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12-10-2010, 07:06 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-101210&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dholling er_john%26page%3dPERDiem-101210
Derrick Rose is a surefire All-Star, but he's not yet an elite point guard. Here's why.
Derrick Rose (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3456) doesn't draw fouls.
That's about all the negativity I can muster toward him in an impressive first quarter of the season, yet it remains an important distinction in evaluating his place among the league's elite.
Let me explain.
For starters, there is no question that Rose is aboard the fast track to superstardom. The third-year guard played well enough to make the All-Star team a year ago, and this season he's a no-brainer pick. He ranks fourth in the league in scoring and ninth in assists. At times he's been electric and unstoppable, such as his 14-point outburst during an 18-0 run in Houston that broke open a close game in the fourth quarter.
Moreover, his success has proven fruitful for his employers. The Bulls are eighth in the Power Rankings (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings), despite a brutal early schedule and free-agent pickup Carlos Boozer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1703) playing in five of their first 20 games. The Playoff Odds (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds) see them winning 49 contests and the Central Division crown.
Unquestionably, their catalyst has been Rose. While he's shooting a lot, it's not just a question of taking more shots. He's also added some tools to his repertoire. Most notably, he's stroking the 3-pointer more confidently and, so far, more accurately. Rose attempted 132 triples in his first two pro seasons and didn't shoot it much more often for Team USA this summer, but in the current season he's trying over four 3-pointers a game and converting at a respectable 37.1 percent clip. It's the perfect response to opponents' preferred strategy of defending him by going under screens and conceding the jumper.
They concede that J, of course, because Rose is such a great finisher around the basket. He's shooting 58.6 percent in the basket area this year, according to Hoopdata.com, and has been in that range his entire career. Moreover, he gets there often -- nearly six times a game for his career.
All of those skills should make him a lethal force and a legit MVP candidate. And they would ... if he would draw some fouls.
Rose, however, isn't in the elite category if we look at PER, Estimated Wins Added or any other analytic metric. He's sixth among point guards (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pg/sort/VORPe) in estimated wins added (EWA), right behind Raymond Felton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2753) and a loooong way behind leaders Russell Westbrook (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3468), Chris Paul (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2779) and Deron Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2798).
In PER, it's a similar story -- sixth among point guards (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pg), 19th overall (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics). Long-time Bulls fans will no doubt be shocked to see him listed behind Shannon Brown (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2992) and Tyrus Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3032).
And while that state of affairs is likely temporary, the reason behind it is more permanent. The reason, as you might have surmised already, is that Rose doesn't draw fouls.
Rose's shooting percentages -- 45.6 percent overall, 37.1 percent on 3s -- are solid for a point guard. But his True Shooting Percentage (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/trueShootingPct) -- 53.3 -- is rather ordinary. Of the league's 62 qualifying point guards, 32 outrank him in that category, including all the ones he's compared to in the "best point guard" debates (see chart).
Compare head-to-head against the league's elite point guards and the difference jumps out. Despite all his forays to the rim, Rose averages 5.6 free throw attempts per game on just over 21 field goal attempts; his rate of .26 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is well below the league average of .32.
As with the TS% above, 32 of the league's point guards outrank him in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That list includes his backup (C.J. Watson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3277), 0.28); jump-shooting specialists such as Cleveland's Daniel Gibson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3006)Mike Conley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3195); and a whole host of players who aren't nearly as good.
Against the elite, he's completely outclassed in this category. Westbrook gets to the line nearly nine times a game, or once for every two field goal attempts; this difference accounts for nearly the entirety of Westbrook's advantages over Rose and places him comfortably ahead in TS% and PER. Paul takes nearly as many free throws on half as many shot attempts.
Williams also shoots dramatically less than Rose but gets to the stripe nearly seven times a game. Even Tony Parker (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1015) -- a slasher, whose M.O. is to sidestep the hit and make the shot instead -- gets to the line at a higher rate than Rose.
The only elite point guard who gets to the line less frequently than Rose is Rajon Rondo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3026), and that's because he's actively terrified of having to shoot free throws. The punch line? Rondo still has a better TS% than Rose.
Unlike Rondo, Rose has no reason to fear the stripe because he converts at a respectable 77 percent clip. He just doesn't earn himself a lot of trips.
I've heard a variety of explanations for Rose's relative lack of freebies. The "no respect from the refs" theory is the one most often heard in the upper reaches of Illinois, but it's also the most suspect. Several less-experienced players have had little trouble getting to the foul line at a more frequent clip. Rookie John Wall (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=4237), for instance, is the one whose physical skills are most often compared to Rose's, and he's had no trouble getting to the line with far greater frequency.
Moreover, it's not like Rose is some unknown rookie. In his third season as Chicago's featured offensive performer, I'd say the officials are deeply familiar with his playing style.
No, the unfortunate fact is this: The same things that make Rose so watchable also conspire against him. He's so smooth, so graceful and so explosive that it's fairly easy for him to float past opponents and drop in a layup or to launch his unusually-effective 10-foot floater or to pull up for the J while an opponent watches helplessly from the other side of the screen. Alas, none of those maneuvers get him to the line, and the next time Rose willfully draws contact to force his way there will be a first.
Contrast that, for instance, with Westbrook's bull-in-a-china-shop approach, and there's no question which one is easier on the eyes. Rose's tactic is less effective on the scoreboard because Westbrook is taking twice as many foul shots every night.
Don't get me wrong, Rose is a spectacular performer and a surefire All-Star. If you're making a list of players you'd pay money to see play, there's no question he's in the top 10. All those graceful plays I just mentioned are far more entertaining than watching somebody shoot two flat-footed 15-footers from the line while the other nine players stand and watch.
Still, it's a less effective way to win basketball games. It seems mundane, as though we're nitpicking, to bemoan Rose's lack of free throws, but it's a notable shortcoming when comparing Rose to the other elite players at his position. Until he earns more whistles, Rose won't ascend to the top of the league's point guard mountain.
Derrick Rose is a surefire All-Star, but he's not yet an elite point guard. Here's why.
Derrick Rose (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3456) doesn't draw fouls.
That's about all the negativity I can muster toward him in an impressive first quarter of the season, yet it remains an important distinction in evaluating his place among the league's elite.
Let me explain.
For starters, there is no question that Rose is aboard the fast track to superstardom. The third-year guard played well enough to make the All-Star team a year ago, and this season he's a no-brainer pick. He ranks fourth in the league in scoring and ninth in assists. At times he's been electric and unstoppable, such as his 14-point outburst during an 18-0 run in Houston that broke open a close game in the fourth quarter.
Moreover, his success has proven fruitful for his employers. The Bulls are eighth in the Power Rankings (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings), despite a brutal early schedule and free-agent pickup Carlos Boozer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1703) playing in five of their first 20 games. The Playoff Odds (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds) see them winning 49 contests and the Central Division crown.
Unquestionably, their catalyst has been Rose. While he's shooting a lot, it's not just a question of taking more shots. He's also added some tools to his repertoire. Most notably, he's stroking the 3-pointer more confidently and, so far, more accurately. Rose attempted 132 triples in his first two pro seasons and didn't shoot it much more often for Team USA this summer, but in the current season he's trying over four 3-pointers a game and converting at a respectable 37.1 percent clip. It's the perfect response to opponents' preferred strategy of defending him by going under screens and conceding the jumper.
They concede that J, of course, because Rose is such a great finisher around the basket. He's shooting 58.6 percent in the basket area this year, according to Hoopdata.com, and has been in that range his entire career. Moreover, he gets there often -- nearly six times a game for his career.
All of those skills should make him a lethal force and a legit MVP candidate. And they would ... if he would draw some fouls.
Rose, however, isn't in the elite category if we look at PER, Estimated Wins Added or any other analytic metric. He's sixth among point guards (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pg/sort/VORPe) in estimated wins added (EWA), right behind Raymond Felton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2753) and a loooong way behind leaders Russell Westbrook (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3468), Chris Paul (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2779) and Deron Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2798).
In PER, it's a similar story -- sixth among point guards (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pg), 19th overall (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics). Long-time Bulls fans will no doubt be shocked to see him listed behind Shannon Brown (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2992) and Tyrus Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3032).
And while that state of affairs is likely temporary, the reason behind it is more permanent. The reason, as you might have surmised already, is that Rose doesn't draw fouls.
Rose's shooting percentages -- 45.6 percent overall, 37.1 percent on 3s -- are solid for a point guard. But his True Shooting Percentage (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/trueShootingPct) -- 53.3 -- is rather ordinary. Of the league's 62 qualifying point guards, 32 outrank him in that category, including all the ones he's compared to in the "best point guard" debates (see chart).
Compare head-to-head against the league's elite point guards and the difference jumps out. Despite all his forays to the rim, Rose averages 5.6 free throw attempts per game on just over 21 field goal attempts; his rate of .26 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is well below the league average of .32.
As with the TS% above, 32 of the league's point guards outrank him in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That list includes his backup (C.J. Watson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3277), 0.28); jump-shooting specialists such as Cleveland's Daniel Gibson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3006)Mike Conley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3195); and a whole host of players who aren't nearly as good.
Against the elite, he's completely outclassed in this category. Westbrook gets to the line nearly nine times a game, or once for every two field goal attempts; this difference accounts for nearly the entirety of Westbrook's advantages over Rose and places him comfortably ahead in TS% and PER. Paul takes nearly as many free throws on half as many shot attempts.
Williams also shoots dramatically less than Rose but gets to the stripe nearly seven times a game. Even Tony Parker (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1015) -- a slasher, whose M.O. is to sidestep the hit and make the shot instead -- gets to the line at a higher rate than Rose.
The only elite point guard who gets to the line less frequently than Rose is Rajon Rondo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3026), and that's because he's actively terrified of having to shoot free throws. The punch line? Rondo still has a better TS% than Rose.
Unlike Rondo, Rose has no reason to fear the stripe because he converts at a respectable 77 percent clip. He just doesn't earn himself a lot of trips.
I've heard a variety of explanations for Rose's relative lack of freebies. The "no respect from the refs" theory is the one most often heard in the upper reaches of Illinois, but it's also the most suspect. Several less-experienced players have had little trouble getting to the foul line at a more frequent clip. Rookie John Wall (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=4237), for instance, is the one whose physical skills are most often compared to Rose's, and he's had no trouble getting to the line with far greater frequency.
Moreover, it's not like Rose is some unknown rookie. In his third season as Chicago's featured offensive performer, I'd say the officials are deeply familiar with his playing style.
No, the unfortunate fact is this: The same things that make Rose so watchable also conspire against him. He's so smooth, so graceful and so explosive that it's fairly easy for him to float past opponents and drop in a layup or to launch his unusually-effective 10-foot floater or to pull up for the J while an opponent watches helplessly from the other side of the screen. Alas, none of those maneuvers get him to the line, and the next time Rose willfully draws contact to force his way there will be a first.
Contrast that, for instance, with Westbrook's bull-in-a-china-shop approach, and there's no question which one is easier on the eyes. Rose's tactic is less effective on the scoreboard because Westbrook is taking twice as many foul shots every night.
Don't get me wrong, Rose is a spectacular performer and a surefire All-Star. If you're making a list of players you'd pay money to see play, there's no question he's in the top 10. All those graceful plays I just mentioned are far more entertaining than watching somebody shoot two flat-footed 15-footers from the line while the other nine players stand and watch.
Still, it's a less effective way to win basketball games. It seems mundane, as though we're nitpicking, to bemoan Rose's lack of free throws, but it's a notable shortcoming when comparing Rose to the other elite players at his position. Until he earns more whistles, Rose won't ascend to the top of the league's point guard mountain.