tlongII
10-26-2010, 09:26 AM
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1219
West Playoffs Win% W L Play Con NBA ORating DRating
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Portland .670 55.0 27.0 .995 .354 .175 114.0 (1) 107.7 (4)
Denver .601 49.3 32.7 .950 .135 .053 113.8 (2) 110.3 (17)
San Antonio .598 49.0 33.0 .938 .132 .054 113.2 (6) 109.5 (15)
Golden State .589 48.3 33.7 .897 .086 .031 112.3 (9) 109.1 (12)
Oklahoma City .588 48.2 33.8 .921 .093 .033 110.0 (18) 106.8 (2)
Dallas .575 47.2 34.8 .866 .078 .025 110.7 (12) 107.8 (6)
New Orleans .571 46.8 35.2 .813 .068 .024 113.8 (3) 111.0 (21)
L.A. Lakers .551 45.2 36.8 .687 .034 .011 110.2 (16) 108.2 (8)
It is safe to say these are the only projections you will read that feature Portland-Denver-San Antonio-Golden State as the top four in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are perhaps the most difficult team to project. Even after accounting for a more pessimistic assessment of Kenyon Martin's timeline for returning from knee surgery, Denver looks like a contender in the Western Conference (that's a group that goes at least eight deep). However, plenty of experts have the Nuggets finishing out of the playoffs. If Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups are both traded for young players, that is perfectly reasonable. So we really need two Denver projections--one for calling Anthony's bluff and another for blowing things up.
West Lottery Win% W L Play Con NBA ORating DRating
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sacramento .521 42.7 39.3 .468 .013 .004 112.4 (8) 111.4 (23)
Utah .490 40.2 41.8 .234 .004 .000 109.5 (20) 109.4 (13)
Memphis .470 38.6 43.4 .141 .002 .000 110.5 (14) 111.3 (22)
Phoenix .443 36.3 45.7 .049 .001 .000 110.8 (11) 112.3 (28)
Houston .437 35.8 46.2 .040 .000 .000 109.9 (19) 111.7 (25)
Minnesota .363 29.8 52.2 .001 .000 .000 107.6 (23) 111.7 (24)
L.A. Clippers .325 26.6 55.4 .000 .000 .000 106.1 (26) 111.9 (26)
The top-to-bottom superiority of the Western Conference is one of SCHOENE's more interesting projections. The East had two of the top three picks and made more noise in free agency, yet the projections indicate that it is the West that improved over the summer. Sacramento and Utah would both be playoff teams in the Eastern Conference by these projections.
It is worth noting, as we consider the value of preseason performance, that Memphis and Utah joined Orlando as the NBA's lone unbeaten teams during the exhibition season.
West Playoffs Win% W L Play Con NBA ORating DRating
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Portland .670 55.0 27.0 .995 .354 .175 114.0 (1) 107.7 (4)
Denver .601 49.3 32.7 .950 .135 .053 113.8 (2) 110.3 (17)
San Antonio .598 49.0 33.0 .938 .132 .054 113.2 (6) 109.5 (15)
Golden State .589 48.3 33.7 .897 .086 .031 112.3 (9) 109.1 (12)
Oklahoma City .588 48.2 33.8 .921 .093 .033 110.0 (18) 106.8 (2)
Dallas .575 47.2 34.8 .866 .078 .025 110.7 (12) 107.8 (6)
New Orleans .571 46.8 35.2 .813 .068 .024 113.8 (3) 111.0 (21)
L.A. Lakers .551 45.2 36.8 .687 .034 .011 110.2 (16) 108.2 (8)
It is safe to say these are the only projections you will read that feature Portland-Denver-San Antonio-Golden State as the top four in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are perhaps the most difficult team to project. Even after accounting for a more pessimistic assessment of Kenyon Martin's timeline for returning from knee surgery, Denver looks like a contender in the Western Conference (that's a group that goes at least eight deep). However, plenty of experts have the Nuggets finishing out of the playoffs. If Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups are both traded for young players, that is perfectly reasonable. So we really need two Denver projections--one for calling Anthony's bluff and another for blowing things up.
West Lottery Win% W L Play Con NBA ORating DRating
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sacramento .521 42.7 39.3 .468 .013 .004 112.4 (8) 111.4 (23)
Utah .490 40.2 41.8 .234 .004 .000 109.5 (20) 109.4 (13)
Memphis .470 38.6 43.4 .141 .002 .000 110.5 (14) 111.3 (22)
Phoenix .443 36.3 45.7 .049 .001 .000 110.8 (11) 112.3 (28)
Houston .437 35.8 46.2 .040 .000 .000 109.9 (19) 111.7 (25)
Minnesota .363 29.8 52.2 .001 .000 .000 107.6 (23) 111.7 (24)
L.A. Clippers .325 26.6 55.4 .000 .000 .000 106.1 (26) 111.9 (26)
The top-to-bottom superiority of the Western Conference is one of SCHOENE's more interesting projections. The East had two of the top three picks and made more noise in free agency, yet the projections indicate that it is the West that improved over the summer. Sacramento and Utah would both be playoff teams in the Eastern Conference by these projections.
It is worth noting, as we consider the value of preseason performance, that Memphis and Utah joined Orlando as the NBA's lone unbeaten teams during the exhibition season.