Polls Are Closing - Election Results Thread

[MannyIsGod]

Think Kentucky and Indiana are first to close so I guess should have Rand Paul updates soon. I kinda wish I had paid closer attention to the polls but I guess I"ll just follow along with the results this time.

[Yonivore]

On Drudge right now:


EXIT POLLS:

Arkansas: Boozman (R) defeats Lincoln (D)
Ohio: Portman (R) defeats Fisher (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) defeats Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) defeats Feingold (D)

Could be an ugly night for Democrats...

[CosmicCowboy]

Rand Paul should be a slam dunk.

[Yonivore]

A good sign from Alaska:

Murkowski's husband in voting booth: 'Hon, how do you spell your last name?' (http://www.adn.com/2010/11/02/1532225/murkowskis-husband-hon-how-do.html#storylink=twitter#ixzz14AH0yPiZ)


New York Times reporter William Yardley was in Girdwood this morning as the Murkowski family showed up at the poll to, presumably, write in the incumbent's name on their ballots. First, Sen. Lisa Murkowski left her ID in the car and sent her son to retrieve it; then, as they voted, Murkowski's husband, Verne Martell, joked from his booth, "Hon, how do you spell your last name?"
I bet she kicked his ass all the way home for that snide remark.

[boutons_deux]

Not as ugly for Americans with Repugs having even more obstructive, destructive power.

But as a right-winger, you don't a fuck about America, only about the Repugs winning.

[Yonivore]

A lot of reports of low Democrat turnout.

[CosmicCowboy]

A good sign from Alaska:

Murkowski's husband in voting booth: 'Hon, how do you spell your last name?' (http://www.adn.com/2010/11/02/1532225/murkowskis-husband-hon-how-do.html#storylink=twitter#ixzz14AH0yPiZ)


I bet she kicked his ass all the way home for that snide remark.

Are you kidding? That was like an illegal polling place ad where they spelled it for everyone in the room...

[Yonivore]

Are you kidding? That was like an illegal polling place ad where they spelled it for everyone in the room...
I don't think she responded; except maybe to say, "Shut up, Stupid."

[CosmicCowboy]

I don't think she responded; except maybe to say, "Shut up, Stupid."

Whatever. Sore loser bitch sucks.

[Yonivore]

Whatever. Sore loser bitch sucks.
I hope she loses twice.

Given the way Alaska votes, if it's even close it'll be Christmas before we know.

[Wild Cobra]

On Drudge right now:



Could be an ugly night for Democrats...
Could be very lucky. The best I've seen so far for a democrat in early results is 51%/49%. Most places, republicans have a commanding lead.

[Wild Cobra]

So far, Paul 55% Conway 45%.

[Yonivore]

Boxer is holding on...

[Wild Cobra]

A lot of reports of low Democrat turnout.
I think that's the aspect most polls didn't realize to a full potential. I believe the one poll yesterday that show republicans also taking the senate.

[Wild Cobra]

Could be very lucky. The best I've seen so far for a democrat in early results is 51%/49%. Most places, republicans have a commanding lead.
Correction, Chandler has a good lead over Barr.

[Yonivore]

Exit polls in Florida have Rubio up by 21%

Dayum.

[MannyIsGod]

Every race called so far was expected to go towards the GOP. Nothing suprising as of yet. We'll have to see how the closer races go before you can make any type of deduction on how the night is going to go.

[Yonivore]

Every race called so far was expected to go towards the GOP. Nothing suprising as of yet. We'll have to see how the closer races go before you can make any type of deduction on how the night is going to go.
I think the margins (and the anecdotal stories about massive Republican turnout vs. puny Democrat turnout) in those races is telling but, you're right, we'll have to wait.

[Shelly]

Dan Coats U.S. Senate Indiana (R)

[Shelly]

Rand Paul Kentucky

[Yonivore]

First race called in Indiana on Evan Bayh's old seat. Coats (R) over Ellsworth (D).

And, in Kentucky, Paul (R) over Conway (D).

Both races at more than 10 points each.

[Wild Cobra]

Fox just called a few, Rand Paul being one of the winners.

[Stringer_Bell]

Still too early, I'll check back in 2-3 hours.

[Wild Cobra]

Wow...

House of Representatives. Small percentage of the 435 seats, but 8 called for republicans, only 1 called for democrats.

[baseline bum]

Why the hell would liberal voters show up when the Democrats had their one chance to pass progressive legislation and instead extended the status-quo of corporate welfare that has defined this nation since Reagan?

[Wild Cobra]

Still too early, I'll check back in 2-3 hours.
Me too.

I'm be back in 4-5 hours, maybe...

[Parker2112]

Fox just called a few, Rand Paul being one of the winners.

imagine that...even after all the MSM's attempts on his campaign

[Yonivore]

Well, this explains the low Democrat turnout...

6LKdN1peRqM

...they'll be showing up on Thursday. Doh!

[MannyIsGod]

Yes, the media was out to get Rand Paul. Lets see if Rand can actually get anything meaningful done or if he just becomes another GOP vote.

[Crookshanks]

I know not very many precincts have been counted yet - but some of these races are looking to be a wipeout. Dems are getting beat bad...

[Parker2112]

Yes, the media was out to get Rand Paul. Lets see if Rand can actually get anything meaningful done or if he just becomes another GOP vote.

I want to trust Rand Paul...but I dont. I do trust his Pops, but that goes without saying.

[MannyIsGod]

Ron Paul is one of the few members of the GOP that I would vote for. Don't agree with him on everything, but if we had a bunch of Ron Pauls in office we'd be much better off as a country.

I hope his son is a chip off the old block. Well see.

[MannyIsGod]

I know not very many precincts have been counted yet - but some of these races are looking to be a wipeout. Dems are getting beat bad...

The Dems were expected to get beat badly in man of these races. The important races are the ones that are much closer not the races being won in a blowout.

[Parker2112]

Ron Paul is one of the few members of the GOP that I would vote for. Don't agree with him on everything, but if we had a bunch of Ron Pauls in office we'd be much better off as a country.

I hope his son is a chip off the old block. Well see.

I hope to God your right. Honestly, from the minute I saw him palling around with Jeb at that fundraiser, I got real suspicious.

[Crookshanks]

The Dems were expected to get beat badly in man of these races. The important races are the ones that are much closer not the races being won in a blowout.

True - but in one race in Indiana, the incumbent (D) is getting beat by 18%. There were so many house races, so I don't know what the polls were showing for this district - but it's still pretty bad for the incumbent to be losing by such a large margin.

[MannyIsGod]

fivethirtyeight Nate Silver
Model Raises G.O.P. Projection by One Seat http://nyti.ms/duY5kh Our model now projects a G.O.P. gain of 55-56 House seats. #nytelect

[Crookshanks]

The one House member that Obama personally campaigned for has lost. The guy voted for Obama's agenda all the way down the line - and it cost him his seat.

[Wild Cobra]

I know not very many precincts have been counted yet - but some of these races are looking to be a wipeout. Dems are getting beat bad...
That's what happens when you wake up the complacent silent majority.

[Crookshanks]

Michigan just elected a Republican Governor - things are already looking up for that hard-hit state.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I guess my rand paul post belonged in this thread.

oops

[Cant_Be_Faded]

A lot of reports of low Democrat turnout.

This is why politics in the USA are so predictable. Anyone with the ability to think a thought could have predicted the things that have been said by the media the past year or so.

[Crookshanks]

What's interesting is that many of the races in one state are breaking different ways. Usually if one party wins big in one race, they'll be up in the others also. But Republicans are winning house races with pretty big margins, but those margins are not holding in the Senate and Governor's races.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats not unusual. Senate races are along the entire state while House races are in completely gerrymandered districts.

[George Gervin's Afro]

Thats not unusual. Senate races are along the entire state while House races are in completely gerrymandered districts.

political science 101

[MannyIsGod]

In any event - Sestak race is a big indicator that hardcore progressives still have a lot of pull when motivated. They poured it into that race and they might pull out a nice upset.

That race should serve as a memo to Democrats that if they want to get elected then they'd better actually do constructive.

[Crookshanks]

Thats not unusual. Senate races are along the entire state while House races are in completely gerrymandered districts.

That's true - but I was referring to those races where a republican has or is beating an incumbent democrat by a very significant margin - which would seem to indicate a higher republican turnout.

[Cry Havoc]

:lol

[MannyIsGod]

I found the first point especially interesting:


Election Night Odds and Ends
A few interesting observations:

If Dan Maes (R) doesn't get 10% in Colorado's race for governor, the Republican party will lose major party status which could have implications for the 2012 presidential race if the GOP candidate is listed way down the ballot.

Marco Rubio (R) could possibly win more than 50% of the vote in Florida's three-way U.S. Senate race,

Nikki Haley (R) won an unexpectedly close race for South Carolina governor which will fuel criticisms that national Democrats didn't take the race more seriously.

Early indications suggest it was a good year for pollsters generally.

[Crookshanks]

If Dan Maes (R) doesn't get 10% in Colorado's race for governor, the Republican party will lose major party status which could have implications for the 2012 presidential race if the GOP candidate is listed way down the ballot.
That is interesting - lesson to Republicans: field better candidates!

[Crookshanks]

Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all elected Republican Governors - wonder when the last time that happened.

[MannyIsGod]

New Mexico did too.

[Crookshanks]

Looks like Illinois is going to go down to the wire

[Wild Cobra]

LOL...

Just saw a mistake on Fox news (http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/candidate-list/#state=CA). They list Boxer as the winner after 17% of the precincts reporting. Problem is, they list the tally at 1,247,272 to Florina's 1,248,225!

[Crookshanks]

LOL...

Just saw a mistake on Fox news (http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/candidate-list/#state=CA). They list Boxer as the winner after 17% of the precincts reporting. Problem is, they list the tally at 1,247,272 to Florina's 1,248,225!

It's not a mistake - they're looking at where the votes have been counted and if the remaining precincts are strongholds for Republicans or Democrats. I mean, they projected Boxer the winner as soon as the polls closed.

[MannyIsGod]

Part of me is happy to see a Hispanic woman win the race for NM governor for the fist time. I hope she does a good job and stays away from social issues.

[Crookshanks]

Republicans have just taken the House. They've picked up 53 seats so far. I'm disappointed with the results in the Senate, but hey, overall, it's a good night for Republicans. And, in 2 years, there will be more democrats than republicans up for re-election in the Senate. Hopefully, the Republicans will field some stronger candidates than McMahon, O'Donnell and Angle.

[coyotes_geek]

On a local note, it's looking like republicans are going to end up with a supermajority in the TX state house of reps. They're +20 (in a 150 member house) and counting. Significant redistricting ramifications here.

[MannyIsGod]

They should call Tom Delay up.

[coyotes_geek]

No need. The republican advantage in the state leg. in 2010 is significantly greater than it was back when the repubs needed delay to strong arm people to get their way.

[Wild Cobra]

Yes...

Looks like Kitzhaber is losing in Oregon.

[MannyIsGod]

I fucking hate redistricting games that go on. Incoming Hispanic voters being fucked.

[Wild Cobra]

I fucking hate redistricting games that go on. Incoming Hispanic voters being fucked.
Gotta love Gerrymandering...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RzNA7kJcN-k/TBkEMT2bCNI/AAAAAAAABdE/DJQhNJBS-MA/s1600/Illinois_District_4_2004.png

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT4KND2g0XBzQGE-DlywlrzKHcNTWhHykCj2Z-yOMlMTsahKmo&t=1&usg=__VAxf0M_62PQFzPND2bJY8HERw10=

[DMX7]

I hate it no matter who does it.

[Wild Cobra]

I hate it no matter who does it.
I agree. the only reason I can stomach with making the divisions funny shapes would be to keep all current office holders in their current district when there is an expansion.

[Crookshanks]

Gerrymandering should be against the law. Draw the districts according to counties or zip codes and let the chips fall where they may. No one should be protected - if you're not strong enough to win, then too bad. I have heard that it was originally done to help the minority voters - is that true?

[coyotes_geek]

I fucking hate redistricting games that go on. Incoming Hispanic voters being fucked.

Actually if what's happening to Ciro Rodriguez and Solomon Ortiz is any indication, Hispanic voters might not be the ones who need to worry. Blacks in Houston and Dallas; and residents of Austin on the other hand....................

[MannyIsGod]

Gerrymandering should be against the law. Draw the districts according to counties or zip codes and let the chips fall where they may. No one should be protected - if you're not strong enough to win, then too bad. I have heard that it was originally done to help the minority voters - is that true?

:lol

No. That is most definitely not true. Minorities almost always get fucked by this.

[MannyIsGod]

Gerrymandering should be against the law. Draw the districts according to counties or zip codes and let the chips fall where they may. No one should be protected - if you're not strong enough to win, then too bad. I have heard that it was originally done to help the minority voters - is that true?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Texas_redistricting

[Blackjack]

Not as ugly for Americans with Repugs having even more obstructive, destructive power.

But as a right-winger, you don't a fuck about America, only about the Repugs winning.

No, now they have the means to obstruct. Good talking point, though. :tu

[MannyIsGod]

You're trying to say they didn't have the means to obstruct before?

[Blackjack]

You're trying to say they didn't have the means to obstruct before?

House.

Senate.

Presidency.

If the Democrats believed in their agenda and believed in what they were doing, enough to say the hell with any potential consequence, than they could pass whatever the hell they wanted.

The fight wasn't with Republicans but with Democrats. Centrists or Bluedogs that didn't want to go along, or they were simply unwilling to go it alone.

All the Republicans could do was bitch and moan.

[MannyIsGod]

Per Nate Silver - good Nevada analysis:

1:33 A.M. Why Did Polls Miss on Harry Reid?
The New York Times has just called Nevada for Harry Reid.

Assuming the call was not premature, there is reason to ask why the public polls in the race consistently showed a small lead for Sharron Angle in the final few weeks of the race. Five organizations -- Rasmussen Reports, Mason-Dixon, Public Policy Polling, YouGov, CNN -- polled Nevada in the final three weeks of the campaign, and all showed Ms. Angle ahead among likely voters.

Mr. Reid's campaign was insistent that the public polls were telling the wrong story in Nevada; so was Jon Ralston of The Las Vegas Sun, the state's intrepid political reporter, who boldly (and rightly) predicted that Mr. Reid would win. Private polls showed the race somewhere between a tie and a lead for Mr. Reid, I was told.

I tended to treat these comments a bit skeptically because I wasn't hearing any particular reason why the public polls were wrong. Mr. Reid's campaign talked about the "full ballot test," in which all the candidate names were included -- as well as the option to select "none of the above candidates." But the public pollsters who tested that question showed it made little difference, and Mr. Reid and Ms. Angle collectively have more than 95 percent of the vote so far.

My guess is that the error instead might have been that the polls, in essence, overestimated the enthusiasm gap.

Mr. Reid is a candidate for whom one votes grudgingly -- because his opponent is unacceptable to you, or because Nevada makes it easy to vote early on the way home from your shopping trip, or because his campaign had the money to microtarget you, or because you're a Democrat, and you vote for Democrats. He's not someone you'll necessary be happy about voting for. He's certainly not someone you'll be excited to vote for.

Polls with low response rates will sometimes miss voters like these -- their lack of enthusiasm may be mistaken for disinterest, or they may not pick up the phone in the first place. There's a somewhat analogous phenomenon called the Shy Tory Factor in British elections -- the Tories are not very fashionable, but a lot of people turn out and vote for them nevertheless, and polls there have tended to understate their support.

There could be other reasons as well. Most of Nevada's population are transplants from elsewhere in the United States, and likely voter models sometimes penalize such voters, implicitly or explicitly (by asking a question, for instance, about whether they've voted in their polling place before). And polling in many Western states may miss Spanish-speaking voters.

Nevada polls also underestimated Barack Obama's performance in 2008, so this is a pattern worth keeping in mind the next time there is a competitive race in the state.

[Blackjack]

I think the ol' Tea Party would like to have that Angle one back. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

House.

Senate.

Presidency.

If the Democrats believed in their agenda and believed in what they were doing, enough to say the hell with any potential consequence, than they could pass whatever the hell they wanted.

The fight wasn't with Republicans but with Democrats. Centrists or Bluedogs that didn't want to go along, or they were simply unwilling to go it alone.

All the Republicans could do was bitch and moan.

So if 60 different Senators had been willing to agree on something then the GOP would have had no blocking power.

Great. Considering that rarely happens in reality then we can safely say that the GOP this entire time has possessed the ability to block legislation and has used that ability to do just that.

You should not accuse someone else of using a talking point if you're doing that exact thing, Blackjack. You can safely acknowledge what GOP leaders have for the past 2 years: their plan was to be obstructionist all the way. It worked, why are you hiding from it? Shame?

[Blackjack]

I'm just thankful I get the adolescent, immature and corny satisfaction to know Crapo will be on the floor of the US Senate.

So lame, yet awesome.

Go Idaho! :elephant

[Blackjack]

So if 60 different Senators had been willing to agree on something then the GOP would have had no blocking power.

Great. Considering that rarely happens in reality then we can safely say that the GOP this entire time has possessed the ability to block legislation and has used that ability to do just that.

You should not accuse someone else of using a talking point if you're doing that exact thing, Blackjack. You can safely acknowledge what GOP leaders have for the past 2 years: their plan was to be obstructionist all the way. It worked, why are you hiding from it? Shame?

It's a fact. It's pure numbers, that's all.

If the Dems were on the same page and the policies and agenda items they had were deemed to be good and helpful to the people and country as a whole, they had the means to pass whatever the hell they wanted.

Just because something "never" happens doesn't mean the minority is the obstructionist. The fight's within whomever is the majority at the time, not the minority.

What kind of Republican support did they get for health-care?

[MannyIsGod]

Notice a keyword in your posts Blackjack. If.

I'm not denying that if the Democrats were one solidified voting bloc in the Senate it wouldn't have mattered what the GOP did or didn't do.

Now, we come back to reality where thats not the case. Each Senator has one vote regardless of party affiliation. The GOP's stated plan was to be obstructionist. They were. They didn't try to solve any problems through legislation. They played politics the entire two years with a goal of making sure to pass no legislation and to prevent legislation from being passed.

There's nothing to debate when party leaders come out and say they are going to obstruct and then do so. That they could have been prevented had the planets aligned is irrelevant.

[MannyIsGod]

More Nate Silver:

2:38 A.M. Math Favors Murray in Washington
The Washington Senate race is a tricky one and we may not know the winner for several days -- after more mail ballots have been counted. But Patty Murray, the Democrat, is favored to hold on to her seat. Seattle's King County, which had been slightly overrepresented earlier in the night, is now somewhat underrepresented instead with 55 percent of its vote counted compared with about 70 percent elsewhere in the state. An extrapolation of county-by-county results would have Ms. Murray eventually winning by about 1.5 points; she leads by 1 point now.

[MannyIsGod]

@fivethirtyeight
Nate Silver
The Oregon governor race is gonna be really close. A county-by-country extrapolation would give it to Kitzhaber by <1 point.

hahahahahahahhahahahahaha suck it WC

[Blackjack]

Notice a keyword in your posts Blackjack. If.

I'm not denying that if the Democrats were one solidified voting bloc in the Senate it wouldn't have mattered what the GOP did or didn't do.

Now, we come back to reality where thats not the case. Each Senator has one vote regardless of party affiliation. The GOP's stated plan was to be obstructionist. They were. They didn't try to solve any problems through legislation. They played politics the entire two years with a goal of making sure to pass no legislation and to prevent legislation from being passed.

There's nothing to debate when party leaders come out and say they are going to obstruct and then do so. That they could have been prevented had the planets aligned is irrelevant.

I don't make a point to stick up for politicians or either of these two parties. I've never affiliated myself with either. They both play the same bullshit games, find their own talking points, keywords and phrases, and so on.

Fact of the matter is, the reason you don't usually see things jammed through when the opportunity arises is because they're not rulers but public servants. They often don't remember that until their ass is on the line for the next election, but it usually dons on them around that time.

So if either party's intention was to just do what they believe was in the best interests of their constituents and get things done, they would. They wouldn't be calling the minority obstructionists because those obstructionists would find themselves becoming insignificant with each passing election.

It's a simple game of cat and mouse, the sole purpose being to maintain power.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't know why you think obstructionism will cost someone an election considering what you just witnessed tonight. If you're obstructionist and you're not held accountable then you lose nothing.

Welcome to the 2010 general election.

[Wild Cobra]

More Nate Silver:

2:38 A.M. Math Favors Murray in Washington
The Washington Senate race is a tricky one and we may not know the winner for several days -- after more mail ballots have been counted. But Patty Murray, the Democrat, is favored to hold on to her seat. Seattle's King County, which had been slightly overrepresented earlier in the night, is now somewhat underrepresented instead with 55 percent of its vote counted compared with about 70 percent elsewhere in the state. An extrapolation of county-by-county results would have Ms. Murray eventually winning by about 1.5 points; she leads by 1 point now.
Yes, she leads by 0.98% of the vote so far with 62% reporting.

However, you may be right. With the way King County elections officials cheated in 2008, if the same thing happens again, Rossi will lose. I think it's being closely watched this time though.

@fivethirtyeight
Nate Silver
The Oregon governor race is gonna be really close. A county-by-country extrapolation would give it to Kitzhaber by <1 point.

hahahahahahahhahahahahaha suck it WC
I find that hard to believe. With 85% in, Dudley Doright is over Kitzhaber by 1.6%.

[EricB]

I think its crazy that Maine, Florida's GOV races have not been completed yet.

[BlairForceDejuan]

Boxer won :(

But at least Grayson has to GTFO.

[Crookshanks]

I think its crazy that Maine, Florida's GOV races have not been completed yet.

Florida was called about 30 minutes ago. Scott won - and since Sink conceded, it doesn't look like there will be a recount.

[TheProfessor]

Boxer won :(

But at least Grayson has to GTFO.
Grayson's gone, but Bachmann stays, and will probably run for the #3 position in the House. Good God.

[DarrinS]

I can't believe these douchebags remain in office:

Boxer
Reid
Barney Frank

At least Grayson got his ass handed to him.

[Crookshanks]

The Tea-Party backed Republican has won the governorship in Maine.

[Wild Cobra]

I can't believe these douchebags remain in office:

Boxer
Reid
Barney Frank

At least Grayson got his ass handed to him.
I think we need to look into the voting machines programming before anyone can restore the original programs.

[Spursmania]

I think we need to look into the voting machines programming before anyone can restore the original programs.

Damn right. Still a phenomenal night! Don't let the door hit you in the Ass Pelosi.:lol

[Wild Cobra]

Damn right. Still a phenomenal night! Don't let the door hit you in the Ass Pelosi.:lol
Liberals kept harping on the fallacy of the machines. Why can't we get their support on checking them out now?

[Spursmania]

Liberals kept harping on the fallacy of the machines. Why can't we get their support on checking them out now?

We know the answer to that: UNIONS

[Nbadan]

Unions?

:lmao

[Blackjack]

I don't know why you think obstructionism will cost someone an election considering what you just witnessed tonight. If you're obstructionist and you're not held accountable then you lose nothing.

Welcome to the 2010 general election.

Because the electorate was voting against the incumbent. And if the new House majority doesn't produce any legislation or show any great effort to be legitimate public servants and tackle the spending and size of government issues that led them to reject the policies of this president and his party, they'll be voted out and replaced by people that will get elected on a platform that calls them out for not doing so -- forcing them to address the issues or be a one-term servant.

In that regard, I'm somewhat encouraged with the outcome. Maybe after a few election cycles we'll actually have the type of representation one can respect and even find admirable -- the problem isn't Democrat or Republican, it's with the people that inhabit the parties.

It's easy to find arguments for issues and policies, there will always be philosophical disagreements, but it's hard for me to find much disagreement that Democratic and Republican leadership has been inept, corrupt and anything but public servants for a long while now. The nation as a whole hasn't held them accountable. Hopefully the electorate will stay as involved as it has been recently.

Because in the end, if you're asleep at the wheel and allow the same old-same old to keep going on, you kinda get what you deserve.