SI 1/6 scouts predict Spurs to win title

[Rummpd]

Interesting read (by Ian Thomsen of SI) - majority of scouts have Spurs in top four in WC and some see them at least in the WCF and one boldly predicts Spurs to Win!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/ian_thomsen/10/21/scouts.picks.nba.season/index.html


Scouts' forecast for 2010-11 season Story Highlights
A panel of six advance and personnel scouts voted on the final league standings
The Heat and Lakers received the most votes to finish atop their conferences
Three scouts picked the Lakers to win their third straight title, against the Heat


Once again I've empaneled a half-dozen NBA advance and personnel scouts to predict the standings and champion for the 2010-11 season. These are the same league experts who have broken down all 30 teams in exhaustive detail for our annual scouting reports in this week's magazine, with their full reports to be posted on SI.com Friday.

Let's start with their view of the regular-season race in the East. Miami will run away with the No. 1 seed in conference, according to votes cast in our recent survey (the average rating by the six voters is in parentheses).

Final East Standings
1. Miami Heat (1.0)
2. Orlando Magic (2.2)
3. Boston Celtics (3.0)
4. Chicago Bulls (4.7)
T5. Atlanta Hawks (5.2)
T5. Milwaukee Bucks (5.2)
7. Charlotte Bobcats (8.3)
T8. Philadelphia 76ers (8.7)
T8. Washington Wizards (8.7)
10. New York Knicks (9.5)
11. Indiana Pacers (12.0)
12. Detroit Pistons (12.2)
13. New Jersey Nets (12.3)
14. Cleveland Cavaliers (13.5)
15. Toronto Raptors (13.7)

The Heat were the only team in the league to receive a unanimous vote from the scouts (though you'll see below that there was little agreement on Miami's ultimate outcome). Chicago leapfrogged Atlanta and Milwaukee while jumping from No. 8 last year to a forecast of No. 4 this season, while the Wizards and 76ers -- under new coach Doug Collins -- are picked to tie for the final playoff spot. "I think Doug will get Elton back on board," said one scout.

The most difficult team to gauge is the Wizards, who received four votes to reach the playoffs -- one scout rates them No. 6 in the East while two others place them at No. 12.

Final West Standings
1. Los Angeles Lakers (1.2)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (2.8)
3. Dallas Mavericks (3.7)
4. San Antonio Spurs (4.3)
T5. Utah Jazz (5.3)
T5. Portland Trail Blazers (5.3)
7. Phoenix Suns (7.2)
8. Houston Rockets (7.7)
9. Denver Nuggets (8.2)
10. Memphis Grizzlies (10.3)
T11. Los Angeles Clippers (11.5)
T11. New Orleans Hornets (11.7)
T13. Golden State Warriors (13.0)
T13. Sacramento Kings (13.0)
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (14.8)

The Lakers receive four votes to finish No. 1, with one outlier believing the Thunder will be superior over the 82 games. "I'll be surprised if Oklahoma City doesn't have the most wins," he said. "[Emerging second-year big man Serge] Ibaka is going to make the difference for them, but then the Lakers are going to beat them in the playoffs."

There is little agreement over the rest of this unsettled conference. One scout foresees the Thunder as no better than a No. 5 seed. Five teams received picks to finish No. 2 -- the Thunder (two such votes), Lakers, Mavericks, Spurs and Suns -- with Phoenix also receiving a vote to finish as low as No. 10.

Questions over Carmelo Anthony's status contribute to the uncertainty. "I'm assuming Denver will move Carmelo, which is why I'm dropping Denver down in the standings," said one scout, a belief repeated by two of his colleagues.

Conformity exists at the bottom of the conference, where all agree the bottom five teams -- including the Hornets and Clippers -- won't make the playoffs. "The only thing I can say for certain is Minnesota will be last," said a panelist.

Conference Finals
Here are all of the predictions for the Western finals:

Lakers over Oklahoma City
Lakers over Oklahoma City
Lakers over Dallas
Lakers over Dallas
Lakers over San Antonio
San Antonio over Lakers

Everyone thinks L.A. will reach the NBA's Final Four, and one voter alone believes they won't advance, thanks to the rejuvenation of the Spurs by Tiago Splitter.

The Heat are almost as solid in the East. Every voter likes Miami to reach the conference finals in what is viewed as a three-team race.

Miami over Boston
Miami over Boston
Miami over Boston
Miami over Orlando
Boston over Miami
Orlando over Miami

NBA Finals
Lakers over Miami
Lakers over Miami
Lakers over Miami
Miami over Lakers
Boston over Lakers
San Antonio over Orlando

The experts think five teams have a chance to play in June and four can win the championship. The Lakers are favorites but they're not a dominant pick, based on their tenuous win in Game 7 last year and the health concerns of Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum.

And yet, as much as Miami has established the agenda for this season, most of the experts believe the hype will backfire on the Heat while serving to inspire Kobe. "This whole thing could light a fire under Bryant," said one scout, "because he's still that good and he's going to realize he doesn't have too much time left."

[B]The most surprising pick has Tim Duncan's Spurs beating Dwight Howard's Magic. "It will be the story of the great center bowing out," the scout said of Duncan, who hates to be viewed as a center, "against the young great center."





Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/ian_thomsen/10/21/scouts.picks.nba.season/index.html#ixzz130knVQpT

[Mr. Body]

That one guy is a lunatic.

[Solid D]

Here is last year's SI Scouts' Predictions. 2 picked the Lakers, 2 for Boston, 1 for Cleveland and 1 for San Antonio (thinking Richard Jefferson would help and Artest in a major market would mess up the Lakers' stuff). We all know how that worked out. However, Boston's loss of Perkins really helped turn things in the Lakers favor during the Finals.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/ian_thomsen/10/19/scouts.picks/index.html

[DesignatedT]

We have just a big of a chance as anyone else in the west.

[Solid D]

No way the Spurs win, unless Pop works a defensive miracle.

[DesignatedT]

No way the Spurs win, unless Pop works a defensive miracle.

I'll definitely agree that the Lakers are a step above but unless your already crowning them western conference champions we definitely have just as much of a shot than any other team in the west of dethroning them. Last year we did still finish top 5 in the west in opponents ppg and 5th in opponents fg %. It's not like our defense is all of a sudden terrible and it is anticipated to be better this year. Injuries and lack of stability in our lineups was the main factor in our inability to make a splash last season and the reasons some of our defensive numbers were down IMO. I do agree that our defense needs to perform better but it is still on par if not better than any of the other teams in the west trying to dethrone the lakers.

[Cheese]

aquis vamos spurs!!

[alchemist]

chances aren't great to win it all, at the end of the day I just want great basketball.

[ohmwrecker]

I would be more impressed by the boldness of this dude's prediction had he not picked the Magic to come out of the east
.
My personal preference would be a Spurs vs Celtics finals. A last hurrah for this generation's two greatest PFs. Also, Duncan putting the final nail in Shaq's coffin would be pretty sweet.

[nkdlunch]

I would be more impressed by the boldness of this dude's prediction had he not picked the Magic to come out of the east
.

why not? Lebron gives up again, Boston breaks down again. 2 very possible scenarios.

[ohmwrecker]

why not? Lebron gives up again, Boston breaks down again. 2 very possible scenarios.

I am just not as sold on the Magic as everyone else seems to be. Boston and Miami have proven championship caliber players. The Magic have a one-dimensional star player and the rest of the roster is made up of notorious playoff under-achievers. The year they made the finals was through a pretty weak field in the east and they got exposed by the Lakers. I do place them at a solid third though.

[Obstructed_View]

Unlike in previous years, I don't think being healthy and playing good basketball at playoff time is enough.

[Interrohater]

Unlike in previous years, I don't think being healthy and playing good basketball at playoff time is enough.

I'm wondering if your optimism has been diminished because of the last couple season's performances. Two years ago we had a relatively weak team with a lot of older guys that just couldn't go any further. Last year we had a lot of injuries, disrupting our normal sprint to the post season, it being more of a hobble, in addition to having two heavy-minutes contributors being utter failures.

I think there are reasons to be a lot more optimistic this year than the last couple. If nothing else, it's a new season and anything can happen.

[z0sa]

Unlike in previous years, I don't think being healthy and playing good basketball at playoff time is enough.

If we can actually pull off the bold, I like our chances just fine.

[Muser]

Spurs probably won't win, but as long as Timmy is playing i'll have hope.

[Obstructed_View]

I'm wondering if your optimism has been diminished because of the last couple season's performances. Two years ago we had a relatively weak team with a lot of older guys that just couldn't go any further. Last year we had a lot of injuries, disrupting our normal sprint to the post season, it being more of a hobble, in addition to having two heavy-minutes contributors being utter failures.

I think there are reasons to be a lot more optimistic this year than the last couple. If nothing else, it's a new season and anything can happen.

My optimism has been diminished by the lack of focus on defense, the focus on jacking up long shots, the shocking lack of depth coupled with the typical lack of size, and commitments to guys like Bonner and Jefferson who don't contribute or end up being played way out of position. I was optimistic a few years ago because the Spurs drafted and signed a few guys with some defensive potential. Hill and Dice are the only ones left, Hill's defense is just not that good so far, and Dice isn't getting any younger.

Again, if Blair or Splitter (or both) could start providing some interior defense alongside Timmy the defense suddenly has a chance to right itself, despite all the other warts. Parker was flirting with elite player status a few seasons ago, and this is the first time we've seen him healthy since then. There are some bright spots, but things are gonna have to line up just right.

[lefty]

http://i49.tinypic.com/9ao5ts.gif

[Man In Black]

The Lakers are favorites but they're not a dominant pick, based on their tenuous win in Game 7 last year and the health concerns of Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum.

This is what LAL Bandwagon refuses to acknowledge.

[Obstructed_View]

The Lakers may not be as dominant as the Kobebase would like people to believe, but they are part of a top tier of teams that the Spurs can't join without a little serendipity.

[Man In Black]

The Lakers may not be as dominant as the Kobebase would like people to believe, but they are part of a top tier of teams that the Spurs can't join without a little serendipity.
Seemingly that is the case. But I'm cool with the big 3 being completely healthy. RJ getting better acclimated and Blair starting instead of Bonner or McDyess.
It's Hill and the new guys like Splitter and Anderson that have to step up to help keep the aforementioned big 3 rested.

[Stand]

Timmy and Manu both showed that they could both still play at a very high level during certain points of last season. With Tony playing back to form, and our young guys helping to carry some of the regular season load, I really like our chances.

[crc21209]

BOLD prediction indeed, but after the Lakers in the West, it is totally wide open....you never know.

[rayray2k8]

If you think the Spurs are gonna beat the Lakers because certain players have declined, you might want to double check the spurs roster as well...

I'm hopeful as well, but the spurs still have too many holes to fill in order to beat the Lakers.