Hollinger has our men in blue going 48-34

[Ghazi]

finishing 5th in West.

O/U on 48?

I say over... although he makes valid points:

1. Mavs are old
2. Mavs were lucky in close games last year

But I digress... 54 win ecstasy!!

[Ghazi]

other projections of note:

Heat 66-16
Lakers 56-26
Magic 55-27
Spurs 54-28
Celtics 51-31

[Ashy Larry]

The Jazz is at 81-1 right???

[Findog]

There's not enough youth and athleticism at the guard and wing positions. I wonder how many minutes Roddy B will get this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a step back, coming off of the foot injury, increased expectations, and teams able to scout and study film of him now. His rookie year wasn't any better than that of Marquis Daniels. Will he break out into stardom, or settle into a solid rotation option like Daniels? I don't expect Dominique Jones to get that much burn or even have the same role as Roddy did last year.

I'm also dismayed that the Mavs didn't upgrade the PG position. If they hold Kidd's minutes down to 30 a game this year, that means Barea will be playing 18 mpg. Roddy didn't look good at PG in summer league and Barea is just not a rotation-caliber NBA player. Terry should get all the backup PG minutes, but for some reason the coaches seem to have forgotten that he started for us at PG back during the good ol days.

[Ghazi]

One more note, Hollinger has had the Mavs reaching less than 50 wins the past 2 years as well.

[ohmwrecker]

I agree with Hollinger's assessments, for the most part, but his W-L predictions are a little jacked. The Mavs might win more than 48 games this season, but it likely won't matter.

[Venti Quattro]

Sons can you post the projections for all teams? Thx

[sefant77]

2009-10 Recap
How old is too old?

The Mavs are about to find out. All five projected starters are on the wrong side of 30, as is ace sixth man Jason Terry. It hasn't hurt them yet -- the Mavs won 55 games last season, an amazing 10th straight year with at least 50 wins -- but one has to wonder how long the Mavs can keep churning younger players into older ones before it all collapses in a heap. Last season the Mavs accelerated the "treadmill" approach, re-signing Jason Kidd, trading for Shawn Marion and then executing a midseason deal with Washington for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. That latter deal created some delusions of grandeur since (A) word of Butler's decline apparently had failed to reach Texas, and (B) the Mavs almost immediately ripped off a 13-game winning streak. Alas, it was a mirage; while the Mavs finished second in the Western Conference standings, they were only eighth in victory margin. For the third time in four seasons, Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Nonetheless, they'll bring back largely the same crew this season. Offensively, a couple of positives stand out. First, obviously, is the continued excellence of Dirk Nowitzki, who remains among the league's most efficient performers -- not only did he produce his usual 26.7 points per 40 minutes, but he uses remarkably few possessions to rack up his points.

Theoretically, that should have left plenty of opportunities for other players to thrive. In practice, it was incredibly disappointing that Dallas finished only 10th in offensive efficiency, and the team may need to rethink how some of the pieces fit. Two other starters (Kidd and Haywood) rarely shot the ball, while the other Mavs were mostly jump-shooters. The result was predictable: Dallas ranked just 26th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, a major reason they failed to land higher in the offensive-efficiency tables.

Ironically, Dallas led the league in free throw percentage at 81.6 percent, an accomplishment that obviously would have been much more useful had it earned free throws in greater quantity. Not one Maverick finished in the top 15 at his position in free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Defensively, Dallas placed 12th, with the main talent being a very low foul rate -- not surprising for such a veteran team. Dallas was fifth in opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt, mirroring its greatest offensive weakness. Between those two items, in fact, only the Hornets' and Knicks' games featured fewer combined free throw attempts than Dallas.

Dallas' greatest skill last season wasn't offense or defense, actually -- it was pulling rabbits out of hats at the end of games. The Mavs went 18-7 in games decided by five points or less after going 18-5 in such games a year earlier; in fact, since 2004-05 the Mavs are 93-44 in these games. The outlook for Dallas this season depends in part on whether one considers that luck or skill. On one hand, 93-44 is a pretty impressive mark -- if these games were truly random, we'd expect this to happen only one time in 50,000. That makes it difficult to ascribe to random chance. However, as ESPN.com contributor Kevin Pelton has written, these aren't entirely random -- good teams will win slightly more often even in games this close. So if we use Dallas' record in non-close games in that period (.696) and modify by Pelton's formula to give them a probability of .565 in the close games, the odds of Dallas running up such an impressive record is more like 1 in 150. One in 150 still sounds ironclad -- it's statistically significant. That takes us back to the old statistician's saw that if you go looking for significance, you'll Vfind it. While the knee-jerk reaction is to attribute the Mavs' outperformance in close games to its many wily veterans, other studies have shown no correlation between age and close-game performance. Additionally, the Mavs' record in these contests dates back to a time when they weren't nearly as long in the tooth. The better question to ask is, if this is a durable skill, what other things would we expect to see? For starters, we'd expect to see more year-to-year carryover in teams' records in these games. Historically, there is absolutely no correlation between a team's close-game record one season and its record the next. Even for Dallas, there was a 9-12 season mixed in with the 18-5 and 20-4 marks. We'd also expect out-of-sample testing to show the trend holding up. But the Mavs went 8-14 in playoff games decided by five points or less in that stretch, dropping 11 of their past 12 -- including two this past spring in the first-round playoff loss to San Antonio. That explains why I didn't buy Dallas as a No. 2 seed last season, and why I suspect they'll be unlikely to stay at the 55-win level this time around. A more valid reason to believe Dallas can keep up its string of 50 wins is the one good, young player they have in the pipeline -- Rodrigue Beaubois. In fact, the Butler trade may have inadvertently thrown a wrench in the Mavs' season by preventing them from starting Beaubois. On a per-minute basis, he was the second-best Mav behind Nowitzki and led all rookies in PER -- but he rarely played. That was true even in the postseason; he played only 10 minutes in the first five games of the San Antonio series before nearly rallying the Mavs from 19 down in the concluding Game 6 … only to see the Spurs pull away while he sat the first 10 minutes of the final quarter. Pistons fans will immediately note the parallels to another rookie, Tayshaun Prince, whom Rick Carlisle had to be prodded to use more in the postseason. (Carlisle, it should be noted, squeezed about all one possibly could from this roster otherwise.) Finding a role for Beaubois will remain a challenge going forward, not least because the obvious solution -- benching Butler and cutting Jason Terry's minutes -- is going to leave some key veterans unhappy. If the Mavs are content with losing in the first round again, or perhaps the second if they get a good draw, then they can probably achieve it while leaving the 30-something quintet of veteran starters intact. They'll have a nice, safe season and no chance of winning anything important. To do anything more, however, depends on somebody like Beaubois emerging as a capable cohort to Nowitzki. Offseason Moves Dallas entered the offseason thinking it had a major card to play in the non-guaranteed contract of Erick Dampier, but it quickly became clear the team overplayed its hand. The Mavs would have been better off cashing in at the 2010 trade deadline, when they had already added Butler and Haywood but clearly needed another piece.

By the summer, so many teams had cap space and trade exceptions at least as large as Dampier's contract that the Mavs had little leverage; in fact, Utah outbid them for Al Jefferson with one of those exceptions.


Traded Matt Carroll, Eduardo Najera and Dampier to Charlotte for Tyson Chandler and Alexis Ajinca. The Mavs did the next-best thing with Dampier -- they used him to dump some unwanted salary flotsam and then gained another backup center with a huge expiring contract in Chandler, leaving open the possibility of using it in a blockbuster deal somewhere down the line. Chandler should be at least as good as Dampier; throw-in Ajinca is a failed first-rounder they'll see if they can get turned around.

Re-signed Dirk Nowitzki to a four-year, $80 million deal. Nowitzki gave the Mavs a bit of a hometown discount -- he could have signed for as much as $96 million. That should, theoretically, help the Mavs pursue other players, although Mark Cuban wasn't exactly shy about spending to upgrade the roster beforehand.

Re-signed Brendan Haywood to a six-year, $55 million deal. Dallas overpaid for Haywood, and probably knew they'd be doing this last February. The Mavs effectively purchased his Bird rights in the trade last year, with DeShawn Stevenson's burdensome contract representing the purchase price. While the last year is not guaranteed -- one of Dallas' favorite cap tricks -- the odds of Haywood being a $10 million player at age 35 are roughly on par with my chances of outrunning Usain Bolt.

Unfortunately for Dallas, the market for frontcourt talent quickly got out of hand this past summer, and they're highly unlikely to get full value from this deal. In the short term, however, they've locked up the center spot. They'll worry about the long-term later, but as long as Cuban is willing to pay luxury tax, this deal won't hurt the Mavericks.

Purchased No. 25 pick from Memphis, drafted Dominique Jones. This was less for an immediate need than a recognition that Dallas is awfully short on young talent right now. Buying a draft pick was a good way to prevent a potential crash two years down the road when the starters will go from being merely old to positively geriatric.

Signed Ian Mahinmi for one year, minimum. Mahinmi can't stay healthy, but he's been fairly productive in his limited minutes and could provide a solid fifth big man for Dallas. Also, he's 23 -- providing another inexpensive avenue to infuse the roster with some youth.

Signed Tim Thomas for one year, veteran's minimum. Thomas played reasonably well a year ago before leaving the team to tend to his sick wife, and the Mavs never adequately filled the backup power forward slot after he left. At this price he's a no-brainer.


Biggest Strength: Size
We don't think of the Mavs as bullies, but this year's team should be huge just about everywhere. It starts in the backcourt, where the 6-4 Kidd is nearly the biggest player at his position, and goes all the way to the center spot. Dallas now has two legit, productive 7-footers in Haywood and Chandler that they can rotate during games, tying down one opposing big man while the other tries to deal with the 7-foot Nowitzki on the perimeter.

Dallas's size is just as imposing on the wings. While I'm not fond of starting Butler at shooting guard, his 6-7 frame will allow him to shoot over most wings. Marion, meanwhile, has always played much taller than his own listed height of 6-7, allowing him to dominate opposing small forwards around the rim. Newcomer Jones fits this profile as well as a physical 6-5 guard.

Additionally, the Mavs have worked on adding more size on the bench with additions of players like Mahinmi and Ajinca. One other key cog, unfortunately, didn't work out when forward Tim Thomas left the team for a second straight season in order to tend to his ill wife.

There will still be times when Dallas plays small, especially in the backcourt where Kidd is likely to play a lot of mintues with either Brea, Terry or Beabouis joining him. But it appears Nowitzki wil see little or no action at center, and if so it follows that Marion's time at the four would also be limited. As a result, Dallas's frontcourt should consistently be as big or bigger than the opponents', even against the L.A.s, Portlands and Bostons off the league.

Biggest Weakness: Age
The Mavericks should be good again this year. But one must acknowledge the risk that this thing could go off the rails in a hurry. Dallas is old on paper, and it played like it too -- both the Mavs and their opponents were at or below the league average in free throws, turnovers and offensive rebounds, which are the classic signs of an older club.

Of particular concern is Dallas' age on the perimeter. While Beaubois is a glaring exception, Kidd is 37, Butler is 30 and Terry and Marion are 32. Kidd has aged extraordinarily well, but the other three all saw fairly large performance drops last season that could be the first stage of a steady decline. Kidd's numbers aren't red-flag-free either -- his rebound rate, though still impressive, has declined steadily over the past four seasons. He also could be a victim of the age around him -- while Kidd thrives in the open court, none of the other geezers will run with him.

The area of least concern is Nowitzki -- with his size and shooting ability, any age-related decline should be gradual as long as no injuries crop up. That said, if his play were to diminish, this whole house of cards would fall faster than you can say "Bennett Salvatore."



Outlook
The biggest question in projecting the Mavs is how they'll use the roster. I project each team based on the idea that they'll play their best-rated players the most (provided those players are healthy), but in Dallas' case I feel less assured than in some others. I rated them with Beaubois playing nearly 2,000 minutes after returning from injury, which would require the Mavs to use Butler exclusively as a backup small forward and to reduce Terry's minutes. I'm not sure they're ready to do this, but if Beaubois plays as well as he did a year ago, I don't think they'll have a choice.


The projection for Beaubois is perhaps too optimistic; on the other hand, Kidd's looks far too negative. On balance, it evens out. The other factor to consider is the magic beans the Mavs have been using to spirit close games into the win column in recent seasons. I remain a non-believer, but if you want to give Dallas extra credit for this you should add about three wins to the total below.

The other factor to consider is the Mavs' willingness to spend along the way. If a deal crops up, they'll make it, even if it costs them even more in luxury tax. Considering they have $27 million in expiring contracts with Butler, Chandler and Stevenson, they'll probably do something between now and the trade deadline.

At the end of it all, however, it looks like more of the same. The Mavs are probably still another year or two away from their age catching up to them. In the meantime, they'll be the same middle-of-the-pack Western Conference playoff team they've been throughout the Carlisle era.

Prediction: 48-34, 2nd in Southwest Division, 5th in Western Conference

[sefant77]

Love this part:


but one has to wonder how long the Mavs can keep churning younger players into older ones before it all collapses in a heap. Last season the Mavs accelerated the "treadmill" approach, re-signing Jason Kidd, trading for Shawn Marion and then executing a midseason deal with Washington for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood.Still trying desperatly to rip the Harris-Kidd trade with the age thing.

Trading 35 year old Stackhouse + trash for 31 year old Marion

Trading almost 30 year old Howard + trash for almost 30 year old Butler and 30 year old Haywood.

Trading 35 year old Damp for 28 year old Chandler

Drafting Roddy

Drafting DoJo

So where did we actually "keep churning" younger players into older ones?


By the summer, so many teams had cap space and trade exceptions at least as large as Dampier's contract that the Mavs had little leverage; in fact, Utah outbid them for Al Jefferson with one of those exceptions.We had the option and the trade on the table to get Jefferson and didnt want him. Period. And no one expepted that amount of S&T deals and trade exceptions. And how the Mavs could have "overvalue" the Dust if it was simply a potential "if a big player want to come here we have the asset for it" chip anyway?


The Mavs would have been better off cashing in at the 2010 trade deadline, when they had already added Butler and Haywood but clearly needed another piece.For who?


Re-signed Brendan Haywood to a six-year, $55 million deal. Dallas overpaid for Haywood, and probably knew they'd be doing this last February. The Mavs effectively purchased his Bird rights in the trade last year, with DeShawn Stevenson's burdensome contract representing the purchase price. While the last year is not guaranteed -- one of Dallas' favorite cap tricks -- the odds of Haywood being a $10 million player at age 35 are roughly on par with my chances of outrunning Usain Bolt.Throwing out the last 10 million year but not writing his average rate of just (!) 8.3 after ridiculous paydays for Amir Johnson, Drew Gooden and that he was kind of the only solid center in the whole FA.

[Koolaid_Man]

finishing 5th in West.

O/U on 48?

I say over... although he makes valid points:

1. Mavs are old
2. Mavs were lucky in close games last year

But I digress... 54 win ecstasy!!


you mean your men in tights? cough cough...:lol

[Giuseppe]

O & Forever!

[Findog]

I actually really like the frontcourt rotation of Haywood, Dirk and Chandler. It could have been even better if they had been able to keep Tim Thomas or get Al Harrington. Roddy should also have an expanded role. If he can build on his rookie campaign, then I think we're as good as any team not named the Lakers, and that includes the ex-Sonics. If he stands still or regresses, I think it will be hard to duplicate last year's tally of 55 wins and a first-round exit. Everything pretty much hinges on Roddy.

Where this team is subpar is at the guard and wing positions. There's just not enough youth and athleticism. Marion and Butler are basically high-end role players at this point in their careers, while Terry is coming off his worst season at the age of 33. Backup PG was a weakness last year and they did nothing to address it. JJB is just not a rotation-caliber NBA player. He's fine as an energy/hustle spark plug in 15 minutes a night, somebody that can only stay on the floor by hitting shots. But if you're actually relying on him to be your primary backup to a 37 year-old starter, you're in trouble. I still don't understand why Dallas was not more aggressive in addressing backup point, especially with the MLE going unused. Roddy is not a PG, he is a slashing Barbosa type. Hopefully they can get a contribution from Dominique Jones if Carlisle is willing to give him minutes.

Forecast: 46-53 wins, seeded around 3-6 in the West, first-round exit.

Ideal Rotation:

C: Haywood 28, Chandler 20
PF: Dirk 34, Marion 14
SF: Marion 16, Butler 30, Stevenson 12
SG: Roddy 25, Terry 7, Jones 16
PG: Kidd 30, Terry 18

[Veterinarian]

O & Forever!

Cubby, people are trying to have serious basketball discussion here. We'll contact you when we want to know which NBA player has the cutest kids. For now, fuck off.

[Venti Quattro]

other projections of note:

Heat 66-16
Lakers 56-26
Magic 55-27
Spurs 54-28
Celtics 51-31

Wow

[Ditty]

spurs are nowhere near that good

spurs actually addressed alot of there needs shooting(anderson & neal) & rebounding and size(splitter). Spurs are defintley better than the Mavs, age hasn't caught up to the spurs when it comes to the stats. Spurs are pretty much a perimeter defender away from being a serious contender

[ezau]

IMHO, the prediction is a bit right. However, the team is now built specifically to match up against the Lakers. Of all teams in the West right now, the Mavs have all the manpower to knock off the Lakers in a seven-game series.

[Venti Quattro]

I don't think Dallas is winning 48 games. They're more like in the 53-55 win range, like last year.

[Jelloisjigglin]

The Jazz is at 81-1 right???


:lol

[Giuseppe]

Cubby, people are trying to have serious basketball discussion here. We'll contact you when we want to know which NBA player has the cutest kids. For now, fuck off.

I'll remember this the next time you send me a PM begging me to do your wet work, Vet.

[ezau]

Cubby getting owned by Veterinarian.

[Killakobe81]

5th?! What an idiot Hollinger is but many here swear by PER and win shares ...

[badfish22]

Ideal Rotation:

C: Haywood 28, Chandler 20
PF: Dirk 34, Marion 14
SF: Marion 16, Butler 30, Stevenson 12
SG: Roddy 25, Terry 7, Jones 16
PG: Kidd 30, Terry 18

I would have Butler starting over Marion tbh.

[Killakobe81]

I say dallas is 2 in west at best 4th at worst ...

[Grey Spurfan]

I agree with Hollinger's assessments, for the most part, but his W-L predictions are a little jacked. The Mavs might win more than 48 games this season, but it likely won't matter.


Because they are chokers, amirite? :lmao

[Ignorant Spurs fan]

Because they are chokers, amirite? :lmao

They're good at getting to the Finals and leading 2-0. Get it?????????????????? (:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lma o:lmao:lmao:lmao)

[TheRealCB]

IMHO, the prediction is a bit right. However, the team is now built specifically to match up against the Lakers. Of all teams in the West right now, the Mavs have all the manpower to knock off the Lakers in a seven-game series.

We have to get to the Finals first,son. And we both know that ain't happening..

[Giuseppe]

Cubby getting owned by Veterinarian.

That ain't gonna save him, Ez. This PM event is for all-time.

Let us proceed...

[sribb43]

championship or bust

[Latarian Milton]

with the current gangstas mavs have they have no shot at the championship, nay a western championship. the lakers are still the unsurmountable blocker and there will be many other competitive contenders who are all strong enough to award the Mavs another 1st round exit, unless donnie makes another magnificent capture (like Chris Paul for example).

[Cry Havoc]

I would have Butler starting over Marion tbh.

Why? Marion needs Kidd on the court to create shots for him. Butler can come in off the bench, play as many/more minutes than Marion, and give them a huge scoring punch and energy as the 6th man.

I see the Mavs winning 50 games this year. If they can avoid a 1st round matchup with LA or SA, they could easily go to the 2nd round, or maybe even the conference finals if they manage a 3 seed. Still don't see them beating the Spurs or the Lakers, though.

[Trainwreck2100]

spurs are nowhere near that good

yeah but the west is THAT bad wouldn't be surprised to see mavs spurs at 2/3 at the end

[Rummpd]

IMHO, the prediction is a bit right. However, the team is now built specifically to match up against the Lakers. Of all teams in the West right now, the Mavs have all the manpower to knock off the Lakers in a seven-game series.



Dreamer - Spurs (especially now with Splitter), Blazers and OC all match up just as well if not better (although rightfully the LAL favored going into the season against any of them but time will tell - give me a healthy Spurs team against the Lakers with Splitter and I for one can see the Spurs (or the talented young Thunder team or a healthy Blazers team) conceivably taking down the Lakers but not the Mavs.

[NBA Fanatic]

Here is a game-by-game predictions article that says the Mavericks will win 53 games. The author thinks a full training camp will benefit Caron Butler and thinks that the Mavericks have depth, versatility, and athleticism.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5724390/dallas_mavericks_20102011_gamebygame.html?cat=9

BTW this guy predicted the Mavs would win 53 games last year too.

[sefant77]

Dreamer - Spurs (especially now with Splitter), Blazers and OC all match up just as well if not better (although rightfully the LAL favored going into the season against any of them but time will tell - give me a healthy Spurs team against the Lakers with Splitter and I for one can see the Spurs (or the talented young Thunder team or a healthy Blazers team) conceivably taking down the Lakers but not the Mavs.

Who is the dreamer? Splitter didnt play one single minute NBA.

[TheRealCB]

Here is a game-by-game predictions article that says the Mavericks will win 53 games. The author thinks a full training camp will benefit Caron Butler and thinks that the Mavericks have depth, versatility, and athleticism.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5724390/dallas_mavericks_20102011_gamebygame.html?cat=9

BTW this guy predicted the Mavs would win 53 games last year too.

Wow this guys has us losing every second game of a b2b:wow

[Ace]

For all the Spurs fans saying they match up well with the Lakers, with no quality wing defenders. Who guards Kobe?

[anonoftheinternets]

For all the Spurs fans saying they match up well with the Lakers, with no quality wing defenders. Who guards Kobe?

not saying spurs will beat lakers, but "guarding kobe" logic is flawed, right now who can guard kobe? onyl when kobe goes into "kobe-mode" or finals mode he automatically comes up with 6-27 or whatver, other than that he is unstoppable. I don't see battier's binder doing him any good against Kobe. kobe is going to get his regardless. Nba is too offense friendly these days.

[TheRealCB]

For all the Spurs fans saying they match up well with the Lakers, with no quality wing defenders. Who guards Kobe?

Yeah defending Pau and Bynum is a solved problem for them,right?

[anonoftheinternets]

that being said, its Lakers in the west then every one else. In the East i feel like writing off boston, jus like i did last year (they really surprised me). But im going to do it this year again anyway. You cant ignore hte talent of miami, and Orlando is going to do well in teh regular season, but i dont see them making the ECF, so its Bost & Miami in the ECF.

[BoricuaCJA]

spurs actually addressed alot of there needs shooting(anderson & neal) & rebounding and size(splitter). Spurs are defintley better than the Mavs, age hasn't caught up to the spurs when it comes to the stats. Spurs are pretty much a perimeter defender away from being a serious contender
I believe we did address rebounding, size and defending the P&R with splitter but we still don't know how Anderson and Neal are gonna perform. Anderson a great shooter in college but he is still a rookie. Neal did shoot very well from 3 in summer league but we will have to see how he shoots with much better basketball players playing/defending him. Its gonna be an exciting season to watch!

[monosylab1k]

...........but seriously, did he have the Jazz at 81-1?

[picc84]

The Mavs acquire a couple of lanky bums, and all of a sudden their team matches up well with the Lakers, when they couldn't even match up with the Spurs. :lol

[sefant77]

The Mavs acquire a couple of lanky bums, and all of a sudden their team matches up well with the Lakers, when they couldn't even match up with the Spurs. :lol

Butler back to around 220-225
Butler and Haywood with a full training camp
Roddy probably a MIP candidat
Chandler a better fit (more mobile) than Damp
Jones cutting down the minutes of the walking negative +/- Barea

So yes...

[badfish22]

Sefant, with the kool aid drinking

[sefant77]

Sefant, with the kool aid drinking

Nah, just thinking in the best case scenario.

Butler with a better year, less of a jumpshooter
Chandler healthy and back on like 90% of his prime NO level
Terry down to the 4th scorer behind Dirk, Butler, Roddy
Barea with less than 10min (hello DoJo)

In that case we have a shot. Even Kupchak told sunday that the Mavs will be the strongest opponent in the west.

[Cuban B]

There's not enough youth and athleticism at the guard and wing positions. I wonder how many minutes Roddy B will get this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a step back, coming off of the foot injury, increased expectations, and teams able to scout and study film of him now. His rookie year wasn't any better than that of Marquis Daniels. Will he break out into stardom, or settle into a solid rotation option like Daniels? I don't expect Dominique Jones to get that much burn or even have the same role as Roddy did last year.

I'm also dismayed that the Mavs didn't upgrade the PG position. If they hold Kidd's minutes down to 30 a game this year, that means Barea will be playing 18 mpg. Roddy didn't look good at PG in summer league and Barea is just not a rotation-caliber NBA player. Terry should get all the backup PG minutes, but for some reason the coaches seem to have forgotten that he started for us at PG back during the good ol days.

just smoke it yo


I agree with Hollinger's assessments, for the most part, but his W-L predictions are a little jacked. The Mavs might win more than 48 games this season, but it likely won't matter.

fuck you


you mean your men in tights? cough cough...:lol

fuck you


I don't think Dallas is winning 48 games. They're more like in the 53-55 win range, like last year.

you're cool


O & Forever!

fuck you i'm out

[xellos88330]

This is why the games are played. I am pretty positive the Mavs will be over 50 wins this season. The system they use in Dallas is pretty good and has had that team playing at a high level for a long period of time. To say they can't do it again is ridiculous IMO.

[pookenstein]

Marion, meanwhile, has always played much taller than his own listed height of 6-7, allowing him to dominate opposing small forwards around the rim.

The words "Marion" and and "dominate" should never appear in one sentence unsless it's like "... dominated Marion."

I think the Mavettes will be a good to very good team in the RS and then disappear in the playoffs as usual.

[phxspurfan]

This is why the games are played. I am pretty positive the Mavs will be over 50 wins this season. The system they use in Dallas is pretty good for running up meaningless regular season win totals and has had that team playing at a high level for a long period of time. To say they can't do it again is ridiculous IMO.

:toast

[Ace]

Yeah defending Pau and Bynum is a solved problem for them,right?

I already know what their response will be for that question, so I don't care to touch that subject. I just don't see how they seem to believe they can go from second round sweep to matching up with the Lakers.

[badfish22]

Barea with less than 10min (hello DoJo)


What makes you think Rick will suddenly stop playing Barea and start playing rookies?

[sefant77]

What makes you think Rick will suddenly stop playing Barea and start playing rookies?

Because Carlisle spent his "I dont play rookies" card last year and failed. He cant do it again.

Mavs have a nice starting schedule. Give DoJo a good start into the season and Carlisle will hear "Didnt he learn" all day long if he bench him. I think even Cuban would start pressuring the way he is talking about the two young guys.

Ah and Roddy came from overseas with broken english. DoJo is a proven college star and "NBA ready". Thats was one reason for Cuban to buy the pick. Immediate improvement of the roster.

Carlisle on media day:


“Well, he’s a different kind of player than we have. He’s a bigger, stronger, rugged, scoring guard that is great off the dribble – he’s got a great first step. In college, he got to the free-throw line an unbelievable amount of time. So we don’t have that element. You know, Roddy (Beaubois) can get in the paint, J.J. (Barea) can get in the paint when they’re at the 2, but they don’t have the size and strength that he has.
“That along with the fact that he’s a very good defensive player and is a physical player, those things put him into a different category and open up the possibility that he could be a factor for us. Now, the reason you have training camp is to compete for positions, earn time, not earn time, whatever. But we like what we’ve seen from him, and we’ve spent a lot of time with him on his outside shot. And he’s worked very hard at it, so that’s a part of his game that’s going to keep improving.”
So if he doesnt suck ass with the playbook, rotation etc i expect him to take Bareas role pretty fast and Bareas minutes cut down to 8-10 because he can provide Bareas offense without getting toasted at defense.

[Findog]

I'm not optimistic that Barea's minutes will be cut. PER, Plus/Minus, Win Shares, none of those stats are kind to JJB. It seems obvious that last year he was asked to do more than he is capable of at the NBA level. And they didn't do anything to upgrade the PG position in the offseason (DoJo is a 2). Sometimes you have to take a player off the roster to prevent the coach from playing him too much, but Cuban and Donnie didn't do that with JJB.

[JamStone]

Jason Terry is a point guard. His minutes should be cut too, but a more sensible solution to cut JJB's minutes is to give them to Terry. Cuban and Donnie should have forced Carlisle's hand and not re-signed Barrea so that he'd have to play Terry at PG.

[DJB]

spurs are nowhere near that good

We're nowhere near getting 4 more wins than we got last season? That makes no sense what so ever.

[sefant77]

Since when is Jason freaking Terry a PG? :lol

[JamStone]

He played quite a bit of point guard earlier in his career. He's not the best point guard, but we're talking about back-up point guard minutes anyway. He has a good handle, still has the ability to break down a defender off the dribble, and would be fine in pick-and-roll situations because of his jumper. Doesn't have the greatest vision or creativity, but he's adequate enough. Barea isn't that much better of a pure point guard.

[Giuseppe]

O & Forever!

[badfish22]

Since when is Jason freaking Terry a PG? :lol

Since when is JJ Barea a PG?

[Findog]

Since when is Jason freaking Terry a PG? :lol

2006, the year we went to the Finals. He's a much better option at backup PG than JJB. That's where the huge bulk of his minutes should be.

[Latarian Milton]

2006, the year we went to the Finals. He's a much better option at backup PG than JJB. That's where the huge bulk of his minutes should be.

in the current league JET is about 5 inches shorter than the average size of a SG. playing him at SG doesn't make much more sense than using JJB as Kidd's 1st backup tbh. IMHO the old turtle should stick to the PG position, especially when the Mavs have so many SG options.

[sefant77]

I prefer to throw DoJo in and let him share the minutes behind Kidd with Barea. DoJo is right now a better fit as PG than SG until he develops a consistent jumpshot.

Together with Terry on the court Terry can play his more favorite role as SG and at defense DoJo takes the SG and Terry the PG.

Kidd 30 / Barea 9 / DoJo 9
Butler/Roddy/Terry/Stevenson

Roddy defending PGs, DoJo SGs....

[badfish22]

lol at giving JJ 9 minutes

[SenorSpur]

He played quite a bit of point guard earlier in his career. He's not the best point guard, but we're talking about back-up point guard minutes anyway. He has a good handle, still has the ability to break down a defender off the dribble, and would be fine in pick-and-roll situations because of his jumper. Doesn't have the greatest vision or creativity, but he's adequate enough. Barea isn't that much better of a pure point guard.

While it's true that Turtlehead played the PG position earlier in his career, the fact is he was horrible at it. When he came over to the Mavs from the Hawks, I was quite surprised at how terrible he was playing that spot. He was clueless as to how to run the offense, didn't have the greatest handles and of course, he always looked for his shot first. Which did nothing to elevate the production of guys like Dirk, who were left standing around. Couple all that with the fact that he's a horrific defender and one could understand WHY the Mavs backup PG position suffered.

Once AJ became coach, he was smart enough (or frustrated enough) to transition him into a sixth man role. Six years later, not much has changed about Terry. He's still a volume shooter and still possesses the same flaws. He's always thought more of himself than what he really is. In actuality, he is what he's always been - a SG in a PG body. However, the big difference now is that his offensive efficiency has started to decline.

[SenorSpur]

Here is a game-by-game predictions article that says the Mavericks will win 53 games. The author thinks a full training camp will benefit Caron Butler and thinks that the Mavericks have depth, versatility, and athleticism.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5724390/dallas_mavericks_20102011_gamebygame.html?cat=9

BTW this guy predicted the Mavs would win 53 games last year too.

I would tend to agree that the Mavs have a ton of depth and versatility. Athleticism? I wouldn't go that far. However, they do have one of the more formidable frontcourts, this side of Fakerland.

If there was ever a such thing as having "too much depth", this team probably is a good example. Practically every member of the rotation has been a starter somewhere else. It will be hard for them to "check their egos at the door" and submit to a complimentary role. Having said that, one thing Mavs fans should be cautious of are potential chemistry issues. From all the early chirping I'm already hearing from Mavs players during media sessions, it may be gradually simmering, as several veterans have casually expressed a desire to know what their roles will be this coming season. They're not only concerned with who will be the starters, but they're also wondering when and how much they will be playing?

Some interesting questions for Mavs fans to ponder. How will Shawn Marion react when he learns he will have to cede his starting position to Caron Butler? Remember how he acted in Phoenix. How will "Turtlehead" Terry handle getting his minutes cut in favor of Roddy Beaubois? or rookie Dominique Jones? How much, if any, will Barea be affected by Beaubois eating into his minutes, at the backup PG spot? How much will Brendan Haywood pout, when he goes into one of his ineffective stretches and the coach turns more toward Tyson Chandler for production?

Head coach, Rick Carlisle, could be sitting on a potential powderkeg. He must determine how all these pieces fit. The problem is there are only so many minutes to go around. Dirk and Kidd are the only starters with guaranteed minutes. Carlisle has already shown that he is not going to "cow down" to player demands nor be influenced by public pressure. He more than proved that last seasons. Unlike the local pro football coach, (Uncle Wade Phillips), Carlisle will play who he chooses, when he chooses - despite what the owner thinks. His edict to ALL the players is simply - BE READY.

Just something for Mavs fans to keep in mind as the season unfolds.

[badfish22]

1. Shawn Marion got upset mostly because he was on a contract year, if Im not mistaken. He doesn't have to worry about that now.
2. Terry has never complained about minutes, but I doubt Carlisle will cut them as much as he needs to.
3. Who the fuck cares how beaner is affected by anything? Did you really ask that? Thats like asking how Sasha will be affected if he gets benched.
4. You have a point of the Haywood thing. He will probably bitch.

[badfish22]

My opinion on the whole PG issue is that we should immediately give Roddy the full backup PG minutes. It may wind up being a failure and Roddy could turn out to just be a undersized SG, but we might as well try. We need to stop playing solely for the regular season and start looking at the long term. Carlisle also has to have the patience to stick with him when he struggles, and he will struggle at points. I dont have much confidence in Rick to do this though.

[Latarian Milton]

1. Shawn Marion got upset mostly because he was on a contract year, if Im not mistaken. He doesn't have to worry about that now.
2. Terry has never complained about minutes, but I doubt Carlisle will cut them as much as he needs to.
3. Who the fuck cares how beaner is affected by anything? Did you really ask that? Thats like asking how Sasha will be affected if he gets benched.
4. You have a point of the Haywood thing. He will probably bitch.

the beaners are not nearly repellent as pickle breaths tbh.

[Latarian Milton]

I'm not optimistic that Barea's minutes will be cut. PER, Plus/Minus, Win Shares, none of those stats are kind to JJB. It seems obvious that last year he was asked to do more than he is capable of at the NBA level. And they didn't do anything to upgrade the PG position in the offseason (DoJo is a 2). Sometimes you have to take a player off the roster to prevent the coach from playing him too much, but Cuban and Donnie didn't do that with JJB.

the morons can just sell the midget for a future 2nd pick. The homosexual fuck plays him for no other reason but that he loves the midget. the fuck doesn't only play him, he plays him a lot. JET was mavs starting PG in their zenith years and he played rather well. after getting jason kidd, however, Jet started to be used more often off the bench as a SG than the position of PG which imho should be a congenial position for him. JET is too short to be a SG in today's nba imho.

there used to be many SGs his size in the old years but in the currently league such short SGs are rare as senior virgins tbh.

[JamStone]

While it's true that Turtlehead played the PG position earlier in his career, the fact is he was horrible at it. When he came over to the Mavs from the Hawks, I was quite surprised at how terrible he was playing that spot. He was clueless as to how to run the offense, didn't have the greatest handles and of course, he always looked for his shot first. Which did nothing to elevate the production of guys like Dirk, who were left standing around. Couple all that with the fact that he's a horrific defender and one could understand WHY the Mavs backup PG position suffered.

Once AJ became coach, he was smart enough (or frustrated enough) to transition him into a sixth man role. Six years later, not much has changed about Terry. He's still a volume shooter and still possesses the same flaws. He's always thought more of himself than what he really is. In actuality, he is what he's always been - a SG in a PG body. However, the big difference now is that his offensive efficiency has started to decline.


Jason Terry isn't a great point guard but to call him a horrible point guard is pretty foolish. When given the responsibility, at worst he was adequate. And we're talking about back-up PG minutes. You'd have to assume Kidd is still going to get at least 28-30 mpg at PG. We're talking about roughly 20 minutes or less a game. Terry could easily handle that. As Fin already pointed out in this thread, Jason Terry was the starting point guard for the 2005-06 season when the Mavs made it to the Finals. On a team that has a good to very good amount of talent on the roster, you don't need Chris Paul play from the back-up PG. If the team needed Terry to be that, sure they'd be in trouble. All they need is a PG who can handle and take care of the basketball, be a threat offensively to score when teams collapse on Dirk, and not make too many dumb decisions. The last thing you could argue is a problem as Terry will sometimes take stupid shots, but if he's playing PG as opposed to playing off the ball as mainly a scorer, you'd think he'd be smarter about that. Terry became the 6th man because Avery wanted to develop Devin Harris into the PG of the longterm future for the Mavs. Truth is Terry was generally a better PG than Devin Harris.


As for the badfish comment about Roddy...

And, sure the ideal thing to happen would be for Carlisle to give all the back-up PG minutes to Beaubois. But, let's be realistic here. Carlisle simply won't do that. I was talking about a reasonable solution that Carisle would consider if Cuban and Donnie were smart enough to not re-sign JJB. Terry could spend 15-20 mpg as a back-up PG and they'd be better off than Carlisle throwing JJB out there to go humpty-dumpty all over the court.

[Giuseppe]

Jammie, gettin' his colonoscopy bag emptied on.

tee, hee.

[SenorSpur]

Jason Terry isn't a great point guard but to call him a horrible point guard is pretty foolish. When given the responsibility, at worst he was adequate. And we're talking about back-up PG minutes.
All I know is what I saw and as far as I'm concerned, substandard ball-handling, ill-advised shot selection, and poor passing doesn't make for even an adequate, part-time PG. If simply being a scoring threat was all that was needed from the position, then O.J. Mayo would be a bonafide solution at PG for the Grizzlies. They even tried it over the summer - it failed.
As Fin already pointed out in this thread, Jason Terry was the starting point guard for the 2005-06 season when the Mavs made it to the Finals. . Sure he was the starter, but that was only because AJ felt Harris wasn't prepared to assume the role. Terry may have been a veteran, but he drove AJ about as crazy as Harris did. Just because Terry spent time at the PG position in ATL didn't make it a good idea in Dallas. The more time Terry spent at that position, the more he was exposed. The fact is they simply had no other options.

On a team that has a good to very good amount of talent on the roster, you don't need Chris Paul play from the back-up PG. If the team needed Terry to be that, sure they'd be in trouble. All they need is a PG who can handle and take care of the basketball, be a threat offensively to score when teams collapse on Dirk, and not make too many dumb decisions.
One out of three aint good. Let's not forget in addition to other flaws I mentioned, he's also a horrific defender.

The last thing you could argue is a problem as Terry will sometimes take stupid shots, but if he's playing PG as opposed to playing off the ball as mainly a scorer, you'd think he'd be smarter about that. Whether a starter or backup, the PG HAS to be one of the smartest players on the floor - not the dumbest. Regardless of where he plays, Terry has repeatedly demonstrated that he doesn't always make the smartest on-court decisions. (i.e. questionable shot selection aside, there is the ill-timed frustration fouls, and who can forget the dreaded punch to Finley's gonads, resulting in the 1-game suspension during the 2006 WCSF series)

Terry became the 6th man because Avery wanted to develop Devin Harris into the PG of the longterm future for the Mavs. Truth is Terry was generally a better PG than Devin Harris.

During some stretches during that 2006 playoff run, I'll give you that. However, recall it was Harris, who gave the Spurs, and specifically Tony Parker, fits during that epic seven-game WCSF series. The Spurs were literally powerless to stop Harris' repeated forays to the cup. He was literally a walking "and-1". Let's not forget Harris' smothering, end-to-end pressure applied to Parker, on the defensive end. Harris also lured several Spurs players into early offensive fouls by beating them to spots and courageously taking charges. The kid was absolutely stellar in that series.

Back to Terry, my final point is I'll reiterate what I said earlier. The guy was simply miscast in the PG role. While he was forced to play the role in a pinch, he simply doesn't have the natural instincts. We'll agree to disagree.

[Cry Havoc]

Jason Terry isn't a great point guard but to call him a horrible point guard is pretty foolish.

Normally I agree with you on most points, Jam, but here I gotta say... I just don't know, dude.

Jet is a scorer, and that's about it. If he isn't hot from the field, I haven't seen him help his team much. He averaged 12/2/2 against the Spurs in the playoffs. Now, obviously some of that is coaching, but Terry is not a great passer and he doesn't have great handling abilities either.

[JamStone]

I'll just leave it us having a difference in opinion. By no means am I saying Jet is a great point guard or even well above average. Saying he's adequate isn't a stretch in my mind. Especially if you're talking about 15-20 minutes of back-up duty on a team that should have plenty of other playmakers so Jet isn't the only one making all the decisions on offense. And I'm sorry, but a team that wins 60 games and makes it all the way to the NBA Finals can't have a starting point guard who is "horrible."

And realize that I'm comparing Jet to JJ Barea and replacing Barea's minutes and giving them to Jet. I don't think Jet is any worse than Barea. Jet is actually far more miscasted at shooting guard, whether starting or coming off the bench. Jet already is a subpar defender. You force him to match-up against other 2-guards in the league and I'd be willing to bet his defense suffered far more than when he guarded primarily PGs. On offense, I already acknowledged he doesn't have the greatest vision or creativity. I don't think he's a horrible ball handler. Is he Kenny Anderson with the ball on a yo-yo? No. But he isn't Kendrick Perkins dribbling the ball either, which is how some of you are trying to describe his ball handling.

I'll take Jet over JJ Barea for 15 minutes of back-up PG duty. The added bonus to that is you decrease and hopefully limit Terry's number of minutes he plays at SG, which is as bad if not worse of a problem.

But hey if you disagree more power to you...

[EricB]

Better question is how will the Mavericks handle Tyson Chandler missing his standard 30-35 games....

[Findog]

Better question is how will the Mavericks handle Tyson Chandler missing his standard 30-35 games....

Brendan Haywood will pay 30-34 minutes then and Dirk/Mahimhi will take the rest of the C minutes.

[MavDynasty]

Too many fucking egos on this time in my opinion. Caron, Marion, Chandler, and Haywood have the potential to bitch if they get benched especially Haywood and Marion. Marion bitched in the playoffs even after his huge ass contract so I don't expect anything different from them.

53 wins with a 2nd round exit as a ceiling imho. Dirk will be at an MVP level again and Caron should beast after his summer workouts and training camp but you never know. Defense will be a problem for this team again though. I think they were 15th last year in PA and Opp FG%

[Giuseppe]

Caron should beast after his summer workouts and training camp but you never know.

Gee, don't go out on a limb or anything:rolleyes

[Latarian Milton]

Better question is how will the Mavericks handle Tyson Chandler missing his standard 30-35 games....

the standard 30-35 missed games won't be very likely next season if Chandler only plays about 28mins a game leaving the rest to Haywood. IMHO the minutes at C should be splat by half between Haywood and Chandler, and chandler will take the rest minutes as dirk's backup at PF. you'll have to give haywood at least 25mins a game otherwise he will start to bitch about lack of game as findog discerned.

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

Better question is how will the Mavericks handle Tyson Chandler missing his standard 30-35 games....
Which isn't nearly as important as the question regarding how you manage to live without being able to see your dick.

[Booharv]

I'm not optimistic that Barea's minutes will be cut. PER, Plus/Minus, Win Shares, none of those stats are kind to JJB. It seems obvious that last year he was asked to do more than he is capable of at the NBA level. And they didn't do anything to upgrade the PG position in the offseason (DoJo is a 2). Sometimes you have to take a player off the roster to prevent the coach from playing him too much, but Cuban and Donnie didn't do that with JJB.

:tu This is one of my biggest beliefs in looking at pro sports in general but at the NBA in particular. I've said it several times, but getting rid of Najera and Barea should have been the biggest priorities in the offseason for the Mavs. Najera is gone so thats a big plus for you guys. Sometimes you just have to take players away from a coach to get him to stop playing them. I honestly think coaches have failed frequently for this reason and their front offices were partially responsible. Unless the coach is Byron Scott (and even then still) if you load the roster and force him to have to play younger players or players who are better by trading away the scrubs he insists on playing (sometimes even losing particular individual trades or paying teams to take them) I think you can make a coach better in spite of himself.

Bonner is that way with the Spurs. I would have taken Anthony Tolliver over him in a second this offseason, since we already know Bonner has struggled mightily hitting shots in the playoffs (36.4 career playoff fg%, 6.9 career playoff PER).

I still don't know why Marion didn't play the backup four minutes last year for the Mavs. Specifically since that would have allowed Butler to slide down to the three more often and opened up more minutes in the backcourt for Beaubois, while still giving Marion and Butler the playing time they really desire. I know Marion dislikes playing the four but he was solid at it in Phoenix, and given the option of playing 20 mins only at the 3 or 30 at the 3/4 I'm pretty fucking sure he would take playing some power forward.