48MoH: Regression to the mean: Tim Duncan loses a bet to Nowitzki

[duncan228]

Regression to the mean: Tim Duncan loses a bet to Nowitzki (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/)
by Jesse Blanchard
48 Minutes of Hell

AT&T CENTER–On the night, San Antonio Spurs power forward Tim Duncan lost more than his team’s 12-game winning streak to his Mavericks counterpart, Dirk Nowitzki. He also lost a bet.

If last night’s loss to the Dallas Mavericks (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/dallas-mavericks-san-antonio-spurs-tony-parker-mavs-defense-wins-it) had any ring of familiarity, that’s because in an eerie way, it was. Beyond another meeting of two classic rivals, or the return of familiar face Ian Mahinmi, this game presented a discomforting case of déjà vu. You see, last season when these two teams met the San Antonio Spurs lost a similar game (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/san-antonio-spurs-94-dallas-mavericks-100-tim-duncan-manu-ginobili-turn-it-over) in their first round playoff series.

Then, following a blistering Game 1 performance from Nowitzki, Tim Duncan muttered a phrase (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/san-antonio-spurs-102-dallas-mavericks-88-regression-to-the-mean-means-a-victory-for-tim-duncan-and-the-spurs) that ultimately got the Spurs through the first round. It also proved to be dead wrong.


“And I can go ahead and bet he’s not going to go 12 of 14 again.”

Keep reading → (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/regression-to-the-mean-tim-duncan-loses-a-bet-to-nowitzki#more-11502)

[Blackjack]

Good post from Blanchard. As soon as I saw the title I knew where he was going and remembered the quote.

And I particularly agree with this:

Nowitzki peppered the Spurs with 26 points on 14 shots, hitting 12 of them. It was an amazing night from a great shooter, but still one you dare him to have. Because while Nowitzki has shown that such a night is certainly reproducible, it’s still not very common, and ultimately not the reason the Spurs lost.

[TDMVPDPOY]

those sshots he makes are routine for him anyway

[Mel_13]

This article does not attribute the loss to an excessive number of minutes played by a certain ginger-haired sandwich eater. Color me skeptical.

[pjjrfan]

I think Tony's and RJ's lack of production or effort plus a total team effort with turnovers had more to do with the loss last night.

[Agloco]

This article does not attribute the loss to an excessive number of minutes played by a certain ginger-haired sandwich eater. Color me skeptical.

:lol


Bonner hate always re-surfaces after every bad outing. There's no escaping it until he decides to nut up in the playoffs.

[itzsoweezee]

This article does not attribute the loss to an excessive number of minutes played by a certain ginger-haired sandwich eater. Color me skeptical.

hahahahhaha, that's how i'm going to refer to him from now on

[Roddy Beaubois]

Lol Duncan

[Agloco]

Lol Duncan

How's the foot?

[widowmaker]

I think Tony's and RJ's lack of production or effort plus a total team effort with turnovers had more to do with the loss last night.

Yep and thinking about it I feel like everyone from pop to the entire team ( yes Duncan too ) with the exception of hill left Ginobili hanging. This was by far the laziest, I don't care performance of the year. :bang

[JustinJDW]

I still wonder how Dirk is able to play like 40 minutes a night at the age of 32 and still be ready for the Playoffs. Crazy stuff.

[TJastal]

I still wonder how Dirk is able to play like 40 minutes a night at the age of 32 and still be ready for the Playoffs. Crazy stuff.

One reason: He's had Tyson Chandler & Erick Dampier watching his back for the past 4-5 years.

Compare with Tim Duncan having Matt Bonner & Oberto. That's likely made a HUGE difference in the toll their bodies have taken from all the banging and board work.

[Agloco]

I still wonder how Dirk is able to play like 40 minutes a night at the age of 32 and still be ready for the Playoffs. Crazy stuff.


One reason: He's had Tyson Chandler & Erick Dampier watching his back for the past 4-5 years.

Compare with Tim Duncan having Matt Bonner & Oberto. That's likely made a HUGE difference in the toll their bodies have taken from all the banging and board work.

Another reason: Dirk's teams have made first round exits 4 of the past 5 years.

Another reason: Dirk's teams have made it to the NBA finals once

Another reason: Dirk's teams have made it to the WCF once

Another reason: Dirk plays on the perimeter

etc, etc.

[TJastal]

Another reason: Dirk's teams have made first round exits 4 of the past 5 years.

Another reason: Dirk's teams have made it to the NBA finals once

Another reason: Dirk's teams have made it to the WCF once

Another reason: Dirk plays on the perimeter

etc, etc.

Yup yup. All good points too.

[Manufan909]

One reason: He's had Tyson Chandler & Erick Dampier watching his back for the past 4-5 years.

Compare with Tim Duncan having Matt Bonner & Oberto. That's likely made a HUGE difference in the toll their bodies have taken from all the banging and board work.

Implying Dirk bangs is like implying Shaq plays with finesse, or KG is the humble, silent type. You just end up looking stark raving mad.

And Agloco beat me to pointing out the utter fail in this post, but whatevz.

[TJastal]

Implying Dirk bangs is like implying Shaq plays with finesse, or KG is the humble, silent type. You just end up looking stark raving mad.

And Agloco beat me to pointing out the utter fail in this post, but whatevz.

I didn't imply anything of that nature.

I said Dirk's comrade's in arms did all the banging for him while Duncan was forced to do most of the dirty work alone while Bonner played hopscotch around the paint.

If the two players could have theoretically swapped teammates I guarantee you Dirk would have been forced to sack up and play defense and his scoring would have been significantly less and his body more banged up by now.

[UnWantedTheory]

I think Tony and RJ's lack of production of effort plus a total team effort with turnovers had more to do with the loss last night.

[Jason R]

Dirk's game isn't traditionally back to the basket, get it in the paint. He does that sometimes, and has actually made his team better for it when he has, but he's more comfortable outside. That makes for less wear and tear on the joints.

[TD 21]

This article does not attribute the loss to an excessive number of minutes played by a certain ginger-haired sandwich eater. Color me skeptical.

Who'd have thought the coach, not health, lack of a wing stopper, a true second big, etc., would be the biggest impediment to winning the championship this season? It's clear he's going to be.

He's just not going to play Duncan and Splitter together. He'll probably do it for a short stretch or two each game against the Lakers (and even then, he'd only do it because the Lakers will flat out embarrass this team if he doesn't, so he'll basically be shamed into doing it). He won't do it at all against the Mavs. The Spurs have enough talent, experience and savvy to basically out talent and out execute the Mavs and win despite their coach, but that won't cut it against the Lakers.

If Blair plays at all against the Lakers and Bonner is utilized as the second or third big, this team has no shot.

[MaNu4Tres]

Spurs don't need Bonner's ability to spread the floor in order to score.
This isn't 2008, where the offensive talent level was one of the worst in the league. ( Mason being the 3rd leading scorer--excluding Manu of course since he was out due to injury for a good portion of the year).

This is 2010 and the Spurs have enough talent to put up 100+ points up a game without Bonner's ability to spread the floor. Yet Pop's mindset is still stuck in 2008, where he obviously believes this team needs Bonner's spread the floor ability in order to score. I just don't get it. Pop finally has the personnel in the front-court ( Splitter) to finally have an interior defensive identity, yet he still values spreading the floor on the offensive end over rebounding and interior defense (which has been the Spurs' Achilles heal the past 3 years). It really is fucking mind boggling.

[ShoogarBear]

Dirk has already missed three shots in the first six minutes against the Heat. :pctoss

[TIMMYD!]

Dirk has already missed three shots in the first six minutes against the Heat. :pctoss

He usually shoots twice as well against us so it's not that big of a surprise.

[SenorSpur]

It's almost like Pop is so far removed from the days of Robinson, as well as the luxury of having a true 2 footers to pair along the frontline, that he doesn't know what to do with the new 7-foot addition to his roster.

[ElNono]

Spurs don't need Bonner's ability to spread the floor in order to score.
This isn't 2008, where the offensive talent level was one of the worst in the league. ( Mason being the 3rd leading scorer--excluding Manu of course since he was out due to injury for a good portion of the year).

This is 2010 and the Spurs have enough talent to put up 100+ points up a game without Bonner's ability to spread the floor. Yet Pop's mindset is still stuck in 2008, where he obviously believes this team needs Bonner's spread the floor ability in order to score. I just don't get it. Pop finally has the personnel in the front-court ( Splitter) to finally have an interior defensive identity, yet he still values spreading the floor on the offensive end over rebounding and interior defense (which has been the Spurs' Achilles heal the past 3 years). It really is fucking mind boggling.

Even last season when he was down for a good portion of it Duncan had no problem scoring, or the Spurs finding ways to win. Ditto for this season.
The spreading the floor aspect is welcome, but far from the importance that some people like to attribute to it around this place.

[TD 21]

Spurs don't need Bonner's ability to spread the floor in order to score.
This isn't 2008, where the offensive talent level was one of the worst in the league. ( Mason being the 3rd leading scorer--excluding Manu of course since he was out due to injury for a good portion of the year).

This is 2010 and the Spurs have enough talent to put up 100+ points up a game without Bonner's ability to spread the floor. Yet Pop's mindset is still stuck in 2008, where he obviously believes this team needs Bonner's spread the floor ability in order to score. I just don't get it. Pop finally has the personnel in the front-court ( Splitter) to finally have an interior defensive identity, yet he still values spreading the floor on the offensive end over rebounding and interior defense (which has been the Spurs' Achilles heal the past 3 years). It really is fucking mind boggling.

What's worse, is that the Spurs won their championships in large part because of interior defense. You'd think no one would value it more than Pop, who's seen firsthand more than any other coach in the past twenty seasons (at least) the value it can have.

Yet it's as if that '06 series to the Mavs changed him forever. Why, I don't know. Despite having less individual talent than the Mavs and being the victim of some of the worst officiating in recent memory, they were still in position to win that series in the dying seconds of game seven. Inexplicably, it's as if, in his mind, the Spurs were the Suns to the Mavs Spurs.

[Mav-elous Man]

I still wonder how Dirk is able to play like 40 minutes a night at the age of 32 and still be ready for the Playoffs. Crazy stuff.


May people don't realize this but Dirk is tough as nails. A real iron man. He works his ass off in the gym. He is the first to show up and the last to leave. A well conditioned athlete.