18-30 Year Old Voters Overwhelmingly for Kerry

[SpursWoman]

Or are they? (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6091997/site/newsweek/)



Maybe they're not all "stoned slackers". :lol

[Spurminator]

Surprising. I expected a much greater discrepancy.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

That popping sound you hear is Dan's bubble bursting.

[Nbadan]

One article with no statistical data to back up its assertion does not a strong case make. You can believe this propaganda if you want, but all you have to do is go to any college town in the West or East and check the level of support for Kerry versus the lack of support for W. to know the truth. As we have seen with the manipulation of Google results, anything taken online like the GenX poll in this article shouldn't be taken seriously.

[Yonivore]

"One article with no statistical data to back up its assertion does not a strong case make. You can believe this propaganda if you want, but all you have to do is go to any college town in the West or East and check the level of support for Kerry versus the lack of support for W. to know the truth. As we have seen with the manipulation of Google results, anything taken online like the GenX poll in this article shouldn't be taken seriously."
In the words of Emeril Lagasse, BAMM!

To see the survey (http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac3/ContentServer?pagename=polls&nextstep=displayQuestion&interactive=n&pollid=2004267&pripollid=&varname=q3_lean&privarname=&questCategoryType=n&questCategory=Variables.questCategory&keyword=Variables.keyword&pollDateRange=Variables.pollDateRange&ctabtype=A&startingRow=1&pollType=National&searchPollId=2004267&newsearch=) broken down by age, select "results by: age," in the options box.

[Spurminator]

One article with no statistical data to back up its assertion does not a strong case make. You can believe this propaganda if you want, but all you have to do is go to any college town in the West or East and check the level of support for Kerry versus the lack of support for W. to know the truth.

One visit to a college campus with no statistical data does not a strong case make, either.

Perception is not always fact. The anti-Bush crowd has certainly made themselves more visible on college campuses, but that doesn't mean they speak for an overwhelming majority of college students.

And many of the 18-30 crowd are also starting their first full time jobs... and seeing some of the "Tax" rows on your paycheck can change a lot of political ideologies.

Obviously, though, I have no stats either, and I would be interested to see some hard data on the subject.

[Tommy Duncan]

The one thing about that age cohort is that we tend to be skeptical. While the Left believes that lends towards skepticism of the current administration and its foreign policy as well as conservatism in general, it also is a skepticism of the role of government in our society and the deal offered by major government entitlement programs (SS and Medicare), things which do not bode well for a liberal Democrat politician. Also, that age cohort didn't grow up in the 60s. It is not necessarily as inclined to a weak response to Islamist terrorism, particularly when said terrorism killed nearly 3,000 souls in the continental United States 3 years ago.

Here's some data for danny:

www.washingtonpost.com/ac...newsearch= (http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac3/ContentServer?pagename=polls&nextstep=displayQuestion&interactive=n&pollid=2004267&pripollid=&varname=q3_lean&privarname=&questCategoryType=n&questCategory=Variables.questCategory&keyword=Variables.keyword&pollDateRange=Variables.pollDateRange&ctabtype=A&startingRow=1&pollType=National&searchPollId=2004267&newsearch=)




Cohort Bush Kerry
18-30 53% 41%
31-44 50% 44%
45-60 53% 43%
61+ 48% 45%
Total 51% 44%


As I've said before, I wouldn't count on registering "new voters" or "the youth" to provide much of a boost to Kerry.

[CommanderMcBragg]

That's BS. Almost all of my grandchildren are voting democrat.

[Tommy Duncan]

One visit to a college campus with no statistical data does not a strong case make, either.

Perception is not always fact. The anti-Bush crowd has certainly made themselves more visible on college campuses, but that doesn't mean they speak for an overwhelming majority of college students.

And many of the 18-30 crowd are also starting their first full time jobs... and seeing some of the "Tax" rows on your paycheck can change a lot of political ideologies.

Obviously, though, I have no stats either, and I would be interested to see some hard data on the subject.


I think a problem is that too many are assuming that today's youth will follow the path of the youths of yesteryear and favor liberal candidates. This is not to say that 'the youth' are not skeptical or rebellious but are they rebelling against "the man" or perhaps the liberalism of their own parents and the institutional liberalism they encounter on college campuses? Whereas the stereotype of yesteryear was of the middle class suburban kid who grew up with GOP voting parents going to college and transforming into a liberal Democrat assmonkey the stereotype of today's young adults are that they grew up with ex-hippie parents and are bitterly skeptical of everything in our society. The liberalism they encounter on campus is more likely to be seen as being institutional instead of rebellious and skeptical.

[SpursWoman]

That's BS. Almost all of my grandchildren are voting democrat.


So 2 or 3 (4, 5, 6, 7, :shock ?) are going to vote democrat and they are reflective of demographic of the entire country?

Go to a Dixie Chicks concert and poll and I'll bet at least 90% are voting democrat. Somehow I don't think Kerry would win in that big of a landslide.


...my children think Kerry looks like a cross between Deputy Dog and Frankenstein. So if guess if ever eligible all 7-9 year olds would be voting Republican.

:wink

[CommanderMcBragg]

So grandchildren have to be toddlers?

I have them from 3 yrs old all the way up to their upper 20's.

My youngest thinks Dubya walks like he has a corn cob up his ass. :lol

[SpursWoman]

I would never have guessed. :)




No, they don't have to be toddlers. My point was you can't make a *guess-timate* on how an entire demographic will vote based on 2 young adults from what I would *assume* to be a family of Democrats. I don't think it's that implausible to say that a lot of children get most of their political beliefs from their families and teachers/professors.

That and what appears to be the inclination of the left (and right a la Clinton & the GOP) to believe that just because they hate Bush, everyone else must also.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Whoopdedoo, all your grandchildren like Kerry.

Everyone in my family, from ages of 13 to 81, like Bush.

Applying liberal statistical logic, Bush will garner 100% of the vote, and sweep all the demographics 100-0.

:rolleyes

[Tommy Duncan]

Oh well, this discussion is purely academic, for the Left has a surefire way of persuading young adults to vote Democrat:

http://www.indcjournal.com/archives/draft.jpg

[Spurminator]

Speaking of which...

Selective Services (http://www.sss.gov/)


Notwithstanding recent stories in the news media and on the Internet, Selective Service is not getting ready to conduct a draft for the U.S. Armed Forces -- either with a special skills or regular draft. Rather, the Agency remains prepared to manage a draft if and when the President and the Congress so direct. This responsibility has been ongoing since 1980 and is nothing new. Further, both the President and the Secretary of Defense have stated on more than one occasion that there is no need for a draft for the War on Terrorism or any likely contingency, such as Iraq. Additionally, the Congress has not acted on any proposed legislation to reinstate a draft. Therefore, Selective Service continues to refine its plans to be prepared as is required by law, and to register young men who are ages 18 through 25.


Not that 18-30 year olds are frequenting SSS.gov... I'll be interested to see how much coverage The Daily Show, Rolling Stone and MTV give the Draft Scare.

[Joe Chalupa]

I'm over 40 and overwhelmingly for Kerry.

[Nbadan]

from Sept 21...


A new survey of 18-29 year-olds released today shows a strong majority intends to vote, a plurality favor Kerry, and more than twice as many young registered voters are paying "a lot" of attention to the campaign this year compared to 2000. Young voters are paying about as much attention to the campaign as they were in 1992 - when youth turnout spiked. According to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), who released the poll along with MTV, there are nearly 41 million eligible 18-29 year-old voters, comprising one-fifth of the electorate.

If the election were held today, 46% of young voters say that they would vote for John Kerry with 40% saying they would vote for George W. Bush.

Widmeyer Communications (http://www.widmeyer.com/archives/2004/09/young_voters_fa.php)

I bet the gap is closer to 60% Kerry to 40% W.

[Nbadan]

...and Zogby seems to agree with me..


Released: September 29, 2004

Most political pundits believe that the final month of the 2004 presidential campaign will center around the war in Iraq. If so, then young men are likely to cast a vote of “no confidence” in George W. Bush. These are the findings of a new Zogby/Williams Identity poll conducted by Zogby Interactive from September 3 through September 7, 2004. The interactive survey was conducted online among 850 males between the ages of eighteen and thirty years old.

The survey reveals that 60 percent disagree with the statement that George W. Bush made the right decision to go war with Iraq. (Only 40 percent think Bush made the correct decision.) These attitudes remain firmly held when other aspects of the war are probed. For example, 63 percent disagree with the claim that Bush made the right decision to go to war, even if the intelligence data were flawed. Strong opposition to the war among the nation’s young men has created a crisis of confidence in the president’s leadership: 59 percent believe President Bush misled the American people from the beginning about the need to go to war with Iraq.

These negative assessments of the Commander-in-Chief are held by all major racial and income groups among the young men surveyed. For example, when asked if George W. Bush made the right choice in going to war, 36 percent of whites “completely agree;” among Hispanics and African-Americans, the figures are 30 percent and 18 percent respectively. Those at the bottom of the income scale have very negative opinions about the President’s decision to go to war: of those earning less than $15,000, only 27 percent “completely agree” with Bush’s decision. As income levels rise, support for the President’s judgment about the Iraq war decision rises only modestly. For example, of those earning $75,000 or more, 36 percent “completely agree” with Bush’s decision.

There is some evidence that suggests a lack of support for the Iraq War is translating into a crisis of confidence in government........MORE........

Zogby (http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=871)

[Tommy Duncan]

Zogby also uses online polling, a reason a significant number of his statewide polls in 2002 were fucked up. Also probably the major reason why his state polling this year is so off.