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View Full Version : I'm a little worried about the reliance on 3 pointers



jaa6312
11-15-2010, 09:33 AM
I've only been able to watch 2 games this year, so I might be wrong, but it seems like we are winning alot of games by relying on the 3 ball. Thoughts?

Chieflion
11-15-2010, 09:35 AM
Only knocking the 3 ball down because they are open. And that is a good thing.

The_Worlds_finest
11-15-2010, 09:37 AM
I am no bball genius, but I am assuming the three ball is about the only counter the Spurs have to the size and paint d of the Lakers. I will say this, ill bet on the spurs three ball all the way to the bank

Frankie23
11-15-2010, 09:42 AM
Spurs are knocking 3s cause they have good shooters. One night it could be Jefferson, other Bonner..Why not Gary Neal or James Anderson (when healthy)?
Manu is shooting great too..George Hill had a good % last year..

That is 6 players that can score from three with a high %.. So it will be a terrible night for the Spurs if none of them is shooting well..

Supergirl
11-15-2010, 09:51 AM
Spurs have always relied on 3 pt shooters in the past when they've been successful - but the reason for this is because it starts from being strong inside the paint, drawing double teams, and then having good shooters on the perimeter for when the ball gets kicked outside.

sa_butta
11-15-2010, 09:54 AM
Live by the three die by the three, look at our past championship teams, we have always had at least two consistant 3 point shooters. With Ginobili, Neal, Anderson, and Bonner someone is bound to be hot and bonus if they are all knocking them down...

coyotes_geek
11-15-2010, 09:55 AM
It's only been this way for like 12 seasons now.

J.T.
11-15-2010, 09:56 AM
pop has been in love with the 3 point shot for a while now

having brent barry and robert horry on championship rosters spoiled him

if you think this is unique to the 2011 team you are wrong

pawe
11-15-2010, 10:02 AM
Were you able to watch how the suns kicked the lakers' ass last night with the 3 ball? I say make them as comfortable as possible outside the arc.

elbamba
11-15-2010, 10:08 AM
THere is a healthy mix between three pointers and driving to the basket. Everyone of the Spurs players who rely on the three pointer can take it to the hoop effectively.

boutons_deux
11-15-2010, 10:10 AM
yep, Spurs now live and die by the 3G, true last year, and true now. Spurs are the descendants of d'Antoni's run-and-gun Suns.

Obstructed_View
11-15-2010, 10:31 AM
The Spurs have plenty of guys who can slash and attack the basket, which opens up the threes. Last year's team ran plays to get three point shots, this year's team runs plays to get three point shooters wide open if the defense collapses.

yavozerb
11-15-2010, 11:01 AM
I have no problem with the reliance on the 3pt shot at this point of the season..Teams are currently more interested in trying to stop the driving ability of manu and TP so right now the 3pt shots are open. In due time you will not see the collapse in the middle you are seeing now and the 3pt shot will not be as easy to come by. As long as Manu,TP,Hill,RJ keep putting pressure on the defense I cannot see how the 3pt shot will not one of major weapons of this team.

Spurminator
11-15-2010, 11:05 AM
The Spurs are attempting threes at about the same rate as they have for the last four seasons including 2007. They're averaging 20.4 attempts per game compared to 19.0 in 2007, 19.6 in 2008, 19.8 in 2009, and 18.9 last season. And, so far at least, they're making a lot more of them.

ManuTastic
11-15-2010, 11:13 AM
Spurs have always relied on 3 pt shooters in the past when they've been successful - but the reason for this is because it starts from being strong inside the paint, drawing double teams, and then having good shooters on the perimeter for when the ball gets kicked outside.

Yep, that's it. That and solid D were the foundation. The Rockets won two titles that way too.

The question isn't 'are we shooting too many 3s,' the question is 'can Duncan still demand double teams inside to free up shooters?' Or more broadly, can Duncan+Splitter+Blair?

easjer
11-15-2010, 11:20 AM
Yep, that's it. That and solid D were the foundation. The Rockets won two titles that way too.

The question isn't 'are we shooting too many 3s,' the question is 'can Duncan still demand double teams inside to free up shooters?' Or more broadly, can Duncan+Splitter+Blair?

At this point, it appears so. He's played well until the last couple of games. The question is whether he'll be in this shape come end of season or whether he'll have the drop-off he experienced last year. If the latter, they won't double down on him.

But even that can be counter-acted if Splitter/Dyess/Blair can keep pulling, and if Manu/Tony/etc can slash. They won't be able to stay out on the perimeter, they'll be killed inside.

Both pieces have to work together for this to be a successful gambit.

It is a gamble, one they've made successfully in the past. Nights like last night, Bonner shooting incredibly, don't happen every night - but if they happen often enough, it's enough to influence the defense, because they can't assume it won't happen again.

I do worry some about over-reliance on the 3. It's a delicate balance. Hopefully, they'll be able to acheive it again this year.

Flux451
11-15-2010, 12:42 PM
When you are good at something, keep doing it.

They are the number one 3pt% shooting team in the NBA.

We have too many dead eye shooters this year...thats a great thing. This style is here to stay.

Spursone
11-15-2010, 01:00 PM
What the 3 point shot does for a team is spread out the floor giving guys cutting to the basket open lanes. In the OKC game Ginoboli was able to cut to the basket and make an easy layup because Red Rocket was being covered on the perimeter. It basically gives a team more options and if the 3 is hitting, LET IT RAIN!

GO SPURS GO!:lobt2::flag:

lefty
11-15-2010, 01:09 PM
I'm not worried at all

It's not like we are living and dying by the 3

The_Worlds_finest
11-15-2010, 01:16 PM
Lefty, is that spurs defense still missing?

lefty
11-15-2010, 01:22 PM
Lefty, is that spurs defense still missing?
For 48 minutes, yes

yavozerb
11-15-2010, 01:34 PM
For 48 minutes, yes

:lol, As many weapons on offense as this spurs team has just give me good defense for the final 12 minutes and Im happy..

YODA
11-15-2010, 01:52 PM
D D D D D D D D D D D D D . See it here and there, but interier D and Weak side D is so so at best at this point. I harped on 3 point shooting last year many times.
I recall seeing box scores with over 25 3pt attempts. Im not sure where pop wants that number, but I know 25-30 attempts aint it. The other thing is if were hot and hitting, why not keep it up till they put a man on us.?

jestersmash
11-15-2010, 02:06 PM
Your concerns are ill-advised. We have four all star-caliber players who can score near the rim when the paint starts to open up as opponents guard the 3 more closely.

Otherwise, if you're given a wide open 3, you let your ~40% 3 point shooters shoot the open shot and live with the results. We have five who can shoot the 3 reasonably well (gino, RJ, bonner, neal, anderson).

Why are the spurs so much more robust this year compared to last year? Options. We have so many more options this year. If someone is having an off night, there are 3 or 4 other comparable players who can step up to shoulder the offensive load.

We scored 117 points last night and we never had to force the ball down to Tim. If our guards happened to have a tough time scoring, we still had Tim as an "ace in the hole" - we can always pass him the ball and know that - by virtue of his close proximity to the rim - he's going to get a reasonably high percentage shot most of the time.

yavozerb
11-15-2010, 02:25 PM
D D D D D D D D D D D D D . See it here and there, but interier D and Weak side D is so so at best at this point. I harped on 3 point shooting last year many times.
I recall seeing box scores with over 25 3pt attempts. Im not sure where pop wants that number, but I know 25-30 attempts aint it. The other thing is if were hot and hitting, why not keep it up till they put a man on us.?

The spurs are averaging 20 3pt shots a game, which is about right for this team. I do agree that 25+ is excessive unless most of those shots are going in (like last night).

GSH
11-15-2010, 02:34 PM
I wasn't so sure that the Spurs are really taking a lot more 3's than other teams - especially the ones that are near the top of the standings. So I looked at the number of 3PA vs FGA for the 8 best teams in the league. (Best records currently.) Turns out the Spurs are pretty high on the list. About as often as the Lakers, but not nearly as often as the Magic. (Note: The last column shows what percentage of each team's shots are 3's. For the Spurs about 1/4 of their shots, almost 25%, are 3 pointers.)

Team.....Record...3PA...FGA.3PA/FGA
Magic.....(6-3)....242 - 707.. .342
Lakers....(8-2)....222 - 898.. .247
Spurs.....(8-1)....184 - 754.. .244
Mavs......(6-2)....141 - 614.. .230
Hawks....(7-4)....180 - 846.. .213
Hornets..(8-0)....129 - 615.. .209
Jazz.......(7-3)....144 - 825.. .175
Celtics....(8-2)....134 - 798.. .168

So then I started wondering if the Spurs are shooting a lot more 3-pointers this year than they did in previous years. It's about the same as the last 4 years, but considerably more often than the 4 years before that.

Year 3PA FGA 3PA/FGA
2009 1,547 - 6,659 (.232)
2008 1,620 - 6,534 (.248)
2007 1,610 - 6,424 (.251)
2006 1,561 - 6,328 (.247)
2005 1,362 - 6,342 (.215)
2004 1,395 - 6,450 (.220)
2003 1,140 - 6,434 (.177)
2002 1,270 - 6,297 (.202)

The 06-07 season is the only time we have shot a high percentage of 3's and still won it all. But our 3P shooting percentage was much higher starting in 2006, so maybe we're shooting them because we're hitting them? So far this season, we are making an obscene percentage of 3's. I'm sure we'll slow down some if we quit hitting the shots.

Sean Cagney
11-15-2010, 02:35 PM
I am no bball genius, but I am assuming the three ball is about the only counter the Spurs have to the size and paint d of the Lakers. I will say this, ill bet on the spurs three ball all the way to the bank

I don't really like that there, if they get in a playoff series and go cold there for a few games it's a wrap :depressed. I don't like the fact a team relies on threes falling at that clip to win (Old Suns and Mavs etc.).

InRareForm
11-15-2010, 02:41 PM
I don't really like that there, if they get in a playoff series and go cold there for a few games it's a wrap :depressed. I don't like the fact a team relies on threes falling at that clip to win (Old Suns and Mavs etc.).

Spurs would lose easily if it became a slowdown series with Lakers. Gotta go with possibly could work.

DJB
11-15-2010, 02:53 PM
I wouldn't say we're relying on it. Teams aren't respecting our range and leaving the arch open, it's as simple as that.

We're still attacking the basket when we need to, usually.

dunkman
11-15-2010, 03:08 PM
3 point shooting was the key for every Spurs championship. At first the Spurs collapse the opponent defense, then the ball goes to the perimeter, rotate until the wide open player who takes the shot.

In the 99 and 03 championship year the defenses mainly collapsed because Duncan without a immediate double team was automatic points.

For the 05 and 07 championships, guard driving become important as well, that scheme was first seen with Derek Anderson for the 2000-2001 season.

This season, the offense doesn't go trough Duncan, Parker and Duncan don't even play P&R either, not sure why. With the rule changes, PG's and swing players are in great advantage one on one. The Spurs have talented players in Parker, Manu, RJ, Hill and probably Anderson to take advantage.

If the player that drive doesn't score or get fouled, the ball returns to the perimeter, where Manu, RJ, Hill, Bonner, Neal and Anderson can shot 3's and Parker and Dice can make large 2's.

However, I think that the Spurs will resort to the interior players for scoring at some point. Duncan and Splitter are very talented, the Spurs should play P&R too.

Solid D
11-15-2010, 03:26 PM
The Spurs over-relied on the 3-point shot in their only loss this season - to the Hornets. The Spurs made more FTs, pulled-in more rebounds, dished-out more assists, had fewer TOs but went 6-26 from the arc. That drove their FG% down to 38.8% and, along with poor rotational defense, ended up being the Spurs' downfall. They just weren't very aggressive in going to the basket and settled for what the Hornets gave them. The Spurs missed.

ORION
11-15-2010, 03:34 PM
As long as they stay aggressive. I think they got the right mix of shooters who shoot with a lot of confidence. They will keep this up plus they are getting to the line and right now they are what 9th in freethrow percentage. That right there is a huge stat.

BackHome
11-15-2010, 05:58 PM
Really the Spurs have only three guys who can beat their man off the dribble and score. That is Timmy, Manu and Tony that is why Manu is so important to us because when Tony is out Manu is our PG.

I don't think it will be a problem this year but I would like the Spurs to draft someone next year who can create their own shot and hit from the outside.

ChuckD
11-15-2010, 07:53 PM
Yep, that's it. That and solid D were the foundation. The Rockets won two titles that way too.

The question isn't 'are we shooting too many 3s,' the question is 'can Duncan still demand double teams inside to free up shooters?' Or more broadly, can Duncan+Splitter+Blair?

Your thinking is a bit too "inside the box". Both Parker and Ginobili also demand extra attention in the paint.

Twenty three pointers isn't a lot. We just made a ridiculous amount of them. As for the Lakers, they'll dare you to shoot them, and if you hit them, like Phoenix did last night, they lose. At this point, they are older and less athletic than we are, and they have to pick an area to defend. Bet on "paint" when they play us. Our three point shooting will have to pry open their packed lane strategy.

ShoogarBear
11-15-2010, 08:05 PM
The Spurs have plenty of guys who can slash and attack the basket, which opens up the threes. Last year's team ran plays to get three point shots, this year's team runs plays to get three point shooters wide open if the defense collapses.

And that's the key. It's okay if you're taking a lot of threes AND getting to the line. It's not okay if you're taking a lot of threes INSTEAD of getting to the line.

baseline bum
11-15-2010, 08:19 PM
It's amazing how much easier those threes drop when Tony Parker is healthy and able to attack the basket again.

Obstructed_View
11-15-2010, 08:57 PM
It's not really a coincidence that the Spurs lost the one game where they just thought they could shoot from the outside all night long without working for a better shot.

The Truth #6
11-15-2010, 10:20 PM
Your thinking is a bit too "inside the box". Both Parker and Ginobili also demand extra attention in the paint.

Twenty three pointers isn't a lot. We just made a ridiculous amount of them. As for the Lakers, they'll dare you to shoot them, and if you hit them, like Phoenix did last night, they lose. At this point, they are older and less athletic than we are, and they have to pick an area to defend. Bet on "paint" when they play us. Our three point shooting will have to pry open their packed lane strategy.

I agree. Phil has always dared us to shoot from the outside. With our excellent outside shooting that has to help us more than hurt us. In the playoffs, Phil always tries to expose your weakness. If Tim can still score in the paint come playoffs, then then I think we'll be fairly balanced. And as others have said, this team so far hasn't just been about shooting 3s. RJ, Tony, and Manu have been getting in the lane constantly.

Trill Clinton
11-15-2010, 10:23 PM
Relying? No

HarlemHeat37
11-15-2010, 10:40 PM
Spurs have a good enough balance right now, when you consider the circumstances..

Manu and Duncan clearly have orders not to exert too much during this part of the regular season..Ginobili is taking 3 more 3-point attempts per game, and Duncan is shooting 2+ less shots at the rim per game, IIRC..neither of them are really attacking the paint so far..

The Spurs are 14th in points in the paint, despite this, and they're 8th in FTA per game, the best they have been since 2003..the balance is fine right now..there are a lot of offensive weapons on this team, it's impressive..

GSH
11-15-2010, 11:05 PM
The Spurs are 14th in points in the paint, despite this, and they're 8th in FTA per game, the best they have been since 2003..the balance is fine right now..there are a lot of offensive weapons on this team, it's impressive..

Dead on. The balance is more than fine right now.

The question may be that if the 3's stop falling, will they be able to get it done some other way? And if you're talking about right now, today, we're probably a little lacking. But some of Blair's point-blank shots and put-backs are starting to fall. And I have confidence that Splitter will be a significant scoring threat in the paint, by the All Star Break.

The real thing that isn't being said is, "Can Tim still get it done down low?" We all know that Tim is getting to the latter part of his career. But don't kid yourself - he's still Tim Duncan. While the 3's are falling, he doesn't have to kill himself. But when the Spurs need it, he'll do whatever is needed. The end may be in sight, but it's not this year.

ORION
11-15-2010, 11:44 PM
And that's the key. It's okay if you're taking a lot of threes AND getting to the line. It's not okay if you're taking a lot of threes INSTEAD of getting to the line.

right, you need to keep the defense on their toes. This year though it seems like the right people are getting to the line. Plus Parker is knocking down his freethrows as well. I've never seen a Spurs team that had so many legit 3 point shooters

G-Dawgg
11-15-2010, 11:52 PM
We'll be fine as long as Jefferson is still taking it to the hole, and scoring on aggressive drives to the hoop and drawing fouls. Because Tim isn't as effective drawing fouls and getting interior points as easily.

Sean Cagney
11-16-2010, 12:00 AM
Spurs would lose easily if it became a slowdown series with Lakers. Gotta go with possibly could work.

They would not fall in a series where the D tightens up, we saw that before in 01 when we had the top three point team in the league that year with Ferry, Porter, Elliott etc., they did not fall in the WCF's and the Spurs were toast relying on that three. They have other aspects of the game now luckily with Manu, Parker and RJ who can slash, but shooting that many threes never works in the end and they eventually stop falling at that clip.

Last year we relied on it alot too, as a matter of fact the last two years I hated all the threes they were launching, when they did not fall SA went flat in the water.
Spurs have a good enough balance right now, when you consider the circumstances..

Manu and Duncan clearly have orders not to exert too much during this part of the regular season..Ginobili is taking 3 more 3-point attempts per game, and Duncan is shooting 2+ less shots at the rim per game, IIRC..neither of them are really attacking the paint so far..

The Spurs are 14th in points in the paint, despite this, and they're 8th in FTA per game, the best they have been since 2003..the balance is fine right now..there are a lot of offensive weapons on this team, it's impressive..

I hope so! Still pissed Anderson is out for so long :( I will miss him and he was shooting the ball really well and a part of that attack. I hope someone will pick the slack up with him out.

kaji157
11-16-2010, 12:04 AM
Tim had a great first half last season and i think he can repeat it afterwards or when itīs needed. Luckily we donīt need it now.
Same goes for Manu last year (second half), he can repeat it, but we donīt need either of them with a healthy Parker to get easy points and with better 3pt shooters.

Blake
11-16-2010, 12:38 AM
It's only been this way for like 12 seasons now.

ive been worried about it through 4 champsionships and 1 Memorial Day Miracle.

Dalamar_the_Dark
11-16-2010, 12:51 AM
It's a chicken and egg situation. If we don't have good 3 point shooters, opposing defenses will just collapse on Duncan. The paint will be crowded out and Parker and Manu will have more problems slashing to the basket.

If we have good 3 point shooters, Duncan will be able to work better inside and face less double teams. Slashers will also have more space with a spread out floor.

I'm not worried about reliance on 3 point shooters. Good 3 point shooters are ESSENTIAL to winning and I'm happy that we have quite a few players that have taken turns lighting it up from beyond the arc.

UnWantedTheory
11-16-2010, 04:02 AM
We have to play to our strengths. Thus far 3 point shooting is one of them. Its essential to have good shooters. If we cant rely on quality shooting then what ?...Timmy cant dominate every game anymore.