Does DRob's Transition Predict Tim's?

[buttsR4rebounding]

It is obvious that Duncan is not going to be the dominate player he once was. He will have spurts of dominance, but not continuous. Duncan will turn 35 this year and it appears that his career may mirror DRob's. When DRob was 34 he averaged 18 and 10. Last year Duncan averaged 18 and 9.6. If it does occur then Robinson's last 3 years looked like this:

35...14 and 9 w/ 2.5 blocks playing 29 minutes
36...12 and 8 w/ 1.8 blocks playing 29 minutes
37...8.5 and 8 w/ 1.7 blocks playing 26 minutes.

It is a limited sample size, but so far this year Tim has averaged 13.4 and 9.2 w/ 2 blocks playing 29 minutes a game. Just like Robinson at the end of his career Tim seems destined to have his impact felt more on the defensive end during the rest of his career which judging from the make up of the rest of the team may be enough to get him another ring.

[ChuckD]

He's been sick with the flu or recovering for 3 games out of 9, so far. I think he was like at 18/11 before that, and that's probably going to be his numbers for the regular season, as they save him for the playoffs.

[Jess]

Better question: do Timmy's teammates sense his career is closing and want to send him out with another 'ship? It's powerful motivation IMO, considering '03 with Robinson and '07 with Finley.

[JWest596]

Duncan's numbers will increased when he is ignored...that will be his and the teams' strength. He is still capable of carrying the team and doing good things, his IQ and skill set hasn't changed....I see nothing that says this isn't so. He just doesn't have to anymore nor does he have the minutes..which is according to Pop's plan.

His numbers have and will probably go down but DROB had some real lingering injuries that permanently limited his amazing athleticism. There is a comparison but I think there is a disconnect from it as well. When Tim's knees really bother him and his play...I'll agree. DROB also got 17 rebounds in his final NBA game...pretty good for an old fart.

[CubanMustGo]

As JWest596 stated, DRob had a very bad back which limited his effectiveness the last several years. Any comparison with a relatively healthy TD isn't valid.

[boutons_deux]

We'll see if Tim's chronic tendenosis (left knee, braced) will bring him down the way DRob's back brought DRob down.

[duncan228]

Put this in the 'Tim Duncan's role' thread (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=166000), seems to fit here too.


Duncan struggling through historic slump (http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2010/11/14/duncan-struggling-through-historic-slump/)
by Tim Griffin

...Despite weathering flu-like symptoms last week, Duncan’s statistical production has fallen to levels unknown in his 14-season NBA career.

...Duncan saw David Robinson go through the same changes late in his career. Robinson was able to morph into a different kind of player who helped the Spurs win an NBA title in his final season in 2003.

...Duncan’s offense is nice to have, but Gregg Popovich can turn a lot of ways to get points from this team. His most important role for the team will be as a leader, along with exhibiting the same formidable defensive and rebounding skills that have helped the Spurs win four NBA titles in his certain Hall of Fame career.

http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2010/11/14/duncan-struggling-through-historic-slump/

[YODA]

Someone stated how David's back was an issue, which was true. He also was a very atheletic center for years and relied alot on it. Tim on the other hand wouldnt be called antheletic, but funtamentally sound all around. Because He doesnt rely on on being an athellic, Tim can probably last much longer in this league.

[JWest596]

DROB was a beast athletically at his best that Duncan never was. IMO, DROB was the only center that gave prime Shaq a run for the roses. Shaq knew this as well.

[Mark in Austin]

Duncan's numbers will increased when he is ignored...that will be his and the teams' strength.

I disagree. Duncan is at his best offensively when he's being doubled and can read the defense and dissect it. When he's being defended one on one he is not nearly as effective unless he's really rolling.

For the Spurs to be effective as Duncan declines, they need to keep doing what they're doing so far this year. If a team isn't doubling Duncan, the ball needs to move. Death for this team comes when they're dumping it in to Duncan hoping that he bails them out and the double never comes to free up the shooters.

Let's face it, the only thing that really matters is how this team matches up with the Lakers. And unless Gasol is injured, odds are he'll be able to defend Duncan one on one. The Spurs need to continue to diversify the offense to get ready for what they'll face in the playoffs. If the defense comes along and things continue like they have so far this season offensively, I like their chances. :tu

[Roger Freemason Jr.]

Perhaps history will repeat itself, in the sense that DRob took Duncan under his wing, so hopefully Duncan will take Splitter under his. The upside is that Duncan has plenty more time to help Splitter become his fundamental doppelganger. Splitters minutes are limited now, but every time he steps out on the court, he shows improvement. Hopefully history repeats itself, with Duncan retiring with another ring, in Splitter's second year, or better year, one this year too.

[Roger Freemason Jr.]

need to work on my proof-reading. fuck it.

[fantasyfootball]

Tiago isn't a torch bearing kind of guy. It will end at David to Tim unless the Spurs get a phenom in the draft.

David was much, much better than Tim in his latter years. David - even in his last 2 years - had top 3 center athleticism. David also gave a lot more effort in games. Tim relies much more on being crafty to get his way on the court. I think he's to the point now where he literally doesn't jump off the ground. The most I've seen him do on rebounds and blocks is stretch really hard.

Dave was still controlling the paint when his career ended.

MarkInAustin is right about single Tim. It's been true for a long time that Tim needs the double team more than teams need to double team Tim. 1-1 Tim struggles to score now so it's good the Spurs not rely on him now. Pau Gasol will eat his lunch in the playoffs if he tries to post him up.

[BillMc]

DROB was a beast athletically at his best that Duncan never was. IMO, DROB was the only center that gave prime Shaq a run for the roses. Shaq knew this as well.

While I completely agree with you about David, you forget that Hakeem kicked Shaq's ass in a finals and was always a better defender. Still, you are so right that David is underrated. But at least he's remembered, I sometimes wonder if Duncan will be remembered outside of Texas and the NBA hard core.

Back to Tim's role. As others have said, Tim's offense is nice to have, but others can score on this team. His defense is what we need now as he ages. Much like late period Wilt with the Lakers. Let others score, he can be the monster in the middle.

I do wonder how long Tim will play. If the lockout next years happens to wipe out the season, are we seeing Duncan's last year????

[NickiRasgo]

Good ol' times. :(

[Blackjack]

Tim Duncan slumping because his midrange game has deserted him (http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/16/tim-duncan-slumping-because-his-midrange-game-has-deserted-him/)
Kurt Helin

Tim Duncan has not scored in double digits for three straight games.

For Duncan, that is career first. It’s shocking. The guy is an automatic double-double machine, one of the best basketball players walking the face of the earth — even if people don’t know his name.

But this season he has been off, and the last three games in particular it has been bad (in part due to recovery from the flu). He admitted as much to the Express-News.


“I wish I was playing well and could say I was happy about not playing a lot of minutes,” said Duncan, his scoring average currently at 13.4 points per game — 7.7 points under a glittery career average and 4.5 points under last season’s production. “But it will come. As long as we can all stay healthy and keep the wear and tear off each other, it’s best for the team.”

It is more than just scoring, he is grabbing one less rebound, getting fewer minutes and shots (which is the main reason rebounding and scoring are down) and has not looked comfortable as he has worked to adjust to a Spurs team that is running more and needing him less.

Duncan just hasn’t looked himself. Why? Maybe because once rock solid midrange game has left him.

According to Hoopdata, last season Duncan took 2.9 shots per game from 10-15 feet out and hit 42.2 percent of them. He has basically done those same numbers for years and years — this is his deadly 12-foot bank from the wing, his sweet shot from the high post.

This season, he is taking 1.3 per game from there, making just 25 percent. His numbers everywhere else are pretty comparable to previous seasons (he is getting one less shot a game at the rim).

In the last three games, he is 2-for-11 from the rim out to 10 feet, 0-2 on shots from 10-15. In those three games his is 4-18 overall when he steps away from the rim.

This is not likely to last — it’s hard to imagine Tim Duncan’s shooting touch just going away. He’ll find it, and in the interim the Spurs are loaded with big men who can play the four and contribute — DeJuan Blair, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter. They can afford to wait on Duncan.

But still, it’s hard not to see a 34-year-old Duncan with a lot of miles on him and wonder if this is him starting to really slip. I wouldn’t bet on it come playoff time, but maybe.



Yeah ... not so much. He'll be fine, and he'll definitely be there when the Spurs need him if he's healthy (*knock on wood*).

[JWest596]

Tim Duncan slumping because his midrange game has deserted him

Go ask Chicago. Tim's been slumping because he has been fighting flu like symptoms for three games.

Moron

[101A]

How's this for similar careers:

Robinson
Games Started: 985
Games Played: 987
Points Scored: 20,790

Duncan
Games Started: 985
Games Played: 987
Points Scored: 20,778

Staggering Coincidence.