RandomGuy
09-17-2010, 09:18 AM
For all the noise around the Big Bad Stimulus bill, the absence of those funds in the coming fiscal year will leave some rather large holes in a lot of state budgets, Texas included.-RG
By PEGGY FIKAC
AUSTIN BUREAU (Houston Chronicle Website)
AUSTIN - The working estimate of the looming state budget shortfall has grown to about $21 billion in the face of smaller-than-expected tax revenues and projected higher costs for education and health care, legislative staff said Monday.
Previous estimates topped out at about $18 billion for the upcoming two-year budget period.
"There are a lot of moving parts to the budget, and unfortunately, a lot of them are moving in the wrong direction," budget expert Dale Craymer, president of the Texas Taxpayers and Research Association, said of the new estimate.
The latest estimate from legislative budget writers' staff comes after the state closed the books on the 2010 fiscal year Aug. 31.
Tax collections dampened by the recession are about $1 billion worse than anticipated, according to figures discussed by staff.
Another $2 billion of the shortfall estimate is tied to new projections for growth in areas such as public school enrollment, Medicaid caseloads and higher health care costs for prisoners, government employees and retirees. Staff called the figure a rolling estimate.
Lawmakers have not begun writing the next budget, but the political cost already is being tallied: Democrat Bill White continues to work to use the issue against GOP Gov. Rick Perry.
Perry continues to say he's the one with experience to lead in handling this shortfall as he did when lawmakers closed a $10 billion shortfall in 2003. Then, lawmakers made substantial cuts, deregulated tuition and raised fees.
The size of the shortfall has been a moving target. Earlier this year, the gap was estimated to be at least $11 billion.
In May, House Appropriations Committee Chairman Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie, upped the projection to as much as $18 billion. GOP state Comptroller Susan Combs is scheduled to make a formal revenue estimate in January, when lawmakers convene.
'Stay tuned'
White, in the Rio Grande Valley Monday, said the budget shortfall showed "Rick Perry failed to plan ahead and come clean with the people of the state about the state's financial crisis."
Perry spokesman Mark Miner questioned the new $21 billion figure.
"Where did that number come from?" he said. "As the governor has said, the official number will come from the comptroller."
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Steve Ogden, R-Bryan, took issue with the $21 billion estimate. He said the figure "takes into account about 15 assumptions, all of which may not be right."
Ogden acknowledged a "structural deficit" of $10 billion to $11 billion, his tally for one-time fund balances and stimulus money used to fund the current budget.
Asked whether, for example, the state must give more money to schools to cover increased enrollment, Ogden said, "You'd like to, but you don't have to. ... We'll certainly look for every way to avoid any type of cuts to public education, because it's that important. But stay tuned."
Getting to work
Rep. Richard Raymond, a Democrat from Laredo who is vice-chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, said he has suggested to Pitts that the budget-writing committee start hearings right after the election.
Committees already have been at work during the interim. House Speaker Joe Straus appeared before Pitts' committee in May to call for lawmakers to close the budget gap without new taxes while suggesting that "significant cuts" will be needed.
The shortfall estimate includes the use of one-time sources to balance the current budget. It also assumes revenue coming in shy of predictions and a need to cover growth in public school enrollment and health care.
The state faces continuing pressure from a decision to take on more of the cost of public education by lowering local school property tax rates without raising state taxes enough to cover the expense.
Lawmakers have a rainy day fund that's estimated to have $8.2 billion next year, but it takes a super-majority vote to spend the money.
San Antonio Express-News reporter Lynn Brezosky contributed to this report.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7199592.html
By PEGGY FIKAC
AUSTIN BUREAU (Houston Chronicle Website)
AUSTIN - The working estimate of the looming state budget shortfall has grown to about $21 billion in the face of smaller-than-expected tax revenues and projected higher costs for education and health care, legislative staff said Monday.
Previous estimates topped out at about $18 billion for the upcoming two-year budget period.
"There are a lot of moving parts to the budget, and unfortunately, a lot of them are moving in the wrong direction," budget expert Dale Craymer, president of the Texas Taxpayers and Research Association, said of the new estimate.
The latest estimate from legislative budget writers' staff comes after the state closed the books on the 2010 fiscal year Aug. 31.
Tax collections dampened by the recession are about $1 billion worse than anticipated, according to figures discussed by staff.
Another $2 billion of the shortfall estimate is tied to new projections for growth in areas such as public school enrollment, Medicaid caseloads and higher health care costs for prisoners, government employees and retirees. Staff called the figure a rolling estimate.
Lawmakers have not begun writing the next budget, but the political cost already is being tallied: Democrat Bill White continues to work to use the issue against GOP Gov. Rick Perry.
Perry continues to say he's the one with experience to lead in handling this shortfall as he did when lawmakers closed a $10 billion shortfall in 2003. Then, lawmakers made substantial cuts, deregulated tuition and raised fees.
The size of the shortfall has been a moving target. Earlier this year, the gap was estimated to be at least $11 billion.
In May, House Appropriations Committee Chairman Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie, upped the projection to as much as $18 billion. GOP state Comptroller Susan Combs is scheduled to make a formal revenue estimate in January, when lawmakers convene.
'Stay tuned'
White, in the Rio Grande Valley Monday, said the budget shortfall showed "Rick Perry failed to plan ahead and come clean with the people of the state about the state's financial crisis."
Perry spokesman Mark Miner questioned the new $21 billion figure.
"Where did that number come from?" he said. "As the governor has said, the official number will come from the comptroller."
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Steve Ogden, R-Bryan, took issue with the $21 billion estimate. He said the figure "takes into account about 15 assumptions, all of which may not be right."
Ogden acknowledged a "structural deficit" of $10 billion to $11 billion, his tally for one-time fund balances and stimulus money used to fund the current budget.
Asked whether, for example, the state must give more money to schools to cover increased enrollment, Ogden said, "You'd like to, but you don't have to. ... We'll certainly look for every way to avoid any type of cuts to public education, because it's that important. But stay tuned."
Getting to work
Rep. Richard Raymond, a Democrat from Laredo who is vice-chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, said he has suggested to Pitts that the budget-writing committee start hearings right after the election.
Committees already have been at work during the interim. House Speaker Joe Straus appeared before Pitts' committee in May to call for lawmakers to close the budget gap without new taxes while suggesting that "significant cuts" will be needed.
The shortfall estimate includes the use of one-time sources to balance the current budget. It also assumes revenue coming in shy of predictions and a need to cover growth in public school enrollment and health care.
The state faces continuing pressure from a decision to take on more of the cost of public education by lowering local school property tax rates without raising state taxes enough to cover the expense.
Lawmakers have a rainy day fund that's estimated to have $8.2 billion next year, but it takes a super-majority vote to spend the money.
San Antonio Express-News reporter Lynn Brezosky contributed to this report.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7199592.html