Signs Hyperinflation Is Arriving

[Parker2112]

Back in late August, I argued that hyperinflation (http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08/how-hyperinflation-will-happen.html) would be triggered by a run on Treasury bonds. I described how such a run might happen, and argued that if Treasuries were no longer considered safe, then commodities would become the store of value.

Such a run on commodities, I further argued, would inevitably lead to price increases and a rise in the Consumer Price Index, which would initially be interpreted by the Federal Reserve, the Federal government, as well as the commentariat, as a good thing: A sign that “the economy is recovering”, a sign that “normalcy” was returning.



I argued that—far from being “a sign of recovery”—rising CPI would be the sign that things were about to get ugly.

I concluded that, like the stagflation of ‘79 (http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/09/was-stagflation-in-79-really.html), inflation would rise to the double digits relatively quickly. However, unlike in 1980, when Paul Volcker raised interest rates severely in order to halt inflation, in today’s weakened macro-economic environment, that remedy is simply not available to Ben Bernanke.

Therefore, I predicted that inflation would spiral out of control, and turn into hyperinflation of the U.S. dollar.

A lot of people claimed I was on drugs when I wrote this.

Now? Not so much.

In my initial argument, I was sure that there would come a moment when Treasury bond holders would realize that they are the New & Improved Toxic Asset (http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08/termite-riddled-house-treasury-bonds.html)—as everyone knows, there is no way the U.S. Federal government can pay the outstanding debt it has: It’s simply too big.

So I assumed that, when the market collectively realized this, there would be a panic in Treasuries. This panic, of course, would lead to the spike in commodities.

However, I am no longer certain if there will ever be such a panic in Treasuries. Backstop Benny has been so adroit at propping up Treasuries and keeping their yields low, the Stealth Monetization (http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/09/stealth-monetization-in-usa.html) has been so effective, the TBTF banks’ arbitrage trade between the Fed’s liquidity windows and Treasury bond yields has been so lucrative, and the bond market itself is so aware that Bernanke will do anything to protect and backstop Treasuries, that I no longer think that there will necessarily be such a panic.

But that doesn’t mean that the second part of my thesis—commodities rising, which will trigger inflation, which will devolve into hyperinflation—will not occur.

In fact, it is occurring.

The two key commodities that have been rising as of late are oil and grains, specifically wheat, corn and livestock feed. The BLS report on Producer Price Index of commodities is here (http://www.bls.gov/ppi/ppitable06.pdf).

Grains as a class have risen over 33% year-over-year. Refined oil products have risen just shy of 13%, with home heating oil rising 18% year-over-year. In other words: Food, gasoline and heating oil have risen by double digits since 2009. And the 2010-‘11 winter in the northern hemisphere is approaching.

A friend of mine, SB, a commodities trader, pointed out to me that big producers are hedged against rising commodities prices. As he put it to me in a private e-mail, “We sometimes forget that the commodity markets aren’t solely speculative. Most futures contracts are bought by companies who use those commodities in their products, and are thus hedging their costs to produce those products.”

Very true: But SB also pointed out that, hedged or not, the lag time between agricultural commodities and the markets is about six-to-nine months, on average. So he thought that the rise in grains, which really took off in June–July, would hit the supermarket shelves in January–March.

He also pointed out that, with higher commodity costs and lower consumption, companies are going to be between the Devil and the deep blue sea. My own take is, if you can’t get more customers, then you’re just gonna have to charge more from the ones you got.

Coupled to these price increases is the ongoing Currency War: The U.S.—contrary to Secretary Timothy Geithner’s statements—is trying to debase the dollar, so as to make U.S. exports more attractive to foreign consumers. This has created strains with China, Europe and the emerging markets.

A beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy works for small countries getting out of a hole of their own making: It doesn’t work for the world’s largest single economy with the world’s reserve currency, in the middle of a Global Depression.

On the contrary, it creates a backlash; the ongoing tiff over rare-earth minerals with China is just the beginning. This could easily be exacerbated by clumsy politicking, and turn into a full-on trade war.

What’s so bad with a trade war, you ask? Why nothing, not a thing—if you want to pay through the nose for imported goods. If you enjoy paying 10, 20, 30% more for imported goods—then hey, let’s just stick it to them China-men! They’re still Commies, after all!

Furthermore, as regards the Federal Reserve policy, the upcoming Quantitative Easing 2, and the actions of its chairman, Ben Bernanke: There is an increasing sense in the financial markets that Backstop Benny and his Lollipop Gang don’t have the foggiest clue about what they’re doing.

Consider:

Bruce Krasting just yesterday wrote a very on-the-money précis (http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2010/10/bernanke-tap-lightly.html) of the trial balloons the Fed is floating, as regards to QE2: Basically, Bernanke through his WSJ mouthpiece said that the Fed was going to go for a cautious, incrementalist approach, vis-à-vis QE2: “A couple of hundred billion at a time”. You know: “Just the tip—just to see how it feels.”

But then on the other hand, also just yesterday, Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge had a justifiable freak-out (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paralyzed-fed-defers-decision-monetary-policy-primary-dealers) over the NY Fed asking Primary Dealers for their thoughts on the size of QE2. According to Bloomberg, the NY Fed was asking the dealers how big they thought QE2 would be, and how big they thought it ought be: $250 billion? $500 billion? A trillion? A trillion every six months? (Or as Tyler pointed out, $2 trillion for 2011.)

That’s like asking a bunch of junkies how much smack they want for the upcoming year—half a kilo? A full kilo? Two kilos?

What the hell you think the junkies are gonna say?

Between BK’s clear reading of the tea leaves coming from the Wall Street Journal, and TD’s also very clear reading of the tea leaves by way of Bloomberg, you’re getting a seriously contradictory message: The Fed is going to lightly tap-tap-tap liquidity into the markets—just a little—just a few hundred billion dollars at a time—

—while at the same time, the Fed is saying to the Primary Dealers, “We’re gonna make you guys happy-happy-happy with a righteously sized QE2!”

The contradictory messages don’t pacify the financial markets—on the contrary, they make the markets simultaneously contemptuous of Bernanke and the Fed, while very frightened as to what they will ultimately do.

What happens when the financial markets don’t really know what the central bank is going to do, and suspect that the central bankers themselves aren’t too clear either?

Guess.

So to sum up, we have:

• Rising commodity prices, the effects of which (because of hedging) will be felt most severely in the period January–March of 2011.
• A beggar-thy-neighbor race-to-the-bottom Currency War, that might well devolve into a Trade War, which would force up prices on imported goods.
• A Federal Reserve that does not seem to know what it is doing, as regards another round of Quantitative Easing, which is making the financial markets very nervous—nervous about the Fed’s ultimate responsibility, which is safeguarding the U.S. dollar.
• A U.S. economy that is weak to the point of collapse, where not even 0.25% interest rates are sparking investment and growth—and which therefore prohibits the Fed from raising interest rates, if need be.
• A U.S. fiscal deficit which is close to 10% of GDP annually, and which is therefore unsustainable—especially considering that the total U.S. fiscal debt is well over 100% of GDP. These factors all point to one and the same thing:

An imminent currency collapse.

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:

• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.

What the mainstream commentariat will make of all this will be really something: When CPI reaches 5% by the winter of 2011, pundits and economists and the Fed and the Obama administration will all say the same thing: “Happy days are here again! People are spending! The economy is back on track!”

However, by the late spring, early summer of 2011, people will realize what’s going on—and the Federal Reserve will initially be unwilling to drastically raise interest rates so as to quell inflation.

Actually, the Fed won’t be able to raise rates, at least not like Volcker did back in 1980: The U.S. economy will be too weak, and the Federal government’s balance sheet will be too distressed, with it’s $1.5 trillion deficit. So at first, the Fed will have to let the rising inflation rate slide, and keep trying hard to explain it away as “a sign of a recovering economy”.

Once the Fed realizes that the rising CPI is not a sign of a reignited economy, but rather a sign of the collapsing dollar, they will pursue a puerile “inflation fighting” scheme of incremental interest rate hikes—much like G. William Miller, the Chairman of the Fed from January of ‘78 to August of ‘79, pursued so unsuccessfully.

2012 will be the bad year: I predict that hyperinflation’s tipping point will be no later than the first quarter of 2012. From there, it will accelerate. By the end of 2012, I would not be surprised if the CPI for the year averaged 30%.

By that point, the rest of the economy—unemployment, GDP, all the rest of it—will be in the toilet. By that point, the rest of the economy will no longer matter: The collapsing dollar will make 2012 the really really bad year of our Global Depression—which is actually kind of funny.

It’s funny because, as you know, I am a conservative Catholic: I of course put absolutely no stock in the ridiculous notion that “The Mayans predicted our civilization’s collapse in 2012!”—that’s all rubbish, as far as I’m concerned.

It’s just one of those cosmic jokes that 2012 will turn out to be the year the dollar collapses, and the larger world economies go down the tubes.

As cosmic jokes go, all I’ve got to say is this:

Good one, God.


http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/signs-hyperinflation-is-arriving.html

[Cant_Be_Faded]

We will have hyperstagflation not hyperinflation.

[DMX7]

Yawn... More "predictions"...

[Nbadan]

Commodities usually rise during periods of slow or no growth as people look for larger annual years than safer bonds and stocks or treasuries offer, but at greater risk...I am enjoying this period of slow growth....relatively low gas prices, low grocery prices, low heating prices...compare that to a over-heated economy, inflation, higher-gas and heating/cooling prices.....if you have a safe job you don't know how good you really have it right now because you've fallen for the eventual downturn just around the next corner...

[RandomGuy]

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/signs-hyperinflation-is-arriving.html

It seems you concur with this gentleman's hypothesis.

Is this correct?

[RandomGuy]

Yawn... More "predictions"...

These thread rock.

Jackwagons like Mr. Lira make solid predictions that they can't take back in 3 years.

Subscribed to this thread too.

[RandomGuy]

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/signs-hyperinflation-is-arriving.html


Back in late August, I argued that hyperinflation would be triggered by a run on Treasury bonds. I described how such a run might happen, and argued that if Treasuries were no longer considered safe, then commodities would become the store of value.

Such a run on commodities, I further argued, would inevitably lead to price increases and a rise in the Consumer Price Index, which would initially be interpreted by the Federal Reserve, the Federal government, as well as the commentariat, as a good thing: A sign that “the economy is recovering”, a sign that “normalcy” was returning.

I argued that—far from being “a sign of recovery”—rising CPI would be the sign that things were about to get ugly.

I concluded that, like the stagflation of ‘79, inflation would rise to the double digits relatively quickly. However, unlike in 1980, when Paul Volcker raised interest rates severely in order to halt inflation, in today’s weakened macro-economic environment, that remedy is simply not available to Ben Bernanke.

Therefore, I predicted that inflation would spiral out of control, and turn into hyperinflation of the U.S. dollar.

A lot of people claimed I was on drugs when I wrote this.

Now? Not so much.

In my initial argument, I was sure that there would come a moment when Treasury bond holders would realize that they are the New & Improved Toxic Asset—as everyone knows, there is no way the U.S. Federal government can pay the outstanding debt it has: It’s simply too big.

So I assumed that, when the market collectively realized this, there would be a panic in Treasuries. This panic, of course, would lead to the spike in commodities.

However, I am no longer certain if there will ever be such a panic in Treasuries. Backstop Benny has been so adroit at propping up Treasuries and keeping their yields low, the Stealth Monetization has been so effective, the TBTF banks’ arbitrage trade between the Fed’s liquidity windows and Treasury bond yields has been so lucrative, and the bond market itself is so aware that Bernanke will do anything to protect and backstop Treasuries, that I no longer think that there will necessarily be such a panic.

But that doesn’t mean that the second part of my thesis—commodities rising, which will trigger inflation, which will devolve into hyperinflation—will not occur.

In fact, it is occurring.

The two key commodities that have been rising as of late are oil and grains, specifically wheat, corn and livestock feed. The BLS report on Producer Price Index of commodities is here.

Grains as a class have risen over 33% year-over-year. Refined oil products have risen just shy of 13%, with home heating oil rising 18% year-over-year. In other words: Food, gasoline and heating oil have risen by double digits since 2009. And the 2010-‘11 winter in the northern hemisphere is approaching.

A friend of mine, SB, a commodities trader, pointed out to me that big producers are hedged against rising commodities prices. As he put it to me in a private e-mail, “We sometimes forget that the commodity markets aren’t solely speculative. Most futures contracts are bought by companies who use those commodities in their products, and are thus hedging their costs to produce those products.”

Very true: But SB also pointed out that, hedged or not, the lag time between agricultural commodities and the markets is about six-to-nine months, on average. So he thought that the rise in grains, which really took off in June–July, would hit the supermarket shelves in January–March.

He also pointed out that, with higher commodity costs and lower consumption, companies are going to be between the Devil and the deep blue sea. My own take is, if you can’t get more customers, then you’re just gonna have to charge more from the ones you got.

Coupled to these price increases is the ongoing Currency War: The U.S.—contrary to Secretary Timothy Geithner’s statements—is trying to debase the dollar, so as to make U.S. exports more attractive to foreign consumers. This has created strains with China, Europe and the emerging markets.

A beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy works for small countries getting out of a hole of their own making: It doesn’t work for the world’s largest single economy with the world’s reserve currency, in the middle of a Global Depression.

On the contrary, it creates a backlash; the ongoing tiff over rare-earth minerals with China is just the beginning. This could easily be exacerbated by clumsy politicking, and turn into a full-on trade war.

What’s so bad with a trade war, you ask? Why nothing, not a thing—if you want to pay through the nose for imported goods. If you enjoy paying 10, 20, 30% more for imported goods—then hey, let’s just stick it to them China-men! They’re still Commies, after all!

Furthermore, as regards the Federal Reserve policy, the upcoming Quantitative Easing 2, and the actions of its chairman, Ben Bernanke: There is an increasing sense in the financial markets that Backstop Benny and his Lollipop Gang don’t have the foggiest clue about what they’re doing.

Consider:

Bruce Krasting just yesterday wrote a very on-the-money précis of the trial balloons the Fed is floating, as regards to QE2: Basically, Bernanke through his WSJ mouthpiece said that the Fed was going to go for a cautious, incrementalist approach, vis-à-vis QE2: “A couple of hundred billion at a time”. You know: “Just the tip—just to see how it feels.”

But then on the other hand, also just yesterday, Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge had a justifiable freak-out over the NY Fed asking Primary Dealers for their thoughts on the size of QE2. According to Bloomberg, the NY Fed was asking the dealers how big they thought QE2 would be, and how big they thought it ought be: $250 billion? $500 billion? A trillion? A trillion every six months? (Or as Tyler pointed out, $2 trillion for 2011.)

That’s like asking a bunch of junkies how much smack they want for the upcoming year—half a kilo? A full kilo? Two kilos?

What the hell you think the junkies are gonna say?

Between BK’s clear reading of the tea leaves coming from the Wall Street Journal, and TD’s also very clear reading of the tea leaves by way of Bloomberg, you’re getting a seriously contradictory message: The Fed is going to lightly tap-tap-tap liquidity into the markets—just a little—just a few hundred billion dollars at a time—

—while at the same time, the Fed is saying to the Primary Dealers, “We’re gonna make you guys happy-happy-happy with a righteously sized QE2!”

The contradictory messages don’t pacify the financial markets—on the contrary, they make the markets simultaneously contemptuous of Bernanke and the Fed, while very frightened as to what they will ultimately do.

What happens when the financial markets don’t really know what the central bank is going to do, and suspect that the central bankers themselves aren’t too clear either?

Guess.

So to sum up, we have:
• Rising commodity prices, the effects of which (because of hedging) will be felt most severely in the period January–March of 2011.
• A beggar-thy-neighbor race-to-the-bottom Currency War, that might well devolve into a Trade War, which would force up prices on imported goods.
• A Federal Reserve that does not seem to know what it is doing, as regards another round of Quantitative Easing, which is making the financial markets very nervous—nervous about the Fed’s ultimate responsibility, which is safeguarding the U.S. dollar.
• A U.S. economy that is weak to the point of collapse, where not even 0.25% interest rates are sparking investment and growth—and which therefore prohibits the Fed from raising interest rates, if need be.
• A U.S. fiscal deficit which is close to 10% of GDP annually, and which is therefore unsustainable—especially considering that the total U.S. fiscal debt is well over 100% of GDP.
These factors all point to one and the same thing:

An imminent currency collapse.

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:
• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.

What the mainstream commentariat will make of all this will be really something: When CPI reaches 5% by the winter of 2011, pundits and economists and the Fed and the Obama administration will all say the same thing: “Happy days are here again! People are spending! The economy is back on track!”

However, by the late spring, early summer of 2011, people will realize what’s going on—and the Federal Reserve will initially be unwilling to drastically raise interest rates so as to quell inflation.

Actually, the Fed won’t be able to raise rates, at least not like Volcker did back in 1980: The U.S. economy will be too weak, and the Federal government’s balance sheet will be too distressed, with it’s $1.5 trillion deficit. So at first, the Fed will have to let the rising inflation rate slide, and keep trying hard to explain it away as “a sign of a recovering economy”.

Once the Fed realizes that the rising CPI is not a sign of a reignited economy, but rather a sign of the collapsing dollar, they will pursue a puerile “inflation fighting” scheme of incremental interest rate hikes—much like G. William Miller, the Chairman of the Fed from January of ‘78 to August of ‘79, pursued so unsuccessfully.

2012 will be the bad year: I predict that hyperinflation’s tipping point will be no later than the first quarter of 2012. From there, it will accelerate. By the end of 2012, I would not be surprised if the CPI for the year averaged 30%.

By that point, the rest of the economy—unemployment, GDP, all the rest of it—will be in the toilet. By that point, the rest of the economy will no longer matter: The collapsing dollar will make 2012 the really really bad year of our Global Depression—which is actually kind of funny.

It’s funny because, as you know, I am a conservative Catholic: I of course put absolutely no stock in the ridiculous notion that “The Mayans predicted our civilization’s collapse in 2012!”—that’s all rubbish, as far as I’m concerned.

It’s just one of those cosmic jokes that 2012 will turn out to be the year the dollar collapses, and the larger world economies go down the tubes.

As cosmic jokes go, all I’ve got to say is this:

Good one, God.


Also an interesting bit on the mechanics:
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08/how-hyperinflation-will-happen.html


Some moron like Palin or Biden might well advocate this idea of helter-skelter money-printing so as to “help all hard-working Americans”. And if they carried it out, this would bring us American-made images of people using bundles of dollars to feed their chimneys. I actually don’t think that politicians are so stupid as to actually start printing money to “fight rising prices”—but hey, when it comes to stupidity, you never know how far they can go.


The thing to do to prepare for hyperinflation would be to invest in a diversified hard-metal basket before the event—no equities, no ETF’s, no derivatives. If and when hyperinflation happens, and things get bad (and I mean really bad), take that hard-metal basket and—right in the teeth of the crisis—buy residential property, as well as equities in long-lasting industries; mining, pharma and chemicals especially, but no value-added companies, like tech, aerospace or industrials. The reason is, at the peak of hyperinflation, the most valuable assets will be dirt-cheap—especially equities—especially real estate.

Honestly, the guy constructs a disturbingly plausible scenario.

It will be interesting to see if he is right. I will guess that we will start seeing gold start edging higher as this idea/scenario gets a bit more "out there" into the collective brain.

Hyper-inflation would kill most existing debt, one way or another. It would be a boon to local governments though. The amount of dollars of taxes would go up, making debt levels really easy to meet.

[RandomGuy]

One thing to bear in mind would be that the Chinese have seriously pegged their currency to that of the US, and would act strongly to keep the value of their assets debased. Wonder how that would play out.

[scott]

Are we talking about REAL hyperinflation (> 50% inflation per month) or some definition invented by non-economists to sell subscriptions to their investment newsletters?

[Parker2112]

These thread rock.

Jackwagons like Mr. Lira make solid predictions that they can't take back in 3 years.

Subscribed to this thread too.

So Mr. Lira is a jackwagon because his economic predictions don't agree with your economic predictions?

What a prick.

[RandomGuy]

Are we talking about REAL hyperinflation (> 50% inflation per month) or some definition invented by non-economists to sell subscriptions to their investment newsletters?

Good question.

Here is a thread I did on one guy who thinks pretty much the opposite.
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=156597

That guy of course has his own little newsletter that tells you how to avoid THAT.

Don't ask Parker2112 to define hyper-inflation, he is just passing it along. It is something that interests him.

[RandomGuy]

So Mr. Lira is a jackwagon because his economic predictions don't agree with your economic predictions?

What a prick.

Nah, he's a jackwagon because he is making solid, time-specific predictions of economic cataclysms.

(shrugs)

Guy could be right, but such predictions tend to have bad track-records. We'll get to find out.

If it turns out not to happen, what will you think about that? You seem to be invested in this theory.

[Parker2112]

Invested in the predicted results, or invested in disclosure of a runaway currency system?

And I would prefer to be wrong. But the time for blind faith in th Fed, without seeing the books even...that time is over. Though you seem to be invested in the status quo, and staying in the dark.

"Egh, we would have to replace the Fed with something, so why not keep it?" as I remember...

That single statement summed up your knowledge on the topic and your blind loyalty to the same corruption that is pillaging the lower and middle class in everything they own.

[angrydude]

Nah, he's a jackwagon because he is making solid, time-specific predictions of economic cataclysms.

(shrugs)

Guy could be right, but such predictions tend to have bad track-records. We'll get to find out.

If it turns out not to happen, what will you think about that? You seem to be invested in this theory.

he'll do the same thing liberals do when you point out the stimulus didn't help the economy.

[RandomGuy]

blind faith in th Fed, without seeing the books even...that time is over. Though you seem to be invested in the status quo, and staying in the dark.


Each week, the Federal Reserve publishes its balance sheet, typically on Thursday afternoon around 4:30 p.m. The balance sheet is included in the Federal Reserve's H.4.1 statistical release, "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks," available on this website. The various tables in the statistical release are described below, an explanation of the important elements in each table is given, and a link to each table in the current release is provided.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_fedsbalancesheet.htm

One can find out enough to be fairly knowledgeable about what the Fed is doing, if one tries.

[RandomGuy]

If [hyperinflation that crosses the "tipping point of 15%" in 2012]turns out not to happen, what will you think about that? You seem to be invested in this theory.



Invested in the predicted results, or invested in disclosure of a runaway currency system?

And I would prefer to be wrong.

Invested in the prediction of "hyperinflation". This is the second or third thread you have started on the topic.

You theory of a "runaway currency system" pretty much seems to predict such hyperinflation, to my understanding.

If such hyperinflation fails to materialize, what then?

What will you make of the "runaway currency system" theory?

Will you rationalize the non-happening of hyper-inflation or discard the "runaway currency system" theory?

[PublicOption]

I just got 3.1% on my car loan.

not bothering me much.

[TeyshaBlue]

I just got 3.1% on my car loan.

not bothering me much.

Score!!!!:toast

[phxspurfan]

I just got 3.1% on my car loan.

not bothering me much.

Did they charge you big fees to refinance? Or did you just purchase the car?

[RandomGuy]

3 month bump.


By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.

3 months to go.

December CPI for all goods was at a rate of 6% annually, if my reading is correct.
.5% for December, driven strongly by energy increases.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

So far so good for his prediction, although the previous two months were much lower rates.

We will get to see if the rises will be sustained.

[boutons_deux]

"Hyper-inflation would kill most existing debt, one way or another."

worked for USA after WWII :)

[RandomGuy]

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:
• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.

two month to go.

Commodity prices have been on the upswing, but corporations have been shedding a lot of costs, and have the ability to absorb higher commodity prices withou passing that on in the form of greater prices.

I guess we will find out.

[boutons_deux]

demand-pull when consumer demand is depressed and effective unemployment at 20%+ ?

capacity restriction price-push? The UCA, for what it still manufactures, has plenty of capacity, and so does China, although China has raised interest rates to attack its inflation.

yes, we will find out. hyper-inflation scare-mongering is right up with with deficit scare-mongering as VRWC bullshit.

[RandomGuy]

demand-pull when consumer demand is depressed and effective unemployment at 20%+ ?

capacity restriction price-push? The UCA, for what it still manufactures, has plenty of capacity, and so does China, although China has raised interest rates to attack its inflation.

yes, we will find out. hyper-inflation scare-mongering is right up with with deficit scare-mongering as VRWC bullshit.

There are some signs that China is bumping up against its available labor supply, oddly enough.

Its massive demand for raw materials of all sorts has also started to run up against global capacity for those raw materials.

Good time to be a mining company.

As for the scaremongering, I am VERY tempted to be right there with my own "me too" newsletter for $500 a pop cashing in on all the suckers who are the target Fox "news" audience. Easy money.

[2centsworth]

One thing to bear in mind would be that the Chinese have seriously pegged their currency to that of the US, and would act strongly to keep the value of their assets debased. Wonder how that would play out.

Chinese are struggling mightily with their own inflation problems. Highly improbably they could debase the Yuan any further. In fact, most experts expect them to float their currency to battle inflationary pressure.

[2centsworth]

demand-pull when consumer demand is depressed and effective unemployment at 20%+ ?

you realize 20% unemployment puts a serious strain on production. This set-ups the too much money chasing too few goods scenario.



capacity restriction price-push? The UCA, for what it still manufactures, has plenty of capacity, and so does China, although China has raised interest rates to attack its inflation.

raising interest rates will not help China. It's a currency problem. As far as capacity, you're right we need to lower unemployment dramatically. However, we disagree in how to accomplish that. I happen to be a fan of profits.



yes, we will find out. hyper-inflation scare-mongering is right up with with deficit scare-mongering as VRWC bullshit.

:rolleyes

[2centsworth]

"Hyper-inflation would kill most existing debt, one way or another."

worked for USA after WWII :)

so which one is it? Gov. wants hyperinflation to solve our problems like you say it did in WWII or hyperinflation is myth?

[2centsworth]

As for the scaremongering, I am VERY tempted to be right there with my own "me too" newsletter for $500 a pop cashing in on all the suckers who are the target Fox "news" audience. Easy money.

All those suckers have made a fortune buying precious metals.

[boutons_deux]

hyperinflation isn't a myth

govt wants hyperinflation? who said that?

The VRWC bogus "deficit hawks" have nothing to say about reducing the deficit by stimulating economic activity and therefore increasing property/sales/income taxes.

Their only solution, in bad faith as always, is to cut govt spending to weaken govt as the only defense against capitalist/corporate predations and destruction.

[Nbadan]

There are some signs that China is bumping up against its available labor supply, oddly enough.

That's not China's real problem...


drought in China might require the world's largest wheat producer to import vast amounts of the grain, forcing the market price to levels never seen before.

...

Not until June will we know the extent of the damage to China's winter wheat crop, virtually all its production. Extremely low rainfall this winter parched more than 5 million hectares of 14 million hectares planted, and the next few weeks' weather will determine if the world faces a real shortage of the staff of life

[2centsworth]

"Hyper-inflation would kill most existing debt, one way or another."

worked for USA after WWII :)

here you're very positive about hyperinflation, no?

[2centsworth]

Their only solution, in bad faith as always, is to cut govt spending to weaken govt as the only defense against capitalist/corporate predations and destruction.

so capitalist and corporations are the bad guys that need to be weakened?

Where will the jobs come from?

[angrydude]

I seriously doubt we're actually going to ever see "hyper-inflation." To me, if the dollar loses even a 20% of its current value in the space of 3 years, that is bad enough.

Ppl don't want to increase taxes to reduce the deficit because in truth the size of the govt deficit doesn't matter to the economy as a whole, except as it relates to the proportion of the govt sector to the rest of the economy. This is because the govt doesn't make shit that it can sell to anyone except guns. Real wealth is measured by the amount of shit you own or can own. A big govt. sector doesn't create more shit, it creates a lot of service labor that nobody can eat or wear and nobody in another country gives a shit about to pay for. When you just increase the amount of your own paper that is going after the same limited number of shit, the economy doesn't improve, you just take the slow road towards poverty.

[RandomGuy]

All those suckers have made a temporary fortune buying precious metals.

Fixed.

Some have indeed.

Feel free to sink your retirement funds into gold, and let me know how that works out in 20 years. :toast

I prefer part ownership in a series of positive cash flows, rather than a fixed immutable asset of questionable worth.

[boutons_deux]

Demand inflation is amenable to policy as Volcker showed in St Ronnie's high inflation of the early 80s. High interest rates are the policy.

Restricted supply inflation is more difficult, esp when the commodities are purchased from overseas.

But even there, tax policy (eg, on all petroleum-based fuel) can cause a switch away from petroleum by designing petroleum out of products and usage. aka, The Era of Cheap Oil Is Over.

There are some Wikileaks cables by an ex Saudi Oil Minister, otherwise taken as Reliable Source, predicting Saudi peak oil arriving 2010-2020.

[2centsworth]

Fixed.

Feel free to sink your retirement funds into gold, and let me know how that works out in 20 years. :toast


it's been phenomenal over the past 10 years. Us suckers tend to buy low and sell high, so we'll look elsewhere. But I'm a sucker, so what do I know? When does your newsletter come out:lol?

[CosmicCowboy]

"Hyper-inflation would kill most existing debt, one way or another."

worked for USA after WWII :)

A really different situation.

Hyperinflation won't fix the US's debt problem. Average age of debt is around 60 months and when that debt has to re-roll at high interest rates along with the new hyper-inflated budget deficits the interest will eat our GDP.

[RandomGuy]

it's been phenomenal over the past 10 years. Us suckers tend to buy low and sell high, so we'll look elsewhere. But I'm a sucker, so what do I know? When does your newsletter come out:lol?

Indeed. If you bought gold at the beginning of the decade, your timing was lucky and you can make money on it, just like any other investment.

Long term gold is a sure loser when compared to any decent stock/bond portfolio.

[CosmicCowboy]

Indeed. If you bought gold at the beginning of the decade, your timing was lucky and you can make money on it, just like any other investment.

Long term gold is a sure loser when compared to any decent stock/bond portfolio.

I've done OK on metals...I've got about 1/2 pound of gold in coins bought in the $380's and also bought several of these (proofs in the boxes with certificates) when they came out for a little under $200.

http://cgi.ebay.com/1991-1-oz-PALLADIUM-25-Rouble-Russian-BALLERINA-Coin-/350438684753?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_2&hash=item5197c5f851#ht_3258wt_905

Obviously there are some stocks I would have done better with in the same time frame...

[2centsworth]

Indeed. If you bought gold at the beginning of the decade, your timing was lucky and you can make money on it, just like any other investment.

Long term gold is a sure loser when compared to any decent stock/bond portfolio.

you're talking about diversifying, yes? If so, you should have 5 to 10 percent in metals.

btw, you know past performance is not indicative of future results.

[RandomGuy]

you're talking about diversifying, yes? If so, you should have 5 to 10 percent in metals.

btw, you know past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yes, actually it is very indicative of future results, especially long term trends. :p:

What past performance is not, is an ironclad guarantee.

I haven't seen any paradigm shift in the way the world works to indicate gold being worth sinking any retirement funds into.

[2centsworth]

Yes, actually it is very indicative of future results, especially long term trends. :p:

What past performance is not, is an ironclad guarantee.

Long-Term trends showed there never being a 10 year period period of time in which the stock market was negative. Over 70 periods to data. What happend the 10 year periods ending '08 and '09? Negative.



I haven't seen any paradigm shift in the way the world works to indicate gold being worth sinking any retirement funds into.Yeah, the world hasn't changed much the past 10 years.:)

[boutons_deux]

Wholesale Prices Rise For 7th Straight Month

Wholesale prices outside of the volatile food and energy categories rose at the fastest pace in more than two years last month, a sign inflation could be rising as the economy strengthens.

The increase comes after months of rising prices for oil, cotton, corn, wheat and other commodities

About 40 percent of the rise in the core index stemmed from higher pharmaceutical prices, which jumped 1.4 percent. That's the largest increase for that category in nearly three years.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/16/wholesale-prices-rise-for_n_824027.html?view=print

==========

BigPharma screwing America again, trying to suck in a few $Bs in the face of many $Bs to be lost in the next two years as their top selling proprietary drugs come off patent.

Nowhere in Barry's or Boner's budget is there any talk of curbing runaway increases in health, only in excluding people who can't pay from getting care.

And nowhere was there any proposal to nullify the dubya/Repug regulation that forbids govt from negotiating as single buyer to BigPharma, as is done in foreign countries that thereby pay $10Bs less for BigPharma's shit.

[RandomGuy]

Wholesale Prices Rise For 7th Straight Month

Wholesale prices outside of the volatile food and energy categories rose at the fastest pace in more than two years last month, a sign inflation could be rising as the economy strengthens.

The increase comes after months of rising prices for oil, cotton, corn, wheat and other commodities

About 40 percent of the rise in the core index stemmed from higher pharmaceutical prices, which jumped 1.4 percent. That's the largest increase for that category in nearly three years.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/16/wholesale-prices-rise-for_n_824027.html?view=print

==========

BigPharma screwing America again, trying to suck in a few $Bs in the face of many $Bs to be lost in the next two years as their top selling proprietary drugs come off patent.

Nowhere in Barry's or Boner's budget is there any talk of curbing runaway increases in health, only in excluding people who can't pay from getting care.

And nowhere was there any proposal to nullify the dubya/Repug regulation that forbids govt from negotiating as single buyer to BigPharma, as is done in foreign countries that thereby pay $10Bs less for BigPharma's shit.

I have zero doubt that we will see some pretty substantive inflationary pressures as energy prices percolate through the system, and food demand goes up along with it.

What I do doubt is the "hyperinflation of the OP".

[RandomGuy]

Long-Term trends showed there never being a 10 year period period of time in which the stock market was negative. Over 70 periods to data. What happend the 10 year periods ending '08 and '09? Negative.

Yeah, the world hasn't changed much the past 10 years.:)

Both of these are strawmen.

You have refuted things I have never said.

[RandomGuy]

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:
• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.


http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/signs-hyperinflation-is-arriving.html

One month to go.
Most recent inflation data for Feb:
Wholesale prices spike on steep rise in food, oil


WASHINGTON – Higher energy costs and the steepest rise in food prices in nearly four decades drove wholesale prices up last month by the most in nearly two years. Excluding those categories, inflation was tame.

The Producer Price Index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.6 percent in February, the Labor Department said Wednesday. That's double the 0.8 percent rise from the previous month. Outside of food and energy costs, the core index ticked up 0.2 percent, less than January's 0.5 percent rise.

...

David Resler, an economist at Nomura Securities, said the jump in prices is likely temporary, echoing remarks made by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. Much of the increase in food prices was due to winter freezes in Florida, Texas and other agricultural areas, Resler said. Turmoil in the Middle East is a major reason that motorists are facing higher gas prices.

"Both food and gasoline prices are going to stop rising so rapidly," Resler said.

But John Ryding, an economist at RDQ Economics, disagreed, noting that consumers will feel the impact for some time.

"We do not buy the Fed's reassurance that these pressures will be temporary and we believe the public, seeing these strong increases in food and energy ... will not be marking back down their inflation expectations," Ryding said.

The OP's prediction is running out of time. His "pretty confident" prediction of runaway inflation by the end of the year seems not to be panning out.

[RandomGuy]

By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.


It is June.

No Hyperinflation yet.

More Paultard fail.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

What about inflation?

[RandomGuy]

What about inflation?

It's there to be sure. The run up in oil, that looks to me to be sustained, is finding its way into the CPI as energy costs tick up.

The run up in food due to a bad year for some grains in many parts of the world is also having an effect.

But the hyperinflation long predicted by gold bugs and other fringe nutters rooting for a dollar collapse has, unsurprisingly not materialized, any more than the rapture happened on the 21st of May...

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Sustained, huh.

[ChumpDumper]

Who didn't predict inflation, Viva?

[Winehole23]

nm

[Viva Las Espuelas]

I dont know.

[RandomGuy]

I've done OK on metals...I've got about 1/2 pound of gold in coins bought in the $380's and also bought several of these (proofs in the boxes with certificates) when they came out for a little under $200.

http://cgi.ebay.com/1991-1-oz-PALLADIUM-25-Rouble-Russian-BALLERINA-Coin-/350438684753?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_2&hash=item5197c5f851#ht_3258wt_905

Obviously there are some stocks I would have done better with in the same time frame...

Gold is looking even better now. Congrats.

[RandomGuy]

Therefore, I predicted that inflation would spiral out of control, and turn into hyperinflation of the U.S. dollar.

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:
• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
FAIL
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
FAIL
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
ABOUT TO FAIL

• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980
ABOUT TO FAIL

Failed, failed, and just about to fail.

The assumption in the OP was rather well tested. Seems like no one seems to think that US treasuries still aren't the safest bet around.

Where else are you going to park your cash, GREECE?

[Drachen]

Did they charge you big fees to refinance? Or did you just purchase the car?

who charges fees to refinance. This is the second time I have seen someone talk about this... I just refi'd and didn't get charged a fee (and have never been charged for that matter)

[RandomGuy]

http://images2.dailykos.com/i/user/2722/TMW2011-08-17colorKOS.png

[DarrinS]

Thanks for posting the cartoon. It shows how the left oversimplifies and stereotypes.

[Parker2112]

Failed, failed, and just about to fail.

The assumption in the OP was rather well tested. Seems like no one seems to think that US treasuries still aren't the safest bet around.

Where else are you going to park your cash, GREECE?

So your point is that our currency is safer than Greece, and therefore our system is beyond reproach?

Are you always this dumb?

:toast

[RandomGuy]

Thanks for posting the cartoon. It shows how the left oversimplifies and stereotypes.

You say that as if you have never seen a political cartoon before. :lol

Now, little Darrin, when grown-ups want to make a point in a funny way, they use what is called "satire". They will draw simple, funny pictures that tell a story.

Can you say "satire"?



[/condescention]

[Wild Cobra]

[pollution controls on dioxins and heavy metals are] just more "feel good" liberal expenses.-- Wile E. Cobra
Spurstalk post #5354469
Hey liar, if you are going to quote me, get it right instead of slandering me.

The above quote is a flat out lie.

[RandomGuy]

So your point is that our currency is safer than Greece, and therefore our system is beyond reproach?

Are you always this dumb?

:toast

Nope. :nope

The point I made was that, at the end of the day, we are still regarded as the safe haven.

The main assumption of the OP is that underlying "safe haven" assumption will change, and should have changed by now.

I didn't say anything about our current system being "above reproach"?

Since you sort of asked, I would say it definitely isn't above reproach, as S & P made pretty clear in their statement.

The current rather noisy move to the right in this country, and the increasingly extremist viewpoint of the Republican party has caused a great deal of political upheaval. That has done more damage than any amount of debt we have taken on thus far.

[RandomGuy]

Hey liar, if you are going to quote me, get it right instead of slandering me.

The above quote is a flat out lie.




If a firm is going to disregard the regulations, what good does accounting do that can be doctored anyway?

I see it as just more "feel good" liberal expenses.


Accounting for all the toxic pollution you produce is a "pollution control", because it forces companies to be aware of, and report, their pollution, and provides penalties if they don't.

I don't think the attribution is at all a lie.

Your words. "feel good" liberal expenses" when talking about companies having to keep track of really toxic waste.

[Wild Cobra]

Your words. "feel good" liberal expenses" when talking about companies having to keep track of really toxic waste.
I was referring to the specific accountability requirements liar.

[RandomGuy]

I was referring to the specific accountability requirements liar.

So it should be "some pollution controls are" instead of "pollution contols are".

Fair enough.

(edit)

Fixed.

[ChumpDumper]

Thanks for posting the cartoon. It shows how the left oversimplifies and stereotypes.Did you really post this, Darrin?

[Wild Cobra]

--- in other tread ---

[Parker2112]

The current rather noisy move to the right in this country, and the increasingly extremist viewpoint of the Republican party has caused a great deal of political upheaval. That has done more damage than any amount of debt we have taken on thus far.

The "noise" your referring to is made by a select few right-wing idiots who left-wing sheep like yourself point at in order to propogate the false left-right paradigm. The damage they inflict cant be near as bad as the damage done by repeated QEs by the FED, which you publically support, old people's pensions and savings be-damned.

There has been no "shift" to the right. We see the same people who voted for bush, now railing against socialism and obama.

The only move that matters is that of independents moving towards libertarian views as the only option to reign in the crushing weight of our federal folly.

And if the Dollar is so damn safe, why is the international community continually proposing a move away from it as the world reserve? When this happens, do you think the cash in your pocket will be worth more as TP or as kindling?

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/07/01/report-calls-world-ditch-dollar-migrate-global-reserve-currency/

You really are a sheep, RG.

[RandomGuy]

Did you really post this, Darrin?

I wonder how long it will take Darrin to notice....

If he doesn't figure it out, I will point it out to him in great big, simple words.

[Parker2112]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/us-economy-un-idUSTRE74O6EI20110525

Maybe if you keep the covers pulled up, the bad things wont happen, RG.

[ChumpDumper]

What are you doing with all your money, Parker?

[Parker2112]

spending it like there is no tomorrow, of course.

[Parker2112]

The value is only going to keep falling, fella. I can get more for it today than I can when the prices go up tomorrow.

[Parker2112]

http://links.com/linkswpamaz/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/bernanke-helicopter-jpg.jpg

[RandomGuy]

The "noise" your referring to is made by a select few right-wing idiots who left-wing sheep like yourself point at in order to propogate the false left-right paradigm. The damage they inflict cant be near as bad as the damage done by repeated QEs by the FED, which you publically support, old people's pensions and savings be-damned.

There has been no "shift" to the right. We see the same people who voted for bush, now railing against socialism and obama.

The only move that matters is that of independents moving towards libertarian views as the only option to reign in the crushing weight of our federal folly.

And if the Dollar is so damn safe, why is the international community continually proposing a move away from it as the world reserve? When this happens, do you think the cash in your pocket will be worth more as TP or as kindling?

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/07/01/report-calls-world-ditch-dollar-migrate-global-reserve-currency/

You really are a sheep, RG.

The "international community" generally proposes this because they, generally Russia and China, would prefer to erode the US power base.

(funny enough, I typed that before clicking and reading the link, heh)

I actually agree with that report.

Ultimately though, the IMF funding is still dominated by the dollar, since we are one of the bigger donors, so it wouldn't be *that* much of a solution.

Sorry, once again, I don't get to fit into your false paradigm of what "the left" is. :p:

[RandomGuy]

http://links.com/linkswpamaz/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/bernanke-helicopter-jpg.jpg

Maybe that is what is causing those chemtrails.

[Parker2112]

International banking interests have no nationality. The people pushing for IMF drawing rights dont give two shits about Chinese or Russian national interests.

You are completely in the dark if you confuse international banking interests and nationalistic aims. Profit is the goal. Not the welfare of citizens inside an arbitrary geographic border. The laws and the policies of this nation have been groomed and manipulated to benefit interests whose perpetual aim is to "extract" wealth from within our borders, so that wealth finds its way into the borders of a specific bank account. Very likely Swiss.

[RandomGuy]

International banking interests have no nationality. The people pushing for IMF drawing rights dont give two shits about Chinese or Russian national interests.

Hmm. This is a UN report.

Can you tell me who the five permanent members of the Security Council are again? I need a refresher.

[RandomGuy]

As much as I have missed Parkers witty reparte, I must be going for now. See y'all later.

[Parker2112]

The people pushing for IMF drawing rights dont give two shits about Chinese or Russian national interests.


Realize the subtle distinction here.

Then you will realize that your question is irrelevant.

These interests lobby through governments. Governments which are otherwise for sale. As you posed in you Dylan Ratigan rant.

[Parker2112]

I understand the concept of something larger and more powerful than federal governments can be difficult to grasp. Your just going to have to trust me on this one RG.

[ChumpDumper]

spending it like there is no tomorrow, of course.You don't see any other way of preserving wealth, fella?

[Parker2112]

actually, raising children is costly. No way around it. And if you want something more for the little critters, its even more expensive.

But tangible assets dont seem to be depreciating as fast as the dollar these days.

[Blake]

http://links.com/linkswpamaz/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/bernanke-helicopter-jpg.jpg

yes... put your money in something tangible, tbh.

http://mjcdn.motherjones.com/preset_16/goldline-beck300.jpg

[Parker2112]

gold's bubble will burst, imo.

[ElNono]

Gold will go down when govt interest rates finally go back up, and the government stop printing money like crazy.

[MannyIsGod]

Thanks for posting the cartoon. It shows how the left oversimplifies and stereotypes.

LOL of all people to post this - YOU are going to talk about oversimplification and stereotypes???? Reallly??

[MannyIsGod]

Maybe that is what is causing those chemtrails.

:lmao

[Parker2112]

:lmao

You didnt laugh when WH said he thought these were likely military experiments. Jus sayin.

[RandomGuy]

You didnt laugh when WH said he thought these were likely military experiments. Jus sayin.

There is a thread for that discussion...

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=168247

:toast

[Blake]

gold's bubble will burst, imo.

you're a conspiracy sheep, tbh

[RandomGuy]

Thanks for posting the cartoon. It shows how the left oversimplifies and stereotypes.


LOL of all people to post this - YOU are going to talk about oversimplification and stereotypes???? Reallly??

http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2011/03/irony3-258x300.jpg

It doesn’t get more ironically hypocritical.

“the left oversimplifies and stereotypes”

Is itself an oversimplification and stereotype of everybody on the left.

That is sigworthy stupidity right there.

[RandomGuy]

International banking interests have no nationality. The people pushing for IMF drawing rights dont give two shits about Chinese or Russian national interests.


Hmm. This is a UN report.

Can you tell me who the five permanent members of the Security Council are again? I need a refresher.


Realize the subtle distinction here.

Then you will realize that your question is irrelevant.

These interests lobby through governments. Governments which are otherwise for sale. As you posed in you Dylan Ratigan rant.

The correct answer to the question that you avoided:

United States
Great Britain
France
Russia
China

are all permanent members of the UN security council.

I see what you are trying to do there, but both countries have pretty substantial government involvement in the private sector.

Trying to distinguish between government/national interest is a false dichotomy.

[RandomGuy]

I understand the concept of something larger and more powerful than federal governments can be difficult to grasp. Your just going to have to trust me on this one RG.

No, no I am not.

I don't trust your ability to reason your way out of a paper bag, and I sure as hell am not going to take your word that you have glommed on to some greater truth that is a secret from the rest of us sheeple.

You are obviously above average intelligence, but then so is Wild Cobra.

The thing that hobbles you both is an unfailing blindness to the flaws in your underlying assumptions. The biggest engine in the world doesn't mean much when hobbled with a shitty transmission.

[RandomGuy]

Therefore, I predicted that inflation would spiral out of control, and turn into hyperinflation of the U.S. dollar.

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:
• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
FAIL
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
FAIL
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
FAIL

• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980
ABOUT TO FAIL


Looks like the fucktard in the OP has thoroughly stepped on his dick.

What now Parker?

[angrydude]

No serious price inflation is going to hit the US until after the Europe situation resolves itself. Once Greece or Spain or whoever else defaults this year and people start buying Euros or whatever the hell is left. They won't be buying US treasuries. The argument that, "oh yea, I dare you to find an alternative to me fucking you in the ass" is a really stupid one.

No serious price inflation is going to hit until banks start lending again. that won't happen until the economy starts to "recover." This is already happening at the latest job reports show. No one doubts printing money starts new bubbles, and that bubbles make it look like the economy is doing awesome. People worry about what happens after it bursts and we have all the money sitting around that nobody wants.

[DMX7]

Ron Paul gets foreign policy, but he fails at monetary policy and predictions.

[boutons_deux]

"No serious price inflation is going to hit until ... "

1) price push from oil or food

2) US consumers feel confident enough to start buying again, to start going into debt again, but the 10M jobs lost since 2007, consumers will remain absent for several more years. Consumers are still paying down their debt, and millions are underwater with their mortgages.

Graduates have $1T in college debt, and can't find jobs, and certainly can't get mortgages to start households.

Banks won't lend because the interest rates are too low. They make more money in the financial markets, in the Wall St casino.

[Wild Cobra]

Looks like the fucktard in the OP has thoroughly stepped on his dick.

What now Parker?
Do you expect anything different from Parker?

[RandomGuy]

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/signs-hyperinflation-is-arriving.html


Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:
• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.

What the mainstream commentariat will make of all this will be really something: When CPI reaches 5% by the winter of 2011, pundits and economists and the Fed and the Obama administration will all say the same thing: “Happy days are here again! People are spending! The economy is back on track!”

However, by the late spring, early summer of 2011, people will realize what’s going on—and the Federal Reserve will initially be unwilling to drastically raise interest rates so as to quell inflation.

Actually, the Fed won’t be able to raise rates, at least not like Volcker did back in 1980: The U.S. economy will be too weak, and the Federal government’s balance sheet will be too distressed, with it’s $1.5 trillion deficit. So at first, the Fed will have to let the rising inflation rate slide, and keep trying hard to explain it away as “a sign of a recovering economy”.

Once the Fed realizes that the rising CPI is not a sign of a reignited economy, but rather a sign of the collapsing dollar, they will pursue a puerile “inflation fighting” scheme of incremental interest rate hikes—much like G. William Miller, the Chairman of the Fed from January of ‘78 to August of ‘79, pursued so unsuccessfully.

2012 will be the bad year: I predict that hyperinflation’s tipping point will be no later than the first quarter of 2012. From there, it will accelerate. By the end of 2012, I would not be surprised if the CPI for the year averaged 30%.

:lmao

[101A]

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:
• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.

What the mainstream commentariat will make of all this will be really something: When CPI reaches 5% by the winter of 2011, pundits and economists and the Fed and the Obama administration will all say the same thing: “Happy days are here again! People are spending! The economy is back on track!”

However, by the late spring, early summer of 2011, people will realize what’s going on—and the Federal Reserve will initially be unwilling to drastically raise interest rates so as to quell inflation.

Actually, the Fed won’t be able to raise rates, at least not like Volcker did back in 1980: The U.S. economy will be too weak, and the Federal government’s balance sheet will be too distressed, with it’s $1.5 trillion deficit. So at first, the Fed will have to let the rising inflation rate slide, and keep trying hard to explain it away as “a sign of a recovering economy”.

Once the Fed realizes that the rising CPI is not a sign of a reignited economy, but rather a sign of the collapsing dollar, they will pursue a puerile “inflation fighting” scheme of incremental interest rate hikes—much like G. William Miller, the Chairman of the Fed from January of ‘78 to August of ‘79, pursued so unsuccessfully.

2012 will be the bad year: I predict that hyperinflation’s tipping point will be no later than the first quarter of 2012. From there, it will accelerate. By the end of 2012, I would not be surprised if the CPI for the year averaged 30%.


:lmao

I don't think "CPI" means what he thinks it means.

[Clipper Nation]

Ron Paul gets foreign policy, but he fails at monetary policy and predictions.
:lmao

RP predicted the real estate collapse in 2001 and predicted an expensive, unconstitutional war in Iraq in 1998... try again...

[RandomGuy]

:lmao

RP predicted the real estate collapse in 2001 and predicted an expensive, unconstitutional war in Iraq in 1998... try again...

Ron Paul predicted those things successfully. How does this affect the inherent truth of his other predictions?

[CosmicCowboy]

Although the OP's timing was obviously off, does anyone really think that inflation is not inevitable? I'm certainly betting my financial life on it and investing in hard assets. I just did a cash out refi on the house I live in and just put in a bid on a house I plan to buy for a rent house with 3.5% down and interest of 3.5%. With interest rates this low I ain't skeered of debt.

[boutons_deux]

"does anyone really think that inflation is not inevitable"

The Fed has no traction with interest at effectively 0%, but excessive inflation (greater than full-employment inflation of about 5%) arrives, the Fed can Volcker it.

and inflation can be either demand-pull or cost-push. Which one specifically are you afraid of as you campaign to shred the safet net and push USA into deeper recession? (which won't affect you, of course)

[CosmicCowboy]

Since you obviously don't interface with the real world except through cyber ranting, let me break it to you...unlike the artificially manipulated interest rates, hard commodities are rapidly increasing in cost. Hell, even scap is bringing stupid money. I redid some fencing at the ranch recently and needed to get rid of the old wire...i bundled it all up with the skid loader and dropped it on my trailer and took it by the salvage yard just to get rid of it and not have old rusty barbed wire on the ranch...thats about the lowest grade of scrap you can have and damned if they didn't give me almost 90 dollars for a little over 1000# of rusted barbed wire.

[CosmicCowboy]

And yeah Boutons...I don't give a fuck about you or your fucking single wide with all the cat piss and shit everywhere...safet (sic) net my ass.

[boutons_deux]

"hard commodities are rapidly increasing in cost"

so what does your fucking barbed wire have to do with Fed policies of printing money? nothing.

and much of the commodity inflation is due to traders, not real demand.

[CosmicCowboy]

"hard commodities are rapidly increasing in cost"

so what does your fucking barbed wire have to do with Fed policies of printing money? nothing.

and much of the commodity inflation is due to traders, not real demand.








There are a lot of people in this world outside of your trailer park Boutons. A lot of them even speak funny languages.

[ChumpDumper]

Inflation is not necessarily hyper.

[RandomGuy]

Although the OP's timing was obviously off, does anyone really think that inflation is not inevitable? I'm certainly betting my financial life on it and investing in hard assets. I just did a cash out refi on the house I live in and just put in a bid on a house I plan to buy for a rent house with 3.5% down and interest of 3.5%. With interest rates this low I ain't skeered of debt.

Inflation is inevitable.

"hyper-inflation"... not so much.

You better hope that India/China/Africa keep growing, otherwise our demographics don't bode well for the demand side of the equation.

Kinda hard to have overall inflation with a shrinking, aging country. Ask the Japanese about that.

[boutons_deux]

"overall inflation with a shrinking, aging country."

the commodity traders will all cost-push inflation, even if the demand isn't there.

[Twisted_Dawg]

Although the OP's timing was obviously off, does anyone really think that inflation is not inevitable? I'm certainly betting my financial life on it and investing in hard assets. I just did a cash out refi on the house I live in and just put in a bid on a house I plan to buy for a rent house with 3.5% down and interest of 3.5%. With interest rates this low I ain't skeered of debt.

Fully agree with your scenario of hype inflation. But I'm a bit uneasy about brining on rental property. If we have hyper inflation, then I think we also have sky high unemployment which means it might be hard to rent property, with the exception of it being Section 8. This is not the 1970's with 19% inflation and high employment.
Plus with hyper inflation and high unemployment I don't see real estate appreciation. Not to mention a plumber wanting to charge you $1500-$2000 to replace a water heater.

[Wild Cobra]

Inflation is not necessarily hyper.
You usually aren't that far off. Are you losing it?

Inflation if rarely hyperinflation!

[boutons_deux]

There are a lot of people in this world outside of your trailer park Boutons. A lot of them even speak funny languages.

they all buy oil, coal, food commodities on the trader-rigged world market.

[boutons_deux]

The hyperinflation boogeyman scaremongering started by in 2008 by the Repugs wanting to kill any federal stimulus to keep the economy shitty until Nov 2012, just like Doomsday prophets.

4 years later, Doomsday ain't here, so the inflation Doomsday soothsayer they keep lying and pushing the date back. :lol

They were wrong then, were laughably wrong about defeating Barry, and are wrong on hyperinflation, and damn near everything, including the need for a debt ceiling and avoiding the silly fiscal cliff boogeyman. But Repugs keep repeating the same old LIES non-stop so that right-wing assholes in this forum and everywhere keep believing those LIES.

[CosmicCowboy]

Interest rates are low in the US and UK because they are monetizing their debt. Don't confuse that with deflation. Inflation still exists. It's all about perception. Even stupid people like Boutox will eventually realize that the shell game of monetizing our debt can't last forever.

[boutons_deux]

"Inflation still exists"

duh, inflation ALWAYS exists, CosmicCowfucker

[RandomGuy]

Interest rates are low in the US and UK because they are monetizing their debt. Don't confuse that with deflation. Inflation still exists. It's all about perception. Even stupid people like Boutox will eventually realize that the shell game of monetizing our debt can't last forever.

Yes, actually, it can.

[ChumpDumper]

You usually aren't that far off. Are you losing it?

Inflation if rarely hyperinflation!Losing what?

Tell me how my statement is wrong.

[RandomGuy]

Interest rates are low in the US and UK because they are monetizing their debt. Don't confuse that with deflation. Inflation still exists. It's all about perception. Even stupid people like Boutox will eventually realize that the shell game of monetizing our debt can't last forever.

Sure inflation still exists.

I just don't see hyperinflation happening.

The people that are pushing that particular fear boogeyman appear to have a pretty marked financial interest in getting as many people believing it as possible. That should be setting off alarm bells.

[RandomGuy]

Three years later... still no hyperinflation...

[boutons_deux]

hyperinflation FUD and scaremongering were the Repug strategy to kill/reduce Obama's stimulus.

It worked, the stimulus was too small for the retraction in commercial/private spending, so here we are, thanks to Repugs, stuck in the Banksters Great (Jobs) Depression 5 years later, with absolutely no discussion of jobs or stimulus.

Repugs fuck up America non-stop.

[Nbadan]

Three years later... still no hyperinflation...

If anything there has been price deflation...hard to have inflation when real wages keep going down...

[Winehole23]

https://sullydish.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/inflation.png?w=580&h=402 (https://sullydish.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/inflation.png)

[Winehole23]

six years after the Great Panic of 2008, the world still faces deflationary headwinds.

[tlongII]

That graph would be better if it was compared to income growth.

[ChumpDumper]

Goalposts: moved.

[boutons_deux]

That graph would be better if it was compared to income growth.

income growth for the 1% is wonderful

For the avg household, income is DOWN 10%+ in real terms since the Repugs took office in 2001.

The 1% were screaming their LIE about "hyper inflation" because as creditors/lenders, they lose to inflation, while debtors win.

iow, and as always, the 1%/corps/VRWC have nothing but LIES provoking paranoia, fear, hate.

[ElNono]

:lol this thread

[SnakeBoy]

six years after the Great Panic of 2008, the world still faces deflationary headwinds.

Yep

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/fed-aim-off-target-as-inflation-descends-near-danger-zone.html

[RandomGuy]

:lol this thread

Parker2112 was good for laughs.

[RandomGuy]

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/signs-hyperinflation-is-arriving.html

Still failed.

Good commentary by someone who has gotten a lot closer than Mr. Lira at predicting the general course we have taken since 2010:

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/debunking-gonzalo-lira-and-hyperinflation/

[SnakeBoy]

Parker2112 was good for laughs.

My favorite poster ever tbh.

[boutons_deux]

hyper-inflation? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong!

Obamacare destroy America? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong!

Social Security disaster? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong!

Privatize SS? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong! (rejected by America)

Defaulting on US bonds no problem? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong!

Cutting Taxes pays for itself? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong!

Cutting taxes creates jobs? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong!

the debt and deficit are fixed by AUSTERITY? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong!

Cutting unemployment forces people to work? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong! (eg: North Carolina)

Contraception is abortion? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong!

Gay marriage destroys hetero-marriage AND America? VRWC/1%/Repugs were wrong!

etc, etc, etc.

The fucking VRWC/1%/Repugs ARE ALWAYS WRONG!

[RandomGuy]

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/signs-hyperinflation-is-arriving.html

Still waiting sporto.

No hyper inflation yet.

[RandomGuy]

We will have hyperstagflation not hyperinflation.

DING!

[Wild Cobra]

Wow.

Something we agree on.

Yes...

Where is this hyperinflation?

[boutons_deux]

hyperinflation destroying the country?

national debt destroying the country and for generations? Who will think of the grandkids?

Obamacare destroying jobs and the country?

Social Security is bankrupt and $Ts must be transferred to Wall st?

Public schools are garbage and must be privatized?

Repugs, BigCorp, VRWC, 1% have nothing but self-serving propaganda and LIES. They don't give a fuck about the 99% or America.

[RandomGuy]

Yearly check in.

No hyperinflation yet.

[dabom]

nvm.

[boutons_deux]

The Bankers' Fed still making noises about raising interest rates because the (fake) unemployment rate too low, so Fed must kill 100Ks jobs to get that unemployment rate up.

Stupendous wage growth is pushing up the inflation rate! :lol

[RandomGuy]

2018..

no hyperinflation yet.

LOL OP

[RandomGuy]

six years after the Great Panic of 2008, the world still faces deflationary headwinds.

12 years after, looks about as good for "hyperinflation". If not worse.

[Winehole23]

12 years after, looks about as good for "hyperinflation". If not worse.

Deflation appears to be the scary monster short term.

[boutons_deux]

US GDP shrank 4.8% in the first quarter amid biggest contraction since the financial crisis



GDP in the first quarter contracted 4.8%, compared to estimates of a 3.5% drop, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Wednesday.
This was the first negative reading since the first quarter of 2014, though not as bad as the worst of the financial crisis.
Economists expect the Q1 reading to decline even more when the final revisions are issued.



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/us-gdp-q1-2020-first-reading.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/us-gdp-q1-2020-first-reading.html)

[Winehole23]

12 years after, looks about as good for "hyperinflation". If not worse.Michael Hudson regards it as one big recession. The real economy never recovered after 2009. Financialization raped the commons and extracted fees from a prostate and helpless public, but the financial house of cards wasn't resilient enough to weather a pandemic. In 2020.

This bailout differs in scale, not kind. Sorry to say, I don't think it will work so well this time either. Too donor facing.

If there's one spooky feature, it's BlackStone running the Fed lending facilities.

[RandomGuy]

Michael Hudson regards it as one big recession. The real economy never recovered after 2009. Financialization raped the commons and extracted fees from a prostate and helpless public, but the financial house of cards wasn't resilient enough to weather a pandemic. In 2020.

This bailout differs in scale, not kind. Sorry to say, I don't think it will work so well this time either. Too donor facing.

If there's one spooky feature, it's BlackStone running the Fed lending facilities.

Yearly check in. No hyperinflation yet.

Some are predicting it tho. Roaring 20's two point oh.

[Winehole23]

Two months at the beginning of the end of US COVID restrictions isn't enough to establish a trend, and the conditions are anything but normal. Consider where the economy was one year ago, a 5% YoY spike in inflation might be considered a measure of rude good health.

See also the WSJ article (https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-commodities-crunch-caused-by-stingy-capital-spending-has-no-quick-fix-11623144780) I posted a couple of days ago about US companies failing to make capital expenditures over the last ten years (hello, stock buybacks) sufficient to allow them to rebound quickly, thereby putting a stitch in productive capacity and goosing prices in the short term.

1403348955497435138

[Thread]

Two months at the beginning of the end of US COVID restrictions isn't enough to establish a trend, and the conditions are anything but normal. Consider where the economy was one year ago, a 5% YoY spike in inflation might be considered a measure of rude good health.

See also the WSJ article (https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-commodities-crunch-caused-by-stingy-capital-spending-has-no-quick-fix-11623144780) I posted a couple of days ago about US companies failing to make capital expenditures over the last ten years (hello, stock buybacks) sufficient to allow them to rebound quickly, thereby putting a stitch in productive capacity and goosing prices in the short term.

1403348955497435138

Right off the bat we got a $1 a gallon increase in the price of gasoline after mother fucker Biden stole the election. But that is SOP when a Democrat seizes control of the government...like fuckin' clockwork. Right afterward we're flooded with segments on CNN/MSNBC where they'll find some Republican who states:::"I am a republican, a life long republican and frankly I am not mad about the increase in gas prices even though I'm a republican, a lifelong republican in fact. It makes sense and is good for the global warming that affects all of us, republican, which I am one all my life and the Democrats."

[CosmicCowboy]

I know I am getting price increases from vendors almost daily averaging around 8%. I'm not predicting "hyper" inflation, but inflation is real. Historically the Fed has tried to keep interest rates about 100 basic points over the inflation rate. Even if inflation "only" jumps to a sustained rate of 4% and interest rates hit 5% it will really suck. Federal tax revenue fir 2021 is estimated to be 3.8 trillion. 5% interest on the existing debt would literally take half of tax revenues...With a six trillion budget we would be adding 5 trillion of debt every year with the corresponding increase in debt service cost. Ultimately, all tax revenue would be going just to pay interest.

[boutons_deux]

It Gets Ugly:

Dollar’s Purchasing Power Plunged at Fastest Pace since 1982.

It’s “Permanent” not “Temporary,” Won’t Bounce Back



https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/US-CPI-2021-06-10-dollar-purchasing-power.png

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/06/10/it-gets-ugly-dollars-purchasing-power-plunged-at-fastest-pace-since-1982-its-permanent-not-temporary-wont-bounce-back/

[RandomGuy]

I know I am getting price increases from vendors almost daily averaging around 8%. I'm not predicting "hyper" inflation, but inflation is real. Historically the Fed has tried to keep interest rates about 100 basic points over the inflation rate. Even if inflation "only" jumps to a sustained rate of 4% and interest rates hit 5% it will really suck. Federal tax revenue fir 2021 is estimated to be 3.8 trillion. 5% interest on the existing debt would literally take half of tax revenues...With a six trillion budget we would be adding 5 trillion of debt every year with the corresponding increase in debt service cost. Ultimately, all tax revenue would be going just to pay interest.

Real, but no one expects it to be sustained. People are sitting on cash, and any shortfall in supply will find funds easy to get for investments in increasing the supply curve.

Consensus is that inflation will drop back down to recent historical ranges within a year or so.

[RandomGuy]

Biden stole the election.

:cry muh Big Lie :cry

Cry harder. Getting more votes than the other guy is the definition of NOT stealing an election. Keep smearing that manure on your face. :lol

[Thread]

:cry muh Big Lie :cry

Cry harder. Getting more votes than the other guy is the definition of NOT stealing an election. Keep smearing that manure on your face. :lol

The manure tact, eh?

[RandomGuy]

The manure tact, eh?

Losers in elections did not have that election "stolen" from them.

There really was no fraud, isolated cases excepted.

If there were a fraud on a scale large enough to change the outcome, it would be easily proved.

What's funny is that the lawyers you think were going to conclusively prove this mythological event didn't try to argue that they had evidence of it in court.

Why is that?

[Thread]

Losers in elections did not have that election "stolen" from them.

There really was no fraud, isolated cases excepted.

If there were a fraud on a scale large enough to change the outcome, it would be easily proved.

What's funny is that the lawyers you think were going to conclusively prove this mythological event didn't try to argue that they had evidence of it in court.

Why is that?

Just giving you all a hard row to hoe, like you done President Trump. You're safe, RG, ain't like when President Trump got sworn and drove over to the White House only to find out that your side had threatened to blow the damn place up. You're okay.

Signed,
The *"embarrassment, sick, chump" that voted for President Trump.

*mother fucker Biden's citations for his fellow Americans.

[Winehole23]

because they had no evidence of fraud

[Thread]

because they had no evidence of fraud

Just giving you all a taste of your medicine.

Stings, don't it?

ha, ha.

[Winehole23]

Just giving you all a taste of your medicine.

Stings, don't it?not at all, y'all are beclowning yourselves

[Thread]

not at all, y'all are beclowning yourselves

You guys did the exact same thing for Trump's entire presidency. You have this coming, just shut up and take it.

[Winehole23]

You guys did the exact same thing for Trump's entire presidency. You have this coming, just shut up and take it.I didn't, tbh.

I congratulated Trump for the historic, astounding win in 2016 and have said he won fair and square ever since.

[Thread]

I didn't, tbh.

I know, I can't find anybody who will own up to it. Same with Hillary. Can't find a soul who voted for her.

[Winehole23]

I know, I can't find anybody who will own up to it. Same with Hillary. Can't find a soul who voted for her.you're welcome to repost anything by me saying the 2016 election was stolen, by the Russians or anyone else.

you won't because there isn't any such post.

[Thread]

you're welcome to repost anything by me saying the 2016 election was stolen, by the Russians or anyone else.

you won't because there isn't any such post.

You're in bed with 'em, Wiinester...guilt by association. Get out of their bed!!!

[Winehole23]

You're in bed with 'em, Wiinester...guilt by association. Get out of their bed!!!guilt by association is a logal fallacy, but it is rhetorically effective.

you're all propaganda, all the time.

[rmt]

Used cars have gone up so much that it doesn't make sense to buy used anymore. Just look for manufacturer's rebate, buy lightly used "service" NEW vehicle from dealer. Been looking at cars for the past 15 months (for kids) and it is astounding how much prices have gone up.

But pretty much the same for restaurant and house prices.

[RandomGuy]

Used cars have gone up so much that it doesn't make sense to buy used anymore. Just look for manufacturer's rebate, buy lightly used "service" NEW vehicle from dealer. Been looking at cars for the past 15 months (for kids) and it is astounding how much prices have gone up.

But pretty much the same for restaurant and house prices.

cars, like houses, have to increase in number as the population increases.

If either doesn't for a period of time, then supply/demend will drive the price point up.

cars, unlike houses, have an appreciable % of them additionally wear out or totaled out to accidents/weather.

We are seeing that supplly/demand mismatch, as the demand is way more flexible/variable than supply.

My thoughts: one might expect car insurance rates to creep up to match in the next year. With blue book values likely higher than many rate structures were anticipating, their loss ratios will be higher, leading to a desire to increase rates to maintain profitability. Be interesting to pose the question to the actuarial dept.

[RandomGuy]

Yup, I would fully expect to see severity (average cost of a given claim) go up as used car prices increase. Same thing on the homeowners side as building supplies are skyrocketing.

Good point on the building supplies thing, forgot about that.

[boutons_deux]

Austin-area median home prices hit all-time high in May

In the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan statistical area,

home prices jumped 48% year over year

for 3,976 and the median home price increased 42.2% to the record number.

Sales dollar volume increased 116.2% year over year to more than $2.3 billion, and housing inventory fell to just half a month.

https://www.kxan.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2021/06/Austin-RR-home-stats.png?w=555

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin-area-median-home-prices-hit-all-time-high-in-may/

Building cost of home construction up about 25%

[ElNono]

Lumber prices dive more than 40% in June, biggest monthly drop on record

- Lumber futures have tanked 42% in June alone, on pace for their worst month on record dating back to 1978.
- The building commodity is down more than 13% in 2021, headed for the first negative first half since 2015.
- The quick reversal of lumber’s monthslong rally came as Americans started to go on vacations again instead of taking on renovation and building projects.
- Many who are fearful of persistent inflation also took comfort in the drastic decline in prices in the face of cooling demand.

The great lumber bubble of 2021 has popped.

After a jaw-dropping rally this spring, lumber prices have come back down to earth as supply increased, speculative trading action cooled and homebuilding demand eased. Lumber futures have tanked 42% in June alone, on pace for their worst month on record back to 1978. The building commodity is down more than 13% in 2021, headed for the first negative first half since 2015.

At its peak on May 7, lumber prices hit an all-time high of $1,670.50 per thousand board feet on a closing basis, which was more than six times higher than its pandemic low in April 2020.

The quick reversal of lumber’s monthslong rally came as Americans started to go on vacations again amid the economic reopening instead of taking on renovation and building projects. Many who are fearful of persistent inflation also took comfort in the drastic decline in prices in the face of cooling demand.

“This drop suggests that the cause of that inflation—the mismatch of supply and demand—will not last forever,” said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. “As suppliers across industries get their acts together, those shortages will fade, along with the inflation. That looks to be happening for lumber now and will happen for other inputs later.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/lumber-prices-dive-more-than-40percent-in-june-biggest-monthly-drop-on-record.html

[RandomGuy]

“This drop suggests that the cause of that inflation—the mismatch of supply and demand—will not last forever,” said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. “As suppliers across industries get their acts together, those shortages will fade, along with the inflation. That looks to be happening for lumber now and will happen for other inputs later.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/lumber-prices-dive-more-than-40percent-in-june-biggest-monthly-drop-on-record.html
Price of lumber, like other things, will bounce around a bit until it gets to a more stable equilibrium point.

I expect housing to do something similar.

[Winehole23]

Intersting article.

What if inflation isn't a purely monetary phenomenon, but politically influenced too?


Economists lack a good understanding of what causes inflation. In introductory macroeconomics curricula, the mantra of Milton Friedman remains central: “inflation is always a monetary phenomenon.” By this, Friedman meant that excessive price growth happens when a state loosens the supply of money, thus over-expanding the monetary base. But recent (https://privatedebtproject.org/pdp/view-articles.php?Rapid-Money-Supply-Growth-Does-Not-Cause-Inflation-28) research (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2005.00406.x) has brought (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0003122416639609) this popular doctrine into question. While expanding the money supply seems to be a necessary condition for uncontrolled inflation to occur, it is not sufficient: increases of the monetary base have occurred without any inflationary episodes, and inflationary episodes have happened with only very small increases in monetary base.


Contra Friedman, Hirschman suggested that uncontrolled inflation is primarily a political phenomenon that occurs when groups compete over resources. The rapid increase of the price level is a signal that the state can no longer control this competition. What exactly happened in the waning decades of the twentieth century, and why do the ghosts of inflation still haunt our economic and political reality?


Hyman Minsky’s writings on the collapse of the so-called golden age of capitalism offer some insight by forcing us to engage with how distributive struggles have driven the inflationary and deflationary cycles of the past fifty years. In doing so, we can construct an account of the political economy underpinning the “deflationary coalition” that rules the common sense of our economic policymakers and the policy they write—and the path to a new one.
https://phenomenalworld.org/analysis/deflation-inflation

[Winehole23]

To deal with stagflation, governments transitioned to a system which Minsky labeled “money manager capitalism.” This new system was marked by a rapid deregulation of finance and the creation of an economy in which managers of large concentrations of privately-created credit money met credit commitments through quick returns on investment. As a system, it was less stable and more anemic than its big government predecessor, but also less prone to inflation. Importantly, the latter shifted from wages and consumer good prices to financial assets. Credit expansion enabled the purchase and repurchase of financial assets, bidding up their prices irrespective of investment. In doing so, it allowed governments to halt inflation in consumer goods, at the cost of shifting investment away from the real economy and into the financial sector.

[Winehole23]

Minsky correctly points out that the “Volcker Shock” ended the era of stagflation by destroying the demand for money. It wasn’t the reduction of the state’s money supply, but the absolute destruction of the private economy that ended the great inflation. And it was changes in the real economy that made Volcker’s shock sustainable. The breaking of the OPEC cartel and the defeat of the labor movement destroyed the barrier to expanding investment and reduced the power of labor to bargain for wages.



What Minsky did not predict was that this situation would persist for a very long time. In the United States and around the world, deflationary political coalitions have proved to be very durable.

[Winehole23]

In the United States, financial deregulation and its attendant deflationary political coalition were embedded in the politics of housing. Housing policy has been integrated with welfare provision since the New Deal, when the Federal Government intervened in credit markets to create a thirty-year fixed mortgage and allow for widespread homeownership. But as Greta Krippner has shown (https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674066199), the stability of this system depended on strict financial regulations that limited the interest rates that banks could charge on deposits. The “savings and loans” bank industry was specifically dedicated to issuing government-backstopped, thirty-year fixed loans. The inflation of the 1970s threatened this system of housing provision, as savers searching for higher returns pulled their money out of savings and loans, and invested it in new, unregulated products like Certificates of Deposit (CDs). Re-regulating these new instruments would carry a high political cost, but neglecting them would risk destroying the housing market.

In response, American policy makers reacted by deregulating lending while maintaining government protection for housing relative to other consumer borrowing. Thus, housing became a special kind of asset that could both be widely held and appreciate relative to other forms of personal wealth. This avoided explicit “hard choices” about distribution and the rationing of credit by offsetting the losses to wages which followed the Volcker shock. In practice, targeting inflation means that the Federal Reserve and other central banks restrict credit at the point where labor markets begin to tighten. Until recently, central bankers assumed that inflation was at least in part triggered by an increase in employment beyond the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). This means that as an economy moves to full employment and workers can bargain for higher wages, central banks will restrict credit to engineer a pullback in the labor market.


As a result of these policies, a generation of homeowners found themselves with an appreciating capital asset, insured by the government, that could be used as a substitute for falling wages. New Deal housing policy was repurposed from the provision of long-term, stable shelter to a support for asset price inflation. This deal has been very good for a politically powerful cohort of homeowners who purchased their first house in the 1970s and 1980s. Coalitions of older homeowners have defended (https://www.noemamag.com/the-american-mortgage-is-an-investment-in-racial-inequality/) low taxes on housing relative to other assets and economic activities, such as California’s infamous Proposition 13—itself a reaction to the 1970s inflation. These same voters have made it impossible to build new housing units in high demand areas, jacking up prices on real estate. Housing wealth has become (http://realestate.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/802.pdf) increasingly held by the old, white, and wealthy, while cohorts born after the 1970s have found housing a drag on their net worth. (Lisa Adkins and Martijn Konings argue (https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/hfs/assets/2018/tipping-points/tp3_financialization_homeownership_nov-30_2018.pdf?la=en) that the political economy of the United States is now a machine for stealing the opportunity of the young to preserve the livelihoods of the elderly.) The deflationary coalition has been held together by a cohort of powerful voters whose financial position depends on the continual appreciation of capital assets at the expense of wages.

[Winehole23]

The creation of deflationary coalitions around the world supported the shift from wages to capital gains.

[Winehole23]

For some observers, a shocking result of the 2008 financial crisis was the “strange non-death of neoliberalism (https://www.wiley.com/en-us/The+Strange+Non+death+of+Neo+liberalism-p-9780745651200).” Why have neoliberal ideas persisted despite their apparent failures? The question seems less perplexing when we conceive of neoliberalism as a set of economic practices performed by institutions designed to protect the interests of the deflationary coalition.


Examining the current political landscape through the politics of inflation is illuminating: members of right wing populist movements, for example, are unified by a desire to preserve capital gains on asset ownership, whether they are CEOs of major banks or suburban homeowners needing to compensate for falling wages. The slogans of the Tea Party and the populist right (https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/populist-uprisings-and-the-inversion-of-inflation/) in the United States against new spending clearly demonstrate this fear of inflation.

[boutons_deux]

"there can be no demonstration that unemployment can be reduced without reestablishing inflation. "

US has had "full" employment and under 2% inflation for several years.

[Winehole23]

"there can be no demonstration that unemployment can be reduced without reestablishing inflation. "

US has had "full" employment and under 2% inflation for several years.You seem to have lost the context of the Hyman Minsky quote.

The article argues against Hyman Minsky's gloss in favor of "the deflationary coalition." You're underscoring the main point, not refuting it.

[Winehole23]

you're also leaving out the millions who left the workforce last year and never returned.

[Winehole23]

lol simple, sloppy boutons

[scott]

So close, yet so far.

[Winehole23]

So close, yet so far.Cryptic.

Expand please?

So few posters here have an actual point, I suspect you do.

[Thread]

Cryptic.

Expand please?

So few posters here have an actual point, I suspect you do.

You've been caught short as well lately, daddy-O. You ain't immune.

[scott]

Cryptic.

Expand please?

So few posters here have an actual point, I suspect you do.

I was reminded of this old thread because I looked at my private messages for the first time in 10 years and this was sent to me in it. We suffered the most significant two-year stretch of inflation this nation has seen in 40 years... and came up just short of hyperinflation in either of those years by a mere 1,217,500 nominal basis points. My main point I guess is that I wouldn't look to the OP (or the person who wrote the article posted) for economic prognostications.

[Winehole23]

I was reminded of this old thread because I looked at my private messages for the first time in 10 years and this was sent to me in it. We suffered the most significant two-year stretch of inflation this nation has seen in 40 years... and came up just short of hyperinflation in either of those years by a mere 1,217,500 nominal basis points. My main point I guess is that I wouldn't look to the OP (or the person who wrote the article posted) for economic prognostications.In fairness, economic prognostications are hard. Like James Galbreath Sr. said, they are so accurate they tend to recuperate astrology as a science.

But again, i mainly agree with what you're saying.

[scott]

I'm also amused that the originally quoted "think piece" quoted hyperinflation at 15% annualized. Shiiiiiiiiit, bring me the real hyperinflation. Until you are buying bread with wheelbarrows full of cash, it's all still fun and games.

[Winehole23]

I'm also amused that the originally quoted "think piece" quoted hyperinflation at 15% annualized. Shiiiiiiiiit, bring me the real hyperinflation. Until you are buying bread with wheelbarrows full of cash, it's all still fun and games.We're not Weimar Germany, but some people act like we are, or, are about to be. Helps to propel fascist national salvation.

Looking at you, Cosmic Cowboy.

[CosmicCowboy]

We're not Weimar Germany, but some people act like we are, or, are about to be. Helps to propel fascist national salvation.

Looking at you, Cosmic Cowboy.

Your stupid is showing again.

I have never predicted hyper-inflation.

I did correctly predict this latest round of inflation and will go on record now that the Fed may not ever get inflation down to 2% again.

[Thread]

I'm also amused that the originally quoted "think piece" quoted hyperinflation at 15% annualized. Shiiiiiiiiit, bring me the real hyperinflation. Until you are buying bread with wheelbarrows full of cash, it's all still fun and games.

Uh, uh, sure scott.

[CosmicCowboy]

Your stupid is showing again.

I have never predicted hyper-inflation.

I did correctly predict this latest round of inflation and will go on record now that the Fed may not ever get inflation down to 2% again.

And remember...inflation is cumulative. It's like compounding interest. Celebrating "inflation is down to only only 4%" ignores that inflation is up what...19% in the last three years?

[spurraider21]

the most recent "hyperinflation is coming" stuff was coming from crypto cultists, particularly after the SVB thing

[CosmicCowboy]

the most recent "hyperinflation is coming" stuff was coming from crypto cultists, particularly after the SVB thing

And the usual hyperbolic ads from the gold bugs. I'm not against gold and currently have about a pound in the safe but the ads to "switch your retirement funds to gold are hilarious.

[Thread]

And the usual hyperbolic ads from the gold bugs. I'm not against gold and currently have about a pound in the safe but the ads to "switch your retirement funds to gold are hilarious.

...because tumult has a commerce angle all to itself. "There isn't an ill wind that doesn't blow success to somebody."

[SnakeBoy]

will go on record now that the Fed may not ever get inflation down to 2% again.

They might achieve it temporarily if they break the financial system in their effort to tame inflation. I think it's entirely possible that they create another deflationary crisis. Over the longer term, global demographics and rising energy costs (specifically oil) will make rising inflation the norm.

[CosmicCowboy]

They might achieve it temporarily if they break the financial system in their effort to tame inflation. I think it's entirely possible that they create another deflationary crisis. Over the longer term, global demographics and rising energy costs (specifically oil) will make rising inflation the norm.

No way fed can cause deflation while US politicians continue to deficit spend forever into the future. There may be scattered areas of the economy devalueing (office buildings) but the overall trend will be inflation.

[ElNono]

They might achieve it temporarily if they break the financial system in their effort to tame inflation. I think it's entirely possible that they create another deflationary crisis. Over the longer term, global demographics and rising energy costs (specifically oil) will make rising inflation the norm.


No way fed can cause deflation while US politicians continue to deficit spend forever into the future. There may be scattered areas of the economy devalueing (office buildings) but the overall trend will be inflation.

It's really not that complicated or unlikely if interest rates raise above your average investment return, and goods supply finally normalizes to pre-pandemic levels. Especially outside of the summer window, when oil has more incidence.

[scott]

No way fed can cause deflation while US politicians continue to deficit spend forever into the future. There may be scattered areas of the economy devalueing (office buildings) but the overall trend will be inflation.

Yooooooo, let's settle down with issuing challenges like this. The NSA is probably reading this and we don't want them passing any bright ideas over to the political class.

[ElNono]

I'm also amused that the originally quoted "think piece" quoted hyperinflation at 15% annualized. Shiiiiiiiiit, bring me the real hyperinflation. Until you are buying bread with wheelbarrows full of cash, it's all still fun and games.

lol yeah... see Argentina right now, and that still not considered hyperinflation (yet)

[scott]

lol yeah... see Argentina right now, and that still not considered hyperinflation (yet)

Dang, did not realize things were like that in Argentina. That rough

[SnakeBoy]

lol yeah... see Argentina right now, and that still not considered hyperinflation (yet)

Hopefully Javier can turn that shithole around if he can win over the dumbest electorate on the planet.

[ElNono]

Dang, did not realize things were like that in Argentina. That rough


Hopefully Javier can turn that shithole around if he can win over the dumbest electorate on the planet.

Everybody saves in US dollars over there anyways, despite tight capital controls. Thankful Old Joe saved the US economy from the disaster he inherited from the big loser, tbh

[Thread]

Everybody saves in US dollars over there anyways, despite tight capital controls. Thankful Old Joe saved the US economy from the disaster he inherited from the big loser, tbh

Yeah, we went from 2 dollars a gallon gas/Trump to 6 dollars a gallon gas/Squattin' fuck Joe.

That Old Fuck squattin' in the White House sure showed us, El.

[CosmicCowboy]

Yeah, we went from 2 dollars a gallon gas/Trump to 6 dollars a gallon gas/Squattin' fuck Joe.

That Old Fuck squattin' in the White House sure showed us, El.

Some truths about gas prices:

Republicans like to blame gas prices on Biden. Oil/Gas are global commodities. The US is currently producing lots of oil, and in fact exports almost 5 million barrels a day to the rest of the world. The US President normally has zero effect on current gas prices. Biden raiding the strategic reserve before the 2022 elections was an aberration. Trump benefited from covid shutdowns temporarily lowering demand and consequently oil and gas prices.

Democrats like to point out that US Oil production "under Biden" is the highest it has ever been. This is a disingenuous claim since there is a multi year lag between permitting projects and those projects producing oil. The current oil production is a direct result of project permitting that predated Biden. Biden's massive reduction in permit approvals will result in US oil production dropping years from now.

[Thread]

Some truths about gas prices:

Republicans like to blame gas prices on Biden. Oil/Gas are global commodities. The US is currently producing lots of oil, and in fact exports almost 5 million barrels a day to the rest of the world. The US President normally has zero effect on current gas prices. Biden raiding the strategic reserve before the 2022 elections was an aberration. Trump benefited from covid shutdowns temporarily lowering demand and consequently oil and gas prices.

Democrats like to point out that US Oil production "under Biden" is the highest it has ever been. This is a disingenuous claim since there is a multi year lag between permitting projects and those projects producing oil. The current oil production is a direct result of project permitting that predated Biden. Biden's massive reduction in permit approvals will result in US oil production dropping years from now.

Horseshit.

2 dollars a gallon for Trump.
6 dollars for a fuck like Biden.

That's it & that's all.

[SnakeBoy]

Some truths about gas prices:

Republicans like to blame gas prices on Biden. Oil/Gas are global commodities. The US is currently producing lots of oil, and in fact exports almost 5 million barrels a day to the rest of the world. The US President normally has zero effect on current gas prices. Biden raiding the strategic reserve before the 2022 elections was an aberration. Trump benefited from covid shutdowns temporarily lowering demand and consequently oil and gas prices.

Democrats like to point out that US Oil production "under Biden" is the highest it has ever been. This is a disingenuous claim since there is a multi year lag between permitting projects and those projects producing oil. The current oil production is a direct result of project permitting that predated Biden. Biden's massive reduction in permit approvals will result in US oil production dropping years from now.

Another truth about gas prices

Politicians take credit when they're low, they get the blame when they're high. Seems like a fair deal to me.

[Winehole23]

Some truths about gas prices:

Republicans like to blame gas prices on Biden. Oil/Gas are global commodities. The US is currently producing lots of oil, and in fact exports almost 5 million barrels a day to the rest of the world. The US President normally has zero effect on current gas prices. Biden raiding the strategic reserve before the 2022 elections was an aberration. Trump benefited from covid shutdowns temporarily lowering demand and consequently oil and gas prices.

Democrats like to point out that US Oil production "under Biden" is the highest it has ever been. This is a disingenuous claim since there is a multi year lag between permitting projects and those projects producing oil. The current oil production is a direct result of project permitting that predated Biden. Biden's massive reduction in permit approvals will result in US oil production dropping years from now.Makes sense.

What source(s) did you rely on for this post?

[RandomGuy]

Some truths about gas prices:

Republicans like to blame gas prices on Biden. Oil/Gas are global commodities. The US is currently producing lots of oil, and in fact exports almost 5 million barrels a day to the rest of the world. The US President normally has zero effect on current gas prices. Biden raiding the strategic reserve before the 2022 elections was an aberration. Trump benefited from covid shutdowns temporarily lowering demand and consequently oil and gas prices.

Democrats like to point out that US Oil production "under Biden" is the highest it has ever been. This is a disingenuous claim since there is a multi year lag between permitting projects and those projects producing oil. The current oil production is a direct result of project permitting that predated Biden. Biden's massive reduction in permit approvals will result in US oil production dropping years from now.

There are two kinds of Republicans rich guys and suckers.

The rich guys use their propaganda arms to tell the suckers that gas prices are the fault of the president.

Republicans lie all the time about everything these days. They have no ideas, so outrage is all that is left.

It is sad.

[RandomGuy]

Horseshit.

2 dollars a gallon for Trump.
6 dollars for a fuck like Biden.

That's it & that's all.

https://www.creditdonkey.com/gas-price-history.html

LOL nope.

[CosmicCowboy]

There are two kinds of Republicans rich guys and suckers.

The rich guys use their propaganda arms to tell the suckers that gas prices are the fault of the president.

Republicans lie all the time about everything these days. They have no ideas, so outrage is all that is left.

It is sad.

:lmao

You act like that's exclusive to Republicans.

[pgardn]

Another truth about gas prices

Politicians take credit when they're low, they get the blame when they're high. Seems like a fair deal to me.

Its a deal but its not in any way factual.
So it stinks. Bottom llne the real subject can never be truly addressed. That hurts everyone.
Lying has become the first response for the red team under Trump. Thus Snaked unhinges his jaw and swallows it whole.
Working through policy with information you know is WRONG is no way to run a country.
Red team did the same thing with COVID. Still do.

Very important example. Immigration. Both parties will not take the bull by the horns. Same with health care. But the red team has absolutely no solution and does not want one it appears.
You did not like Obamacare, fix it. We have a brand new plan. Nothing. just stomp on Obama care. Democrats did the same with the border and immigration in some ways.

[pgardn]

And the US natural gas industry has hit a very good living now that Russia shot itself in the face.

[SnakeBoy]

The US is currently producing lots of oil, and in fact exports almost 5 million barrels a day to the rest of the world.

We're a net importer so that's a bit misleading. We export because we don't have the refining capacity for the type of oil we produce.

[pgardn]

We're a net importer so that's a bit misleading. We export because we don't have the refining capacity for the type of oil we produce.

Because refining is expensive and not very profitable so we export it.
That could be changed. Easily. We already understand what exporting industry is all about. We are well acquainted with it.

[SnakeBoy]

You did not like Obamacare, fix it.

I didn't like Obamacare initially. However, it ultimately normalized concierge medicine which has been of great benefit to me. Turns out multi-tiered medicine is pretty cool, if you're in the right tier that is. So now I agree with Old Joe, let's just keep things the way they are.

[pgardn]

I didn't like Obamacare initially. However, it ultimately normalized concierge medicine which has been of great benefit to me. Turns out multi-tiered medicine is pretty cool, if you're in the right tier that is. So now I agree with Old Joe, let's just keep things the way they are.

"Its all about me so its fine"
Boomer

oh and Boomer USA USA USA means me, myself and I *Repeat*
At least Snaked admits he is a selfish old fart and in no way a patriot.

Both parties admitted Obamacare was far from perfect. Your team Trump said it had a plan that was better and had NOTHING.

[ElNono]

Some truths about gas prices:

Republicans like to blame gas prices on Biden. Oil/Gas are global commodities. The US is currently producing lots of oil, and in fact exports almost 5 million barrels a day to the rest of the world. The US President normally has zero effect on current gas prices. Biden raiding the strategic reserve before the 2022 elections was an aberration. Trump benefited from covid shutdowns temporarily lowering demand and consequently oil and gas prices.

This is mostly accurate but not entirely true. Oil/Gas is a cartel as well, and they leverage supply for political favor, which largely regulates the price of oil in the global market

Trump was openly cozy with the Saudis, and they have a large say on OPEC+ production numbers (as well as Russia, pre-Ukraine invasion). A well timed supply increase can have a overall positive political effect in the US and other countries.


Democrats like to point out that US Oil production "under Biden" is the highest it has ever been. This is a disingenuous claim since there is a multi year lag between permitting projects and those projects producing oil. The current oil production is a direct result of project permitting that predated Biden. Biden's massive reduction in permit approvals will result in US oil production dropping years from now.

This is correct, and one way the US has been trying to fight off OPEC political interference. Though it also largely predates the previous administration as well, and can be traced back to a set of events from the Arab Spring, which ballooned oil prices and made tech like fracking profitable at that time. Back then (from 2005 to 2015) our net oil imports dropped by 60%, and towards the end of that period, production hit a 44 year high.

[SnakeBoy]

Both parties admitted Obamacare was far from perfect. Your team Trump said it had a plan that was better and had NOTHING.

Not true. McCain killed the chance for change out of pettiness. God sent him to hell for it.

[ElNono]

Not true. McCain killed the chance for change out of pettiness. God sent him to hell for it.

McCain is an american hero. lmao, completely shat on Dennison and freezer Mitch.

[CosmicCowboy]

Makes sense.

What source(s) did you rely on for this post?

I didn't use a "source". I thought it was pretty much common knowledge for reasonably literate people.

[Extra Stout]

:lmao

You act like that's exclusive to Republicans.
“Democrats leave out key pieces of the truth that would lead to a more nuanced argument.

Republicans lie their asses off.” — Chris Rock

[Winehole23]

I didn't use a "source". I thought it was pretty much common knowledge for reasonably literate people.made sense to me.

you have a tendency to hide your sources, for some reason. your narrative is usually weaker, but I can accept you were freewheeling.

[daboom1]

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1702079713622299100?t

[CosmicCowboy]

Get ready for stagflation. All signs seem to point to a shitty 2024.

[Ef-man]

I didn't use a "source". I thought it was pretty much common knowledge for reasonably literate people.

Like cow intestines?

[RandomGuy]

:lmao

You act like that's exclusive to Republicans.

Democrats have actual policies that do things.

Republicans are all about limiting rights, culture war BS and tax cuts for the rich.

Seriously name a republican policy proposal for the economy, other than reducing taxes for huge corporations and the wealthy.

[RandomGuy]

:lmao

You act like that's exclusive to Republicans.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6CciSjWcAAdCC5?format=jpg&name=medium

case in point.

[SnakeBoy]

lol yeah... see Argentina right now, and that still not considered hyperinflation (yet)


Hopefully Javier can turn that shithole around if he can win over the dumbest electorate on the planet.

He did it :lol

1726377537259925795

[Ef-man]

Everybody saves in US dollars over there anyways, despite tight capital controls. Thankful Old Joe saved the US economy from the disaster he inherited from the big loser, tbh


Ole Joe putting in the hours
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1726402826119581823

[ElNono]

He did it :lol

1726377537259925795

He would be considered a RINO here in the US, tbh... :lol

If he can make a dent on the historically rampant corruption, he'll be a savior.

[ElNono]

Ole Joe putting in the hours
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1726402826119581823

Yep... can't think the US is anything but thrilled with this election, tbh...

[scott]

So is the hyperinflation here yet?

[ElNono]

So is the hyperinflation here yet?

(D) President rescuing the economy from (R) fuckups? Sounds like deja vu, tbh...

[Winehole23]

the gripe that official measures of inflation exclude important things people have to spend money on is true.

that said, the current level of US inflation is not abnormal, historically speaking

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_8OOrqXsAAW7gJ?format=jpg&name=small

https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/191077/inflation-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990.jpg

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_8snUVWkAALR81?format=jpg&name=small

[Winehole23]

So is the hyperinflation here yet?that's a bogeyman, allegedly.

according to some of the resident inflation worryers, they never actually said the word "hyperinflation."

[RandomGuy]

So is the hyperinflation here yet?

Nope not yet. (looks at watch) it is early in the day though.

[Thread]

Nope not yet. (looks at watch) it is early in the day though.

It's been here...

Trump: $2 a gallon.
Fuck face Biden: $5 a gallon.

[CosmicCowboy]

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, stood at an over two-year low of 4% in November 2023, unchanged from October, matching market forecasts. The shelter index, accounting for over 70% of the total increase in all items less food and energy, eased to 6.5% in November from 6.7% in the prior month. Other indexes with slower increases over the last year include recreation (+2.5% vs +3.2%), personal care (+5.2% vs +6%), and new vehicles (+1.3% vs +1.9), while prices of motor vehicle insurance remained elevated (+19.2%, the same pace as in October). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose only by 0.3% in November, after a 0.2% increase in October, also in line with market forecasts. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

And what do people HAVE to buy? Food, energy, housing, and insurance.

[ChumpDumper]

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, stood at an over two-year low of 4% in November 2023, unchanged from October, matching market forecasts. The shelter index, accounting for over 70% of the total increase in all items less food and energy, eased to 6.5% in November from 6.7% in the prior month. Other indexes with slower increases over the last year include recreation (+2.5% vs +3.2%), personal care (+5.2% vs +6%), and new vehicles (+1.3% vs +1.9), while prices of motor vehicle insurance remained elevated (+19.2%, the same pace as in October). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose only by 0.3% in November, after a 0.2% increase in October, also in line with market forecasts. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

And what do people HAVE to buy? Food, energy, housing, and insurance.

And they're still buying everything else too.

[RandomGuy]

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, stood at an over two-year low of 4% in November 2023, unchanged from October, matching market forecasts. The shelter index, accounting for over 70% of the total increase in all items less food and energy, eased to 6.5% in November from 6.7% in the prior month. Other indexes with slower increases over the last year include recreation (+2.5% vs +3.2%), personal care (+5.2% vs +6%), and new vehicles (+1.3% vs +1.9), while prices of motor vehicle insurance remained elevated (+19.2%, the same pace as in October). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose only by 0.3% in November, after a 0.2% increase in October, also in line with market forecasts. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

And what do people HAVE to buy? Food, energy, housing, and insurance.

Eyup. That looks to be moderating as well.

Thank Biden. Go on.

[Winehole23]

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, stood at an over two-year low of 4% in November 2023, unchanged from October, matching market forecasts. The shelter index, accounting for over 70% of the total increase in all items less food and energy, eased to 6.5% in November from 6.7% in the prior month. Other indexes with slower increases over the last year include recreation (+2.5% vs +3.2%), personal care (+5.2% vs +6%), and new vehicles (+1.3% vs +1.9), while prices of motor vehicle insurance remained elevated (+19.2%, the same pace as in October). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose only by 0.3% in November, after a 0.2% increase in October, also in line with market forecasts. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

And what do people HAVE to buy? Food, energy, housing, and insurance.as previously stipulated (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=164863&page=10&p=10993128&viewfull=1#post10993128)

are you done clearing your throat, is pointing at the definition of CPI your whole point?

[scott]

I’ll check in on the hyperinflation again next year.