I have an honest question about the "tax cuts"

[Stringer_Bell]

This is not a "GOTCHA!" thread. I'm out of the country and haven't been able to intake the news like I would if I had Fox/CNN/MSNBC running in the background for 2 hours an evening.

I'd like to know
- How long will it take for the tax cuts extended for people making $250K a year to have an impact on unemployment?
- If nothing helpful to the economy occurs should we blame Obama, the GOP, or government in general?
- Has the GOP or Dems given any indication what programs or entitlements they are willing to make to balance the budget? I recall the media making a big deal about the $700Bil the government would lose out on if tax cuts for the rich were extended.
- Is there a way to measure how much of an impact the Bush tax cuts have helped the economy over the last SIX years? Maybe a link to some graphs or something, I'm curious if the GOP's stance on extending the cuts can be backed up by empirical evidence.

Yep, that's pretty much it. Thanks in advance for any answers given. :toast

[boutons_deux]

extending the tax cuts for the wealthy will have no impact on employment. The wealthy are seeking higher returns, like gambling on Wall St or overseas in higher growth markets, commodities trading, etc, or in IPOs/LBOs where they are "preferred" customers for the investment bankers, than they obtain in industry.

The Bankster's Great Depression is 100% due to financial sector and the Repugs/conservatives who deregulated the financial sector.

why only 6 years? dubya's tax cuts were forced through with reconciliation and needed dickhead's vote to break a 50-50 Senate deadlock.

biggest impact of tax cugts is that wealth (and power) has been redistributed to the top, while jobs have stagnated along with real household income. The tax cuts effectively did nothing for the non-wealthy American.

The GOPs stance pitting unemployment benefits against continued low tax on the wealthy is all lies, not evidence. It's all faith-based bullshit, that sheeple, duped Americans suck down covered bacon and cheese.

[RandomGuy]

This is not a "GOTCHA!" thread. I'm out of the country and haven't been able to intake the news like I would if I had Fox/CNN/MSNBC running in the background for 2 hours an evening.

I'd like to know
1)- How long will it take for the tax cuts extended for people making $250K a year to have an impact on unemployment?
2)- If nothing helpful to the economy occurs should we blame Obama, the GOP, or government in general?
3)- Has the GOP or Dems given any indication what programs or entitlements they are willing to make to balance the budget? I recall the media making a big deal about the $700Bil the government would lose out on if tax cuts for the rich were extended.
4)- Is there a way to measure how much of an impact the Bush tax cuts have helped the economy over the last SIX years? Maybe a link to some graphs or something, I'm curious if the GOP's stance on extending the cuts can be backed up by empirical evidence.

Yep, that's pretty much it. Thanks in advance for any answers given. :toast

1) Tax cuts for people above $250k income likely will have virtually no effect on unemployment, by any honest reading of economics.
2) The blame gets spread around a lot to each of the parties you have named, but the wider economy does what it does and the government has less effect than most people think, so blaming them for not doing much is kind of pointless. The government has not taken any real radical steps to meddle in the current economy (other than stabilizing the financial system a couple of years back)
3)The president put together a commission to study what needed to be done to reduce the debt/deficit. It put together a proposal that would accomplish that. Unfortunately, that proposal, while remarkably honest and what a real grown-up would do, has things in it that are downright hated by the left and the right, so it is DOA as far as being politically feasible. That is how you know it is probably the right thing to do.
4) The only study I know of regarding the overall effect of the Bush tax cuts posits a very very tiny overall effect, that, in my opinion, was far outweighed by the extra borrowing required. I might be able to dig that study up if you want.

[CosmicCowboy]

This is not a "GOTCHA!" thread. I'm out of the country and haven't been able to intake the news like I would if I had Fox/CNN/MSNBC running in the background for 2 hours an evening.

I'd like to know
- How long will it take for the tax cuts extended for people making $250K a year to have an impact on unemployment?
- If nothing helpful to the economy occurs should we blame Obama, the GOP, or government in general?
If nothing helpful to the economy occurs should we blame Obama, the GOP, or government in general?
- Is there a way to measure how much of an impact the Bush tax cuts have helped the economy over the last SIX years? Maybe a link to some graphs or something, I'm curious if the GOP's stance on extending the cuts can be backed up by empirical evidence.

Yep, that's pretty much it. Thanks in advance for any answers given. :toast

Taking them in order:


How long will it take for the tax cuts extended for people making $250K a year to have an impact on unemployment?

The answer to this question is as fuzzy as the "Two million jobs created or saved" by the stimulus...the issue is hard to quantify.

IMHO the big difference will be in your growing small businesses...it's quite common for them to be structured as SubS, meaning all income is not taxed at the corporate level but flows down to the personal tax bracket...As for anyone, saving money is hard, and if you are trying to grow a business it requires retaining earnings so you can buy trucks, equipment, hire people, etc. Raise their taxes another 5% on top of the 35% they already pay and it could easily stunt job growth.


If nothing helpful to the economy occurs should we blame Obama, the GOP, or government in general?

I will blame the global economy and band width. Any job that can be done at a desk can be outsourced to another country. A lot of those lost jobs are never coming back.

[CosmicCowboy]

)- Has the GOP or Dems given any indication what programs or entitlements they are willing to make to balance the budget? I recall the media making a big deal about the $700Bil the government would lose out on if tax cuts for the rich were extended.

I personally don't think either party has the will to address the root of the problem which is entitlement programs that have already been enacted. It's the electric third rail of American politics and will politically kill anyone that touches it.

[Stringer_Bell]

why only 6 years? dubya's tax cuts were forced through with reconciliation and needed dickhead's vote to break a 50-50 Senate deadlock.

The tax cuts passed in 2001, I assume 2 years into them and up to last year (2003-2009) would show some good data since 2010 would be the year all the economic uncertainty on the tax cuts started to take over the media and thus influence the economy in how people save and spend money across the board.


4) The only study I know of regarding the overall effect of the Bush tax cuts posits a very very tiny overall effect, that, in my opinion, was far outweighed by the extra borrowing required. I might be able to dig that study up if you want.

Thanks for the offer to dig it up, I'll just take your word for it that there was little effect since that's what I assumed anyway but wanted to know if anyone knew differently.


IMHO the big difference will be in your growing small businesses...it's quite common for them to be structured as SubS, meaning all income is not taxed at the corporate level but flows down to the personal tax bracket...As for anyone, saving money is hard, and if you are trying to grow a business it requires retaining earnings so you can buy trucks, equipment, hire people, etc. Raise their taxes another 5% on top of the 35% they already pay and it could easily stunt job growth.

This definitely has to be the main selling point from the GOP standpoint, but considering how many small businesses actually succeed...I don't think there's enough of an imperative to extend them but then again I'm not looking a person affected by it in the face and hearing their story.

[boutons_deux]

Only 3% of small business owners make over $250K, and if they can't figure out how to spend their profits on investments and salaries, then so be it.