The 43 point quarter - and a prediction

[GSH]

Some of the columnists and commentators are downplaying the Spurs win because they "had to have a 43-point quarter". (A few have also mentioned that they had to have 48 points from Manu to beat the Suns earlier this year.) Well, first of all, what about the 43 points the Spurs had in the fourth quarter yesterday? The Spurs and Suns have played four times this season. The highest single-quarter total for either team was the 43-points by the Spurs yesterday. The second highest quarter in the series? The Spurs own that one too - they scored 40 points against the Suns in the fourth quarter in January. How about the third highest quarter? In March, the Suns scored 36 points in the first quarter... then the Spurs came back and scored 36 in the third quarter. I don't know why it should surprise anyone that the Spurs put up a lot of points against the Suns. The fewest points the Spurs have scored against the Suns in a game this year was 101 - and in that game the Spurs were without Tim, Manu, and Nazr. In the other 3 games, they have averaged 116 points against Phoenix.

Defensively? The fewest points scored by either team in a quarter this season was 15 - by the Suns. The Spurs also held the Suns to 18, 19, and 20 points in three other quarters of games this season. Until yesterday, the most points the Suns had scored against the Spurs (in regulation) was 111 points - and the Spurs were without Duncan that game. Their second highest total against the Spurs was 107 (the game without Tim, Manu, and Nazr). And you can't forget that the only time the Spurs have played the Suns at home this year, the Spurs held them to 94 points and generally kicked their asses all over the court.

Yeah, the Spurs got a big game from Barry yesterday - but the Suns are a team that can give up a big game. And when they talk about the 48 that Manu had earlier in the year, they forget that Marion had his best game of the regular season (37 points) in that same game. Manu scoring 48 against the Suns is no more surprsing than Marion scoring 37 against the Spurs. (In his other three games against the Spurs, Marion scored 18, 6, and 3 points.)

Yesterday there were basically 4 minutes in the 2nd quarter (PHX +7) and 4 minutes in the 3rd quarter (PHX +9) where the Spurs took some poor shots, and the Suns made them pay for it. The Spurs were +23 for the other 40 minutes of the game. The Suns will have their scoring spurts, but heads-up the Spurs have been the better team all season long. Yesterday's game was no exception.

I know I'll catch a lot of crap for saying it - but I think the Spurs are going to sweep. Not because of the game yesterday, but because of the whole season. If the Spurs don't sustain any more injuries, I think the Spurs bench will just wear Phoenix out. I don't think Joe Johnson will be able to be a factor if/when he comes back, and Barbosa, Hunter, Voshkul, and McCarty aren't going to beat the Spurs. I'll say it again - until yesterday, the most the Suns have scored in regulation against the Spurs is 111... and the only time the Spurs have scored less than 111 against the Suns was when they were missing Tim, Manu, and Nazr.

If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to come back and say so.

Spurs in 4.

[mookie2001]

even i could score 20 against the suns
7-12 FG
6-8 FT
easy

[bejanicek]

man GSH, you throw out some great numbers. i love reading your posts.

[Dingle Barry]

the only problem with that is that nash is playing out of his mind, like a true offensive MVP, and he wasn't exactly playing like this during the regular season.

[SPARKY]

A way to look at it is that the Spurs can successfully execute on the offensive side of the court which is their weaker side, while the Suns struggle to execute on the defensive side. The Suns couldn't stop the Spurs offense in the 4th. Perhaps it was fatigue, as there is a good argument for that. But we've seen the same in the regular season.

The Spurs are a much more well-rounded team and it's showing.

[T Park]

I thought Shawn Marion said they DON'T get fatigued???

Spurs are just AS tired as they are, so fatigue is BS imo.

[SPARKY]

The Spurs didn't play a 53 minute road game on Friday night and then used a 7 man rotation on Sunday afternoon.

[MiNuS]

only way Spurs can lose is if they go on a 4th quarter shooting drought.

Spurs should be going to the SBC 2-0.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

That's a bold statement, and I must applaud you for actually backing your statement up. There are far too many homers around here who will predict a sweep based on nothing more than the fact that they are spurs fans. Nice take, and I hope you're right.

[Clandestino]

man GSH, you throw out some great numbers. i love reading your posts.
no shit! who is this guy... you need to be a statistician!

keep 'em coming!

[nkdlunch]

Good info. It changes my mind a little about the possibility of a sweep, which I though at first to be impossible. But I still think the Spurs will lose 1 or 2 games this series.

If you look at these playoffs, the Spurs have had at least 1 if not 2 horrible games in each of the previous 2 series. This most likely will happen again this series. A sweep would be great though, a slap in the face at the NBA and media who love this Suns "pretty" basketball.

[PM5K]

The Spurs didn't play a 53 minute road game on Friday night and then used a 7 man rotation on Sunday afternoon.

They choose to run a seven man rotation. And the Spurs did play the night before and got injuries to both Tim and Manu.

Let's not make any bullshit excuses....

[T Park]

BTW, fantastic post by GSH.

Sure gives you alot of faith going into game 2 eh?

[MadDog73]

The Spurs didn't play a 53 minute road game on Friday night and then used a 7 man rotation on Sunday afternoon.


Tim played 40 minutes on a sprained ankle (or two).

Yet, he doesn't complain. Even if they lost, Tim wouldn't have used his ankle as an excuse.

[SPARKY]

Whoa, I guess I deviated from the script.

Spurs rule, Suns have no chance, blah blah blah

[bigzak25]

i think sweep talk is ridiculous. i think a 7 game series is more likely.

but i hope you guys are right, a well rested spurs team would be nice going into the finals.

i hope the spurs don't get too comfy with the lack of D played by phoenix, cuz detroit will bring it just as good as our Spurs will in that dept.

[GSH]

the only problem with that is that nash is playing out of his mind, like a true offensive MVP, and he wasn't exactly playing like this during the regular season.

The last 3 games against the Mavs, Nash was incredible. He may have gotten juiced about winning the MVP. Maybe he was juiced about playing his old team - or maybe it was his inside knowledge of the Mavs. But prior to that, his numbers in the playoffs didn't look especially different than the regular season.

With the exception of those three games against Dallas, yesterday's game was Nash's second best of the season. (I'm counting 29 points and 13 assists as better than 30 points and 9 assists.) Stoudamire was an animal yesterday, and Jim Jackson got his numbers, plus some. (Or Joe Johnson's numbers, plus some, if you prefer.) The Suns still lost.

If Shawn Marion had been hitting shots yesterday (assuming Bruce allowed him to) he would have been taking his shots from someone else. And it's not like those other guys weren't knocking 'em down - the Suns shot .489 from the floor, and .400 from the 3-point line... better than Marion's numbers for the year, and better than the overall team averages for the year. They would have needed for Marion to be shooting well AND more possessions.

The Suns can say whatever they want to, but they brought their "A" game yesterday. Their 8-man rotation was always vulnerable to an injury, and they got one in the playoffs. Amare shot 62% from the floor yesterday, Nash shot 55%, and Jackson shot 50% from the floor and from the 3-point line. I don't know how much more they can "step it up". And I think the Spurs have a lot more adjustments available then the Suns.

I think the Suns have to play a nearly flawless game to beat the Spurs - and the Spurs aren't going to make that easy to do, unless the refs go crazy with the whistles.

Of course that's juse my opinion... I could be wrong.

[1Parker1]

GSH, great post as always.

However, my contention with why the Spurs most likely will not SWEEP the Suns is this: This is the first time in over 12 years, that the Spurs had 4 players score 20+ points. Tony scoring 29 points, Duncan, 28, Barry 21, Manu 20 and throw in Horry's 12--and yet Suns were still in the game before that 4Q spurt. Also, what are the chances that the SPurs will score 72% of their FG in the 4th again? Highly unlikely based on past games where Spurs have been known to go on offensive droughts--See Game 1 against Denver.

Also, look back at how the Suns came back in the 3rd Q--they did it by playing the way they have all season, running down the court fast and shooting before all the defenders can get there and also through some crazy ass assists by Nash. Spurs were fortunate their shots were falling in the 4th and their defensive trained minds helped them eventually slow down the Suns.

Clearly both sides have room for improvement, but a sweep in the WC against a team that's won 62 games is highly unlikely. Knowing the Spurs, they may come on lackluster on Tuesday---hopefully I'm wrong. I'm not saying we won't win the series-I'm just saying that a sweep seems improbable---although it would be sweet! :)

[GSH]

GSH, great post as always.
Also, what are the chances that the SPurs will score 72% of their FG in the 4th again?

I don't know, 1Parker1. I guess it would depend on what kind of shots the Suns gave them; but I would say the chances are good. (Before you react - read on.) The only real surprise in the fourth was Barry knocking down back-to-back 3-pointers. Horry was 1-2 from the 3-point line, which I think he could do in just about any game. That accounts for 9 of the 43 points.

In the fourth quarter, Parker had 4 layups, Duncan had 1 layup and 1 dunk, Barry had 1 layup and 1 easy jumper after Horry got an offensive rebound. Those were all shots that I would expect them to make close to 100% of the time. They account for 16 of the 43 points the Spurs scored in the fourth quarter.

Duncan made 4 shots (I'm pretty sure it was 4) in the paint from close range, and Ginobili made another very high percentage (for him anyway) jumper in the paint. That's another 10 easy points out of the 43 they scored.

Ginobili took the ball right to the rack twice, and Duncan once, and the Suns fouled, rather than giving up sure buckets. I think all three of those shots counted as misses, and actually lowered the Spurs' shooting percentage in the fourth. The only thing that surprised me was that none of them rolled in, to give "and-one" opportunities. They made 7 of the 8 free throws, leaving only the 1 other free throw that Parker (with nods to AHP) finally made.

Barry made those two three-pointers. But the Spurs also missed several other shots that were relatively easy, plus the shots by Manu and Duncan at the rim that they make about half the time. As sick as it is to say, the Spurs' shooting percentage in the fourth quarter could easily have been higher.

Could the Spurs shoot 72% of their FG in the fourth quarter again? If they got the same number of layups, dunks, and points in the paint, I would be shocked if they didn't at least come close.

BTW - if the Spurs do come out lackluster on Tuesday, they will lose. And I will be surprised and disappointed.

[Hook Dem]

the only problem with that is that nash is playing out of his mind, like a true offensive MVP, and he wasn't exactly playing like this during the regular season.
And he will be welcomed back to earth by the Spurs. I disagree with you about the regular season. Thats how he got the votes for MVP. By the way, I don't disagree with his selection as such.

[1Parker1]

I don't know, 1Parker1. I guess it would depend on what kind of shots the Suns gave them; but I would say the chances are good. (Before you react - read on.) The only real surprise in the fourth was Barry knocking down back-to-back 3-pointers. Horry was 1-2 from the 3-point line, which I think he could do in just about any game. That accounts for 9 of the 43 points.

In the fourth quarter, Parker had 4 layups, Duncan had 1 layup and 1 dunk, Barry had 1 layup and 1 easy jumper after Horry got an offensive rebound. Those were all shots that I would expect them to make close to 100% of the time. They account for 16 of the 43 points the Spurs scored in the fourth quarter.

Duncan made 4 shots (I'm pretty sure it was 4) in the paint from close range, and Ginobili made another very high percentage (for him anyway) jumper in the paint. That's another 10 easy points out of the 43 they scored.

Ginobili took the ball right to the rack twice, and Duncan once, and the Suns fouled, rather than giving up sure buckets. I think all three of those shots counted as misses, and actually lowered the Spurs' shooting percentage in the fourth. The only thing that surprised me was that none of them rolled in, to give "and-one" opportunities. They made 7 of the 8 free throws, leaving only the 1 other free throw that Parker (with nods to AHP) finally made.

Barry made those two three-pointers. But the Spurs also missed several other shots that were relatively easy, plus the shots by Manu and Duncan at the rim that they make about half the time. As sick as it is to say, the Spurs' shooting percentage in the fourth quarter could easily have been higher.

Could the Spurs shoot 72% of their FG in the fourth quarter again? If they got the same number of layups, dunks, and points in the paint, I would be shocked if they didn't at least come close.

BTW - if the Spurs do come out lackluster on Tuesday, they will lose. And I will be surprised and disappointed.


LOL. The way you laid out each of the plays makes it seem as if the Spurs shooting 72% in the 4th was completely normal! :)

Seriously though, on the flip side, you need to consider the fact that Suns may not shoot under 50% again. If you noticed in the 3rd quarter when they got their lead, they controlled the tempo and shot the ball so early in the shot clock that they often had many open looks. Suns took a long time adjusting in the 1st quarter of the game to the Spurs defense (understandable after not seeing it in the first two rounds). I don't expect the Suns to be held under 20 in the first--Amare was held to 2 points, and he had some pretty good looks at the basket. Marion, I don't expect to have another 2 point performance either.

Although you pose some great arguments, I just feel that as great as the Spurs played in game 1, they only won by about 6 points, and if it were not for the offensive rebound off of Parker's missed FT at the end, Suns could have gotten it to within 3. My point being that despite Spurs controlling the tempo for most of the game, playing as good a defense as you can against the Suns, scoring 43 points on 72% FG shooting in the 4th, despite Marion only scoring 3 points---the game was still within reach at the end.

Game 2, I was factoring in the fact that Suns are playing at home, know they have their backs against the walls, are going to come out strong and ready to run run run. Spurs have been very up and down this season, playing great one night and then coming out without energy the next. I just think it's crazy to say that Spurs can sweep a team that has won 62 games in the regular season, has the leagues MVP, a stud center in Amare, great 3 point shooters in Marion and Jackson, COY in D'Antoni. Maybe they don't deserve all these accolades, but they did get to the NBA's best record somehow. Spurs had trouble closing out against an injury depleted Sonics team. Although they have shown heart and poise at times throughout these playoff's, this is the Western Conference Finals---and a sweep just seems to easy.

But hey, if I'm wrong, and Spurs do win tommorow and sweep---I will be the first to proclaim you the new Nostradamus of the Forum :).....Sorry Jimbo :spin

[TwoHandJam]

Seriously though, on the flip side, you need to consider the fact that Suns may not shoot under 50% again. If you noticed in the 3rd quarter when they got their lead, they controlled the tempo and shot the ball so early in the shot clock that they often had many open looks. Suns took a long time adjusting in the 1st quarter of the game to the Spurs defense (understandable after not seeing it in the first two rounds). I don't expect the Suns to be held under 20 in the first--Amare was held to 2 points, and he had some pretty good looks at the basket. Marion, I don't expect to have another 2 point performance either. If the Suns shoot over 50% for the game then the Spurs defense clearly will be lacking. If the Suns figured us out as you say in the 3rd quarter then how come they collapsed in the 4th so badly?

I agree with GSH that Phoenix did indeed bring their A game for the most part. Amare scoring over 40 points was very unusual considering that most of them were on jumpers as the Spurs did a great job in denying him dunks off the p'n'r with Nash. If we continue denying him dunks and layups, I would be very surprised if he's that efficient again.

Nash played a stellar game as well but I think that was more by design. I feel that the Spurs took a page from the way AJ played Nash by denying him a p'n'r partner for the most part and daring him to score. He still totaled 13 assists but some of those passes were pretty sick. I don't think he could keep that up for an entire series.

I'm not sure we'll sweep the Suns but I'm pretty confident that we're the better team and should prove it in the long run. I have a feeling our depth will play a pretty big factor in it when all is said and done.

[GSH]

LOL. The way you laid out each of the plays makes it seem as if the Spurs shooting 72% in the 4th was completely normal! :)


Wow! Somebody expressed a different opinion by just... expressing a different opinion. Cool.

I was beginning to think there was some kind of forum rule that you were required to call my ideas stupid, or resort to name-calling. I really like your approach a lot better. I won't even hate coming back and saying you were right and I was wrong, if it turns out that way.

There is a good case to be made for everything you said. And, for the record, I think the Suns deserve all the accolades; and they won 62 games by being a damned good team. I just think the Spurs have the best of the Suns - especially with Joe Johnson injured. We'll have to wait and see how it turns out.

Regardless of who wins how many games, I don't think it's any fluke that they held the Suns to 20 in the first quarter. The Spurs have held them to 20 or less four times in four games. That isn't a fluke.

And the 72% shooting percentage is no fluke, when the Suns give up that many layups and dunks. I don't care if it's the Suns, or the New Orleans Hornets - it's a math function. If you give a team 7 shots that are basically 100-percenters (layups and dunks), they only have to shoot 7-13 for the rest of the quarter to shoot 70% overall. Suns... Hornets... whoever - no defense is no defense.

I guess the thing that bugs me is that people seem to forget that the Spurs are a pretty damned good team too. They only won 3 fewer games than the Suns, and they were without the best player in the league for what? 17 games?

Ahhh hell. Enough of that. We'll see what happens on the court. But like I said, I appreciate being able to disagree without all the nastiness.

[ambchang]

No, you are not going to get crap for saying Spurs in 4, because there are quite a few Spurs fan who believe this could happen. But I am going to be conservative, Spurs in 5, 6 max, because you know how Parker is going to throw in at least one shitty game in a 7 game series.

[1Parker1]

"I won't even hate coming back and saying you were right and I was wrong, if it turns out that way."


I know you're new around here, so I'll try to break this to you gently.

.............I am always right! :)

[Solid D]

Some very good stats and observations, GSH.

At the heart of the Spurs beating the Suns is taking Nash out of his comfort zone and restricting what he does. That has been common to all of the Spurs wins. In quarters where Nash is stirring the drink for the Suns, the Suns have their way offensively. When the Spurs have clamped down and trapped Steve or doubled hard on him, the Spurs have gotten stops or turnovers. When the Spurs went to a small lineup in the OT game in January, with Udrih, Gino, Barry, Devin and Tim playing almost the entire 4th qtr. and extra period, the Spurs really bothered Nash. Nash turned it over 5 times during that stretch, with the Spurs' smalls (Udrih, Barry, Brown getting the steals out of their pressure. Nash scored once, on a 3-pointer, during the entire 4th and OT. That is also a good passing lineup offensively...creating more open shots.

A similar defensive strategy on Nash was saved for the 4th quarter on Sunday from a pressure standpoint. The Spurs didn't go small, but they did end the 3rd and start the qtr. with Udrih, Gino, Barry, Horry and Tim and were able to erase the Suns 3rd qtr. 7 pt. lead. Beno has done a fairly nice job positionally with Nash and when paired on doubles from guys like Horry, Gino or Barry, Nash has coughed it up a few times. Parker less so, until Pop got after Tony to get up into Nash. (Remember when Pop did the same with TP in December to turn that game around?) Fortunately, Parker was able to exploit Nash's lack of D on the offensive end on Sunday.

So whether a big or small lineup is employed, pressuring Nash, trapping Nash and exploiting his lack of D is a winning formula...particularly in the second half.

[1Parker1]

"Nash has coughed it up a few times. Parker less so, until Pop got after Tony to get up into Nash. (Remember when Pop did the same with TP in December to turn that game around?) Fortunately, Parker was able to exploit Nash's lack of D on the offensive end on Sunday."

How do you all think Parker's Defense on Nash was? I thought he could have done a better job. Nash got the same jump shots every time throughout the game...right inside the foul line on both the left and right side. Tony often got a little caught behind the screens and then the other SPurs weren't fast enough to catch onto Nash. Towards the end when they doubled Nash right from the start, making him pass crazy shots to his team-mates--that worked out really well. Hopefully they will do that again tonight.

[boutons]

" they will do that again tonight."

I figure that 4th qtr nastily effecitive ambush of Steve has got to give the Suns nightmares, a large shadow of a doubt on their 1st 3 qtrs tonight. It should be used juidiciously, like trying to shut them down in the late 4th where they have won so many games they have trailed in for 3.5 qtrs.

[Solid D]

How do you all think Parker's Defense on Nash was?

Not very good. The third quarter lead the Suns got was during some of TP's worst moments. He got up into Steve when he came back in with 8 minutes left in the game.

[MadDog73]

I strongly believe that tonight's game is going to be a very close one 'til the end. It is going to be decided by free throws, and Tim Duncan is going to win it in the FT Line. Score: Spurs 95 / Suns 90
It is going to be a very "physical" game and I will not be surprised if there are at least two flagrant foul calls. :eyebrows


I really don't see that. PHX doesn't have the luxory of having a lot of big men to throw at Tim... plus, if they slow the game down, it favors the Spurs.

Mike D'Antoni actually said they need to score even more points. It should be another fast-paced, high scoring game tonight. I expect a close game too, with a buzzer-beating ending.

[boutons]

" It is going to be a very "physical" game"

The Spurs don't play that physical, so you aren't talking about them.

So you think Mike is so deperate that he will drop his no-defense/no-foul wimp game and get physical?