havoc

09-04-2010, 11:21 PM

Yes sir. I talked to a girl at work who moved over here from NC. I was going on about how stupid it was to stick around with a hurricane coming. She just brushed me off and smiled..."My parents stayed. We never left for the storms."

Perhaps her parents will be trying to escape one day when a bad one rolls through...on the phone with the 911 operator that is telling them to write their social security numbers on their arm.

Hugo and Isabel come to mind.