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Parker2112
10-20-2010, 11:52 PM
Currency Wars: A Race to the Bottom of the Inflationary Barrel (http://www.infowars.com/currency-wars-a-race-to-the-bottom-of-the-inflationary-barrel/)

Ron Paul



Inflation fears are heating up this week as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech in Boston on Friday, causing further frantic flight into gold by those fearful of the coming “quantitative easing” the Fed is set to deliver in November. Others who view gold as a short term investment engaged in immediate profit-taking after Bernanke’s speech.

Gold is more correctly viewed as insurance against bad monetary policy decisions that erode the value of savings. Those bad decisions keep coming at an ever faster clip these days and we hear more and more talk of currency wars especially between the dollar, the Chinese yuan, the

Japanese yen, the Australian dollar, and the Euro. As the economies of the world continue to stagnate or contract, monetary policy decisions become more relevant to people who once thought this topic arcane. We have several examples this week of major fumbles on the part of the US Central Bank:
· The Federal Reserve continues to insist that inflation is too low, even while the monetary base remains at record levels, and food and gas prices continue to climb.
· As the Fed continues to drive down the value of the dollar, the government accuses China of deliberately devaluing its currency, and the House has passed legislation aimed at punishing China for this alleged devaluation.
· Low returns on US bonds are driving investors into higher-performing foreign bonds. Some of these countries are responding by reinstituting capital controls to guard against hot money and the carry trade.
· The spat with China and reemergence of capital controls have led some to fear that we are in the first stages of an all-out currency war.
· The instability in the international monetary system, the decreasing value of the dollar, and the large amounts of new US debt could lead the IMF and countries such as China, Japan, Russia, India, and Brazil to abandon the dollar and adopt a new multinational currency.

While the big players in these currency games sort everything out, the people hurt the most are the savers, the workers, and those on fixed incomes as their money buys less and less. Make no mistake — the Fed and the Treasury Department are playing games with our money, especially in how they report statistics like unemployment and inflation. These games erode our standard of living and hide just how much damage their inflationary policies are doing.

Official core inflation for the US is only 1.14%, but that excludes such crucial day-to-day goods such as food and energy. Real inflation certainly is higher, maybe much higher. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics calculates true inflation at a whopping 8.48%! But manipulated inflation statistics give the government cover when they again deny seniors a cost of living increase in their social security checks. They also serve to convince the public that further expansion of the money supply will boost the economy without causing any real pain, which has essentially been the core argument of Greenspan-Bernanke fed policy for the last 20 years.

Of course, the United States is not alone in its disastrous monetary policy decisions. These pressures are inherent in any fiat monetary system where money is created at will, for the benefit of the special interests. As all these currencies race to the bottom of the inflationary barrel, the only security to be had will be in honest money like gold as the system falls apart. My hope is that we can return to the wisdom of the Constitution and get back to sound, commodity-backed money before our dollar suffers a wholesale collapse.

Winehole23
10-21-2010, 07:26 AM
What do you think Ron Paul means by "commodity backed money?"

CosmicCowboy
10-21-2010, 08:54 AM
What do you think Ron Paul means by "commodity backed money?"

I think we may eventually see a common middle eastern currency (similar to the euro where they keep their own, too) that will possibly be backed by oil and precious metals. That will be the benchmark currency that others float against and oil will be priced in.

RandomGuy
10-21-2010, 09:16 AM
I think we may eventually see a common middle eastern currency (similar to the euro where they keep their own, too) that will possibly be backed by oil and precious metals. That will be the benchmark currency that others float against and oil will be priced in.

The Europeans can barely do it, and their interests and politics are a heck of alot more stable and aligned than any given group of ME countries.

I put that into the "Interesting idea, but politically impossible" category.

CosmicCowboy
10-21-2010, 09:24 AM
The Europeans can barely do it, and their interests and politics are a heck of alot more stable and aligned than any given group of ME countries.

I put that into the "Interesting idea, but politically impossible" category.

The reason the Euro union is threatened is because they are democracies and it's not politically popular to stay within the deficit constraints of membership in the European Union. With power much more centralized/authoritarian in the middle eastern nations they might actually have an easier time pulling it of.

CosmicCowboy
10-21-2010, 09:26 AM
BTW, China is very subtly flexing its muscles in the upcoming currency/trade war.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11584229

They are making their play to be the worlds "green energy" Walmart.

RandomGuy
10-21-2010, 09:34 AM
The reason the Euro union is threatened is because they are democracies and it's not politically popular to stay within the deficit constraints of membership in the European Union. With power much more centralized/authoritarian in the middle eastern nations they might actually have an easier time pulling it of.

That is a fair point, and one that occurred to me as well.

I just don't see that outweighing the rather divergent goals/culture/interests of the differing regimes.

Possible, but only remotely. Just my opinion.

Perhaps much farther in the future, I could see it happening. I think that such regional blocs are inevitable.

RandomGuy
10-21-2010, 09:44 AM
Official core inflation for the US is only 1.14%, but that excludes such crucial day-to-day goods such as food and energy. Real inflation certainly is higher, maybe much higher. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics calculates true inflation at a whopping 8.48%! But manipulated inflation statistics give the government cover when they again deny seniors a cost of living increase in their social security checks.



http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

If you laid all economists out end to end, they couldn't reach a consensus. -George Bernard Shaw

Is there anyone who doubts that if "John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics" had calculated actual inflation as being lower, that fact would have been deliberately left out of an "Infowars.com" article?

Such information would not fit their "hyperinflation is around the corner" narrative. In this, they are as stilted towards their own narrative as Fox is towards *its*.

If one were to look at the above link, one might notice that (gasp) for at least four months out of this year, overall energy fell by quite a substantial margin, month-on-month.


Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. ended
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Sep.
2010


Energy.................... .0 -1.4 -2.9 -2.9 2.6 2.3 .7 3.8
Energy commodities....... -1.0 -2.1 -4.8 -4.1 4.0 3.8 1.8 5.8


This is the reason that energy is generally left out, it is simply too volatile.

Another reason is that energy prices make their way into everything eventually. You can still get the effects of energy prices, because that gets incorporated into the costs for everything else as part of the production process.

This is not a plot to "make seniors poorer".

This is simply a reasonable set of commonly-agreed on conventions.

If one were to lump energy in, and let that really drive the process, then we would have to cut payments, when the price of energy dips wildly, even if everything else doesn't.

I find the general exclusion of energy prices to be something of a fair trade off.

Parker2112
10-21-2010, 11:02 AM
The reason the Euro union is threatened is because they are democracies and it's not politically popular to stay within the deficit constraints of membership in the European Union. With power much more centralized/authoritarian in the middle eastern nations they might actually have an easier time pulling it of.


I think we may eventually see a common middle eastern currency (similar to the euro where they keep their own, too) that will possibly be backed by oil and precious metals. That will be the benchmark currency that others float against and oil will be priced in.


BTW, China is very subtly flexing its muscles in the upcoming currency/trade war.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11584229

They are making their play to be the worlds "green energy" Walmart.

:toast

RandomGuy
10-21-2010, 11:14 AM
BTW, China is very subtly flexing its muscles in the upcoming currency/trade war.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11584229

They are making their play to be the worlds "green energy" Walmart.


Mines are being developed in the US and Australia, which Mr Lifton says should reassure the world of business. Molycorp, owners of the Mountain Pass mine in California, aim to produce one sixth of global supply by 2012.

"Both mines are very large and can supply the world indefinitely," Mr Lifton says.

"This crisis is literally on a countdown clock. At one point the Chinese won't have leverage, as others come into production."

They are shooting themselves in the foot. The higher prices are causing people to pour money into alternatives.

Their perogative, I guess.

CosmicCowboy
10-21-2010, 12:03 PM
They are shooting themselves in the foot. The higher prices are causing people to pour money into alternatives.

Their perogative, I guess.

So everyone else in the world is using the "new" more expensive rare earth components in their stuff, and china is using their cheaply produced ones...Sounds like China is still pretty competitive to me...

Wild Cobra
10-21-2010, 07:11 PM
You know, I like Ron Paul except for his military stances. I think he would be great for the economy. However, I get the sense he is running too far with his notions here.

cheguevara
10-21-2010, 07:19 PM
NOt only currency wars. Tax or trade wars already underway. USA vs. China is already playing out. USA raised taxes on solar panels or some shit like that after China raised taxes on some other shit, due to USA raising taxes on some chinese product in retort to China investigating Ford, etc, etc, etc.

RandomGuy
10-22-2010, 08:41 AM
So everyone else in the world is using the "new" more expensive rare earth components in their stuff, and china is using their cheaply produced ones...Sounds like China is still pretty competitive to me...

If China is running down its stocks that means it is on a curve to do the same thing with rare earths that it had to do with oil.

China used to export oil. Now it is the #2 consumer of oil and imports most of its oil.

Sure they will get to be a bit more competitive temporarily, but in the long run they will be subject to the same global market as everybody else, and there is some reason to believe the "long run" is not too far off.