The Draft Lottery is Tonight!

[tlongII]

The real suspense tonight will happen at halftime. There's not much incentive to watch the games right now as all we're seeing is how many games it will take the Spurs and Pistons before they meet in the Finals. Here's to wishing the Blazers good luck at getting the #1 pick!

[Kori Ellis]

% = chance of winning lottery
1. Atlanta (25.0%)
2. New Orleans (17.8%)
3. Charlotte (17.7%)
4. Utah (11.9%)
5. Portland (8.8%)
6. Milwaukee (6.3%)
7. Toronto (3.6%)
8. New York (3.5%)
9. Golden State (1.4%)
10. L.A. Lakers (1.4%)
11. Orlando (0.8%)
12. L.A. Clippers (0.7%)
13. Charlotte (0.6%)
14. Minnesota (0.5%)
15. New Jersey
16. Toronto
17. Indiana
18. Boston
19. Memphis
20. Denver
21. Phoenix
22. Denver
23. Sacramento
24. Houston
25. Seattle
26. Detroit
27. Utah
28. San Antonio
29. Miami
30. New York

[ducks]

vbookie it?

[ducks]

how much you want to beat lakers get a top 4 pick

[tlongII]

If the Lakers win the lottery can we create a Conspiracy Forum?

[50 cent]

Do you have any record of how often the "favorite" gets the #1 seed? You can bet on this at my online book and I might throw just a little on New Orleans, Charlotte, and of course the Lakers (Stern special). It seems like the favorite rarely gets the #1 pick.

[Kori Ellis]

2005 FIRST ROUND DRAFT CHOICE ORDER

The teams entered in the lottery are as follows (note: the first three picks in the Draft will be determined by the lottery and the remainder of the “lottery teams” will select in positions 4 through 14 in inverse order of their consolidated standings at the end of the regular season):


TEAM RECORD LOTTERY CHANCES (out of 1,000)
Atlanta 13-69 250
New Orleans 18-64 178
Charlotte 18-64 177
Utah 26-56 119
Portland 27-55 88
Milwaukee 30-52 63
Toronto 33-49 36
New York 33-49 35
Golden State 34-48 14
LA Lakers 34-48 14
Orlando 36-46 8
LA Clippers 37-45 7
Cleveland (To CHA via PHO) 42-40 6
Minnesota 44-38 5

The order for the remainder of the first round picks is as follows:

15. New Jersey (42-40)
16. Philadelphia (To TOR via DEN and NJN) (43-39)
17. Indiana (44-38)
18. Boston (45-37)
19. Memphis (45-37)
20. Washington (To DEN via ORL) (45-37)
21. Chicago (To PHO) (47-35)
22. Denver (49-33)
23. Sacramento (50-32)
24. Houston (51-31)
25. Seattle (52-30)
26. Detroit (54-28)
27. Dallas (To Utah) (58-24)
28. San Antonio (59-23)
29. Miami (59-23)
30. Phoenix (To NY via SAS) (62-20)

2005 SECOND ROUND DRAFT CHOICE ORDER

31. Atlanta
32/33.* Charlotte (To LA Clippers)
32/33.* New Orleans
34. Utah
35. Portland
36. Milwaukee
37/38.* New York (To LA Lakers via Atlanta and Charlotte)
37/38.* Toronto Pick may be conveyed to Orlando
39/40.* LA Lakers
39/40.* Golden State
41. Orlando Pick may be conveyed to Golden State via New Jersey and LA Clippers or to Toronto.
42. LA Clippers (To Orlando or to Toronto via Orlando or to Golden State via New Jersey)
43. New Jersey
44. Cleveland (To Orlando)
45. Philadelphia Pick may be conveyed to Detroit.
46. Indiana
47. Minnesota
48. Memphis (To Seattle)
49. Washington
50. Boston
51. Chicago (To Utah via Houston)
52. Denver
53. Sacramento (To Boston)
54. Houston (To New York)
55. Seattle
56. Detroit
57. Dallas (To Phoenix via New Orleans)
58. Miami (To Toronto)
59. San Antonio (To Atlanta)
60. Phoenix (To Utah)

[FromWayDowntown]

how much you want to beat lakers get a top 4 pick

It wouldn't shock me if the Lakers mysteriously ended up with 1, 2, or 3.

[timvp]

It's safe to safe the conspiracy theories died the day the Knicks didn't end up with LeBron James.

[PM5K]

The real suspense tonight will happen at halftime. There's not much incentive to watch the games right now as all we're seeing is how many games it will take the Spurs and Pistons before they meet in the Finals. Here's to wishing the Blazers good luck at getting the #1 pick!

Good luck man, maybe you can get back to some of the better days with guys like Drexler, Kersey, Porter, Robinson, etc.

I like what the GM has done over there, getting rid of some of that dead weight, although Randolph is overpaid as is Miles but you can't get em all right.....

[johndraegerhhs]

I think Atlanta will get #1

[kskonn]

good luck...

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

The Draft Lottery is Tonight!

Finally! Something for a Blazer fan to get excited about after May 1!

[maxpower]

How hard is it for the NBA to borrow one of the state lottery ball machines and their auditors and conduct the lottery in public. What are they afraid of?

[baseline bum]

This would have been way funnier if this was one of the years Minnesota lost their first round pick.

[BronxCowboy]

Why does San Antonio pick before Miami?

[Willinsa]

It wouldn't shock me if the Lakers mysteriously ended up with 1, 2, or 3.

Ducks and FromWay downtown read my mind, I somehow see the Lakers getting a high pick in the lottery tonight. You know Stern would love that.

[Sportcamper]

Calling All Lakers Fans! (http://www.presstelegram.com/Stories/0,1413,204~28780~2884306,00.html)

For her part, Jeanie Buss will be toting a purse with her eight Lakers championship rings and also will be bringing a lucky stuffed animal given to her by her mother. She also has a message for fans tuning in before Game 2 of the Western Conference finals...

"I'm asking for all Laker fans who've been so supportive this year, through so much disappointment," Buss said, "that they all sit down in their lucky chair, wear their lucky shirt, put on their lucky hat and tune in Tuesday night and send positive vibes..."

Buss also said she is ready for the conspiracy theories if the Lakers move into the top three...

[pooh]

Remember the red chameleon or whatever some dude had here that they used when the Spurs got Robinson? Did they use another charm when they got Duncan?

[PM5K]

I hope New York doesn't get number one, that would just be dumb luck for an idiot like Thomas...

[Spurminator]

I'm guessing the NBA is hoping LA doesn't get a high pick for the very reasons you all are citing.

[pooh]

Instead putting so many ping-pong balls for each team who had the worst record, etc. Just put in whatever number of teams that are available and just start from there?

[MadDog73]

I haven't even been paying attention to the Draft this year. Who are the top prospects? Can they really help a team?

[kskonn]

I think the conspiracy theory ended way before Lebron, I believe it ended when a guy named Duncan miracously landed with the spurs.

[FromWayDowntown]

To clear up a couple of things:


Why does San Antonio pick before Miami?

The Spurs won a coin toss with the Heat and got the lower pick. Same thing happened in 2003 -- Spurs won the toss and picked #28 while the Mavs fell to #29 (you can argue about the results of that draft -- Spurs traded #28 (Barbosa) to Phoenix for a future #1, which became Mohammed; Mavericks kept #29 and picked Josh Howard).


Remember the red chameleon or whatever some dude had here that they used when the Spurs got Robinson? Did they use another charm when they got Duncan?

The red chameleon was in Secaucus on the day the lottery balls turned up right in 1997, too. I guess it worked well in the Spurs other major lottery foray -- in 1989, the Spurs ended up at #3 and skipped over any obligation to draft either Pervis Ellison or Danny Ferry, and settled for some guy named Elliott (or Elliot, for those who choose to piss off timvp).


How hard is it for the NBA to borrow one of the state lottery ball machines and their auditors and conduct the lottery in public. What are they afraid of?

They can't do that, because the TV audience would be waiting forever. To make sure the teams' chances are adequately protected, they put 1000 ping pong balls (which are numerically coded, rather than team identifying) into the hopper and draw. They pull a ball and match it to a code sheet to determine which team's ball has been drawn. The problem is that they could draw the Hawks ball, and then on the next 10 draws also pull a Hawks ball; you'd never have any control over how many drawings it took to pull out a unique team. The other problem is that there wouldn't be much drama if they did it live -- because of the way they do the drawing, they have to pull for the #1 pick first (if you pulled first for #3, the Hawks would have the best chance to win, but they would have been deprived of their chance to win the #1 pick). So, if you did it live, you'd get the #1 pick revealed first, which would take away the drama of revealing the picks from 14 down to 1.

[FromWayDowntown]

I haven't even been paying attention to the Draft this year. Who are the top prospects? Can they really help a team?

This year is odd among recent years, because it seems that most of the best prospects are coming out of U.S. colleges. There are a few overseas kids that are getting some mention, and a few high school kids have their names in the mix, but this year, teams seem focused on guys like Andrew Bogut (Univ. of Utah), Marvin Williams (UNC), Chris Paul (Wake Forest). ESPN has a pretty good list of who is available and their relative merits.

[Phenomanul]

How hard is it for the NBA to borrow one of the state lottery ball machines and their auditors and conduct the lottery in public. What are they afraid of?


How is the draft logic even conducted?
For example, on the first pick Atlanta comes out as the winner, do they:
1. Leave the remaining 249 Atlanta balls in the pot and pick again.
1a. If Atlanta comes out again, they just chuck it...
1b. Any other repeat team is tossed away...
2. They stop the pot and pull out all the other Atlanta balls.
2a. The chances for the other teams increases as the inverse of the ratio that was removed.

?????????????

[MadDog73]

The other problem is that there wouldn't be much drama if they did it live -- because of the way they do the drawing, they have to pull for the #1 pick first (if you pulled first for #3, the Hawks would have the best chance to win, but they would have been deprived of their chance to win the #1 pick). So, if you did it live, you'd get the #1 pick revealed first, which would take away the drama of revealing the picks from 14 down to 1.


I'm not buying the "drama" argument. People watch the actual Draft live, and the #1 Team picks first...

[DDS4]

Hopefully Golden State gets the #1 with Bogut.

Baron Davis is the lucky charm.

[FromWayDowntown]

I'm not buying the "drama" argument. People watch the actual Draft live, and the #1 Team picks first...

That's a different situation, in my opinion, because the league doesn't have to package the draft as being a dramatic event. The draft's drama is progressive; there is usually more drama in the draft the deeper you go into it, since most years, the identity of the #1 pick is established long before the broadcast begins.

The lottery, by contrast, is all about the unknown of who will get the #1 pick, a fate that has been known to transform the fortunes of franchises and cities. Nobody knows ahead of time who will win, so they build up to it by slowing eliminating teams from the mix. If they did it the way you propose, they might as well limit it to a one-minute broadcast (which the league won't do) or just publish a list after the fact. The lottery is drama for teams that haven't had any drama all year.


And hegamboa, my understanding is that they do the drawing in the way that you posit in #1 -- they put all the balls in the hopper, draw one, leave all of the other balls in until they draw the first ball from a team that didn't come out on the first pull, and do the same again, pulling until they get a team different from the first two teams selected. They only draw for 3 spots, so I can't imagine it takes a real long time, but it strikes me as being too tedious for TV.

[tlongII]

Actually I believe the lottery will be shown prior to the game tonight, not at halftime. My bad.

[Sportcamper]

In any case I know I can count on Tim MVP, Kori, Travis, Cosmic, tlong Dr Jim, Jenn, Crazy, Sara, Spurs woman SA Mikey, User, Mouse...And many many others to have on their Lakers garb & crossing their fingers for some positive energy to come to Jeannie Buss this evening... :smokin

[Solid D]

Kevin Pritchard has a secret plan. Who will be this year's Sam Bowie?

[Obstructed_View]

It's safe to safe the conspiracy theories died the day the Knicks didn't end up with LeBron James.
Or the day the Spurs got Tim Duncan (twice) instead of the Celtics.

[JLH Fans]

Even we only have very slim chance,I hope the Wolwes will claim 1/1,2or 3 pick and Bogut/Paul.
But I"ll be content with the 14.pick and we should take Hakim Warrick.

[tlongII]

In any case I know I can count on Tim MVP, Kori, Travis, Cosmic, tlong Dr Jim, Jenn, Crazy, Sara, Spurs woman SA Mikey, User, Mouse...And many many others to have on their Lakers garb & crossing their fingers for some positive energy to come to Jeannie Buss this evening... :smokin


I would like to show Jeannie some of my own personal positive energy. She wouldn't care what pick the Lakers wind up with after that.

[ShoogarBear]

Kevin Pritchard has a secret plan. Who will be this year's Sam Bowie?Nah. They're just looking over the prison rolls for any high schoolers with positive urine tests.

[Chris]

Malik Rose will never come back with our salary cap as it is.

[50 cent]

You have a shot tllong...down to ATL, POR, and MIL.

[FromWayDowntown]

tlong is about to become insufferable.

[Horry For 3!]

Congrats tlongII, you get a top 3 pick.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Surprisingly, I'm pulling for tlong.

[ducks]

allen paid BIG MONEY TO MOVE UP!

[50 cent]

Surprisingly, I'm pulling for tlong.
:lmao Me too.

[Horry For 3!]

Trailblazers = 3rd pick

[50 cent]

Milwaukee

[DDS4]

Bucks = big weiner

[ducks]

Tj Ford And Bogut And Porter!

[DDS4]

Last #1 for the Bucks : Big Dog

[ducks]

bucks new assist coaches but they kepted porter

[DDS4]

Damn, the Bucks rep's hands are shaking like crazy. Nervous?

[jalbre6]

Man, I hope they grab Bogut. That might even be enough for Michael Redd to stick around, especially if TJ is ready to get back into the action.

Wonder who Portland is going to grab? Chris Paul?

[atlfan25]

i guess there is no draft lottery conspiracy

[TDMVPDPOY]

bogut is a bust

hope port picks williams or green thats what they need, unless they get rid of miles n patterson

[mattyc]

bogut is a bust



:rolleyes :jack

Bogut will be a quality player. I was hoping he'd play with David Andersen at the Hawks.

[Sportcamper]

Congrats... Tlong...I think the Lakers got the 10?
We have you guys just where we want you... :smokin

[tlongII]

I'm a little disappointed with getting the #3 pick. Chris Paul is the consensus 3rd best player in the draft, but we already have a point guard for the future in Telfair. I'm not sure what we'll do now. Maybe trade down?

[ducks]

should portland trade up?

[alamo50]

1. Bucks Marvin Williams PF 6-9 230 North Carolina
The Bucks have the backcourt and they rotated three centers this season and did just fine. What they don’t have is a power forward. Marvin Williams fits. They have invested in Dan Gadzuric and Zasa Pachulia in the middle, which means they should pass on Bogut. Stay with them, take Williams.

2. Hawks Chris Paul PG 5-11 175 Wake Forest
The Hawks, the worst team in the NBA, need a point guard and center. It’s hard to pass on Andrew Bogut, but Paul is too exciting to let slip away. This is where the electricity of Steve Nash rubs off and influences the Atlanta decision ... Paul is that kind of make-it-happen talent that comes along every 10 years.

3. Trail Blazers Andrew Bogut C 7-0 242 Utah
The Blazers really need a shooting guard, but they also have a need at center. They love Bogut and cross their fingers the Hawks will choose Paul.

Link (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7966511/)


Sadly that will mean we will see Bogut go to waste in Portland......

[Jimcs50]

Sadly that will mean we will see Bogut go to waste in Portland......

And he is wasted in Atlanta???

Portland is much closer to making playoffs than Atlanta if they had Bogut.

[tlongII]

Bogut and Willams will go #1 and #2. The reports I've read that have Paul sneaking in there are ridiculous.

[alamo50]

[QUOTE=Jimcs50]And he is wasted in Atlanta???QUOTE]


Actualy I meant wasted as a person playing for them Jailblazers.