GSH
05-25-2005, 04:57 PM
Well, boys and girls. We have a little time in between games, so how about some stats? Boutons and AHF always have something brilliant to say about my posts. The last time, it had to do with the 20 and 21 point first quarters that the Spurs have slapped on the Suns. This was one of the comments that followed:
I've seen many game where the Suns start slow, down at the half by a handful of points, but keep it close, then the other team goes a bit cold in the 4th, and Suns win by few.
You need to look at ALL the Suns game for appx 20-pt qtrs,not just the Spurs games.
Okay... I did look at all the other Suns' games. If any of that is correct, it will be right there in the numbers.
The Suns start out slow? For them, that would probably be less than 24 points in a quarter. How often do they do that? They did it twice against Dallas - 22 first quarter points on May 11 and May 15. Before that? The Suns hadn't started out w/ less than 24 points in a quarter since Mar 25, against Miami. And before that, Feb 17 - against Dallas. If you leave out the games where Nash didn't play (I think we can all agree it is a different team w/o him) it happened once in the month of January. (Jan. 2, against Portland) In December it happened twice: back-to-back against Utah and Seattle. In December, when the team was just taking shape, it happened 5 times: Chicago, Cleveland, New Orleans, Dallas, and Lakers. So unless you want to go back to the first month of the season, I wouldn't exactly say that the Suns have a tendency to start off slowly.
But what about starts that are slow for Phoenix, but pretty good for other teams? (Say 24-25 points?) How often do the Suns start out that "slowly"? Well, since the beginning of the season, they have averaged 2 games per month where they scored as "few" as 24-25 points in the first quarter. Now 24-25 points is not exactly starting out slowly. But two games a month - a total of 10 games? Not exactly an overwhelming trend. (And four of the teams that did it to them were Denver, Detroit, Sacramento, and San Antonio.)
I think we can put the first silly comment to bed. Let's move on to the second.
So how about the Suns being down a handfull (5 points or more, right?) at the half, and coming back to win the game. They were down to Dallas by that much twice - they lost both of those games. Before that, in March, they were down 6 to Miami - but they lost that game too. It happened three times in January, when Nash was out - the Suns lost all three of those games. In December they were down 7 to San Antonio at the half - but somehow San Antonio held on for the win. But finally I found one... way back on Dec. 7 the Suns were down 5 points to Golden State at the half and came back to win the game. That's it. It happened one time all season. (I didn't bother to list the last game of the season where the Suns played all their subs, were down by 14 at the half, and lost by 25. I mention it only so that no smartass says that my stats are bad.) It looks to me like being up on the Suns by 5 or more at the half is a pretty good way to win the game.
So how about games where the Suns were down at the half, but less than 5 points, and come back to win? They were down by 4 to Minnesota, and 1 to Golden State, but lost both times - those games don't count. They were down by less than 5 to Denver, Sacramento, Dallas, and Orlando, and squeezed out a 1 or 2 point victory. They were down by 1-4 to Utah, NY, NJ, Lakers, and Clippers, and won those games by 5-8 points. Based on that, if the Spurs are up at the half... even by one point... I like their chances of holding on for a win. I think they are just that much tougher in the fourth quarter than Denver, Dallas, Sacramento, or Orlando. And a lot tougher than those other teams. (So how important are those 20 and 21 point first quarters? I don't know. I'd say pretty damned important.)
Second silly comment put to bed. Next.
And finally, since Boutons said that I should look at every quarter in the season where the Suns scored 24 or less - I did. I don't think it came out the way he expected, though.
There were a total of 59 games (77 quarters in all) where the Suns scored less than 24 points in a quarter. Fortunately for the Suns, most of the time it was because the game was already such a blowout that they put in their subs, who simply don't score as many points as their starters. I didn't count those games, since it had nothing to do with the other team playing defense, or with the outcome of the game. (I also discounted the games where Nash or Marion were out with injuries.)
That left a total of 23 games (33 quarters) where the Suns scored less than 24 points in a quarter. The Suns lost 13 of those games (19 quarters < 24 points). The Suns won the other 10 games (14 quarters < 24 points), but most of them not very convincingly. Their margin of victory was: O/T, 1, 2, 3, 6, 6, 7 in seven of the 10 games.
When I put all that together, it says to me that the Suns need to score fairly large in all 4 quarters to be confident in a win. When they have even one off quarter, their winning percentage sucks: 23 games, 13 losses, and 4 wins of 3 points or less. If the Spurs hold the Suns to less than 24 points in a quarter, I like their chances. If they hold them to less than 24 points in 2 quarters, like last night, I really like their chances.
In the playoffs, the Suns have had 7 games with sub-24 point quarters. They have lost 4 of them. In the series with the Mavs and Spurs, they have lost 4 out of 5. In almost all of their losses this season, the Suns have had one bad quarter, and three pretty damned good ones.
One final note: the Suns have (legitimately) been held to less than 24 points in 41 quarters (regular season and playoffs together). Of those 41 quarters, 6 belong to the Spurs, 6 to Dallas, 5 to Memphis, and 4 to Houston. It's no coincidence. They are all solid teams that made the playoffs, and they are al among the teams that beat the Suns this year.
Third silly comment... safely in bed.
I'm sure the two brain surgeons will vomit out their usual insults, and say that it means nothing. I don't think they'll get too much traction this time. The numbers are pretty overwhelming. If the Spurs can put in just one quarter in each game in that 20-21 point range, I think the sweep will follow.
I've seen many game where the Suns start slow, down at the half by a handful of points, but keep it close, then the other team goes a bit cold in the 4th, and Suns win by few.
You need to look at ALL the Suns game for appx 20-pt qtrs,not just the Spurs games.
Okay... I did look at all the other Suns' games. If any of that is correct, it will be right there in the numbers.
The Suns start out slow? For them, that would probably be less than 24 points in a quarter. How often do they do that? They did it twice against Dallas - 22 first quarter points on May 11 and May 15. Before that? The Suns hadn't started out w/ less than 24 points in a quarter since Mar 25, against Miami. And before that, Feb 17 - against Dallas. If you leave out the games where Nash didn't play (I think we can all agree it is a different team w/o him) it happened once in the month of January. (Jan. 2, against Portland) In December it happened twice: back-to-back against Utah and Seattle. In December, when the team was just taking shape, it happened 5 times: Chicago, Cleveland, New Orleans, Dallas, and Lakers. So unless you want to go back to the first month of the season, I wouldn't exactly say that the Suns have a tendency to start off slowly.
But what about starts that are slow for Phoenix, but pretty good for other teams? (Say 24-25 points?) How often do the Suns start out that "slowly"? Well, since the beginning of the season, they have averaged 2 games per month where they scored as "few" as 24-25 points in the first quarter. Now 24-25 points is not exactly starting out slowly. But two games a month - a total of 10 games? Not exactly an overwhelming trend. (And four of the teams that did it to them were Denver, Detroit, Sacramento, and San Antonio.)
I think we can put the first silly comment to bed. Let's move on to the second.
So how about the Suns being down a handfull (5 points or more, right?) at the half, and coming back to win the game. They were down to Dallas by that much twice - they lost both of those games. Before that, in March, they were down 6 to Miami - but they lost that game too. It happened three times in January, when Nash was out - the Suns lost all three of those games. In December they were down 7 to San Antonio at the half - but somehow San Antonio held on for the win. But finally I found one... way back on Dec. 7 the Suns were down 5 points to Golden State at the half and came back to win the game. That's it. It happened one time all season. (I didn't bother to list the last game of the season where the Suns played all their subs, were down by 14 at the half, and lost by 25. I mention it only so that no smartass says that my stats are bad.) It looks to me like being up on the Suns by 5 or more at the half is a pretty good way to win the game.
So how about games where the Suns were down at the half, but less than 5 points, and come back to win? They were down by 4 to Minnesota, and 1 to Golden State, but lost both times - those games don't count. They were down by less than 5 to Denver, Sacramento, Dallas, and Orlando, and squeezed out a 1 or 2 point victory. They were down by 1-4 to Utah, NY, NJ, Lakers, and Clippers, and won those games by 5-8 points. Based on that, if the Spurs are up at the half... even by one point... I like their chances of holding on for a win. I think they are just that much tougher in the fourth quarter than Denver, Dallas, Sacramento, or Orlando. And a lot tougher than those other teams. (So how important are those 20 and 21 point first quarters? I don't know. I'd say pretty damned important.)
Second silly comment put to bed. Next.
And finally, since Boutons said that I should look at every quarter in the season where the Suns scored 24 or less - I did. I don't think it came out the way he expected, though.
There were a total of 59 games (77 quarters in all) where the Suns scored less than 24 points in a quarter. Fortunately for the Suns, most of the time it was because the game was already such a blowout that they put in their subs, who simply don't score as many points as their starters. I didn't count those games, since it had nothing to do with the other team playing defense, or with the outcome of the game. (I also discounted the games where Nash or Marion were out with injuries.)
That left a total of 23 games (33 quarters) where the Suns scored less than 24 points in a quarter. The Suns lost 13 of those games (19 quarters < 24 points). The Suns won the other 10 games (14 quarters < 24 points), but most of them not very convincingly. Their margin of victory was: O/T, 1, 2, 3, 6, 6, 7 in seven of the 10 games.
When I put all that together, it says to me that the Suns need to score fairly large in all 4 quarters to be confident in a win. When they have even one off quarter, their winning percentage sucks: 23 games, 13 losses, and 4 wins of 3 points or less. If the Spurs hold the Suns to less than 24 points in a quarter, I like their chances. If they hold them to less than 24 points in 2 quarters, like last night, I really like their chances.
In the playoffs, the Suns have had 7 games with sub-24 point quarters. They have lost 4 of them. In the series with the Mavs and Spurs, they have lost 4 out of 5. In almost all of their losses this season, the Suns have had one bad quarter, and three pretty damned good ones.
One final note: the Suns have (legitimately) been held to less than 24 points in 41 quarters (regular season and playoffs together). Of those 41 quarters, 6 belong to the Spurs, 6 to Dallas, 5 to Memphis, and 4 to Houston. It's no coincidence. They are all solid teams that made the playoffs, and they are al among the teams that beat the Suns this year.
Third silly comment... safely in bed.
I'm sure the two brain surgeons will vomit out their usual insults, and say that it means nothing. I don't think they'll get too much traction this time. The numbers are pretty overwhelming. If the Spurs can put in just one quarter in each game in that 20-21 point range, I think the sweep will follow.